RIC Airport Posted January 25, 2024 Author Share Posted January 25, 2024 BTW, the euro weeklies are running now, new maps and snow charts I'll post them when it's done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 25, 2024 Share Posted January 25, 2024 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Yup, and you know I had to look at #47. If only that would verify…haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 25, 2024 Author Share Posted January 25, 2024 Things still look on track, with the ~10th and beyond being the most favorable. The snow mean is a slight tick down, but it's typical for slight fluctuations from run to run. Snow charts are still processing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 25, 2024 Share Posted January 25, 2024 25 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Things still look on track, with the ~10th and beyond being the most favorable. The snow mean is a slight tick down, but it's typical for slight fluctuations from run to run. Snow charts are still processing. Yeah, will fluctuate a lot between runs. LR Snowmaps are just an idea not super accurate or personally worried about . One big storm will change it. The pattern still looks great through March 11th. We basically will have a month plus of opportunities hopefully. Love the split flow pattern and active STJ . Haven't seen that at all this winter or past few winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 25, 2024 Author Share Posted January 25, 2024 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: Snow charts are still processing. Updated charts as promised, mostly 15th and later with hits. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 25, 2024 Share Posted January 25, 2024 The gfs taketh away and the gfs once again giveth 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 26, 2024 Author Share Posted January 26, 2024 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: The gfs taketh away and the gfs once again giveth The GFS will continue to fluctuate beyond 200 hours from run to run. But, as discussed, the signals are nice to see. The 18z GEFS did show some support, the below goes from the 3rd thru the 8th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 26, 2024 Author Share Posted January 26, 2024 Meanwhile, we are torching. The high today at Richmond was 71°F, and the low was only 62°F, which ties the highest low temperature recorded in January. That puts the daily average at 67°F, which is +29 degrees above average for the date. All the stations in boxes have their record high minimums in jeopardy for today and tomorrow. Even at this late hour, temperature anomalies are around +25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 15 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The GFS will continue to fluctuate beyond 200 hours from run to run. But, as discussed, the signals are nice to see. The 18z GEFS did show some support, the below goes from the 3rd thru the 8th. Nice to see threats ahead of anticipated pattern change. If we get threats like this for 5-6 weeks beginning Feb 4th we are bound to score decent/ big from at least one storm. The pacific jet stream will move more equatorial and will easily tap the STJ moisture in split flow. The h5 pattern is beautiful and doesn’t seem to end on extended weeklies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 I'm actually impressed how humid it is. Feels like Midsummer outside. I saw bugs today too. That didn't take long. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 26, 2024 Author Share Posted January 26, 2024 4 hours ago, Stormpc said: I'm actually impressed how humid it is. Feels like Midsummer outside. I saw bugs today too. That didn't take long. Yeah, it's a shame. I would rather have what we had on this date 24 years ago. One of my favorite snowstorms, RIC had 7-8 consecutive hours of +SN FZ BLSN and there was one hour where the wind gusted higher than the 2016 storm. A very dynamic storm and an all snow event from beginning to end. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 In a normal winter this would be a coastal snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 26, 2024 Author Share Posted January 26, 2024 33 minutes ago, ldub23 said: In a normal winter this would be a coastal snowstorm Explain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 The new Euro Weeklies run is easily the coldest overall yet again for mid Feb through early Mar. Once the BN temperatures set in Feb 12-19, they remain well below through the end of the run (Mar 4-12th) The week of Feb 19th is the coldest for that week of any run yet and may, when also considering El Niño climo, have the most winter storm potential in the Mid Atlantic of any single week per this run per h5: All checks: Miller A/GOM potential written all over it (combo of Aleutian Low/+PNA, -NAO, -AO, and moist subtropical flow/split flow): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 26, 2024 Author Share Posted January 26, 2024 41 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: The new Euro Weeklies run is easily the coldest overall yet again for mid Feb through early Mar. Once the BN temperatures set in Feb 12-19, they remain well below through the end of the run (Mar 4-12th) The week of Feb 19th is the coldest for that week of any run yet and may, when also considering El Niño climo, have the most winter storm potential in the Mid Atlantic of any single week per this run per h5: All checks: Miller A/GOM potential written all over it (combo of Aleutian Low/+PNA, -NAO, -AO, and moist subtropical flow/split flow): I love it! Really hope it pans out for us, there are quite a few good snowstorms that have hit us between the 10th and 20th of February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 2 hours ago, RIC Airport said: Explain? Temps wouldnt be 76 a few days before and would be several degrees cooler during the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 Today was one hell of a heater. Nearly 80 everywhere! Turned the ac on, up and downstairs. Heat always overperforms. Glad to get this week behind us. Great looking weeklies could be wrong, but if not, we should start seeing some threats in the long range showing up in the next few days. Need to get that cold established up in Eastern Canada to get back in the game. Transition week ahead. Then back to business. I think! Beyond that there's really nothing to talk about given long-range model uncertainty and Incredibly fluctuating op runs. Here's to a great weekend and possibly a thunderstorm or 2!