Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[RIC Airport]

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Still holding  out  hope for a  miracle on 06 GFS

12Z still had it. Actually, the past few runs of the GFS. I want to get excited once the Euro catches on, which is possible. I noticed the 6Z EPS improved from the 00z EPS for Friday. But, since 6z EPS only goes out to hour 144, it only captured some of the event. 

[Rhino16]

Really nice to wake up to at 12z. The closer we get, the more I trust the GFS.

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Looking like ice could be a problem on Tuesday..

I’d expect school & work closings

looks like this maybe starting Monday afternoon/night going from snow& rain back  to freezing rain back to snow as it’s pulling away..

What area exactly get dry slotted & how the waves come together or not is going to be key ..  More development off the coast could actually mean less snow / ice more rain in this area

I like how the over-running from the initial wave seems to be "trending." Of course, some models have fluctuated with how far south it developed. The farther south, the better for us, and maybe even as far SE as Newport News/Hampton. Some models have the band advancing north into NoVa and dry-slotting us quickly, while others have it lingering longer around Richmond. Some models have surface temp and 850/925mb temp issues for parts of the Richmond area, while others have the column below freezing for the entire initial wave. Also, the timing of the precip is slightly different from model to model. What was a Tuesday event is now solidly a Monday one on some. I am not a pro, but I imagine trying to put out a forecast would be frustrating. 

I have given up hope on the coastal low. It could enhance precip to an extent, but I agree that most of the precip is from the initial wave vs the coastal. 

[RIC Airport]

Here is the National Blend of Models (NBM). It runs every 3 hours, and it's basically a time-lagged blend of at least a few dozen models and ensembles. It still likely has some 06z or earlier guidance. It slowly responds if guidance continues to trend up or down, but it's what the NWS uses and should correlate to what you see in your point-and-click forecast.

FWIW, here are the last two runs. 

 

[RIC Airport]

The 12Z Euro has the snow band arriving tomorrow morning, but the bulk of the precip doesn't enter the Richmond area until around 3 or 4 pm The heavier rates from north to south are between 7pm and 1am. Surface temperatures are above freezing when the precipitation starts but drop near freezing as the snow begins. The snow band didn't hang around as long as the GFS did before lifting north. GFS has an earlier arrival of the snow (heavier rates), which helped keep surface temperatures lower.

[RIC Airport]

2 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

12Z still had it. Actually, the past few runs of the GFS. I want to get excited once the Euro catches on, which is possible. I noticed the 6Z EPS improved from the 00z EPS for Friday. But, since 6z EPS only goes out to hour 144, it only captured some of the event. 

@Conway7305, @ldub23Friday's storm was basically a snowstorm for 40N, although it does have a portion of C VA, starting off as snow between about 4am to 10am Friday morning before changing to rain. We are on the southern fringe of the entire thing. Still something to monitor in the coming days, I guess. Would be wonderful to get TWO accumulating events within a week. 

[wasnow215]

4 hours ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Looking like ice could be a problem on Tuesday..

I’d expect school & work closings

looks like this maybe starting Monday afternoon/night going from snow& rain back  to freezing rain back to snow as it’s pulling away..

What area exactly get dry slotted & how the waves come together or not is going to be key ..  More development off the coast could actually mean less snow / ice more rain in this area

I was thinking this but look at temps. It looks like surface temps don’t even get below 33-34 even Monday night into Tuesday morning. Meaning it may be difficult for snow to accumulate anywhere but the coldest surfaces Monday into Tuesday. It’s later Tuesday into Wed that the cold air really comes in after things dry out for the most part. @RIC Airport do you think this is how it plays out?

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

@Conway7305, @ldub23Friday's storm was basically a snowstorm for 40N, although it does have a portion of C VA, starting off as snow between about 4am to 10am Friday morning before changing to rain. We are on the southern fringe of the entire thing. Still something to monitor in the coming days, I guess. Would be wonderful to get TWO accumulating events within a week. 

I will wait and see what the  18z gfs shows  if anything. One thing  is  certain, there  is going to be a warm up after the  snowless  cold  in se va. Im glad  it  looks  like RIC will get at  least  several inches. I was really  hoping for  1 last  cold snowy winter in Newport  News as  i have  no idea the time  i have  left, lol

 

A the end  of the  gfs the  cold  comes  back but  will it  matter  if  it  does?

 

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, wasnow215 said:

I was thinking this but look at temps. It looks like surface temps don’t even get below 33-34 even Monday night into Tuesday morning. Meaning it may be difficult for snow to accumulate anywhere but the coldest surfaces Monday into Tuesday. It’s later Tuesday into Wed that the cold air really comes in after things dry out for the most part. @RIC Airport do you think this is how it plays out?

