Stormpc Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 36 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Today's 12z operational GFS is still south with the 2/4 to 2/6 low. Will be interesting to see how the ensembles look. We need the upper low over the Canadian Maritimes (A) further east so the low in the gulf (B) can amplify and come north. The 12z GFS was farther north than the 6z run so there is that. Canadian got it done just in time. Similar to EURO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 31 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Canadian got it done just in time. Similar to EURO. There is a lot of spread on the models, it's good that the farther north solutions are still showing up. The 12Z GEFS had a mixed breed of solutions. A couple hits, some southern misses, and even quite a few rainy members. You can see why the 50th percentile is so empty because only a couple members are driving up the mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 The 12z euro was still close to something big, but it gets shredded so it's too far south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The 12z euro was still close to something big, but still gets shredded and is too far south and east. Hopefully ensemble members will show it further north. That ULL near New England is causing the suppressed look. GEM showed a flush hit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 56 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Hopefully ensemble members will show it further north. That ULL near New England is causing the suppressed look. GEM showed a flush hit here. Certainly nothing like yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Certainly nothing like yesterday. Still plenty of time but not trending well. GFS Ensembles are better. Unfortunately GFS usually follows the EURO. May need to wait for pattern change around 15th until we track anything promising. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 14 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Still plenty of time but not trending well. GFS Ensembles are better. Unfortunately GFS usually follows the EURO. May need to wait for pattern change around 15th until we track anything promising. Waiting till after the normals start rising isnt ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 20 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Still plenty of time but not trending well. GFS Ensembles are better. Unfortunately GFS usually follows the EURO. May need to wait for pattern change around 15th until we track anything promising. 5 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Waiting till after the normals start rising isnt ideal. Trend definitely isn’t good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 The only good thing is id rather see it well south and hope it comes north than north and hope it comes south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 06 gfs further north and warmer. Just no cold air once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Agreed, Feb 4-5 north trend is too warm “at the moment” Catch 22. Colder = Supression, Warmer if storm is north. Maybe a coastal low can bring in colder air. Longer Term, NAO really just needs to go negative to help us. It positive now trending neutral through Feb 15th. Weeklies still ok on pattern change but only after the 15th and will take time to get cold air established. Wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t start tracking legit opportunities until after Feb 20th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Still hanging onto a few big hitters on the 12z GFS Ensembles 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Re 2/5-2/6...If it gets this for North it's going to be rain. As it looks right now. Still looking like pattern change around mid-month but again that's over two weeks away still. We'll take what we can get between now and then. At least something to look at especially for you folks in the Richmond area and north. If anything I'm getting either some rain or a lot of wind driven rain with this. Not much difference down here. A few cold air damming situations pop up on those ensembles. But Not many. From now till mid month looks to be a gradual step down with a little roller coaster in temperatures until that block gets established north of the maritimes. At least that's what it looks like right now. @RIC Airport can delve deeper into the euro and ensembles later. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 29 Author Share Posted January 29 2 hours ago, Stormpc said: Re 2/5-2/6...If it gets this for North it's going to be rain. As it looks right now. Still looking like pattern change around mid-month but again that's over two weeks away still. We'll take what we can get between now and then. At least something to look at especially for you folks in the Richmond area and north. If anything I'm getting either some rain or a lot of wind driven rain with this. Not much difference down here. A few cold air damming situations pop up on those ensembles. But Not many. From now till mid month looks to be a gradual step down with a little roller coaster in temperatures until that block gets established north of the maritimes. At least that's what it looks like right now. @RIC Airport can delve deeper into the euro and ensembles later. There is still potential for 2/5, but I became uninvested after yesterday's 12Z runs. Today's 12Z EPS only had 1-2 good hits, even fewer than yesterday and the day before, so the trend has not been great. Meanwhile, today's updated weeklies continue to sing the same tune for late February into March. That's really the only thing we can ask for at this