Stormpc Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 14 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Seems like the snow band hasn’t moved north much Creeping now. That's great! Hopefully you guys pull out another inch or two before it's over. Not bad! Weekend thing isn't done yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 Wakefield extended the advisory until 8am. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 349 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024 VAZ060-061-068-069-512-513-515-516-160500- /O.EXT.KAKQ.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-240116T1300Z/ Prince Edward-Cumberland-Amelia-Powhatan-Eastern Hanover- Western Chesterfield- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- Including the cities of Farmville, Angola, Guinea Mills, Hawk, Raines Tavern, Reeds, Stoddert, Earls, Mannboro, Scotts Fork, Amelia Courthouse, Chula, Denaro, Jetersville, Fine Creek Mills, Flat Rock, Goodwins Store, Subletts, Worshams, Clayville, Genito, Mechanicsville, Bon Air, Midlothian, Richmond, and Sandston 349 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...Portions of central Virginia. * WHEN...Until 8 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. For the latest road conditions in Virginia or Maryland, please call 5 1 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, SoCoWx said: On the bright side, it has already snowed more this winter than last—not that that was a high bar or anything. You can only go up from nothing. I agree. I really hope this is not it for the winter. It's too bad the band didn't set up a bit farther south before moving north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Getting close to 2 inches here in Glen Allen 295 /Staples breaks the streak at least 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 GFS and Euro maintain the idea of an additional snow chance on Friday during the day, with the GFS more aggressive with its depiction. The 18Z GFS had a 12-15-hour snow window on Friday from 7am to 10pm. Temperatures look to be around 31-34°F around Richmond for most of the event but fall as the low deepens offshore to our NE and draws in colder air. Obviously, we are still a few days away, and the details could change, but based on what I mentioned earlier, this is not looking to be a big event. Also, Hampton Roads and NE NC could see some, too, @Stormpc, @ldub23, @Topher, et. al. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 13 hours ago, eaglesin2011 said: Getting close to 2 inches here in Glen Allen 295 /Staples breaks the streak at least Nice! You were lucky to be in the right spot with how the band set up. RIC officially came in at 0.5", so unless some miracle happens and another half-inch falls between now and midnight, the streak with less than 1.0" continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Yep hanging on to the back edge . Still coming down nicely at the moment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Looks to be filling back in around Danville but a dry slot between there and Lynchburg opening up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Currently at 3”- definitely better than models were showing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, Sernest14 said: Looks to be filling back in around Danville but a dry slot between there and Lynchburg opening up 1 hour ago, Sernest14 said: Currently at 3”- definitely better than models were showing! I'm glad it worked out. It's always great when events overperform. At 7pm, the temperature was still 32°F at RIC, and no model yesterday had it that cold this late. It's too bad there is no precip, but even if there had been and based on the 850mb temp map below, that pesky sleet line would still be somewhere near the city thanks to the developing surface low off the coast and pushing warmer air northward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Looks like we have another little shot with this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 The 00Z HRRR continues to lift the snow band toward the DC metro area. However, mixed precipitation continues to develop periodically as far south as the Richmond metro area throughout the night and into tomorrow morning. Temperatures look to remain steady around freezing. It has areas SE of Richmond, including Hampton Roads, that are mostly dry, but you could still see spotty light rain since temperatures in this area stay well above freezing. Around 10 am tomorrow, HRRR has a more widespread band of precipitation developing across the Richmond Metro and then moving SE toward Hampton Roads. Verbatim, the temperature at RIC is around 34°F-35°F, so it’s rain when it begins. Still, temperatures drop to around freezing during the precip, so it transitions to a mix and finally snow before ending and moving east between 2 pm and 3 pm. This transition to a mix and snow could occur as far east as Williamsburg, the middle peninsula, and the northern neck. Areas east and SE of Williamsburg see just rain with this precip patch. Should the temperatures stay 2-3 degrees colder than the model indicates, there could be more widespread frozen precip around Richmond tomorrow morning into the afternoon with this development. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The 00Z HRRR continues to lift the snow band toward the DC metro area. However, mixed precipitation continues to develop periodically as far south as the Richmond metro area throughout the night and into tomorrow morning. Temperatures look to remain steady around freezing. It has areas SE of Richmond, including Hampton Roads, that are mostly dry, but you could still see spotty light rain since temperatures in this area stay well above freezing. Around 10 am tomorrow, HRRR has a more widespread band of precipitation developing across the Richmond Metro and then moving SE toward Hampton Roads. Verbatim, the temperature at RIC is around 34°F-35°F, so it’s rain when it begins. Still, temperatures drop to around freezing during the precip, so it transitions to a mix and finally snow before ending and moving east between 2 pm and 3 pm. This transition to a mix and snow could occur as far east as Williamsburg, the middle peninsula, and the northern neck. Areas east and SE of Williamsburg see just rain with this precip patch. Should the temperatures stay 2-3 degrees colder than the model indicates, there could be more widespread frozen precip around Richmond tomorrow morning into the afternoon with this development. HRRR has been awful with this storm so far (at least for our area). it has wanted to continue to push the precip more due north than a more ENE direction which is what we saw all day. I feel like every run they had precip out of our area within the hour 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 35 minutes ago, Sernest14 said: HRRR has been awful with this storm so far (at least for our area). it has wanted to continue to push the precip more due north than a more ENE direction which is what we saw all day. I feel like every run they had precip out of our area within the hour Yeah, I agree it hasn't been great, especially when I was looking yesterday and comparing to what happened today. FWIW, the 00z 3K NAM followed a similar theme, although it seems slower than the HRRR with the snow band's northward movement. Also, it's far more aggressive with overnight mixed precip from the Richmond metro and points north and west. Unfortunately, it will be mixed precip because the low-forming offshore pushes in warm air at 850 MB. The 0C line gets as far north as PHL by sunrise, so even DCA, BWI, and such will eventually mix. The 3K NAM has the next heaviest batch of precip moving into the Richmond area between 8 am and 9 am and ending around 2 pm. Hampton Roads thereafter, but the 3K NAM wasn't as aggressive with a transition to mix or snow for the eastern areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 GFS is more aggressive with the changeover than 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 58 minutes ago, ldub23 said: GFS is more aggressive with the changeover than 18z Frozen precip chances look better on the 00z GFS for areas east and SE of RIC. The challenge for Hampton Roads will be surface temperatures and fighting warm air aloft at 850MB. Both eventually fall as the afternoon progresses, but I wonder whether anything will be meaningful there. The GFS has RIC rising to 33°F by 1am (it's 31°F at 11pm), rising to 35 by 6am, and remaining above freezing until 2pm. So unlike the 00Z HRRR and 3K NAM I showed, it keeps any frozen precip confined to areas north of RIC until about 1pm when both surface and 850mb temps fall below freezing. 850s cool to 0°F at Norfolk by 4pm, but surface temperatures throughout Hampton Roads are still in the mid-upper 30s. Norfolk does not even drop to freezing on the GFS until 9pm. The model does try to accumulate snow between Richmond and Williamsburg and up to the Northern Neck. This is just one model depiction, as we know things can and probably will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: Frozen precip chances look better on the 00z GFS for areas east and SE of RIC. The challenge for Hampton Roads will be surface temperatures and fighting warm air aloft at 850MB. Both eventually fall as the afternoon progresses, but I wonder whether anything will be meaningful there. The GFS has RIC rising to 33°F by 1am (it's 31°F at 11pm), rising to 35 by 6am, and remaining above freezing until 2pm. So unlike the 00Z HRRR and 3K NAM I showed, it keeps any frozen precip confined to areas north of RIC until about 1pm when both surface and 850mb temps fall below freezing. 850s cool to 0°F at Norfolk by 4pm, but surface temperatures throughout Hampton Roads are still in the mid-upper 30s. Norfolk does not even drop to freezing on the GFS until 9pm. The model does try to accumulate snow between Richmond and Williamsburg and up to the Northern Neck. This is just one model depiction, as we know things can and probably will change. I have given up on accumulating snow till next winter. Just hoping for a flurry now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 9 hours ago, RIC Airport said: The 3K NAM has the next heaviest batch of precip moving into the Richmond area between 8 am and 9 am and ending around 2 pm. Hampton Roads thereafter, but the 3K NAM wasn't as aggressive with a transition to mix or snow for the eastern areas. Radar has that next batch of precip to the west. Richmond is still 31°F. Wakefield extended the advisory for RIC N & W until 11am. