Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[Stormpc]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

lol this is the first time ive ever opened this thread. didnt even know it existed. Good luck boys!

Damn it. We were trying to hide from everyone. We come down here to escape.

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

lol this is the first time ive ever opened this thread. didnt even know it existed. Good luck boys!

You jinxed it. The storm has  vamoosed.

[wasnow215]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

lol this is the first time ive ever opened this thread. didnt even know it existed. Good luck boys!

It’s a true honor to have you here man!! Thanks for checking in!!

Down here btw we were originators of “How much for Short Pump?” Hahahaha!!

[TampaMan]

We apparently don't matter to the Mid Atlantic in the main forum, that's why we are here. 

[JB Fins]

It should be mandatory for anybody in the "main" thread complaining about their lack of snow or how this winter has sucked, to spend a few minutes here.  It will give them a bit of perspective and allow them to appreciate what they have received.

And if one of them says, move north or Richmond should not get snow blah, blah, blah, I will hit them with a sock full of nickels.

[ldub23]

Pattern change  better get going. Virtually  no snow  in the eastern 2/3rd of the  nation 

 

[JFLETCHER]

35 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Pattern change  better get going. Virtually  no snow  in the eastern 2/3rd of the  nation 

 

Good call. I'm very skeptical of this "epic" pattern. You can have the setup all you want but if the STJ isn't producing, you may get a minor event here or there. But the models keep teasing folks and some keep buying in.

[RIC Airport]

 

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Pattern change  better get going. Virtually  no snow  in the eastern 2/3rd of the  nation 

@ldub23why do you keep posting the 384hr GFS and using that as justification to inject negativity into the thread? I've told you numerous times, both publicly and privately about why this isn't a best practice and you keep doing it. 

1 hour ago, JFLETCHER said:

Good call. I'm very skeptical of this "epic" pattern. You can have the setup all you want but if the STJ isn't producing, you may get a minor event here or there. But the models keep teasing folks and some keep buying in.

The STJ has been producing all winter, hence the record rainfall we've seen since the week before Thanksgiving. The STJ isn't the issue. There are other mechanisms to learn about before making such declaration.  

I also don't think people are "buying in", many of us have been at this long enough to know how things work. Personally, if I didn't want to see what the models showed a week or two in advance, I wouldn't be a part of this community and would either look at the forecast on my phone app or simply look out the window every day to see how the weather is. But, that isn't fun. 

[wasnow215]

2 hours ago, RVAman said:

We apparently don't matter to the Mid Atlantic in the main forum, that's why we are here. 

Lol I don’t get offended by that kind of stuff. Too many other things more important in life.

[wasnow215]

10 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

 

@ldub23why do you keep posting the 384hr GFS and using that as justification to inject negativity into the thread? I've told you numerous times, both publicly and privately about why this isn't a best practice and you keep doing it. 

The STJ has been producing all winter, hence the record rainfall we've seen since the week before Thanksgiving. The STJ isn't the issue. There are other mechanisms to learn about before making such declaration.  

I also don't think people are "buying in", many of us have been at this long enough to know how things work. Personally, if I didn't want to see what the models showed a week or two in advance, I wouldn't be a part of this community and would either look at the forecast on my phone app or simply look out the window every day to see how the weather is. But, that isn't fun. 

100% @RIC Airport! Pattern changes and fantasy clown maps 16 days away have virtually nothing to do with each other.

[RIC Airport]

33 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Lol I don’t get offended by that kind of stuff. Too many other things more important in life.

There has always been that rivalry, but its gotten pretty bad over the years and sometimes it can get pretty toxic as if it can't possibly snow down here. And yes, that is why this thread exists, @Stormpc, @RVAman, @JB Fins.

 

30 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

100% @RIC Airport! Pattern changes and fantasy clown maps 16 days away have virtually nothing to do with each other.

