ldub23 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 More rain here. Maybe a flurry later but Alaska has gone into the freezer so a big warm-up is coming here. This is fairbanks and they are way below normal. We need a real pattern change if anything is going to happen in Feb Today Flurries after 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near -9. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Tonight Flurries. Partly cloudy, with a low around -22. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph after midnight. Saturday Flurries. Mostly sunny, with a high near -20. Wind chill values as low as -45. Northeast wind around 10 mph. Saturday Night Flurries before 9pm. Mostly clear, with a low around -33. Wind chill values as low as -50. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Sunday Sunny, with a high near -32. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the morning. Sunday Night Patchy freezing fog after 3am. Partly cloudy, with a low around -41. Monday Patchy freezing fog before 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near -32. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around -37. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near -31. Tuesday Night A slight chance of snow after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -33. Wednesday A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near -27. Wednesday Night A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -38. Thursday A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near -30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 got a very light dusting in my part of Glen Allen ... could get another flurry/ snow shower later but wouldnt count on anything more then that... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 47 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: got a very light dusting in my part of Glen Allen ... could get another flurry/ snow shower later but wouldnt count on anything more then that... Nice! It looks like there is a redevelopment to the north. It's just a matter of how far south it gets, but there is a good chance of some snow showers, it's just that not everyone will see them. Wakefield has also mentioned the afternoon snow shower chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: More rain here. Maybe a flurry later but Alaska has gone into the freezer so a big warm-up is coming here. This is fairbanks and they are way below normal. We need a real pattern change if anything is going to happen in Feb It was expected and also lined up with what the ensembles have shown. The pattern is changing, and this next one will likely last about 3 weeks before it improves again. Hopefully, it's more favorable for us before we run out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 nice snow glob snow shower going through Virginia Center Commons 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 29 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Nice! It looks like there is a redevelopment to the north. It's just a matter of how far south it gets, but there is a good chance of some snow showers, it's just that not everyone will see them. Wakefield has also mentioned the afternoon snow shower chance. Per radar, that little appendage down the peninsula looks like it's starting to develop. The models have had that arm trailing the exiting storm for several runs now. I suspect there will be some convective snow showers with grauple moving from Northwest to Southeast across the area this afternoon. Won't get down to me but maybe Newport News can get in on some of the goods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Snow flurry downtown. I think I'll wet my pants 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 49 minutes ago, JB Fins said: Snow flurry downtown. I think I'll wet my pants It made it in the official ob, too! 1 hour ago, Stormpc said: Per radar, that little appendage down the peninsula looks like it's starting to develop. The models have had that arm trailing the exiting storm for several runs now. I suspect there will be some convective snow showers with grauple moving from Northwest to Southeast across the area this afternoon. Won't get down to me but maybe Newport News can get in on some of the goods. It's moving SE near Williamsburg and will be across Hampton Roads, soon. Actually, I'd say the 3K NAM I posted last night did pretty well today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Looks like its moving more east than se. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 37 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Looks like its moving more east than se. Yeah, seems to have waned some, too. But we won't escape the cold. Below are the Euro temps for 3pm tomorrow. Almost all stations are below freezing. But, if the Euro is correct, we are torching a week later with widespread 70s next Saturday at 1pm. This pattern change will be brutal, hopefully, we don't verify that warm and we get back to cold and snow. We get 70°F+ most of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Yeah, seems to have waned some, too. But we won't escape the cold. Below are the Euro temps for 3pm tomorrow. Almost all stations are below freezing. But, if the Euro is correct, we are torching a week later with widespread 70s next Saturday at 1pm. This pattern change will be brutal, hopefully, we don't verify that warm and we get back to cold and snow. We get 70°F+ most of the year. With Alaska so brutally cold then we will have to have summer in Feb. Im going to make a really bold prediction. Late march thu most of may will be well below normal with alot of rain and the low tracks will be perfect for snowstorms if it were jan/feb. Future radar shows no snow flurry here today https://www.13newsnow.com/radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 You can bet on '70s next weekend no doubt. Until then we will enjoy winter until Tuesday. Some Echoes breaking out across North Central North Carolina/So Va. Not sure if that's in response to the H5 pass or interaction with the strengthening low and sunshine instability. I have low 50s at the house. That ain't going to make snow!