Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[ldub23]

2 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

Unless somehow that shortwave around the 28th-1st turns into something (which is a long shot for us this far south), it's still looking like ~2/10 and later for any significant chance of snow opportunities. 

Below are the H5 maps from today's 12Z GEFS (hour 384) and EPS (hour 360). After the storm around the 28th-1st moves away, a couple days of cold follow it before there is ridging building back into the east, and we moderate. 

 

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Today's Euro weeklies show the change around the 10th. Here is the look on 10 FEB as the trough is beginning to move back toward the east coast with increasing heights in the EPO, AO, NAO domains. The only teleconnection that doesn't look great continues to be the PNA (lack of a west ridge), but the euro weeklies do show it neutral to slightly positive.

FEB 10th

FEB 15th

FEB 20th

FEB 25th

MAR 1st

MAR 6th

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After the 10th is when the snowfall mean begins to increase, with the period from about the 15th to March 1st being the highest. 

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The snow below snow charts take longer to update, but these are from the run two days ago, and you can see snow hits begin to increase in earnest after about the 10/12th at Richmond and Norfolk.

We can still hope

[RIC Airport]

3 hours ago, ldub23 said:

We can still hope

The end of the 18Z GEFS indicates an earlier change. Let's hope there is an earlier shift. Also, one ensemble member obliterated NC and SE VA from the 4th to the 5th of February with 14" of snow falling at Norfolk and 18" at Elizabeth City. Only one member, but it could be a sign we could be back in the game sooner than we think. 

[ldub23]

10 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

The end of the 18Z GEFS indicates an earlier change. Let's hope there is an earlier shift. Also, one ensemble member obliterated NC and SE VA from the 4th to the 5th of February with 14" of snow falling at Norfolk and 18" at Elizabeth City. Only one member, but it could be a sign we could be back in the game sooner than we think. 

I wish that was right. On the  other  hand these are the  temps at  384hrs at  midnight i think. Very warm. Feb 07 is when normals start rising. 

 

 

 

 

 

The  low that did  have a  little  promise as some  snow  is  now  just way too warm

 

[RIC Airport]

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

I wish that was right. On the  other  hand these are the  temps at  384hrs at  midnight i think. Very warm. Feb 07 is when normals start rising. 

The  low that did  have a  little  promise as some  snow  is  now  just way too warm.

I posted that only to increase hope, not to say I genuinely believed it. Plus, as was shown, only one member had it, while others were warm and rainy. Also, later runs of the GEFS took it away, so it's not surprising the operational GFS you posted didnt match that one snowy member from yesterday's 18Z GEFS. So, as I've shared with you, look at the ensembles and identify trends rather than posting the 384-hour operational GFS and taking it as gospel. 

I highlighted earlier that the pattern should become more favorable as we progress in February, particularly after about February 10th, based on what I see now. But, it's beyond that, probably mid to late February into early March when it looked the best. Until I begin seeing the ensembles trend earlier, that's what I'll be sticking to. And while it's past peak climate, it can still snow in our region in late February and early March.  

[ldub23]

One ray of sunshine  is the  cold  comes  back better  at  0Z than 18z

 

18z

 

 

 

 

0Z

 

[ldub23]

0Z Temps

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

18z

 

[RIC Airport]

57 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

0Z Temps

18z

It looks to be a fairly potent shot of cold. It also tried to bring snow with the passage of the cold front on the 31st. 

Then ridging returns to the east, and we moderate for at least several days, but it probably won't be as mild as what we'll see later this week. But, even the warm-up in early February looks temporary because the pattern is reshuffling into what looks to be something more favorable somewhere around the 10th and later. This window could still shift to the left or right, but something more wintery for the east is what most long-range models agree on. Hopefully this time our area can score.

[ldub23]

06z is alot  cooler than yesterdays runs  but  no big snow

 

 

Almost at  12z

 

[Stormpc]

Looks like models are trying to Tamp down the 14-day warm up. Maybe a back door front later this weekend followed by normal temperatures. Doesn't look as toasty as it did two days ago that's for sure. All very good steps going forward. Cold trying to build back into Eastern Canada.  

[RIC Airport]

Doesn't exactly jive with how the last 24 hours of the GFS depicted the first week of February, but the updated Euro weeklies continued to paint the theme of a warm early February followed by a cold 2nd half of the month and into March, which you can see in the animation below. 

Also, the snow mean ticked up from the other day. Although there are still some shutouts, quite a few members have > 10" of snow at RIC, some even around 20"+, through the period ending March 8th. There are more shutouts for Norfolk and Elizabeth City, but there still appears to be some hope. 

[RIC Airport]

So, looking at the temperatures on the 18z GFS ensembles, it's still a pretty mild look through the first seven days of February. Yes, we cool down after this weekend, but it's only for a few days before we begin a slight moderation again. It's not a torch, but it still would yield slightly positive departures from the average. So, today's Euro weeklies are on par with expectations that the 9th to 15th is (hopefully) the transition period to a colder pattern with legitimate snow chances. 

