Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[wasnow215]

25 minutes ago, JFLETCHER said:

I will take my 1-3 up here in Ladysmith. Richmond once again on the line. This is a tough system to figure out.

South of Richmond maybe. Richmond is fine. GFS has RVA jackpotted now

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

Here is the latest disco and the maps from Wakefield. I bolded part of the disco, highlighting what many of us mentioned earlier.

Total snowfall amts have now increased for this event, with 1-3 inches possible across the NNW third of the FA with 0.5-1.0 inch across the central third, and little to no accumulation across the SE third. These totals may change as we get closer to the event given uncertainties still with the evolution of the moisture/lift, timing and placement. But, based on this latest fcst, will likely be issuing Winter Weather Advisories this evening for at least nrn/NW counties for the accumulating snow possible.

AKQ issued an advisory and also ticked up totals a bit. 

[RIC Airport]

The 00z short term models have not been friendly. The snow band has shifted primarily north of Richmond. 

[Conway7305]

Looks like snow amounts unfortunately got lowered with short range 0z models.  1 inch would be max maybe 1.5.  Snow band moves north fairly quickly. Things could change.  

Still holding out for a bigger storm later in Feb hopefully. 

[Stormpc]

Slipping away to the north. Per usual last minute 50-75 mile adjustment. Never fails regardless of the scenario. Hopefully NAM is wrong.  

[Conway7305]

Now we should really just keep an eye on the HRRR which loads every hour and look at the radar feeds.  Hopefully we can get a shift back south again.  

[wasnow215]

54 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Slipping away to the north. Per usual last minute 50-75 mile adjustment. Never fails regardless of the scenario. Hopefully NAM is wrong.  

I compare rain events and NAM consistently is bad vs GFS. 

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, Stormpc said:

Slipping away to the north. Per usual last minute 50-75 mile adjustment. Never fails regardless of the scenario. Hopefully NAM is wrong.  

 

1 hour ago, Conway7305 said:

Now we should really just keep an eye on the HRRR which loads every hour and look at the radar feeds.  Hopefully we can get a shift back south again.  

 

29 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

I compare rain events and NAM consistently is bad vs GFS. 

The 00z GFS was also a step back from earlier runs, but it didnt completely shut out RIC. Still on that southern fringe, though, which is never a good place to be. 

[wasnow215]

28 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

 

 

The 00z GFS was also a step back from earlier runs, but it didnt completely shut out RIC. Still on that southern fringe, though, which is never a good place to be. 

Situation where 20 miles could mean the difference between 1 and 4 inches of snow. Maybe 10-15 miles 

[eaglesin2011]

dry air galore

[SoCoWx]

So, given the trends, what’s RIC looking like? I assume next to nothing, because that seems to be the long running normal at this point.

[ldub23]

Nothing  here  of  course, but  still ok in RIC

 

[eaglesin2011]

1 hour ago, SoCoWx said:

So, given the trends, what’s RIC looking like? I assume next to nothing, because that seems to be the long running normal at this point.

I wouldn’t expect any real accumulating snow in the Richmond area until this afternoon…

Definitely going to be a sharp cutoff & will be hard to predict what the final totals will be depending where the heaviest banding sets up.. Could be a real difference in just a few miles of a couple inches to nothing at all ..

Radar at the moment looks pretty crappy (dry air not helping)but the main precip isn’t due till later this afternoon.. Hopefully it can get itself together  by then and not warm up (just enough) to be rain or mix at that time.. That will be the key if we get a couple inches or nothing at all in this area… Definitely will be a sharp cutoff. 
 

 

 

 

[jlewis1111]

yup will be lucky if we get a inch. Even dc looks not so great. Radar looks like poop... Dry air winning?

[Conway7305]

Inch would be nice. I really hope we can get a decent storm  in Feb.  Need to kill  this terrible snow drought. I don’t know the last time we had over an inch. 

[mikeeng92]

1 minute ago, Conway7305 said:

Inch would be nice. I really hope we can get a decent storm  in Feb.  Need to kill  this terrible snow drought. I don’t know the last time we had over an inch. 

1/3/2022 I think

[mikeeng92]

Short range models develop a heavier band around Richmond in the 3-5 pm time frame. That will be our chance.

