Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[eaglesin2011]

Honestly, its not certain yet in the Short Pump area ..Could still be nothing .

At this time... Wrost case senerio looks to be 1 to 2 inches, mostly on grassy surfaces...

[RIC Airport]

3 hours ago, wasnow215 said:

@RIC Airportspecific question and need your help please regarding a meeting near short pump for tomorrow very early. It’s looking like there could be an inch of snow according to the GFS right around 3 AM-5am. We may cancel or do online only? Thoughts? 

2 hours ago, RVAman said:

There will not be an inch or anywhere close to it. We may not even see any snow at all. Meeting will be fine buddy.

2 hours ago, eaglesin2011 said:

May not have anything at all but still could get snow in this area.. Its far from certain at this point but either way its shouldnt be  anything major, since temps are expected to be right around freezing or above for most of this event in this area .....

2 hours ago, RVAman said:

HRRR is showing that snow doesn't happen and rain to start. We'll see but I really don't think a meeting needs to be cancelled due to this. Just an opinion, of course. 

The issue for us is limited moisture (Trace to 0.20”) and borderline surface temperatures (32°F-35°F). The GFS is the most aggressive and farthest south with the precip shield compared to other guidance. While I admit the GFS did great identifying the placement of Monday’s snow band, I have low confidence snow will accumulate this far south. But other areas north and northwest of the city have a shot, especially north of Ashland toward Fredericksburg, where more moisture will be available. 

The 12Z 3K NAM (below) depicts this thinking, although its radar simulation does clip areas as far south as Short Pump and Ashland with snow between 4 am and 7 am, while the city and points south might be warm enough for rain, at least for a portion of the precip. It also tried to bring some snow/rain showers on the back side of the low tomorrow evening as colder air is rushing in.

 

The 12Z HRRR, on the other hand, didn’t have much precip south of Fredericksburg.

@wasnow215That said, I still would not rule out a period of light snows farther south, including the city, between 4 am and 10 am, with 4-7 am being the best chance for anything to stick since temperatures will be closest to freezing. I don’t believe it will be widespread or long-lasting enough to wreak havoc, though. The absolute worst-case scenario is probably a coating to a half-inch, IMO.

All models warm us rapidly as the morning progresses, with RIC getting into the low or mid-40s by afternoon.  

[RIC Airport]

@RVAman, @eaglesin2011The 12Z Euro was actually similar to the GFS and tries to put a heavier band of snow between 4am and 10am over the Richmond metro area. But, challenges with respect to QPF amounts and surface temperatures remain. Interestingly, the Euro does have RIC right at freezing from 7am to 9am so that would increase the odds of getting that coating to half inch in more areas if this is correct.

[JFLETCHER]

23 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

@RVAman, @eaglesin2011The 12Z Euro was actually similar to the GFS and tries to put a heavier band of snow between 4am and 10am over the Richmond metro area. But, challenges with respect to QPF amounts and surface temperatures remain. Interestingly, the Euro does have RIC right at freezing from 7am to 9am so that would increase the odds of getting that coating to half inch in more areas if this is correct.

Maybe western caroline can get a half-inch to an inch up here.

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, JFLETCHER said:

Maybe western caroline can get a half-inch to an inch up here.

Wakefield just issued an advisory for areas north of RIC and over towards the Northern Neck 1 inch, maybe 2" in spots. I hope Ladysmith can score!

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
310 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2024

VAZ509>511-190415-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.WW.Y.0003.240119T0900Z-240119T1800Z/
Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Including the cities of Louisa, Mineral, and Ashland
310 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one
  inch, with up to 2 inches possible.

* WHERE...Western Louisa, Eastern Louisa and Western Hanover
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions in Virginia or Maryland, please
call 5 1 1.

[eaglesin2011]

Yep..   Clouds moving into the area now so temps should start to drop now... See if this area can get lucky with a heavy band tommrow morning & avoid the dry air.. Not like we are missing much if it dosnt happen...

[RIC Airport]

Here are the latest maps from AKQ.