 

[Conway7305]

10 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

So, looking at the temperatures on the 18z GFS ensembles, it's still a pretty mild look through the first seven days of February. Yes, we cool down after this weekend, but it's only for a few days before we begin a slight moderation again. It's not a torch, but it still would yield slightly positive departures from the average. So, today's Euro weeklies are on par with expectations that the 9th to 15th is (hopefully) the transition period to a colder pattern with legitimate snow chances. 

 

Agreed,  I never really expected much before Feb 15th.  All the guidance has been around 8-15th for the transition to occur .  No can kicking at least.  NAO/AO  is getting ready to tank from positive and should be negative by early Feb.  

[Stormpc]

My fear every year living down here is there's never a cold enough stretch to totally kill the bugs. These last 6 days should do the trick. Anything else after this for me down on the coast is gravy. As you see my bar is very very low. Not many wish for a cold enough winter period to kill bugs. Any snow is a bonus. Looks like mid-February through mid-march will be active. March these days is much better than December and we can now start talking about severe season soon. I know. Depressing to many. Nothing scientific in my post. Obviously we are in the doldrums of midwinter with not much going on for at least 10 days.

[ldub23]

GFS has 2 possibiities but they both die out before they get here.

198

 

 

 

 

 

 

360

 

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, Stormpc said:

My fear every year living down here is there's never a cold enough stretch to totally kill the bugs. These last 6 days should do the trick. Anything else after this for me down on the coast is gravy. As you see my bar is very very low. Not many wish for a cold enough winter period to kill bugs. Any snow is a bonus. Looks like mid-February through mid-march will be active. March these days is much better than December and we can now start talking about severe season soon. I know. Depressing to many. Nothing scientific in my post. Obviously we are in the doldrums of midwinter with not much going on for at least 10 days.

I also suspect it was cold enough to kill them off, which I agree is a good thing. It will certainly feel like spring this week and it will turn humid, too! Really hoping we can score in February and March with some good cold and snow, it's been disappointing for our area and it sucks we were so close to seeing decent snow last week. 

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

GFS has 2 possibiities but they both die out before they get here.

198

360

For hour 198, while there's been a few operational GFS runs showing snow around the 31st, I would not bet on it with the set up. Also, it doesn't have ensemble support nor has the Euro/EPS consistently supported it.

 

@ldub23, I like this set up between hour 348 and 360 on the 6Z GFS. There is a strong high over the Great Lakes with moisture overrunning to the south. The problem I see right now is, it's way out there (300+ hours), it's also a completely new scenario from the 00Z run, which you can see in the 3rd and 4th map below, and it did not have ensemble support (they look rainy). Obviously we hope later runs have this set up, but we need more consistency before we take it seriously.

 

 

These are those two maps from the 00z GFS, there is hardly any cold air east of the Rockies and completely different set up from 6z GFS.

 

Also, there was no ensemble support on this morning 6z GEFS. But, this is meaningless with it being so far out. 

 

[Stormpc]

Everything looks to be staying the course to a flip back to more favorable conditions after the first week of next month. Not seeing terrible cold, but sufficient enough in the source region over Eastern Canada and Greenland to get us what we need. Especially Richmond and North. We do a lot better when we get those Strong high pressure systems pressing that fresh cold air down  on NE winds without having it modify while traveling through thousands of miles of Midwestern Plains and the Continental Divide across the appalachians. Back door fronts and cold air damming looks to be a possibility going forward. Something to watch. Without getting crazy technical. 

[ldub23]

[Stormpc]

3 mild days thru Friday then back to near normal to slightly above. Definitely not the torch advertised a few days ago. We'll see how mid or late next week shakes out but not seeing that push of widespread 60s/70s like we saw progged. More of a gradual step back down then we are back in business. Love the Eastern Canada cold/High pressing down. Maybe a southern storm track or overrunning set up late in the period. NOT terrible. 

[RIC Airport]

Well, it hit 70°F at RIC and ORF today. We certainly got way more sunshine than even I expected. I would argue today through Friday is a torch even though record highs are in the mid-upper 70s. However, the low temperature at RIC will struggle to drop below 60°F the next couple of nights, which will easily break the record-high minimum for the dates and also rival the highest ever observed in the entire month. This will also drive the daily departure from average to the +20 to +25 range.

EPS still has us going back to more reasonable temps after Saturday. I am not sold on snow the 30th-1st, even though there have been some signals. Meanwhile, the period between the 5th and 10th must be watched more closely.

[Conway7305]

34 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Well, it hit 70°F at RIC and ORF today. We certainly got way more sunshine than even I expected. I would argue today through Friday is a torch even though record highs are in the mid-upper 70s. However, the low temperature at RIC will struggle to drop below 60°F the next couple of nights, which will easily break the record-high minimum for the dates and also rival the highest ever observed in the entire month. This will also drive the daily departure from average to the +20 to +25 range.

