Conway7305 Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 0z EURO would break the snow records for Richmond Feb 4-5th if it verified. Still snowing at end of the run. 6z GFS Ensembles also look better for the same timeframe. I’m sure 12z will be different but great to see threats popping up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 Man I hope you guys get this one. I’d love a blizzard to happen for you. You got this! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 27, 2024 Author Share Posted January 27, 2024 2 hours ago, Conway7305 said: 0z EURO would break the snow records for Richmond Feb 4-5th if it verified. Still snowing at end of the run. 6z GFS Ensembles also look better for the same timeframe. I’m sure 12z will be different but great to see threats popping up! It actually look similar to that one ensemble member I posted the other day. The 00z GFS had it hitting NC, and the 6z was suppressed to the south, but as you mentioned, some of the 6z ensembles were hits for us. We can expect to see wild swings from run to run with the pattern change. Hang tight, everyone!! 22 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: Man I hope you guys get this one. I’d love a blizzard to happen for you. You got this! Thank you for thinking about us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 Well the 12z EURO was suppressed but does bring a storm up coast. Interesting to see what the ensemble members show. Good news is, there is a storm but different evolution. Will see lots of different solutions 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 33 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Well the 0z EURO was suppressed but does bring a storm up coast. Interesting to see what the ensemble members show. Good news is, there is a storm but different evolution. Will see lots of different solutions 12z but yeah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 5 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: 12z but yeah Just corrected it, thx! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 27, 2024 Author Share Posted January 27, 2024 Definitely was an interested solution on the op. Not too many ensemble hits, but a couple were HUGE! ORF and ECG actually had more hits than RIC, possibly indicative of a more southern outcome, rather than snow being displaced north of us like last week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 EURO. Wild solution. Never going to happen that way but it's nice to see. We've got something to look at. Signal is increasing for some kind of East Coast storm. Maybe a big one. Models all over the place. Go back even a few days and look how this current weekend weather situation was modeled. Not great. I need to mow the front yard and get rid of the dandelions if there is any chance of snow. A yellow flower poking through isn't a good look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 Euro ensembles? 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 27, 2024 Author Share Posted January 27, 2024 6 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Euro ensembles? 12z Did you notice in the chart above that E-50 was 24” at RIC? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 Still some Big hits on graphs. Would love to see the animation output for e50 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 12 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Did you notice in the chart above that E-50 was 24” at RIC? Lol sorry I meant the spread map you put out sometimes that shows the whole region with the average accumulation throughout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 27, 2024 Author Share Posted January 27, 2024 1 hour ago, Conway7305 said: Still some Big hits on graphs. Would love to see the animation output for e50 1 hour ago, wasnow215 said: Lol sorry I meant the spread map you put out sometimes that shows the whole region with the average accumulation throughout 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 27, 2024 Author Share Posted January 27, 2024 @Conway7305, e-32 for is a more believable evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 26 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: @Conway7305, e-32 for is a more believable evolution. Exactly. That's the most believable possible, snowy solution. And just think how many elements have to come together at exactly the same time in order to produce that. That would be epic. And one heck of a stroke of luck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 28, 2024 Author Share Posted January 28, 2024 1 hour ago, Stormpc said: Exactly. That's the most believable possible, snowy solution. And just think how many elements have to come together at exactly the same time in order to produce that. That would be epic. And one heck of a stroke of luck. Our area is due the most, would love to get a March 1980 blizzard redux. Btw, there were some huge hits on the 18z GEFS as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 28, 2024 Share Posted January 28, 2024 3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Our area is due the most, would love to get a March 1980 blizzard redux. Btw, there were some huge hits on the 18z GEFS as well. those are some insane totals. 20+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 28, 2024 Author Share Posted January 28, 2024 Charts, @Conway7305 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 28, 2024 Share Posted January 28, 2024 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 28, 2024 Author Share Posted January 28, 2024 14 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: This starts at 12z 2/2 and finishes at 12z 2/7. You can see the hits in there around 2/5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 28, 2024 Author Share Posted January 28, 2024 GFS was south again with the 2/5 possible storm, but perhaps some snow showers on Saturday with the confluence low pressing south? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 28, 2024 Share Posted January 28, 2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 28, 2024 Author Share Posted January 28, 2024 3 hours ago, ldub23 said: Could be just me, but I am not able to see what you posted, @ldub23. Meanwhile, after reviewing the overnight and morning models, there is still a storm signal for the February 4th to 6th timeframe, but it isn't as impressive as yesterday (i.e. not as many hits). But there is still plenty of time to monitor. Hopefully today is an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 28, 2024 Author Share Posted January 28, 2024 Today's 12z operational GFS is still south with the 2/4 to 2/6 low. Will be interesting to see how the ensembles look. We need the upper low over the Canadian Maritimes (A) further east so the low in the gulf (B) can amplify and come north. The 12z GFS was farther north than the 6z run so there is that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 28, 2024 Share Posted January 28, 2024 36 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Today's 12z operational GFS is still south with the 2/4 to 2/6 low. Will be interesting to see how the ensembles look. We need the upper low over the Canadian Maritimes (A) further east so the low in the gulf (B) can amplify and come north. The 12z GFS was farther north than the 6z run so there is that. Canadian got it done just in time. Similar to EURO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 28, 2024 Author Share Posted January 28, 2024 31 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Canadian got it done just in time. Similar to EURO. There is a lot of spread on the models, it's good that the farther north solutions are still showing up. The 12Z GEFS had a mixed breed of solutions. A couple hits, some southern misses, and even quite a few rainy members. You can see why the 50th percentile is so empty because only a couple members are driving up the mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 28, 2024 Author Share Posted January 28, 2024 The 12z euro was still close to something big, but it gets shredded so it's too far south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 28, 2024 Share Posted January 28, 2024 3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The 12z euro was still close to something big, but still gets shredded and is too far south and east. Hopefully ensemble members will show it further north. That ULL near New England is causing the suppressed look. GEM showed a flush hit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 28, 2024 Author Share Posted January 28, 2024 56 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Hopefully ensemble members will show it further north. That ULL near New England is causing the suppressed look. GEM showed a flush hit here. Certainly nothing like yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 28, 2024 Share Posted January 28, 2024 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Certainly nothing like yesterday. Still plenty of time but not trending well. GFS Ensembles are better. Unfortunately GFS usually follows the EURO. May need to wait for pattern change around 15th until we track anything promising. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now