Thank you. Besides, this is a snow board. That's what drives most of the traffic. If people are gonna be negative and not get into the day to day tracking of snow then I'm not sure you're gonna like it around here. Just look at your phone app or out the window every day to check the weather.

[JFLETCHER]

1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

 

@ldub23why do you keep posting the 384hr GFS and using that as justification to inject negativity into the thread? I've told you numerous times, both publicly and privately about why this isn't a best practice and you keep doing it. 

The STJ has been producing all winter, hence the record rainfall we've seen since the week before Thanksgiving. The STJ isn't the issue. There are other mechanisms to learn about before making such declaration.  

I also don't think people are "buying in", many of us have been at this long enough to know how things work. Personally, if I didn't want to see what the models showed a week or two in advance, I wouldn't be a part of this community and would either look at the forecast on my phone app or simply look out the window every day to see how the weather is. But, that isn't fun. 

I wasn't trying to be rude or anything. I truly appreciate all of the posts you are making. I was just referring to the models in general and how poor they have been as of late. Do I think there is a good pattern coming, I do. I just hope that we can all feast down here in Central Virginia and get a good one to go our way.

[TampaMan]

17 minutes ago, JFLETCHER said:

I wasn't trying to be rude or anything. I truly appreciate all of the posts you are making. I was just referring to the models in general and how poor they have been as of late. Do I think there is a good pattern coming, I do. I just hope that we can all feast down here in Central Virginia and get a good one to go our way.

I hope we feast and DC doesn't. Since we aren't a "snow climate".

[JFLETCHER]

17 minutes ago, RVAman said:

I hope we feast and DC doesn't. Since we aren't a "snow climate".

10-4 on that Sir.

[RIC Airport]

2 hours ago, JFLETCHER said:

I wasn't trying to be rude or anything. I truly appreciate all of the posts you are making. I was just referring to the models in general and how poor they have been as of late. Do I think there is a good pattern coming, I do. I just hope that we can all feast down here in Central Virginia and get a good one to go our way.

@JFLETCHER, no worries, and I didn't mean to come across that way. Admittedly, this winter has been a disappointment, and yes, the weeklies have overpromised and have underdelivered. But it's hard to see the day-to-day details when looking at the 500 MB anomaly maps. Anticipation is mainly from what history has told us, but sometimes things don't work out. So far, the PHL to DCA corridor has been the best place to be relative to average. Outside of that, most places are still struggling with snow. 

Look at the precip anomalies since early November. It's a shame we've had so little snow with all the moisture we've seen. But, the cold has been displaced in the central and southern plains while we've been skewed warm so far. 

 

[RIC Airport]

On 1/31/2024 at 5:55 PM, RIC Airport said:

There have been quite a few decent events mid to late month. I haven't gone through Norfolk's data yet, but here are Richmond's February snowstorms that delivered 4 inches or more since 1898. Quite a few events were close to making the list, so this doesn't exactly tell the whole story. I will post the Norfolk events at some other time and look at March as well.

February Snowstorms 4" or more at Richmond (since 1898)

5.0” February 26, 2015
7.2” February 16-17, 2015
5.8” February 12-13, 2014
4.0” February 19-20, 2012
6.6” February 5-6, 2010
8.3” February 16, 1996
4.0” February 26-27, 1993
5.3” February 23-24, 1989
7.6” February 18, 1989
5.3” February 16-17, 1987
17.7” February 10-11, 1983
6.6” February 27-28, 1982
4.2” February 13-14, 1982
4.7” February 9-10, 1980
10.9” February 18-19, 1979
6.4” February 7, 1979
4.4” February 19, 1972
4.0” February 17, 1972
5.3” February 2, 1972
4.9” February 17-18, 1967
6.4” February 9-10, 1967
5.6” February 6-7, 1967
6.6” February 14-15, 1965
7.3” February 28, 1964
5.3” February 26, 1963
8.9” February 13-14, 1960
6.3” February 15, 1958
5.6” February 26-27, 1952
5.4” February 24, 1952
4.5” February 10, 1948
10.1” January 31-February 1, 1948
9.2” February 19-20, 1947
12.6” February 7, 1936
8.0” February 25, 1934
4.7” February 4-5, 1933
4.6” February 20, 1914
4.7” February 13, 1914
4.1” February 7-8, 1909
4.2” February 27, 1906
6.1” February 10-11, 1904
9.7” February 15-17, 1902
5.4” February 16-18, 1900
16.3” February 11-14, 1899
4.0” February 6-7, 1899

