RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 38 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The 18Z GFS, like the 12Z, was cold throughout. RIC was at 46°F at 5pm. It puts RIC at 32°F at 2am tonight. I am not seeing a temp above freezing until 3am Tuesday morning. @wasnow215I should caveat by saying, that does not mean RIC can't rise above freezing in an intrahour reading, especially tomorrow afternoon around the time of the 20Z (3pm) temp map below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 16 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Southeast of the city a few degrees colder too. Just one model but it keeps trending better. I agree that we should keep that in mind. There are different scenarios on the table and it'll be interesting to see which model does the best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Max accumulations by any model projections is 7.5 inches. That would be great. My guess is between 3-4 inches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 For@ldub23 and other Hampton Roads folks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Here is the latest disco and the maps from Wakefield. I bolded part of the disco, highlighting what many of us mentioned earlier. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 410 PM EST Sunday... Late this aftn, an arctic cold front was pushing through the nrn third of the area, with just sctd SC and AC associated with the front. Otherwise, the sky was sunny or mostly sunny across the region with temps ranging from the mid 40s to the upper 50s. Winds were still gusty in advance of and behind the front with gusts to 30-35 mph. Winds become light tonight, as weak high pressure moves in with lows in the mid 20s N, to the lower to mid 30s SE under increasing and lowering clouds. Although high pressure begins to build in, it remains centered over the central CONUS with an elongated, zonal shortwave stretching from TX into VA. Hi-res CAMs now show enough forcing and moisture aloft due to this feature for at least some virga and perhaps isolated to sctd light snow showers forming late tonight across the NW half of the FA. However, the airmass near the sfc will start off very dry with dew points potentially in the single digits this evening. As such, it may take awhile for moisture aloft to saturate the profile enough for snow to make it to the ground. But, do now have 15-35% PoPs for nrn/WNW portions of the region from 6-12z Mon with a light dusting possible. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 410 PM EST Sunday... Elongated shortwave energy and increasing moisture and lift will expand over the nrn two thirds of the area Mon into Mon evening. PoPs quickly increase to 40-60% in these areas, as a band of snow develops later Mon morning into early Mon aftn, then shifts NNW later Mon aftn into Mon night. Most of the pcpn should fall as snow, although rain may mix in or become the dominant pcpn type across the SE portion of the FA during the aftn and evening when temps rise. Speaking of temps, temps will be cold with highs only in the lower to mid 30s NNW, to the upper 30s to mid 40s SSE. It is possible that the NW half of the FA doesn`t make it above freezing if snow continues through the day due to dynamic cooling. A weak surface low forms off the SE coast late Mon night, before moving NE off the Mid Atlc coast and twd the nrn Atlc Tue morning into Tue night. While this low is expected to remain weak, it may add enough moisture for PoPs to increase to 50-70% across ENE portions of the FA Tue morning into early Tue aftn. However, temps warm above freezing on Tue with a transition to rain/snow across the NNW half of the FA and mainly rain everywhere else. Pcpn will move offshore or end Tue evening/Tue night, with gradual clearing from NW to SE by Wed morning. Total snowfall amts have now increased for this event, with 1-3 inches possible across the NNW third of the FA with 0.5-1.0 inch across the central third, and little to no accumulation across the SE third. These totals may change as we get closer to the event given uncertainties still with the evolution of the moisture/lift, timing and placement. But, based on this latest fcst, will likely be issuing Winter Weather Advisories this evening for at least nrn/NW counties for the accumulating snow possible. Highs Tue in the upper 30s NNW, to the mid 40s to lower 50s SE. Very cold air moves in behind the low Tue night with lows in the mid to upper teens across much of the area, and in the lower to mid 20s SE and along the coast. This will allow for wind chills in the single digits across the N and W areas, and 10-15F across the SE late Tue night/Wed morning. Sunny or mostly sunny and cold on Wed, as high pressure builds into the region. Highs only in the mid to upper 30s. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I will take my 1-3 up here in Ladysmith. Richmond once again on the line. This is a tough system to figure out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 25 minutes ago, JFLETCHER said: I will take my 1-3 up here in Ladysmith. Richmond once again on the line. This is a tough system to figure out. South of Richmond maybe. Richmond is fine. GFS has RVA jackpotted now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: Here is the latest disco and the maps from Wakefield. I bolded part of the disco, highlighting what many of us mentioned earlier. Total snowfall amts have now increased for this event, with 1-3 inches possible across the NNW third of the FA with 0.5-1.0 inch across the central third, and little to no accumulation across the SE third. These totals may change as we get closer to the event given uncertainties still with the evolution of the moisture/lift, timing and placement. But, based on this latest fcst, will likely be issuing Winter Weather Advisories this evening for at least nrn/NW counties for the accumulating snow possible. AKQ issued an advisory and also ticked up totals a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 The 00z short term models have not been friendly. The snow band has shifted primarily north of Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Looks like snow amounts unfortunately got lowered with short range 0z models. 1 inch would be max maybe 1.5. Snow band moves north fairly quickly. Things could change. Still holding out for a bigger storm later in Feb hopefully. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Slipping away to the north. Per usual last minute 50-75 mile adjustment. Never fails regardless of the scenario. Hopefully NAM is wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Now we should really just keep an eye on the HRRR which loads every hour and look at the radar feeds. Hopefully we can get a shift back south again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 54 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Slipping away to the north. Per usual last minute 50-75 mile adjustment. Never fails regardless of the scenario. Hopefully NAM is wrong. I compare rain events and NAM consistently is bad vs GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, Stormpc said: Slipping away to the north. Per usual last minute 50-75 mile adjustment. Never fails regardless of the scenario. Hopefully NAM is wrong. 1 hour ago, Conway7305 said: Now we should really just keep an eye on the HRRR which loads every hour and look at the radar feeds. Hopefully we can get a shift back south again. 29 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: I compare rain events and NAM consistently is bad vs GFS. The 00z GFS was also a step back from earlier runs, but it didnt completely shut out RIC. Still on that southern fringe, though, which is never a good place to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 28 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The 00z GFS was also a step back from earlier runs, but it didnt completely shut out RIC. Still on that southern fringe, though, which is never a good place to be. Situation where 20 miles could mean the difference between 1 and 4 inches of snow. Maybe 10-15 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 dry air galore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 So, given the trends, what’s RIC looking like? I assume next to nothing, because that seems to be the long running normal at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Nothing here of course, but still ok in RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, SoCoWx said: So, given the trends, what’s RIC looking like? I assume next to nothing, because that seems to be the long running normal at this point. I wouldn’t expect any real accumulating snow in the Richmond area until this afternoon… Definitely going to be a sharp cutoff & will be hard to predict what the final totals will be depending where the heaviest banding sets up.. Could be a real difference in just a few miles of a couple inches to nothing at all .. Radar at the moment looks pretty crappy (dry air not helping)but the main precip isn’t due till later this afternoon.. Hopefully it can get itself together by then and not warm up (just enough) to be rain or mix at that time.. That will be the key if we get a couple inches or nothing at all in this area… Definitely will be a sharp cutoff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 yup will be lucky if we get a inch. Even dc looks not so great. Radar looks like poop... Dry air winning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Inch would be nice. I really hope we can get a decent storm in Feb. Need to kill this terrible snow drought. I don’t know the last time we had over an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, Conway7305 said: Inch would be nice. I really hope we can get a decent storm in Feb. Need to kill this terrible snow drought. I don’t know the last time we had over an inch. 1/3/2022 I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Short range models develop a heavier band around Richmond in the 3-5 pm time frame. That will be our chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Yeah I see that as well but also has it mixing with sleet/rain. I honestly just want to see some snowflakes. I think even a 1/2 inch would be generous. HRRR short range keeps getting worse for this area. Sad that a day ago we had 4-6…..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Yeah I see that as well but also has it mixing with sleet/rain. I honestly just want to see some snowflakes. I think even a 1/2 inch would be generous. HRRR short range keeps getting worse for this area. Sad that a day ago we had 4-6…..lol 4-6 lol? Where are you ? This was never predicted to be that kind of storm in the Richmond area… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, Conway7305 said: Yeah I see that as well but also has it mixing with sleet/rain. I honestly just want to see some snowflakes. I think even a 1/2 inch would be generous. HRRR short range keeps getting worse for this area. Sad that a day ago we had 4-6…..lol Agree. It's slipping away to the north. Life on the southern fringe of this one was always worrisome. Never know. Can get a quick inch or two this evening before things push up north and out. Of course I'd favor areas Ashland and north. South of Richmond and toward the airport not so good. That initial band we hoped for on the GFS for all those days ended up again 75 to 100 miles north. Areas west of DC got their inch from that. At least something's going on. And Thursday Friday looks sort of interesting. Then it gets really cold. So not all is bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Scroll back through the threads and you will see snow maps posted of the WRF and even the GFS. showing 4-6. BTW I live in Henrico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 29 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Scroll back through the threads and you will see snow maps posted of the WRF and even the GFS. showing 4-6. BTW I live in Henrico. The fantasy maps? On one or two model runs? Comon now, let’s be real …lol 0 to 3 inches has been consistent for awhile now on almost all of the models (for this area) Expecting anything more then this with this storm is wish-casting …. (I wish this would happen myself) This afternoon could still bring an inch or two or nothing… YET AGAIN lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 19 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: 4-6 lol? Where are you ? This was never predicted to be that kind of storm in the Richmond area… Gfs only 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 12z FV3 brings a heavy band of snow this afternoon through the west end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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