ldub23 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 hours ago, RIC Airport said: Explain? Temps wouldnt be 76 a few days before and would be several degrees cooler during the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Today was one hell of a heater. Nearly 80 everywhere! Turned the ac on, up and downstairs. Heat always overperforms. Glad to get this week behind us. Great looking weeklies could be wrong, but if not, we should start seeing some threats in the long range showing up in the next few days. Need to get that cold established up in Eastern Canada to get back in the game. Transition week ahead. Then back to business. I think! Beyond that there's really nothing to talk about given long-range model uncertainty and Incredibly fluctuating op runs. Here's to a great weekend and possibly a thunderstorm or 2!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 27 Author Share Posted January 27 2 hours ago, Stormpc said: Today was one hell of a heater. Nearly 80 everywhere! Turned the ac on, up and downstairs. Heat always overperforms. Glad to get this week behind us. Great looking weeklies could be wrong, but if not, we should start seeing some threats in the long range showing up in the next few days. Need to get that cold established up in Eastern Canada to get back in the game. Transition week ahead. Then back to business. I think! Beyond that there's really nothing to talk about given long-range model uncertainty and Incredibly fluctuating op runs. Here's to a great weekend and possibly a thunderstorm or 2!! I wish I had turned the air on before I went to bed last night. I woke up around 3am, surprisingly uncomfortable. We certainly over-performed with the temperatures this week, especially considering how cold it got last week. I hope our region cashes in before all is set and done. As you mentioned, the operational runs haven't shown much yet, but hopefully, after the weekend, we begin seeing the advertised pattern take shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 38 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: I wish I had turned the air on before I went to bed last night. I woke up around 3am, surprisingly uncomfortable. We certainly over-performed with the temperatures this week, especially considering how cold it got last week. I hope our region cashes in before all is set and done. As you mentioned, the operational runs haven't shown much yet, but hopefully, after the weekend, we begin seeing the advertised pattern take shape. So freaking close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 27 Author Share Posted January 27 52 minutes ago, ldub23 said: So freaking close Might want to look at the surface temps. Also the ensembles are rainy east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 27 Author Share Posted January 27 Well, the Euro went all in last night. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 0z EURO would break the snow records for Richmond Feb 4-5th if it verified. Still snowing at end of the run. 6z GFS Ensembles also look better for the same timeframe. I’m sure 12z will be different but great to see threats popping up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Man I hope you guys get this one. I’d love a blizzard to happen for you. You got this! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 27 Author Share Posted January 27 2 hours ago, Conway7305 said: 0z EURO would break the snow records for Richmond Feb 4-5th if it verified. Still snowing at end of the run. 6z GFS Ensembles also look better for the same timeframe. I’m sure 12z will be different but great to see threats popping up! It actually look similar to that one ensemble member I posted the other day. The 00z GFS had it hitting NC, and the 6z was suppressed to the south, but as you mentioned, some of the 6z ensembles were hits for us. We can expect to see wild swings from run to run with the pattern change. Hang tight, everyone!! 22 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: Man I hope you guys get this one. I’d love a blizzard to happen for you. You got this! Thank you for thinking about us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Well the 12z EURO was suppressed but does bring a storm up coast. Interesting to see what the ensemble members show. Good news is, there is a storm but different evolution. Will see lots of different solutions 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 33 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Well the 0z EURO was suppressed but does bring a storm up coast. Interesting to see what the ensemble members show. Good news is, there is a storm but different evolution. Will see lots of different solutions 12z but yeah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 5 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: 12z but yeah Just corrected it, thx! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 27 Author Share Posted January 27 Definitely was an interested solution on the op. Not too many ensemble hits, but a couple were HUGE! ORF and ECG actually had more hits than RIC, possibly indicative of a more southern outcome, rather than snow being displaced north of us like last week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 EURO. Wild solution. Never going to happen that way but it's nice to see. We've got something to look at. Signal is increasing for some kind of East Coast storm. Maybe a big one. Models all over the place. Go back even a few days and look how this current weekend weather situation was modeled. Not great. I need to mow the front yard and get rid of the dandelions if there is any chance of snow. A yellow flower poking through isn't a good look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Euro ensembles? 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 27 Author Share Posted January 27 6 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Euro ensembles? 12z Did you notice in the chart above that E-50 was 24” at RIC? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Still some Big hits on graphs. Would love to see the animation output for e50 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 12 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Did you notice in the chart above that E-50 was 24” at RIC? Lol sorry I meant the spread map you put out sometimes that shows the whole region with the average accumulation throughout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 27 Author Share Posted January 27 1 hour ago, Conway7305 said: Still some Big hits on graphs. Would love to see the animation output for e50 1 hour ago, wasnow215 said: Lol sorry I meant the spread map you put out sometimes that shows the whole region with the average accumulation throughout 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 27 Author Share Posted January 27 @Conway7305, e-32 for is a more believable evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 26 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: @Conway7305, e-32 for is a more believable evolution. Exactly. That's the most believable possible, snowy solution. And just think how many elements have to come together at exactly the same time in order to produce that. That would be epic. And one heck of a stroke of luck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 1 hour ago, Stormpc said: Exactly. That's the most believable possible, snowy solution. And just think how many elements have to come together at exactly the same time in order to produce that. That would be epic. And one heck of a stroke of luck. Our area is due the most, would love to get a March 1980 blizzard redux. Btw, there were some huge hits on the 18z GEFS as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Our area is due the most, would love to get a March 1980 blizzard redux. Btw, there were some huge hits on the 18z GEFS as well. those are some insane totals. 20+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 Charts, @Conway7305 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 14 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: This starts at 12z 2/2 and finishes at 12z 2/7. You can see the hits in there around 2/5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 GFS was south again with the 2/5 possible storm, but perhaps some snow showers on Saturday with the confluence low pressing south? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 3 hours ago, ldub23 said: Could be just me, but I am not able to see what you posted, @ldub23. Meanwhile, after reviewing the overnight and morning models, there is still a storm signal for the February 4th to 6th timeframe, but it isn't as impressive as yesterday (i.e. not as many hits). But there is still plenty of time to monitor. Hopefully today is an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 Today's 12z operational GFS is still south with the 2/4 to 2/6 low. Will be interesting to see how the ensembles look. We need the upper low over the Canadian Maritimes (A) further east so the low in the gulf (B) can amplify and come north. The 12z GFS was farther north than the 6z run so there is that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now