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 27, 2024 Author Share Posted January 27, 2024 2 hours ago, Stormpc said: Today was one hell of a heater. Nearly 80 everywhere! Turned the ac on, up and downstairs. Heat always overperforms. Glad to get this week behind us. Great looking weeklies could be wrong, but if not, we should start seeing some threats in the long range showing up in the next few days. Need to get that cold established up in Eastern Canada to get back in the game. Transition week ahead. Then back to business. I think! Beyond that there's really nothing to talk about given long-range model uncertainty and Incredibly fluctuating op runs. Here's to a great weekend and possibly a thunderstorm or 2!! I wish I had turned the air on before I went to bed last night. I woke up around 3am, surprisingly uncomfortable. We certainly over-performed with the temperatures this week, especially considering how cold it got last week. I hope our region cashes in before all is set and done. As you mentioned, the operational runs haven't shown much yet, but hopefully, after the weekend, we begin seeing the advertised pattern take shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 38 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: I wish I had turned the air on before I went to bed last night. I woke up around 3am, surprisingly uncomfortable. We certainly over-performed with the temperatures this week, especially considering how cold it got last week. I hope our region cashes in before all is set and done. As you mentioned, the operational runs haven't shown much yet, but hopefully, after the weekend, we begin seeing the advertised pattern take shape. So freaking close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 27, 2024 Author Share Posted January 27, 2024 52 minutes ago, ldub23 said: So freaking close Might want to look at the surface temps. Also the ensembles are rainy east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 27, 2024 Author Share Posted January 27, 2024 Well, the Euro went all in last night. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 0z EURO would break the snow records for Richmond Feb 4-5th if it verified. Still snowing at end of the run. 6z GFS Ensembles also look better for the same timeframe. I’m sure 12z will be different but great to see threats popping up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 Man I hope you guys get this one. I’d love a blizzard to happen for you. You got this! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 27, 2024 Author Share Posted January 27, 2024 2 hours ago, Conway7305 said: 0z EURO would break the snow records for Richmond Feb 4-5th if it verified. Still snowing at end of the run. 6z GFS Ensembles also look better for the same timeframe. I’m sure 12z will be different but great to see threats popping up! It actually look similar to that one ensemble member I posted the other day. The 00z GFS had it hitting NC, and the 6z was suppressed to the south, but as you mentioned, some of the 6z ensembles were hits for us. We can expect to see wild swings from run to run with the pattern change. Hang tight, everyone!! 22 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: Man I hope you guys get this one. I’d love a blizzard to happen for you. You got this! Thank you for thinking about us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 Well the 12z EURO was suppressed but does bring a storm up coast. Interesting to see what the ensemble members show. Good news is, there is a storm but different evolution. Will see lots of different solutions 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 33 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Well the 0z EURO was suppressed but does bring a storm up coast. Interesting to see what the ensemble members show. Good news is, there is a storm but different evolution. Will see lots of different solutions 12z but yeah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 5 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: 12z but yeah Just corrected it, thx! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 27, 2024 Author Share Posted January 27, 2024 Definitely was an interested solution on the op. Not too many ensemble hits, but a couple were HUGE! ORF and ECG actually had more hits than RIC, possibly indicative of a more southern outcome, rather than snow being displaced north of us like last week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 EURO. Wild solution. Never going to happen that way but it's nice to see. We've got something to look at. Signal is increasing for some kind of East Coast storm. Maybe a big one. Models all over the place. Go back even a few days and look how this current weekend weather situation was modeled. Not great. I need to mow the front yard and get rid of the dandelions if there is any chance of snow. A yellow flower poking through isn't a good look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 Euro ensembles? 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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