EPS still has us going back to more reasonable temps after Saturday. I am not sold on snow the 30th-1st, even though there have been some signals. Meanwhile, the period between the 5th and 10th must be watched more closely.

It’s actually really enjoyable now.  Love the warm break.  Calm before the big pattern change.  Weeklies look absolutely fantastic for cold and stormy from about Feb 15th all the way to March 10th.  I couldn’t draw up a better pattern. 

 

[RIC Airport]

39 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

It’s actually really enjoyable now.  Love the warm break.  Calm before the big pattern change.  Weeklies look absolutely fantastic for cold and stormy from about Feb 15th all the way to March 10th.  I couldn’t draw up a better pattern. 

Very happy to see they are consistent. I think we are also on the verge of witnessing the operational runs head in that direction.

There was also a nice uptick in the snowfall in the last couple of days. Richmond was at 4.4" on Monday, 5.6" now, and I suspect it will continue to increase. There will be an updated snow chart tomorrow. 

[Stormpc]

15 hours ago, Conway7305 said:

It’s actually really enjoyable now.  Love the warm break.  Calm before the big pattern change.  Weeklies look absolutely fantastic for cold and stormy from about Feb 15th all the way to March 10th.  I couldn’t draw up a better pattern. 

Today's 6z GFS is one hell of a WEENIE run for us in the lower Mid Atlantic.  Nice to see. Won't shake out that way but better than what we have been seeing all winter. Back to tracking!!!

[Conway7305]

43 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Today's 6z GFS is one hell of a WEENIE run for us in the lower Mid Atlantic.  Nice to see. Won't shake out that way but better than what we have been seeing all winter. Back to tracking!!!

Yep! Big time run for us validating the  pattern change at least and ahead of schedule.

[ldub23]

2 hours ago, Conway7305 said:

Yep! Big time run for us validating the  pattern change at least and ahead of schedule.

Several chances

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ICON. perfect  low track just  not  cold enough as usual

 

[RIC Airport]

The 6z GFS was great, but I only get excited when I see consistency and ensemble support. And it was night and day from its 00z run, which I was up for, but I didn't notice anything remotely interesting.

As I said yesterday, the 5th to 10th period must be watched more closely, but it's still too far out to take anything seriously. I am happy we "see" signals for February because the Euro weeklies/GEFS extended are nice and we want to start seeing the operational and ensembles transition to the advertised mid-February to March pattern soon. 

Also, @ldub23, we already established that the 31st/1st is not our storm. When you look at the flow and the track of that energy, along with a marginal airmass, it just makes sense. Plus, there was never any ensemble support for that event. And lastly, I personally put little faith in models like the ICON and CMC, they don't have a good track record for leading the way with snowstorms. 

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

The 6z GFS was great, but I only get excited when I see consistency and ensemble support. And it was night and day from its 00z run, which I was up for, but I didn't notice anything remotely interesting.

As I said yesterday, the 5th to 10th period must be watched more closely, but it's still too far out to take anything seriously. I am happy we "see" signals for February because the Euro weeklies/GEFS extended are nice and we want to start seeing the operational and ensembles transition to the advertised mid-February to March pattern soon. 

Also, @ldub23, we already established that the 31st/1st is not our storm. When you look at the flow and the track of that energy, along with a marginal airmass, it just makes sense. Plus, there was never any ensemble support for that event. And lastly, I personally put little faith in models like the ICON and CMC, they don't have a good track record for leading the way with snowstorms. 

Yep, 12z went  back to absolutely  nothing

 

[Stormpc]

There's going to be some wild rides and differences every 6 hours. Yes consistency is lacking. I still like that second week of February benchmark where things should flip. Should start showing up real soon though consistently. We hope. Haven't looked at the euro but it's running now so I'll see it later. 

[RIC Airport]

So, looking at the 12Z EPS, we can see why February 5th to 10th is a period of interest. There were a few hits, but mostly nothing. Hopefully, the hits increase in the days ahead, particularly as we get later in the month. 

Interestingly, a couple of the hits were HUGE. But, that's also why the 50th percentile map showed nothing, because only a couple of the members (looking at #47) are responsible for why the mean is as high as it is. 

[Conway7305]

15 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

So, looking at the 12Z EPS, we can see why February 5th to 10th is a period of interest. There were a few hits, but mostly nothing. Hopefully, the hits increase in the days ahead, particularly as we get later in the month. 

Interestingly, a couple of the hits were HUGE. But, that's also why the 50th percentile map showed nothing, because only a couple of the members (looking at #47) are responsible for why the mean is as high as it is. 

Some HECS hits in there, nice!!  I know it will change but good to see some big outputs being so far out.  That time frame is before the pattern change really occurs. 

[RIC Airport]

14 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Some HECS hits in there, nice!!  I know it will change but good to see some big outputs being so far out.  That trim frame is before the pattern change really occurs. 

Yup, and you know I had to look at #47.