 

[Conway7305]

18z GFS has 1-2 inches for our area Friday.  Short  range models don’t agree says little to nothing.  Doesn’t matter to me anyways…lol.  Will be staying overnight on work in VA Beach…lol    

[Stormpc]

14 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

18z GFS has 1-2 inches for our area Friday.  Short  range models don’t agree says little to nothing.  Doesn’t matter to me anyways…lol.  Will be staying overnight on work in VA Beach…lol    

You see that little sliver in Northeast Virginia beach? Get your butt over there. Maybe if you're lucky you can catch some snowflakes on your tongue in the afternoon as she departs!!

[eaglesin2011]

current radar looks decent but really means nothing until goes over the mountains/dry air.....

[RIC Airport]

5 hours ago, Conway7305 said:

18z GFS has 1-2 inches for our area Friday.  Short  range models don’t agree says little to nothing.  Doesn’t matter to me anyways…lol.  Will be staying overnight on work in VA Beach…lol    

5 hours ago, Stormpc said:

You see that little sliver in Northeast Virginia beach? Get your butt over there. Maybe if you're lucky you can catch some snowflakes on your tongue in the afternoon as she departs!!

9 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

The 12Z 3K NAM (below) depicts this thinking, although its radar simulation does clip areas as far south as Short Pump and Ashland with snow between 4 am and 7 am, while the city and points south might be warm enough for rain, at least for a portion of the precip. It also tried to bring some snow/rain showers on the back side of the low tomorrow evening as colder air is rushing in.

I had time to look at the 18Z suite, and the idea of snow or rain streamers (snow most likely) developing behind the low tomorrow afternoon and evening as the next Arctic airmass penetrates the area is gaining traction.

Below is a slowed down 18Z 3K NAM radar simulation, which goes in motion from 1am Friday to 7am Saturday. The precipitation begins entering our region between 2am and 4am and moves out by noon. The 18Z Euro and 18Z GFS were even more aggressive with snow around Richmond in the morning.

Also, around 4pm, you can see where the 3K NAM has snow entering the region northwest of RIC and moving through Hampton Roads and the Eastern Shore between 6pm and 10pm. It looks limited, but the models are beginning to pick up on this idea of snow, even in Southside Hampton Roads, @SnowBeach@ldub23.

 

I froze the radar at 8pm below where it shows a snow squall moving east between Norfolk and Virginia Beach. The temperature at ORF is 34°F, and it's very cold aloft (850mb temps ~-10°C), so it should be snow with this approaching airmass. 

It will be interesting to see whether the 00z suite maintains this, even for your area, @Stormpc.

[SnowBeach]

Thanks for the heads up. But I’m chasing to the Shenandoah Valley as we speak. ☺️

[Stormpc]

@RIC AirportThe RGEM has that feature as well for Hampton Roads. The inverted V look. Nothing crazy exciting but something to watch. Be interesting to see where that dry slot sets up...in Central Virginia or up further in the Fredericksburg area? Then the pivot thru the DMV  and whatever scraps get caught in the flow of the departed low. There could be some instability to give those snow showers a boost with sunshine and tanking upper levels. That may be fun before the Frozen weekend begins. Anyway good stuff. Lots happening.

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, Stormpc said:

@RIC AirportThe RGEM has that feature as well for Hampton Roads. The inverted V look. Nothing crazy exciting but something to watch. Be interesting to see where that dry slot sets up...in Central Virginia or up further in the Fredericksburg area? Then the pivot thru the DMV  and whatever scraps get caught in the flow of the departed low. There could be some instability to give those snow showers a boost with sunshine and tanking upper levels. That may be fun before the Frozen weekend begins. Anyway good stuff. Lots happening.

The 00z 3K NAM only has spotty precip moving through the region between 2am and 9am. Temperatures around Richmond are 32°F-35°F while this swings through, so the model tries to depict a mix or rain from about Ashland to Tappahanock and points southward. At the same time, an area of rain is developing across Hampton Roads with temperatures around 40°F. Meanwhile, a more widespread area of snow is occurring north of about Caroline County up to DCA, so the dry slot has won according to this run, @Stormpc.