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 614 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2024 VAZ060-061-068-069-512-513-515-516-161600- /O.CON.KAKQ.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-240116T1600Z/ Prince Edward-Cumberland-Amelia-Powhatan-Eastern Hanover- Western Chesterfield- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- Including the cities of Farmville, Angola, Guinea Mills, Hawk, Raines Tavern, Reeds, Stoddert, Earls, Mannboro, Scotts Fork, Amelia Courthouse, Chula, Denaro, Jetersville, Fine Creek Mills, Flat Rock, Goodwins Store, Subletts, Worshams, Clayville, Genito, Mechanicsville, Bon Air, Midlothian, Richmond, and Sandston 614 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Freezing rain. Additional ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...Portions of central Virginia. * WHEN...Until 11 AM EST this morning. * IMPACTS...Very slippery sidewalks, roads and bridges are possible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible power outages. For the latest road conditions in Virginia or Maryland, please call 5 1 1. For the latest road information in North Carolina, go to http://DriveNC.gov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Probably will warm up just enough to avoid any more snow (except possibly on the very back end of that precip) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 Friday still has decent support for additional snow, but we are on the southern end once again, and temperatures are around freezing or slightly above. The 6Z Euro only goes out to 90 hours, so there may be more snow afterward this hour. But this is how it looks, just something to monitor in later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 30 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Friday still has decent support for additional snow, but we are on the southern end once again, and temperatures are around freezing or slightly above. The 6Z Euro only goes out to 90 hours, so there may be more snow afterward this hour. But this is how it looks, just something to monitor in later runs. Agree but not ready to toss in the towel yet. It's moving too fast to phase that's for sure for now but again something to watch. I do think we will all see some flakes out of this one. I'll take scraps at this point. I moved down here knowing there was little chance, so I don't get too hung up on things. NAM was pretty good inside 48 with this one. They all had the general idea, Richmond and North. Amounts were spot on too. 2-6 RIC to BWI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 The 12Z GFS has snow possibly creeping into the area late Thursday evening and becoming more widespread between 4 am and 7 am Friday. It has the highest snow chances from 10 am to 4 pm, including the Hampton Roads area. Surface temperatures look marginal. Verbatim, GFS has RIC at 31°F at 7 am Friday, but by 9 am, the temp is at 33°F peaking to 37°F at 2 pm before falling and not reaching freezing again until 8 pm. Most of Hampton Roads is in the mid-30s during the event. 850mb temps are below 0°C for all areas, so any precip that falls should be snow, but may struggle to accumulate. However, the GFS snow map does indicate minor accumulations across our region. As stated previously, the challenge for us is we needed a deeper trough so that the energy goes south of us, allowing the trough to become negatively tilted, which would pull the storm closer to the coast around our latitude. Unfortunately, with the current setup, by the time this happens, the storm is already too far north and east of us. But, there is enough energy nearby that will still generate moisture in our area, especially as the low forms and deepens offshore as it pulls away. The signal is also there on the GEFS, but the mean for all 30 members shows about a 30-50% chance of an inch or more of snow in the Richmond area and only a 10-20% chance for Hampton Roads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 6 hours ago, RIC Airport said: Radar has that next batch of precip to the west. Richmond is still 31°F. Wakefield extended the advisory for RIC N & W until 11am. 5 hours ago, eaglesin2011 said: Probably will warm up just enough to avoid any more snow (except possibly on the very back end of that precip) I am impressed with the batch of freezing rain that came through the Richmond area the last few hours. RIC has not been above freezing since about 2:20pm yesterday. The 00Z 3K NAM from last night (see earlier post) did a remarkable job seeing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: The 12Z GFS has snow possibly creeping into the area late Thursday evening and becoming more widespread between 4 am and 7 am Friday. It has the highest snow chances from 10 am to 4 pm, including the Hampton Roads area. Surface temperatures look marginal. Verbatim, GFS has RIC at 31°F at 7 am Friday, but by 9 am, the temp is at 33°F peaking to 37°F at 2 pm before falling and not reaching freezing again until 8 pm. Most of Hampton Roads is in the mid-30s during the event. 