Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[RIC Airport]

58 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

GFS is  more aggressive with the changeover than 18z

Frozen precip chances look better on the 00z GFS for areas east and SE of RIC. The challenge for Hampton Roads will be surface temperatures and fighting warm air aloft at 850MB. Both eventually fall as the afternoon progresses, but I wonder whether anything will be meaningful there. 

The GFS has RIC rising to 33°F by 1am (it's 31°F at 11pm), rising to 35 by 6am, and remaining above freezing until 2pm. So unlike the 00Z HRRR and 3K NAM I showed, it keeps any frozen precip confined to areas north of RIC until about 1pm when both surface and 850mb temps fall below freezing. 850s cool to 0°F at Norfolk by 4pm, but surface temperatures throughout Hampton Roads are still in the mid-upper 30s. Norfolk does not even drop to freezing on the GFS until 9pm. The model does try to accumulate snow between Richmond and Williamsburg and up to the Northern Neck.

This is just one model depiction, as we know things can and probably will change. 

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

Frozen precip chances look better on the 00z GFS for areas east and SE of RIC. The challenge for Hampton Roads will be surface temperatures and fighting warm air aloft at 850MB. Both eventually fall as the afternoon progresses, but I wonder whether anything will be meaningful there. 

The GFS has RIC rising to 33°F by 1am (it's 31°F at 11pm), rising to 35 by 6am, and remaining above freezing until 2pm. So unlike the 00Z HRRR and 3K NAM I showed, it keeps any frozen precip confined to areas north of RIC until about 1pm when both surface and 850mb temps fall below freezing. 850s cool to 0°F at Norfolk by 4pm, but surface temperatures throughout Hampton Roads are still in the mid-upper 30s. Norfolk does not even drop to freezing on the GFS until 9pm. The model does try to accumulate snow between Richmond and Williamsburg and up to the Northern Neck.

This is just one model depiction, as we know things can and probably will change. 

 

I  have  given up on accumulating  snow till next winter. Just hoping for a flurry  now.

[RIC Airport]

9 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

The 3K NAM has the next heaviest batch of precip moving into the Richmond area between 8 am and 9 am and ending around 2 pm. Hampton Roads thereafter, but the 3K NAM wasn't as aggressive with a transition to mix or snow for the eastern areas. 

Radar has that next batch of precip to the west.

Richmond is still 31°F. Wakefield extended the advisory for RIC N & W until 11am. 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
614 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2024

VAZ060-061-068-069-512-513-515-516-161600-
/O.CON.KAKQ.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-240116T1600Z/
Prince Edward-Cumberland-Amelia-Powhatan-Eastern Hanover-
Western Chesterfield-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Including the cities of Farmville, Angola, Guinea Mills, Hawk,
Raines Tavern, Reeds, Stoddert, Earls, Mannboro, Scotts Fork,
Amelia Courthouse, Chula, Denaro, Jetersville, Fine Creek Mills,
Flat Rock, Goodwins Store, Subletts, Worshams, Clayville, Genito,
Mechanicsville, Bon Air, Midlothian, Richmond, and Sandston
614 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Freezing rain. Additional ice accumulations of a light
  glaze.

* WHERE...Portions of central Virginia.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Very slippery sidewalks, roads and bridges are
  possible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible
power outages.

For the latest road conditions in Virginia or Maryland, please
call 5 1 1. For the latest road information in North Carolina, go
to http://DriveNC.gov.

[eaglesin2011]

Probably will warm up just enough to avoid any more snow (except possibly on the very back end of that precip) 

 

[RIC Airport]

Friday still has decent support for additional snow, but we are on the southern end once again, and temperatures are around freezing or slightly above. 

The 6Z Euro only goes out to 90 hours, so there may be more snow afterward this hour. But this is how it looks, just something to monitor in later runs.

[Stormpc]

30 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Friday still has decent support for additional snow, but we are on the southern end once again, and temperatures are around freezing or slightly above. 

The 6Z Euro only goes out to 90 hours, so there may be more snow afterward this hour. But this is how it looks, just something to monitor in later runs.