As the low pulls away to our NE, the 3K NAM tries to develop a 2nd batch of snow between 10am and 11am, which swings through the Richmond area and onto the Northern Neck between 12pm and 3pm. Temperatures are in the mid-30s, so it will probably not be easy to accumulate given the time of day.

After this, the model tries to develop snow squalls/streamers that move through the Richmond area between 4pm and 6pm and between 5pm and 10pm across Hampton Roads. I think the window over Hampton Roads is longer due to the possibility of river/bay enhancement. Not everyone will see them, and the models probably can’t pinpoint exactly where any bay enhancement will be set up if any does at all, so the location may fluctuate in later runs. Even though it’s very cold aloft, surface temperatures at the time are still just above freezing, so there would be little, if any, accumulation from these, but will be fun as you mentioned. Also this phenomenon rarely happens. NAM even has a streamer coming down the Chesapeake Bay overnight Friday, but only reaches the west coast of the Eastern Shore. 

[RIC Airport]

Did anyone see snow this morning?

RIC recorded 0.05" of rain between 5am and 6am. Also, temperatures were 3-4 degrees higher than what the 00z 3K NAM model I posted last night had. 

Also, it might've been too far south with the 2nd batch of precip. But maybe the snow streamers will verify this evening and maybe even overnight and tomorrow morning for parts of Hampton Roads.

 

[ldub23]

More rain here. Maybe a flurry  later but Alaska  has  gone  into the freezer so a  big  warm-up is  coming  here.

 

This  is fairbanks and they are way below  normal. We  need a  real pattern change  if anything is going to happen in Feb

 

 

Today

Flurries after 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near -9. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Tonight

Flurries. Partly cloudy, with a low around -22. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph after midnight.

Saturday

Flurries. Mostly sunny, with a high near -20. Wind chill values as low as -45. Northeast wind around 10 mph.

Saturday Night

Flurries before 9pm. Mostly clear, with a low around -33. Wind chill values as low as -50. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Sunday

Sunny, with a high near -32. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the morning.

Sunday Night

Patchy freezing fog after 3am. Partly cloudy, with a low around -41.

Monday

Patchy freezing fog before 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near -32.

Monday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around -37.

Tuesday

Partly sunny, with a high near -31.

Tuesday Night

A slight chance of snow after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -33.

Wednesday

A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near -27.

Wednesday Night

A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -38.

Thursday

A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near -30.

 

[eaglesin2011]

got a very light dusting in my part of Glen Allen ...  could get another flurry/ snow shower later but wouldnt count on anything more then that...

[RIC Airport]

47 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

got a very light dusting in my part of Glen Allen ...  could get another flurry/ snow shower later but wouldnt count on anything more then that...

Nice! It looks like there is a redevelopment to the north. It's just a matter of how far south it gets, but there is a good chance of some snow showers, it's just that not everyone will see them. 

 

Wakefield has also mentioned the afternoon snow shower chance. 

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

More rain here. Maybe a flurry  later but Alaska  has  gone  into the freezer so a  big  warm-up is  coming  here.

This  is fairbanks and they are way below  normal. We  need a  real pattern change  if anything is going to happen in Feb

 

It was expected and also lined up with what the ensembles have shown. The pattern is changing, and this next one will likely last about 3 weeks before it improves again. Hopefully, it's more favorable for us before we run out of time. 

[eaglesin2011]

nice snow glob snow shower going through Virginia Center Commons 

[Stormpc]

29 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Nice! It looks like there is a redevelopment to the north. It's just a matter of how far south it gets, but there is a good chance of some snow showers, it's just that not everyone will see them. 

Wakefield has also mentioned the afternoon snow shower chance. 

Per radar, that little appendage down the peninsula looks like it's starting to develop. The models have had that arm trailing the exiting storm for several runs now. I suspect there will be some convective snow showers with grauple moving from Northwest to Southeast across the area this afternoon. Won't get down to me but maybe Newport News can get in on some of the goods.

[JB Fins]

Snow flurry downtown.  I think I'll wet my pants

[RIC Airport]

49 minutes ago, JB Fins said:

Snow flurry downtown.  I think I'll wet my pants

It made it in the official ob, too!