[Conway7305]

Yeah I see that as well  but also has it mixing with sleet/rain.  I honestly just want to see some snowflakes.  I think even a 1/2 inch would be generous. HRRR short range keeps getting worse for this area.  Sad that a day ago we had 4-6…..lol  

[eaglesin2011]

3 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Yeah I see that as well  but also has it mixing with sleet/rain.  I honestly just want to see some snowflakes.  I think even a 1/2 inch would be generous. HRRR short range keeps getting worse for this area.  Sad that a day ago we had 4-6…..lol  

4-6 lol? Where are you ? 
This was never predicted to be that kind of storm in the Richmond area…

 

[Stormpc]

1 minute ago, Conway7305 said:

Yeah I see that as well  but also has it mixing with sleet/rain.  I honestly just want to see some snowflakes.  I think even a 1/2 inch would be generous. HRRR short range keeps getting worse for this area.  Sad that a day ago we had 4-6…..lol  

Agree. It's slipping away to the north. Life on the southern fringe of this one was always worrisome.  Never know. Can get a quick inch or two this evening before things push up north and out. Of course I'd favor areas Ashland and north. South of Richmond and toward the airport  not so good. That initial band we hoped for on the GFS for all those days ended up again 75 to 100 miles north. Areas west of DC got their inch from that. At least something's going on. And Thursday Friday looks sort of interesting. Then it gets really cold. So not all is bad

[Conway7305]

Scroll back through the  threads  and you will see snow maps posted of the WRF and even the GFS. showing 4-6.   BTW I live in Henrico. 

[eaglesin2011]

29 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Scroll back through the  threads  and you will see snow maps posted of the WRF and even the GFS. showing 4-6.   BTW I live in Henrico. 

The fantasy maps? On one or two model runs? 
Comon now, let’s be real …lol

0 to 3 inches has been consistent for awhile now on almost all of the models (for this area)

Expecting anything more then this with this storm is wish-casting …. (I wish this would happen myself) 

This afternoon could still bring an inch or two or nothing…

YET AGAIN lol

[wasnow215]

19 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

4-6 lol? Where are you ? 
This was never predicted to be that kind of storm in the Richmond area…

 

Gfs only 10:1

[mikeeng92]

12z FV3 brings a heavy band of snow this afternoon through the west end. 

[eaglesin2011]

14 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said:

12z FV3 brings a heavy band of snow this afternoon through the west end. 

Banding is definitely going to be key wherever it sets up.. Again, it’s going to be a big difference within just a few miles.. A couple inches to nothing at all..

By 4pm we should be able to see if we are going to be totally screwed or not…

[mikeeng92]

4 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Banding is definitely going to be key wherever it sets up.. Again it’s going to be a big difference within just a few miles of a few inches to nothing at all..

By 4pm we should be able to know if we are going to be totally screwed or not

Yep, going to need some luck for sure.

Radar looks pretty good in Northern NC. HRRR starting to tick back south.

[Sernest14]

Radar looks a lot more full and expands south more, especially in carolina from what models are showing so hopefully that’s a good sign

[Conway7305]

1 hour ago, eaglesin2011 said:

The fantasy maps? On one or two model runs? 
Comon now, let’s be real …lol

0 to 3 inches has been consistent for awhile now on almost all of the models (for this area)

Expecting anything more then this with this storm is wish-casting …. (I wish this would happen myself) 

This afternoon could still bring an inch or two or nothing…

YET AGAIN lol

I was never expecting 4-6. Let me be clear.  Yesterday, several models began showing   those higher totals. These were the short range models when the storm was a day away. Several models showed higher outputs for three consecutive runs at 3-4+ I wasn’t talking about  fantasy LR  runs or  360 GFS.  Hence why I posted the maps,   Also, why a lot of other posters here showed and posted the exact  same maps I did .  Yeah it was a brief output,  but that’s what we do here. Follow the trends. Good or bad.  I guarantee the next big “potential” storm on horizon, snowfall amounts  will be posted here well before, even if it is “fantasy” That’s the fun of it. 

[wasnow215]

10 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

I was never expecting 4-6. Let me be clear.  Yesterday, several models began showing   those higher totals. These were the short range models when the storm was a day away. Several models showed higher outputs for three consecutive runs at 3-4+ I wasn’t talking about  fantasy LR  runs or  360 GFS.  Hence why I posted the maps,   Also, why a lot of other posters here showed and posted the exact  same maps I did .  Yeah it was a brief output,  but that’s what we do here. Follow the trends. Good or bad.  I guarantee the next big “potential” storm on horizon, snowfall amounts  will be posted here well before, even if it is “fantasy” That’s the fun of it. 

100% -and it looks like returns are coming in more south than some of the short term models and even the GFS had it this morning and 0Z last night. You see that @RIC Airport? Or am I having “radar hallucinations”? Haha
 

[Sernest14]

11 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

100% -and it looks like returns are coming in more south than some of the short term models and even the GFS had it this morning and 0Z last night. You see that @RIC Airport? Or am I having “radar hallucinations”? Haha
 

Seeing the same, looks like Danville area is seeing snow make it down per traffic cams so hopefully a good sign for us