As promised, here is the Norfolk list, beginning with the most recent.  I did 2 inches or more since 4 inches + was shorter than Richmond's. I'll probably do 2" or more for both cities for March, which I'll post in the coming days. Data was less kind after about 1990, and neither city has had much snow in February since 2015. 

February Snowstorms 2" or more at Norfolk (since 1891)

5.6” February 25-26, 2015
2.1” February 24, 2015
3.6” February 16, 2015
3.8” February 9-10, 2011
2.2” February 15-16, 2004
3.9” February 16, 1996
7.1” February 3-4, 1996
9.0” February 24, 1989
15.4” February 17-19, 1989
5.2” February 5-6, 1984
6.5” February 9-10, 1980
12.4” February 6-7, 1980
7.0” February 18-19, 1979
5.1” February 7, 1979
6.2” February 2, 1978
3.9” February 10, 1973
2.1” February 4-5, 1971
2.6” February 3-4, 1970
2.0” February 29, 1968
5.1” February 9-10, 1967
3.9” February 14, 1965
3.6” February 11-12, 1964
6.3” February 26-27, 1963
3.9” February 13, 1960
2.1” February 3, 1951
12.4” February 10-11, 1948
5.8” January 31-February 1, 1948
4.2” February 23, 1947
5.8” February 27-March 1, 1941
6.0” February 28, 1937
11.0” February 7, 1936
6.0” February 25, 1934
2.0” February 9, 1934
2.9” February 13-14, 1929
3.0” February 27, 1924
2.0” February 5, 1923
6.0” February 15, 1922
2.8” February 5-7, 1922
5.1” February 13-14, 1916
3.0” February 24, 1914
3.7” February 13-14, 1914
4.0” January 31-February 1, 1910
2.5” February 20, 1907
3.1” February 26, 1904
7.0” February 10-11, 1904
8.8” February 15-17, 1902
6.0” February 23-24, 1901
13.5” February 11-14, 1899
2.8” February 16-17, 1895
5.6” February 7-8, 1895

[RIC Airport]

Wakefield just sent out the January Summary. February may deliver way more snow, at least we hope. 

 

 

[Stormpc]

Just my quick two cents. It looks like everything is going according to plan. We knew it would get more favorable after February 10. Doesn't look like we'll sneak in any fluke before that or even a few days after. I still think this time next week we'll be tracking something around Valentine's Day or after. Progressively colder in Eastern Canada. Going to be a blocky situation. Can't really look at any of the operational runs right now. Nothing looks great on those and shouldn't. Patience. We are not running out of time. Yet. I think I'll start paying good attention after Sunday otherwise quick peeks at some of the ensembles and long range indicators and that's it. Enjoy the weekend SEVA/RVA friends.  

[Conway7305]

Agreed, Pattern change still on time for 15th, once all is digested, after the 18th is  when our chances will be best. Haven’t seen a pattern like this since 2016.   Weeklies continue to show favorable patten  progressing through mid March. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

16 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

As promised, here is the Norfolk list, beginning with the most recent.  I did 2 inches or more since 4 inches + was shorter than Richmond's. I'll probably do 2" or more for both cities for March, which I'll post in the coming days. Data was less kind after about 1990, and neither city has had much snow in February since 2015. 

