eaglesin2011 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 dry air galore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 So, given the trends, what’s RIC looking like? I assume next to nothing, because that seems to be the long running normal at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 Nothing here of course, but still ok in RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 1 hour ago, SoCoWx said: So, given the trends, what’s RIC looking like? I assume next to nothing, because that seems to be the long running normal at this point. I wouldn’t expect any real accumulating snow in the Richmond area until this afternoon… Definitely going to be a sharp cutoff & will be hard to predict what the final totals will be depending where the heaviest banding sets up.. Could be a real difference in just a few miles of a couple inches to nothing at all .. Radar at the moment looks pretty crappy (dry air not helping)but the main precip isn’t due till later this afternoon.. Hopefully it can get itself together by then and not warm up (just enough) to be rain or mix at that time.. That will be the key if we get a couple inches or nothing at all in this area… Definitely will be a sharp cutoff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 yup will be lucky if we get a inch. Even dc looks not so great. Radar looks like poop... Dry air winning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 Inch would be nice. I really hope we can get a decent storm in Feb. Need to kill this terrible snow drought. I don’t know the last time we had over an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 1 minute ago, Conway7305 said: Inch would be nice. I really hope we can get a decent storm in Feb. Need to kill this terrible snow drought. I don’t know the last time we had over an inch. 1/3/2022 I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 Short range models develop a heavier band around Richmond in the 3-5 pm time frame. That will be our chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 Yeah I see that as well but also has it mixing with sleet/rain. I honestly just want to see some snowflakes. I think even a 1/2 inch would be generous. HRRR short range keeps getting worse for this area. Sad that a day ago we had 4-6…..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 3 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Yeah I see that as well but also has it mixing with sleet/rain. I honestly just want to see some snowflakes. I think even a 1/2 inch would be generous. HRRR short range keeps getting worse for this area. Sad that a day ago we had 4-6…..lol 4-6 lol? Where are you ? This was never predicted to be that kind of storm in the Richmond area… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 1 minute ago, Conway7305 said: Yeah I see that as well but also has it mixing with sleet/rain. I honestly just want to see some snowflakes. I think even a 1/2 inch would be generous. HRRR short range keeps getting worse for this area. Sad that a day ago we had 4-6…..lol Agree. It's slipping away to the north. Life on the southern fringe of this one was always worrisome. Never know. Can get a quick inch or two this evening before things push up north and out. Of course I'd favor areas Ashland and north. South of Richmond and toward the airport not so good. That initial band we hoped for on the GFS for all those days ended up again 75 to 100 miles north. Areas west of DC got their inch from that. At least something's going on. And Thursday Friday looks sort of interesting. Then it gets really cold. So not all is bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 Scroll back through the threads and you will see snow maps posted of the WRF and even the GFS. showing 4-6. BTW I live in Henrico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 29 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Scroll back through the threads and you will see snow maps posted of the WRF and even the GFS. showing 4-6. BTW I live in Henrico. The fantasy maps? On one or two model runs? Comon now, let’s be real …lol 0 to 3 inches has been consistent for awhile now on almost all of the models (for this area) Expecting anything more then this with this storm is wish-casting …. (I wish this would happen myself) This afternoon could still bring an inch or two or nothing… YET AGAIN lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 19 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: 4-6 lol? Where are you ? This was never predicted to be that kind of storm in the Richmond area… Gfs only 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 12z FV3 brings a heavy band of snow this afternoon through the west end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 14 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said: 12z FV3 brings a heavy band of snow this afternoon through the west end. Banding is definitely going to be key wherever it sets up.. Again, it’s going to be a big difference within just a few miles.. A couple inches to nothing at all.. By 4pm we should be able to see if we are going to be totally screwed or not… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 4 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: Banding is definitely going to be key wherever it sets up.. Again it’s going to be a big difference within just a few miles of a few inches to nothing at all.. By 4pm we should be able to know if we are going to be totally screwed or not Yep, going to need some luck for sure. Radar looks pretty good in Northern NC. HRRR starting to tick back south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 Radar looks a lot more full and expands south more, especially in carolina from what models are showing so