I am concerned about surface temperatures and worried that the snow band could position farther north and Richmond is fringed without meaningful amounts. Meaningful being like 1”+. The goal is getting 1” at the airport to end the snowless streak.

The 18Z HRRR has precip arriving tomorrow morning with surface temps around 31-32°F as the snow begins. The radar simulation shows some snow trying to start during the wee hours of the morning, but it’s probably just virga (maybe). Either way, HRRR has the bulk of the snow entering Richmond between 8am and 9am. Rates pick up, but it has snow changing to rain between 4pm and 5pm as temperatures rise to about 35-36 °F. The good news is that the bulk of the precip is over by this time. It just may mean that any snow that falls could be melted by afternoon. Then we get dry slotted and may get additional rain late Monday night into Tuesday as the coastal low gets going and starts to pull away 

Let’s hope the 12Z GFS is correct, but my gut feeling is that the 12Z run was too aggressive with snow.

[RIC Airport]

@wasnow215, The 18Z 3K NAM is similar to the 18z HRRR. Both models have a very early arrival of precip between 4am and 5am, with the heavier rates of snow arriving between 8am and 10am and lasting until about 3 or 4pm. It's around this time that precip tapers off, and surface temps remain above freezing while we are dry-slotted. As it pulls away, there could be additional rain overnight and early Tuesday from the coastal low. 

3K NAM has RIC below freezing until about 11am, so ratios could drop, and snow may not accumulate as well, even though precip rates are higher into the mid afternoon. 

[wasnow215]

Yes, I think over the years with this hobby, I have learned that just looking at the forecasted snow maps from the weather models and even the most conservative accumulation maps can bite you because temperatures mean so much. We have all seen really good chances of storms end up being “white rain” and even though it snows for a long duration, nothing really amounts from it.

[Conway7305]

Two of the short range models show us getting around 5+.WRF AR WRF AR2

This doesn’t include the 12z GFS

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-arw&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2024011412&fh=48

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-arw2&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2024011412&fh=40

[Stormpc]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

I will wait and see what the  18z gfs shows  if anything. One thing  is  certain, there  is going to be a warm up after the  snowless  cold  in se va. Im glad  it  looks  like RIC will get at  least  several inches. I was really  hoping for  1 last  cold snowy winter in Newport  News as  i have  no idea the time  i have  left, lol

 

A the end  of the  gfs the  cold  comes  back but  will it  matter  if  it  does?

 

 

That warmth is transient; t's still going to be cold. It'll feel like winter at least. Some Fringe chances as well but you know it doesn't really snow down this way so whatever we get is a bonus. Even 24 or 36 hours of tracking the potential is good enough. At least for me obviously can't speak for you but keep an eye out for surprises. End of the week situation has some wraparound potential for us on the coast. Way out there but you never know.

Love overrunning snow. If that band can start around or south of the naval station in Norfolk and west toward Danville, it can dump on Richmond for many hours (GFS) before lifting North and out of the area. That would be a surprise three or four inches. Maybe not so surprising but at this rate it would be a shocker.

[RIC Airport]

18Z GFS as it's coming in, is similar to 12Z, @Conway7305, @wasnow215, @eaglesin2011, @SoCoWx

[Stormpc]

GFS loves RIC...SW to NE straight thru the metro. Sharp southern cutoff

[RIC Airport]

18 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

18Z GFS as it's coming in, is similar to 12Z, @Conway7305, @wasnow215, @eaglesin2011, @SoCoWx

17 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

GFS loves RIC...SW to NE straight thru the metro. Sharp southern cutoff

[Conway7305]

Biggest  totals yet…That’s definitely WSW criteria if it verifies on 18z 

[wasnow215]

Just gotta get these temps a couple degrees colder than forecasted at the surface. GFS looked colder to me at 18z vs 12z. You see that @RIC Airport?

[Conway7305]

GFS takes away the 1/20 storm but close call, S/W came onshore further SE (good trend) but did not link up with STJ.  Still plenty of time 

[RIC Airport]

21 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Just gotta get these temps a couple degrees colder than forecasted at the surface. GFS looked colder to me at 18z vs 12z. You see that @RIC Airport?

The 18Z GFS, like the 12Z, was cold throughout. RIC was at 46°F at 5pm. It puts RIC at 32°F at 2am tonight. I am not seeing a temp above freezing until 3am Tuesday morning.

[wasnow215]

7 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

The 18Z GFS, like the 12Z, was cold throughout. RIC was at 46°F at 5pm. It puts RIC at 32°F at 2am tonight. I am not seeing a temp above freezing until 3am Tuesday morning.

Look- 12z GFS 2m temps at 7 pm

[wasnow215]

18z 2m temps 7pm. 