 

Agree but not ready to toss in the towel yet. It's moving too fast to phase that's for sure for now but again something to watch. I do think we will all see some flakes out of this one. I'll take scraps at this point. I moved down here knowing there was little chance, so I don't get too hung up on things. NAM was pretty good inside 48 with this one. They all had the general idea, Richmond and North. Amounts were spot on too. 2-6 RIC to BWI.

[RIC Airport]

The 12Z GFS has snow possibly creeping into the area late Thursday evening and becoming more widespread between 4 am and 7 am Friday. It has the highest snow chances from 10 am to 4 pm, including the Hampton Roads area.

Surface temperatures look marginal. Verbatim, GFS has RIC at 31°F at 7 am Friday, but by 9 am, the temp is at 33°F peaking to 37°F at 2 pm before falling and not reaching freezing again until 8 pm. Most of Hampton Roads is in the mid-30s during the event. 850mb temps are below 0°C for all areas, so any precip that falls should be snow, but may struggle to accumulate. However, the GFS snow map does indicate minor accumulations across our region. 

 

As stated previously, the challenge for us is we needed a deeper trough so that the energy goes south of us, allowing the trough to become negatively tilted, which would pull the storm closer to the coast around our latitude. Unfortunately, with the current setup, by the time this happens, the storm is already too far north and east of us. But, there is enough energy nearby that will still generate moisture in our area, especially as the low forms and deepens offshore as it pulls away.

 

The signal is also there on the GEFS, but the mean for all 30 members shows about a 30-50% chance of an inch or more of snow in the Richmond area and only a 10-20% chance for Hampton Roads. 

[RIC Airport]

6 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

Radar has that next batch of precip to the west.

Richmond is still 31°F. Wakefield extended the advisory for RIC N & W until 11am. 

 

5 hours ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Probably will warm up just enough to avoid any more snow (except possibly on the very back end of that precip) 

I am impressed with the batch of freezing rain that came through the Richmond area the last few hours. RIC has not been above freezing since about 2:20pm yesterday. 

The 00Z 3K NAM from last night (see earlier post) did a remarkable job seeing this.

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

The 12Z GFS has snow possibly creeping into the area late Thursday evening and becoming more widespread between 4 am and 7 am Friday. It has the highest snow chances from 10 am to 4 pm, including the Hampton Roads area.

Surface temperatures look marginal. Verbatim, GFS has RIC at 31°F at 7 am Friday, but by 9 am, the temp is at 33°F peaking to 37°F at 2 pm before falling and not reaching freezing again until 8 pm. Most of Hampton Roads is in the mid-30s during the event. 850mb temps are below 0°C for all areas, so any precip that falls should be snow, but may struggle to accumulate. However, the GFS snow map does indicate minor accumulations across our region. 

As stated previously, the challenge for us is we needed a deeper trough so that the energy goes south of us, allowing the trough to become negatively tilted, which would pull the storm closer to the coast around our latitude. Unfortunately, with the current setup, by the time this happens, the storm is already too far north and east of us. But, there is enough energy nearby that will still generate moisture in our area, especially as the low forms and deepens offshore as it pulls away.

The signal is also there on the GEFS, but the mean for all 30 members shows about a 30-50% chance of an inch or more of snow in the Richmond area and only a 10-20% chance for Hampton Roads. 

 

The Euro was not as aggressive with Friday's snow for our region. Timing is similar to the GFS and surface temperature challenges remain. In fact, Euro even paints that some of the precip from Richmond and points south and east could fall as rain. 

It's becoming apparent that the best places to be for this event are toward CHO and north of Caroline County toward DCA. 

[RIC Airport]

The short-range models are getting closer within range and the 18z 12k NAM is coming in more aggressive for the Richmond area and points north. This model has the best chance of snow between 7am and 1pm Friday morning, which is a great window if you want snow to stick. If this is a trend, we would want this to trend farther south over time. 

 

 

 

[Stormpc]

This thing looks more like a Clipper than anything else now. Rounding the base further south, which is nice but needs to slow down to get us Coastal folks some action. Good luck up north....another one missed for us down south and east.  Still be watching.

[Conway7305]

I’ll be in VA Beach this Friday so nothing there.  Still hope Feb pans out for us.  