850mb temps are below 0°C for all areas, so any precip that falls should be snow, but may struggle to accumulate. However, the GFS snow map does indicate minor accumulations across our region. As stated previously, the challenge for us is we needed a deeper trough so that the energy goes south of us, allowing the trough to become negatively tilted, which would pull the storm closer to the coast around our latitude. Unfortunately, with the current setup, by the time this happens, the storm is already too far north and east of us. But, there is enough energy nearby that will still generate moisture in our area, especially as the low forms and deepens offshore as it pulls away. The signal is also there on the GEFS, but the mean for all 30 members shows about a 30-50% chance of an inch or more of snow in the Richmond area and only a 10-20% chance for Hampton Roads. The Euro was not as aggressive with Friday's snow for our region. Timing is similar to the GFS and surface temperature challenges remain. In fact, Euro even paints that some of the precip from Richmond and points south and east could fall as rain. It's becoming apparent that the best places to be for this event are toward CHO and north of Caroline County toward DCA. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 The short-range models are getting closer within range and the 18z 12k NAM is coming in more aggressive for the Richmond area and points north. This model has the best chance of snow between 7am and 1pm Friday morning, which is a great window if you want snow to stick. If this is a trend, we would want this to trend farther south over time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 This thing looks more like a Clipper than anything else now. Rounding the base further south, which is nice but needs to slow down to get us Coastal folks some action. Good luck up north....another one missed for us down south and east. Still be watching. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I’ll be in VA Beach this Friday so nothing there. Still hope Feb pans out for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 18 minutes ago, Stormpc said: This thing looks more like a Clipper than anything else now. Rounding the base further south, which is nice but needs to slow down to get us Coastal folks some action. Good luck up north....another one missed for us down south and east. Still be watching. I am hoping for a miracle because although we have a nice stretch of cold the next 5 or 6 days, snow chances look bleak for a while after Friday. We just have to push through a pattern change, which will significantly increase our temperatures. It could get very warm in about ten days as we lose the -NAO/-AO and ridging develops in the east. Temperatures could go as high as the mid-upper 60s, maybe even the 70s in spots, before it gets better. @Conway7305the good news is there are signs this warmer pattern will be short-lived. The EPS shows troughing developing in the east after about 1/27, with the PNA trending positive, the EPO turning neutral to somewhat negative, while the AO and NAO trend toward negative. That should help transport cold into the east as the pattern (hopefully) shuffles into an even more favorable pattern as we get into February. Also, some of the EPS members are already signaling a snowstorm threat the last few days of the month. So, we'll see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 51 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: I am hoping for a miracle because although we have a nice stretch of cold the next 5 or 6 days, snow chances look bleak for a while after Friday. We just have to push through a pattern change, which will significantly increase our temperatures. It could get very warm in about ten days as we lose the -NAO/-AO and ridging develops in the east. Temperatures could go as high as the mid-upper 60s, maybe even the 70s in spots, before it gets better. @Conway7305the good news is there are signs this warmer pattern will be short-lived. The EPS shows troughing developing in the east after about 1/27, with the PNA trending positive, the EPO turning neutral to somewhat negative, while the AO and NAO trend toward negative. That should help transport cold into the east as the pattern (hopefully) shuffles into an even more favorable pattern as we get into February. Also, some of the EPS members are already signaling a snowstorm threat the last few days of the month. So, we'll see. Thanks for the update! I don’t mind a brief warmup. May play a round of golf end of next week. Rooting for a cold/snowy Feb-March. Hopefully the MJO can also swing back to 8-1-2 in Feb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, Conway7305 said: Thanks for the update! I don’t mind a brief warmup. May play a round of golf end of next week. Rooting for a cold/snowy Feb-March. Hopefully the MJO can also swing back to 8-1-2 in Feb Yeah, I agree. I could use a break from tracking snow. A lot of late nights staying up for the Euro and being glued to every model suite with curiosity and seeking the big one can get exhausting after about 2 weeks. It's too bad we didn't get a HECS to make it worthwhile, but this is my hobby, and I'll be right back at it at signs of the next legitimate threat. I am not as versed in things like SSW events and the MJO, but I know those are the phases we want to be in. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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