February Snowstorms 2" or more at Norfolk (since 1891)

5.6” February 25-26, 2015
2.1” February 24, 2015
3.6” February 16, 2015
3.8” February 9-10, 2011
2.2” February 15-16, 2004
3.9” February 16, 1996
7.1” February 3-4, 1996
9.0” February 24, 1989
15.4” February 17-19, 1989
5.2” February 5-6, 1984
6.5” February 9-10, 1980
12.4” February 6-7, 1980
7.0” February 18-19, 1979
5.1” February 7, 1979
6.2” February 2, 1978
3.9” February 10, 1973
2.1” February 4-5, 1971
2.6” February 3-4, 1970
2.0” February 29, 1968
5.1” February 9-10, 1967
3.9” February 14, 1965
3.6” February 11-12, 1964
6.3” February 26-27, 1963
3.9” February 13, 1960
2.1” February 3, 1951
12.4” February 10-11, 1948
5.8” January 31-February 1, 1948
4.2” February 23, 1947
5.8” February 27-March 1, 1941
6.0” February 28, 1937
11.0” February 7, 1936
6.0” February 25, 1934
2.0” February 9, 1934
2.9” February 13-14, 1929
3.0” February 27, 1924
2.0” February 5, 1923
6.0” February 15, 1922
2.8” February 5-7, 1922
5.1” February 13-14, 1916
3.0” February 24, 1914
3.7” February 13-14, 1914
4.0” January 31-February 1, 1910
2.5” February 20, 1907
3.1” February 26, 1904
7.0” February 10-11, 1904
8.8” February 15-17, 1902
6.0” February 23-24, 1901
13.5” February 11-14, 1899
2.8” February 16-17, 1895
5.6” February 7-8, 1895

I'm not from the area but was reading through this list and I'm shocked at those 1989 numbers. I had no idea Norfolk had all that snow that year! There wasn't any up here. Anyway, interesting list, I enjoyed reading it and hope you post the March ones. I've been curious about climo there.

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I'm not from the area but was reading through this list and I'm shocked at those 1989 numbers. I had no idea Norfolk had all that snow that year! There wasn't any up here. Anyway, interesting list, I enjoyed reading it and hope you post the March ones. I've been curious about climo there.

Yeah, it can be a weird place. I know that was just the February list, but there seems to be a greater return in La Nina winters than at Richmond, where there is clearly an El Nino correlation to higher snowfall. Looking at 2021-22, 2017-18, and 2010-11, and 1988-89 as just several examples. ORF was also one of the few stations that had an increase in its average when the 1991-2020 30-year climate data was published.

Also, many in this forum probably didn't realize that ORF got about as much snow in January 2022 as DCA did. Not to mention getting two blizzards two years in a row and close to getting a third at the end of January 2022, as AKQ only included the Eastern Shore in the 1/28/2022 Blizzard Warning.

1/3/2018

1/7/2017

 

[Conway7305]

LR snow maps are looking better 

[RIC Airport]

19 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

LR snow maps are looking better 

Yup, and new hits popped up on the 12z EPS. Hopefully, these charts light up in the coming days. 

[Stormpc]

It's a very odd area down here. Southern Hampton Roads Northeast North carolina. I had between 8 and 9 inches of snow from that January event in 2022. Actually Shoveled the driveway. Stuck to the road and pavement very well. So it does snow here. And it can happen. I don't remember the last time DCA had 8 inches of snow during one event. Probably not since I moved out of that area in 2019. Very narrow stripe though. A good 6 inches was still prevalent down to Grandy but once south of Grandy (like a mile) there was basically nothing. Up to Moyock and into Chesapeake a few inches less as well. Most of the times during marginal events my neighborhood gets nothing while just a quarter mile inland can have a few inches. I got lucky or unlucky depending on how you look at it. A few times I've had nothing at my house while the front of the neighborhood, which is just a few hundred yards away, has had a dusting. I need the winds coming off the land. Any part of the Sound and I'm toast. 

[JFLETCHER]

30 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Yup, and new hits popped up on the 12z EPS. Hopefully, these charts light up in the coming days. 