[RIC Airport]

19 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Look- 12z GFS 2m temps at 7 pm

17 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

18z 2m temps 7pm. 

18Z for that hour was a degree colder. 31°F vs 32°F.

[wasnow215]

8 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

18Z for that hour was a degree colder. 31°F vs 32°F.

Southeast of the city a few degrees colder too. Just one model but it keeps trending better.

[RIC Airport]

38 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

The 18Z GFS, like the 12Z, was cold throughout. RIC was at 46°F at 5pm. It puts RIC at 32°F at 2am tonight. I am not seeing a temp above freezing until 3am Tuesday morning.

@wasnow215I should caveat by saying, that does not mean RIC can't rise above freezing in an intrahour reading, especially tomorrow afternoon around the time of the 20Z (3pm) temp map below. 

[RIC Airport]

16 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Southeast of the city a few degrees colder too. Just one model but it keeps trending better.

I agree that we should keep that in mind. There are different scenarios on the table and it'll be interesting to see which model does the best. 

[Conway7305]

Max accumulations by any model projections is 7.5 inches.  That would be great. My guess is between 3-4 inches.    

[RIC Airport]

For@ldub23 and other Hampton Roads folks.

 

[RIC Airport]

Here is the latest disco and the maps from Wakefield. I bolded part of the disco, highlighting what many of us mentioned earlier.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 410 PM EST Sunday...

Late this aftn, an arctic cold front was pushing through the nrn
third of the area, with just sctd SC and AC associated with the
front. Otherwise, the sky was sunny or mostly sunny across the
region with temps ranging from the mid 40s to the upper 50s. Winds
were still gusty in advance of and behind the front with gusts
to 30-35 mph.

Winds become light tonight, as weak high pressure moves in with
lows in the mid 20s N, to the lower to mid 30s SE under increasing
and lowering clouds. Although high pressure begins to build in,
it remains centered over the central CONUS with an elongated,
zonal shortwave stretching from TX into VA. Hi-res CAMs now show
enough forcing and moisture aloft due to this feature for at
least some virga and perhaps isolated to sctd light snow showers
forming late tonight across the NW half of the FA. However, the
airmass near the sfc will start off very dry with dew points
potentially in the single digits this evening. As such, it may
take awhile for moisture aloft to saturate the profile enough
for snow to make it to the ground. But, do now have 15-35% PoPs
for nrn/WNW portions of the region from 6-12z Mon with a light
dusting possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 410 PM EST Sunday...

Elongated shortwave energy and increasing moisture and lift will
expand over the nrn two thirds of the area Mon into Mon evening.
PoPs quickly increase to 40-60% in these areas, as a band of
snow develops later Mon morning into early Mon aftn, then shifts
NNW later Mon aftn into Mon night. Most of the pcpn should fall
as snow, although rain may mix in or become the dominant pcpn type
across the SE portion of the FA during the aftn and evening when
temps rise. Speaking of temps, temps will be cold with highs
only in the lower to mid 30s NNW, to the upper 30s to mid 40s
SSE. It is possible that the NW half of the FA doesn`t make it
above freezing if snow continues through the day due to dynamic
cooling.

A weak surface low forms off the SE coast late Mon night, before
moving NE off the Mid Atlc coast and twd the nrn Atlc Tue
morning into Tue night. While this low is expected to remain
weak, it may add enough moisture for PoPs to increase to 50-70%
across ENE portions of the FA Tue morning into early Tue aftn.
However, temps warm above freezing on Tue with a transition to
rain/snow across the NNW half of the FA and mainly rain everywhere
else. Pcpn will move offshore or end Tue evening/Tue night, with
gradual clearing from NW to SE by Wed morning.

Total snowfall amts have now increased for this event, with 1-3
inches possible across the NNW third of the FA with 0.5-1.0 inch
across the central third, and little to no accumulation across
the SE third. These totals may change as we get closer to the
event given uncertainties still with the evolution of the
moisture/lift, timing and placement. But, based on this latest
fcst, will likely be issuing Winter Weather Advisories this
evening for at least nrn/NW counties for the accumulating snow
possible.

Highs Tue in the upper 30s NNW, to the mid 40s to lower 50s SE.
Very cold air moves in behind the low Tue night with lows in
the mid to upper teens across much of the area, and in the lower
to mid 20s SE and along the coast. This will allow for wind chills
in the single digits across the N and W areas, and 10-15F across
the SE late Tue night/Wed morning. Sunny or mostly sunny and
cold on Wed, as high pressure builds into the region. Highs
only in the mid to upper 30s.

 

[JFLETCHER]

I will take my 1-3 up here in Ladysmith. Richmond once again on the line. This is a tough system to figure out.