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 06 GFS not as bleak as earlier runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 4 hours ago, ldub23 said: 06 GFS not as bleak as earlier runs The other day in this post, I mentioned how some of the ensembles were showing a snow threat in the last couple of days of the month and how, after next week's ridge, a trough was building back into the east after about 1/27. It's something to monitor, but at the very least, we get sharply colder for a couple of days before higher heights begin building back into the east. It's beyond that where things become uncertain as the pattern continues to reshuffle. Also, the GFS is trending slightly cooler with next week's temperatures. There looks to be rain opportunities from about Wednesday through Sunday. The timing of the clouds, rain, and passage of the front next weekend will determine whether there can be widespread low 70s or just mid-upper 60s, especially for Richmond and points north and west, as C VA could be influenced by what looks to be a CAD signature for part of that stretch. Below are the 1pm temperatures for next Wednesday through Saturday on today's 12Z GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 Unless somehow that shortwave around the 28th-1st turns into something (which is a long shot for us this far south), it's still looking like ~2/10 and later for any significant chance of snow opportunities. Below are the H5 maps from today's 12Z GEFS (hour 384) and EPS (hour 360). After the storm around the 28th-1st moves away, a couple days of cold follow it before there is ridging building back into the east, and we moderate. _______________________________________________________________________________ Today's Euro weeklies show the change around the 10th. Here is the look on 10 FEB as the trough is beginning to move back toward the east coast with increasing heights in the EPO, AO, NAO domains. The only teleconnection that doesn't look great continues to be the PNA (lack of a west ridge), but the euro weeklies do show it neutral to slightly positive. FEB 10th FEB 15th FEB 20th FEB 25th MAR 1st MAR 6th _______________________________________________________________________________ After the 10th is when the snowfall mean begins to increase, with the period from about the 15th to March 1st being the highest. _______________________________________________________________________________ The below snow charts take longer to update, but these are from the run two days ago, and you can see snow hits begin to increase in earnest after about the 10/12th at Richmond and Norfolk. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 hours ago, RIC Airport said: Unless somehow that shortwave around the 28th-1st turns into something (which is a long shot for us this far south), it's still looking like ~2/10 and later for any significant chance of snow opportunities. Below are the H5 maps from today's 12Z GEFS (hour 384) and EPS (hour 360). After the storm around the 28th-1st moves away, a couple days of cold follow it before there is ridging building back into the east, and we moderate. _______________________________________________________________________________ Today's Euro weeklies show the change around the 10th. Here is the look on 10 FEB as the trough is beginning to move back toward the east coast with increasing heights in the EPO, AO, NAO domains. The only teleconnection that doesn't look great continues to be the PNA (lack of a west ridge), but the euro weeklies do show it neutral to slightly positive. FEB 10th FEB 15th FEB 20th FEB 25th MAR 1st MAR 6th _______________________________________________________________________________ After the 10th is when the snowfall mean begins to increase, with the period from about the 15th to March 1st being the highest. _______________________________________________________________________________ The snow below snow charts take longer to update, but these are from the run two days ago, and you can see snow hits begin to increase in earnest after about the 10/12th at Richmond and Norfolk. We can still hope 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 3 hours ago, ldub23 said: We can still hope The end of the 18Z GEFS indicates an earlier change. Let's hope there is an earlier shift. Also, one ensemble member obliterated NC and SE VA from the 4th to the 5th of February with 14" of snow falling at Norfolk and 18" at Elizabeth City. Only one member, but it could be a sign we could be back in the game sooner than we think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 10 hours ago, RIC Airport said: The end of the 18Z GEFS indicates an earlier change. Let's hope there is an earlier shift. Also, one ensemble member obliterated NC and SE VA from the 4th to the 5th of February with 14" of snow falling at Norfolk and 18" at Elizabeth City. Only one member, but it could be a sign we could be back in the game sooner than we think. I wish that was right. On the other hand these are the temps at 384hrs at midnight i think. Very warm. Feb 07 is when normals start rising. The low that did have a little promise as some snow is now just way too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 2 hours ago, ldub23 said: I wish that was right. On the other hand these are the temps at 384hrs at midnight i think. Very warm. Feb 07 is when normals start rising. The low that did have a little promise as some snow is now just way too warm. I posted that only to increase hope, not to say I genuinely believed it. Plus, as was shown, only one member had it, while others were warm and rainy. Also, later runs of the GEFS took it away, so it's not surprising the operational GFS you posted didnt match that one snowy member from yesterday's 18Z GEFS. So, as I've shared with you, look at the ensembles and identify trends rather than posting the 384-hour operational GFS and taking it as gospel. I highlighted earlier that the pattern should become more favorable as we progress in February, particularly after about February 10th, based on what I see now. But, it's beyond that, probably mid to late February into early March when it looked the best. Until I begin seeing the ensembles trend earlier, that's what I'll be sticking to. And while it's past peak climate, it can still snow in our region in late February and