Today the LR looks good. Obviously, we don't want to take into account actual model runs, but primarily ensembles. Gotta say from Presidents Day through early March, I think we can score. What I would love is a good ole fashioned Miller A to come right up the coast and get us all in the action. Please no Miller Bs-they screw us 9 out of 10 times at our latitude unless the transfer happens in TN. I'm excited about this timeframe, just have to be patient.

[RIC Airport]

3 hours ago, Stormpc said:

It's a very odd area down here. Southern Hampton Roads Northeast North carolina. I had between 8 and 9 inches of snow from that January event in 2022. Actually Shoveled the driveway. Stuck to the road and pavement very well. So it does snow here. And it can happen. I don't remember the last time DCA had 8 inches of snow during one event. Probably not since I moved out of that area in 2019. Very narrow stripe though. A good 6 inches was still prevalent down to Grandy but once south of Grandy (like a mile) there was basically nothing. Up to Moyock and into Chesapeake a few inches less as well. Most of the times during marginal events my neighborhood gets nothing while just a quarter mile inland can have a few inches. I got lucky or unlucky depending on how you look at it. A few times I've had nothing at my house while the front of the neighborhood, which is just a few hundred yards away, has had a dusting. I need the winds coming off the land. Any part of the Sound and I'm toast. 

The winter of 2021-22 was frustrating, but there were numerous opportunities. I remember us tracking legit threats every week that were all happening on the weekends that January, from the 1/3/22 storm that trended too far north at the last minute to the two storms that tracked too far east barely giving coastal areas snow, but not enough in Richmond. Also, the 1/16/22 storm tracked up the Piedmont while we were in the upper teens to low 20s at the start but managed to reach the 50s six hours later. 

A couple maps I saved from that event. 

[RIC Airport]

21 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

The winter of 2021-22 was frustrating, but there were numerous opportunities. I remember us tracking legit threats every week that were all happening on the weekends that January, from the 1/3/22 storm that trended too far north at the last minute to the two the storms that tracked too far east barely giving coastal areas snow, but not enough in Richmond. Also, the 1/16/22 storm tracked up the Piedmont while we were in the upper teens to low 20s at the start but managed to reach the 50s six hours later. 

A couple maps I saved from that event. 

 

1/29/2014 is another SE VA/NE NC snowstorm that often gets overlooked, @Stormpc.

 

[RIC Airport]

3 hours ago, JFLETCHER said:

Today the LR looks good. Obviously, we don't want to take into account actual model runs, but primarily ensembles. Gotta say from Presidents Day through early March, I think we can score. What I would love is a good ole fashioned Miller A to come right up the coast and get us all in the action. Please no Miller Bs-they screw us 9 out of 10 times at our latitude unless the transfer happens in TN. I'm excited about this timeframe, just have to be patient.

I agree. I wish we could return to the old days when the Miller A's happened regularly. Another good scenario is a southern slider (some call it Miller C), like 12/9/2018, 2/16/2015, or 1/30/2010, where there is one moisture slug and no mixing issues. 

OTTOMH, the last Miller A's that worked out were 2/12/2014 and 3/1/2009. We are getting more hybrids now, like 1/23/2016. I also am okay with those that form off the SC/GA coast and move north, like 1/25/2000 or 2/16/1996.

[Stormpc]

10 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

1/29/2014 is another SE VA/NE NC snowstorm that often gets overlooked, @Stormpc.

 

That's another very tight gradient. I'm sure I was grieving that storm, missing it to my south. I still think we're going to have another good shot or two. Especially up where you are. Things are looking pretty good I must say. Possible suppressed pattern. Not bad for me. Not great for further north. Pretty rough to go from 7-8 inches in Williamsburg and barely an inch around richmond. That's tight.

[mikeeng92]

1/23/16, from what I remember we got pretty lucky in Richmond. Day 1 was a bust with plenty of sleet and mixing. Then on day 2 the wraparound over performed and put on an amazing show.