hopefully that’s a good sign 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 1 hour ago, eaglesin2011 said: The fantasy maps? On one or two model runs? Comon now, let’s be real …lol 0 to 3 inches has been consistent for awhile now on almost all of the models (for this area) Expecting anything more then this with this storm is wish-casting …. (I wish this would happen myself) This afternoon could still bring an inch or two or nothing… YET AGAIN lol I was never expecting 4-6. Let me be clear. Yesterday, several models began showing those higher totals. These were the short range models when the storm was a day away. Several models showed higher outputs for three consecutive runs at 3-4+ I wasn’t talking about fantasy LR runs or 360 GFS. Hence why I posted the maps, Also, why a lot of other posters here showed and posted the exact same maps I did . Yeah it was a brief output, but that’s what we do here. Follow the trends. Good or bad. I guarantee the next big “potential” storm on horizon, snowfall amounts will be posted here well before, even if it is “fantasy” That’s the fun of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 10 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: I was never expecting 4-6. Let me be clear. Yesterday, several models began showing those higher totals. These were the short range models when the storm was a day away. Several models showed higher outputs for three consecutive runs at 3-4+ I wasn’t talking about fantasy LR runs or 360 GFS. Hence why I posted the maps, Also, why a lot of other posters here showed and posted the exact same maps I did . Yeah it was a brief output, but that’s what we do here. Follow the trends. Good or bad. I guarantee the next big “potential” storm on horizon, snowfall amounts will be posted here well before, even if it is “fantasy” That’s the fun of it. 100% -and it looks like returns are coming in more south than some of the short term models and even the GFS had it this morning and 0Z last night. You see that @RIC Airport? Or am I having “radar hallucinations”? Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 11 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: 100% -and it looks like returns are coming in more south than some of the short term models and even the GFS had it this morning and 0Z last night. You see that @RIC Airport? Or am I having “radar hallucinations”? Haha Seeing the same, looks like Danville area is seeing snow make it down per traffic cams so hopefully a good sign for us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15, 2024 Author Share Posted January 15, 2024 33 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: 100% -and it looks like returns are coming in more south than some of the short term models and even the GFS had it this morning and 0Z last night. You see that @RIC Airport? Or am I having “radar hallucinations”? Haha Definitely activity to the south of Richmond. It has that SW to NE orientation, but the band looked to be lifting north. So, I imagine precip should begin in the next couple of hours. Dew points are in the low-mid teens, and temps are in the mid-30s, but this band looks heavy enough to wet bulb us to freezing or below, hopefully. As long as the entire column is below freezing. And yes, better to see the band forming south of us than right over,@wasnow215. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15, 2024 Author Share Posted January 15, 2024 15 minutes ago, Sernest14 said: Seeing the same, looks like Danville area is seeing snow make it down per traffic cams so hopefully a good sign for us I just tried looking around Emporia, and the roads look wet, but the camera is too grainy to know that it's rain, snow....or even sleet. That is probably what the yellow colors are picking up that way. https://www.weatherbug.com/traffic-cam/?latlng=36.7029,-77.5497&camId=430919&fbclid=IwAR1ReRnrZczKGm12u22Y7P1qTxNGyC7b4wQxK8UGrzwAeGBaoHGiip7FqH8 Also, the AWOS appears to be down, lol. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kemv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 That band and orientation looks like the GFS from four or five runs ago. Short-term models didn't have that as significant. Overrunning is a tough thing to predict. Once that Coastal gets going it may push the best forcing further north, quicker than we want. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Topher Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 Very light snow in northern Newport News. Now big flakes and sleet 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 Fwiw, DT basically just called it off for RVA. Said any snow that does fall here will very quickly change over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 Snow on the I-64 cameras well South into Newport News almost to the shipyards. Meanwhile I sit at 44° with partly sunny skies South of the Border on the coast. Not this time for me. Edit: Friday's system making an abrupt comeback on 12z GFS. That's how Newport News and South can score. Still unlikely but at least there's a chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Topher Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 18 minutes ago, Topher said: Very light snow in northern Newport News. Now big flakes and sleet Dogs first snow since 2021, was in Charleston for a bit, now husband is stationed here for another couple years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 I’m working down in Williamsburg today. Just started snowing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 Yup precip light snow/rain sleet should start in the next hour or two in the Richmond/Henrico area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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