[RIC Airport]

18 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

This thing looks more like a Clipper than anything else now. Rounding the base further south, which is nice but needs to slow down to get us Coastal folks some action. Good luck up north....another one missed for us down south and east.  Still be watching.

I am hoping for a miracle because although we have a nice stretch of cold the next 5 or 6 days, snow chances look bleak for a while after Friday.

 

 

We just have to push through a pattern change, which will significantly increase our temperatures. It could get very warm in about ten days as we lose the -NAO/-AO and ridging develops in the east. Temperatures could go as high as the mid-upper 60s, maybe even the 70s in spots, before it gets better. 

 

@Conway7305the good news is there are signs this warmer pattern will be short-lived. The EPS shows troughing developing in the east after about 1/27, with the PNA trending positive, the EPO turning neutral to somewhat negative, while the AO and NAO trend toward negative. That should help transport cold into the east as the pattern (hopefully) shuffles into an even more favorable pattern as we get into February. 

 

Also, some of the EPS members are already signaling a snowstorm threat the last few days of the month. So, we'll see.

 

 

[Conway7305]

51 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

I am hoping for a miracle because although we have a nice stretch of cold the next 5 or 6 days, snow chances look bleak for a while after Friday.

 

 

We just have to push through a pattern change, which will significantly increase our temperatures. It could get very warm in about ten days as we lose the -NAO/-AO and ridging develops in the east. Temperatures could go as high as the mid-upper 60s, maybe even the 70s in spots, before it gets better. 

 

@Conway7305the good news is there are signs this warmer pattern will be short-lived. The EPS shows troughing developing in the east after about 1/27, with the PNA trending positive, the EPO turning neutral to somewhat negative, while the AO and NAO trend toward negative. That should help transport cold into the east as the pattern (hopefully) shuffles into an even more favorable pattern as we get into February. 

 

Also, some of the EPS members are already signaling a snowstorm threat the last few days of the month. So, we'll see.

 

 

Thanks for the update!  I don’t mind a brief warmup.  May play a round of golf end of next week.  Rooting for a cold/snowy Feb-March.   Hopefully the MJO can also swing back to 8-1-2 in Feb

 

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, Conway7305 said:

Thanks for the update!  I don’t mind a brief warmup.  May play a round of golf end of next week.  Rooting for a cold/snowy Feb-March.   Hopefully the MJO can also swing back to 8-1-2 in Feb

Yeah, I agree. I could use a break from tracking snow. A lot of late nights staying up for the Euro and being glued to every model suite with curiosity and seeking the big one can get exhausting after about 2 weeks. It's too bad we didn't get a HECS to make it worthwhile, but this is my hobby, and I'll be right back at it at signs of the next legitimate threat.

I am not as versed in things like SSW events and the MJO, but I know those are the phases we want to be in. 

[ldub23]

18Z euro was a  bit  interesting for  friday

[wasnow215]

6 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

18Z euro was a  bit  interesting for  friday

Care to expand? Haha

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

18Z euro was a  bit  interesting for  friday

1 hour ago, wasnow215 said:

Care to expand? Haha

The GRAF model is really aggressive for Friday. MT, obviously is a DC TV met, but you can see what the model does in our area. Let's hope it's right!

 

[ldub23]

06 gfs doesnt even have a snow flurry  for se va on friday. Hopefully by feb 28 2025 we will have an accumulating snow

 

 

12Z nada

[RIC Airport]

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

06 gfs doesnt even have a snow flurry  for se va on friday. Hopefully by feb 28 2025 we will have an accumulating snow

12Z nada

Its snow map had a strip from Farmville through Richmond to Tappahanock and the Northern Neck. But QPF amounts are only around a tenth of an inch. If THIS GFS run is correct, the best time at RIC is between 4am and 10am. But, it did try to bring moisture into the state after 7pm with a band of moisture around RIC between 10pm and 1am. But I wonder if that's virga. The best chance for any stickage, if there will be any, would be between 4am and 7am when temps are around freezing. GFS has RIC's temps rising to 35°F by 9am and 44°F by noon. Either way, this still looks very minor.

We can enjoy the cold that comes behind it. GFS had almost all of us staying below freezing for highs on Saturday.  Then it's time to focus on identifying the next opportunity after the upcoming pattern change. Last night, several EPS members continued to signal a chance for the last few days of the month.