juncture, with the hopes the pattern will deliver for our area. I do not see the need to cancel the winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 29 Author Share Posted January 29 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 ICON throws a bone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Huge shift N on Icon, giving some love to VA Beach Tidewater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 30 Author Share Posted January 30 That's great to know, but I would be careful using the ICON and CMC for sniffing out east coast snowstorms. ICON hasn't been around long enough, and CMC has only won once in like the last 15-20 years over the GFS/Euro. I'm not trying to be a killjoy, just saying. I think they might be useful closer in though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 30 Author Share Posted January 30 ICON, fwiw, @Conway7305, @ldub23 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 30 Author Share Posted January 30 00z GFS was still south. I posted the ICON map, but I am not able to see what @ldub23posted. Not sure if it's an image or a link, but this is what I see all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 This year is done. The pattern isnt going to change till late march when we can enjoy well below normal temps and rain till mid may. Will se va get an inch of snow next winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 30 Author Share Posted January 30 6 hours ago, ldub23 said: This year is done. The pattern isnt going to change till late march when we can enjoy well below normal temps and rain till mid may. Will se va get an inch of snow next winter? I disagree, snow season goes through the end of March. ORF even had accumulating snows (2.0") as late as 3/12 back in 2018. Richmond had a 4" event on 3/24/2013 and a 2.0" on 3/21/2018. Not including at least a handful of events in early March since 2013. Just because the models propped an unlikely event on 2/5 has no bearing for the rest of the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 The upcoming pattern looks very favorable starting on Feb 15th. There hasn’t been any can kicking. Long wave patterns looks pretty darn good with split flow and developing NAO block. Folks in main thread are going nuts over it today, even the regular skeptics on that thread are bullish. Will see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 31 Author Share Posted January 31 14 years ago today, a really nice snowstorm was winding down in our region. What was so nice about it was that it was a daytime event accompanied by very cold temperatures and low visibilities. Snow started around 4am, with the heaviest rates (1-2" per hour) between about 8am and 4pm. Temperatures at Richmond were only in the upper teens to around 20°F during the event. It was one of the coldest snowstorms of this magnitude since the Blizzard of 1996. Official accumulations were 10.0" at RIC and 6.5" at ORF, but some places in the RIC area had as much as 14-15". A map with the event summary from NWS Wakefield can be found at this link. Below is a 24-hour summary for RIC for 1/30/2010, and a couple of obs and saved radar images from that day. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Those were the days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 31 Author Share Posted January 31 20 hours ago, Conway7305 said: The upcoming pattern looks very favorable starting on Feb 15th. There hasn’t been any can kicking. Long wave patterns looks pretty darn good with split flow and developing NAO block. Folks in main thread are going nuts over it today, even the regular skeptics on that thread are bullish. Will see. 50 minutes ago, JB Fins said: Those were the days. Those were the days, @JB Fins. Wish we could get a cold storm with high ratios like that again soon. Look at that RIC 10:54am ob and that visibility! That was as the best rates were starting to happen. Also, @Conway7305, @ldub23 et. al, the GFS still has a storm around 2/15. It's way out there so not worth getting into the details because we know it's going to change. Also, the end of today's 12z run was encouraging for the 2/15 period and beyond. Hopefully it has a clue, it's too early to give up on the winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 31 Author Share Posted January 31 Posting to save @ldub23 time. Certainly a good look. But I'm definitely NOT getting reeled in this soon. Need to get to around 10 days before I begin investing time. But the signals are great to see. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: Posting to save @ldub23 time. Certainly a good look. But I'm definitely NOT getting reeled in this soon. Need to get to around 10 days before I begin investing time. But the signals are great to see. Hopefully the cold will actually show up. The last so called pattern change had 2 days of winter temps and no snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 2 hours ago, RIC Airport said: Those were the days, @JB Fins. Wish we could get a cold storm with high ratios like that again soon. Look at that RIC 10:54am ob and that visibility! That was as the best rates were starting to happen. Also, @Conway7305, @ldub23 et. al, the GFS still has a storm around 2/15. It's way out there so not worth getting into the details because we know it's going to change. Also, the end of today's 12z run was encouraging for the 2/15 period and beyond. Hopefully it has a clue, it's too early to give up on the winter. 2/15-3/15 period is going to be rockin!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Perfect split flow. Couldn’t draw it up any better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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