1 hour ago, Stormpc said:

Per radar, that little appendage down the peninsula looks like it's starting to develop. The models have had that arm trailing the exiting storm for several runs now. I suspect there will be some convective snow showers with grauple moving from Northwest to Southeast across the area this afternoon. Won't get down to me but maybe Newport News can get in on some of the goods.

It's moving SE near Williamsburg and will be across Hampton Roads, soon. Actually, I'd say the 3K NAM I posted last night did pretty well today. 

 

[ldub23]

Looks like  its  moving  more east than se. 

[RIC Airport]

37 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Looks like  its  moving  more east than se. 

Yeah, seems to have waned some, too. But we won't escape the cold. Below are the Euro temps for 3pm tomorrow. Almost all stations are below freezing. 

 

But, if the Euro is correct, we are torching a week later with widespread 70s next Saturday at 1pm. This pattern change will be brutal, hopefully, we don't verify that warm and we get back to cold and snow. We get 70°F+ most of the year. 

[ldub23]

5 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Yeah, seems to have waned some, too. But we won't escape the cold. Below are the Euro temps for 3pm tomorrow. Almost all stations are below freezing. 

 

But, if the Euro is correct, we are torching a week later with widespread 70s next Saturday at 1pm. This pattern change will be brutal, hopefully, we don't verify that warm and we get back to cold and snow. We get 70°F+ most of the year. 

With Alaska so brutally  cold then we will have to have summer  in Feb. Im going to make a really  bold  prediction. Late  march thu most  of  may will be well below  normal with alot  of rain and the  low tracks will be  perfect for  snowstorms  if  it were jan/feb. 

 

Future radar  shows  no snow flurry  here today

 

https://www.13newsnow.com/radar

[Stormpc]

You can bet on '70s next weekend no doubt. Until then we will enjoy winter until Tuesday. Some Echoes breaking out across North Central North Carolina/So Va. Not sure if that's in response to the H5 pass or interaction with the strengthening low and sunshine instability. I have low 50s at the house. That ain't going to make snow!!!

[ldub23]

06 GFS not as  bleak as earlier runs

 

[RIC Airport]

4 hours ago, ldub23 said:

06 GFS not as  bleak as earlier runs

The other day in this post, I mentioned how some of the ensembles were showing a snow threat in the last couple of days of the month and how, after next week's ridge, a trough was building back into the east after about 1/27. It's something to monitor, but at the very least, we get sharply colder for a couple of days before higher heights begin building back into the east. It's beyond that where things become uncertain as the pattern continues to reshuffle. 

Also, the GFS is trending slightly cooler with next week's temperatures. There looks to be rain opportunities from about Wednesday through Sunday. The timing of the clouds, rain, and passage of the front next weekend will determine whether there can be widespread low 70s or just mid-upper 60s, especially for Richmond and points north and west, as C VA could be influenced by what looks to be a CAD signature for part of that stretch.

Below are the 1pm temperatures for next Wednesday through Saturday on today's 12Z GFS.

[RIC Airport]

Unless somehow that shortwave around the 28th-1st turns into something (which is a long shot for us this far south), it's still looking like ~2/10 and later for any significant chance of snow opportunities. 

Below are the H5 maps from today's 12Z GEFS (hour 384) and EPS (hour 360). After the storm around the 28th-1st moves away, a couple days of cold follow it before there is ridging building back into the east, and we moderate. 

 

_______________________________________________________________________________

Today's Euro weeklies show the change around the 10th. Here is the look on 10 FEB as the trough is beginning to move back toward the east coast with increasing heights in the EPO, AO, NAO domains. The only teleconnection that doesn't look great continues to be the PNA (lack of a west ridge), but the euro weeklies do show it neutral to slightly positive.

FEB 10th

FEB 15th

FEB 20th

FEB 25th

MAR 1st

MAR 6th

_______________________________________________________________________________

After the 10th is when the snowfall mean begins to increase, with the period from about the 15th to March 1st being the highest. 

_______________________________________________________________________________

The below snow charts take longer to update, but these are from the run two days ago, and you can see snow hits begin to increase in earnest after about the 10/12th at Richmond and Norfolk.