[eaglesin2011]

After this weekends cold shot, I personaly think we are done in this area with any accumulating snow chances for the month…

 However a few degrees/miles could be the difference again for the Thursday night / Friday storm… Tomorrow’s high temperature will give us a good indicator of what may come( if anything) if it dosnt warm up as much as expected for those of us just north of Richmond metro..

[RIC Airport]

Fwiw, here is the map AKQ put out this afternoon. From what I've seen with my own eyes and overall gut feeling, I feel this is appropriate although that doesn't mean flakes won't fall south of Kings Dominion.

 

 

I also peaked at the Euro weeklies from this morning, and early February was pretty "meh."  But, the pattern started improving after about the 10th through the end of the month and into March. I posted the 500mb height map ending at 00z on March 3rd. Once the pattern improved, it looked similar to how it looked much of the winter on the weeklies. Nonetheless, I'd rather gamble with February than December since it tends to be colder, so hopefully, it produces even if it takes until March for something good. Some other mechanisms, such as the MJO, can hopefully provide additional help. Truthfully, I was not impressed with the snowfall output, but at the same time, they've provided false hope all winter. The city snowfall charts are from the run two days ago, but the regional snowfall mean map is from today, btw.

[Conway7305]

40 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Fwiw, here is the map AKQ put out this afternoon. From what I've seen with my own eyes and overall gut feeling, I feel this is appropriate although that doesn't mean flakes won't fall south of Kings Dominion.

 

 

I also peaked at the Euro weeklies from this morning, and early February was pretty "meh."  But, the pattern started improving after about the 10th through the end of the month and into March. I posted the 500mb height map ending at 00z on March 3rd. Once the pattern improved, it looked similar to how it looked much of the winter on the weeklies. Nonetheless, I'd rather gamble with February than December since it tends to be colder, so hopefully, it produces even if it takes until March for something good. Some other mechanisms, such as the MJO, can hopefully provide additional help. Truthfully, I was not impressed with the snowfall output, but at the same time, they've provided false hope all winter. The city snowfall charts are from the run two days ago, but the regional snowfall mean map is from today, btw.

Thanks for the detailed info.  I always thought Mid Feb-March was the wheelhouse.  NAO should be Negative by then and hopefully a +PNA. 

[wasnow215]

@RIC Airportspecific question and need your help please regarding a meeting near short pump for tomorrow very early. It’s looking like there could be an inch of snow according to the GFS right around 3 AM-5am. We may cancel or do online only? Thoughts? 

[TampaMan]

28 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

@RIC Airportspecific question and need your help please regarding a meeting near short pump for tomorrow very early. It’s looking like there could be an inch of snow according to the GFS right around 3 AM-5am. We may cancel or do online only? Thoughts? 

There will not be an inch or anywhere close to it. We may not even see any snow at all. Meeting will be fine buddy.

[eaglesin2011]

24 minutes ago, RVAman said:

There will not be an inch or anywhere close to it. We may not even see any snow at all. Meeting will be fine buddy.

May not have anything at all but still could get snow in this area.. Its far from certain at this point but either way its shouldnt be  anything major, since temps are expected to be right around freezing or above for most of this event in this area .....

[TampaMan]

1 minute ago, eaglesin2011 said:

May not have anything at all but still could get snow in this area.. Its far from certain at this point but either way its shouldnt be  anything major, since temps are expected to be right around freezing or above for most of this event in this area .....

HRRR is showing that snow doesn't happen and rain to start. We'll see but I really don't think a meeting needs to be cancelled due to this. Just an opinion, of course. 

[eaglesin2011]

agree that should be no reason to cancel ...Just saying it could still snow going to depend how the two systems come togehter and the timeing/temps..

[TampaMan]

5 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

agree that should be no reason to cancel ...Just saying it could still snow going to depend how the two systems come togehter and the timeing/temps..

Fair enough!

[wasnow215]

Again looking at 12z GFS it looks again like 2am-4am snow showers and temps below 32° Short Pump area. Clearly from the city south and east nothing really at all I was just concerned about those North west areas of the city.
 

I appreciate the input from all of you!