early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 One ray of sunshine is the cold comes back better at 0Z than 18z 18z 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 0Z Temps 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 57 minutes ago, ldub23 said: 0Z Temps 18z It looks to be a fairly potent shot of cold. It also tried to bring snow with the passage of the cold front on the 31st. Then ridging returns to the east, and we moderate for at least several days, but it probably won't be as mild as what we'll see later this week. But, even the warm-up in early February looks temporary because the pattern is reshuffling into what looks to be something more favorable somewhere around the 10th and later. This window could still shift to the left or right, but something more wintery for the east is what most long-range models agree on. Hopefully this time our area can score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 06z is alot cooler than yesterdays runs but no big snow Almost at 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Looks like models are trying to Tamp down the 14-day warm up. Maybe a back door front later this weekend followed by normal temperatures. Doesn't look as toasty as it did two days ago that's for sure. All very good steps going forward. Cold trying to build back into Eastern Canada. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 Doesn't exactly jive with how the last 24 hours of the GFS depicted the first week of February, but the updated Euro weeklies continued to paint the theme of a warm early February followed by a cold 2nd half of the month and into March, which you can see in the animation below. Also, the snow mean ticked up from the other day. Although there are still some shutouts, quite a few members have > 10" of snow at RIC, some even around 20"+, through the period ending March 8th. There are more shutouts for Norfolk and Elizabeth City, but there still appears to be some hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 So, looking at the temperatures on the 18z GFS ensembles, it's still a pretty mild look through the first seven days of February. Yes, we cool down after this weekend, but it's only for a few days before we begin a slight moderation again. It's not a torch, but it still would yield slightly positive departures from the average. So, today's Euro weeklies are on par with expectations that the 9th to 15th is (hopefully) the transition period to a colder pattern with legitimate snow chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 10 hours ago, RIC Airport said: So, looking at the temperatures on the 18z GFS ensembles, it's still a pretty mild look through the first seven days of February. Yes, we cool down after this weekend, but it's only for a few days before we begin a slight moderation again. It's not a torch, but it still would yield slightly positive departures from the average. So, today's Euro weeklies are on par with expectations that the 9th to 15th is (hopefully) the transition period to a colder pattern with legitimate snow chances. Agreed, I never really expected much before Feb 15th. All the guidance has been around 8-15th for the transition to occur . No can kicking at least. NAO/AO is getting ready to tank from positive and should be negative by early Feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 My fear every year living down here is there's never a cold enough stretch to totally kill the bugs. These last 6 days should do the trick. Anything else after this for me down on the coast is gravy. As you see my bar is very very low. Not many wish for a cold enough winter period to kill bugs. Any snow is a bonus. Looks like mid-February through mid-march will be active. March these days is much better than December and we can now start talking about severe season soon. I know. Depressing to many. Nothing scientific in my post. Obviously we are in the doldrums of midwinter with not much going on for at least 10 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 GFS has 2 possibiities but they both die out before they get here. 198 360 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, Stormpc said: My fear every year living down here is there's never a cold enough stretch to totally kill the bugs. These last 6 days should do the trick. Anything else after this for me down on the coast is gravy. As you see my bar is very very low. Not many wish for a cold enough winter period to kill bugs. Any snow is a bonus. Looks like mid-February through mid-march will be active. March these days is much better than December and we can now start talking about severe season soon. I know. Depressing to many. Nothing scientific in my post. Obviously we are in the doldrums of midwinter with not much going on for at least 10 days. I also suspect it was cold enough to kill them off, which I agree is a good thing. It will certainly feel like spring this week and it will turn humid, too! Really hoping we can score in February and March with some good cold and snow, it's been disappointing for our area and it sucks we were so close to seeing decent snow last week. 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: GFS has 2 possibiities but they both die out before they get here. 198 360 For hour 198, while there's been a few operational GFS runs showing snow around the 31st, I would not bet on it with the set up. Also, it doesn't have ensemble support nor has the Euro/EPS consistently supported it. @ldub23, I like this set up between hour 348 and 360 on the 6Z GFS. There is a strong high over the Great Lakes with moisture overrunning to the south. The problem I see right now is, it's way out there (300+ hours), it's also a completely new scenario from the 00Z run, which you can see in the 3rd and 4th map below, and it did not have ensemble support (they look rainy). Obviously we hope later runs have this set up, but we need more consistency before we take it seriously. These are those two maps from the 00z GFS, there is hardly any cold air east of the Rockies and completely different set up from 6z GFS. Also, there was no ensemble support on this morning 6z GEFS. But, this is meaningless with it being so far out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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