ldub23 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Still holding out hope for a miracle on 06 GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Looking like ice could be a problem on Tuesday.. I’d expect school & work closings looks like this maybe starting Monday afternoon/night going from snow& rain back to freezing rain back to snow as it’s pulling away.. What area exactly get dry slotted & how the waves come together or not is going to be key .. More development off the coast could actually mean less snow / ice more rain in this area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 HRRR Short range gives us 2-4. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Monster GFS run ALEET @RIC Airport 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 27 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said: Monster GFS run ALEET @RIC Airport Thank you, nice to wake up to a jackpot run. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Love it! Beautiful overrunning event on 16th according to GFS. Also has some accumulation on the 19th storm. I would be happy with these two minor/mid events this week then break till Feb where we can score big SECS OR HECS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 2 hours ago, ldub23 said: Still holding out hope for a miracle on 06 GFS 12Z still had it. Actually, the past few runs of the GFS. I want to get excited once the Euro catches on, which is possible. I noticed the 6Z EPS improved from the 00z EPS for Friday. But, since 6z EPS only goes out to hour 144, it only captured some of the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Really nice to wake up to at 12z. The closer we get, the more I trust the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 1 hour ago, eaglesin2011 said: Looking like ice could be a problem on Tuesday.. I’d expect school & work closings looks like this maybe starting Monday afternoon/night going from snow& rain back to freezing rain back to snow as it’s pulling away.. What area exactly get dry slotted & how the waves come together or not is going to be key .. More development off the coast could actually mean less snow / ice more rain in this area I like how the over-running from the initial wave seems to be "trending." Of course, some models have fluctuated with how far south it developed. The farther south, the better for us, and maybe even as far SE as Newport News/Hampton. Some models have the band advancing north into NoVa and dry-slotting us quickly, while others have it lingering longer around Richmond. Some models have surface temp and 850/925mb temp issues for parts of the Richmond area, while others have the column below freezing for the entire initial wave. Also, the timing of the precip is slightly different from model to model. What was a Tuesday event is now solidly a Monday one on some. I am not a pro, but I imagine trying to put out a forecast would be frustrating. I have given up hope on the coastal low. It could enhance precip to an extent, but I agree that most of the precip is from the initial wave vs the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Here is the National Blend of Models (NBM). It runs every 3 hours, and it's basically a time-lagged blend of at least a few dozen models and ensembles. It still likely has some 06z or earlier guidance. It slowly responds if guidance continues to trend up or down, but it's what the NWS uses and should correlate to what you see in your point-and-click forecast. FWIW, here are the last two runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 The 12Z Euro has the snow band arriving tomorrow morning, but the bulk of the precip doesn't enter the Richmond area until around 3 or 4 pm The heavier rates from north to south are between 7pm and 1am. Surface temperatures are above freezing when the precipitation starts but drop near freezing as the snow begins. The snow band didn't hang around as long as the GFS did before lifting north. GFS has an earlier arrival of the snow (heavier rates), which helped keep surface temperatures lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 2 hours ago, RIC Airport said: 12Z still had it. Actually, the past few runs of the GFS. I want to get excited once the Euro catches on, which is possible. I noticed the 6Z EPS improved from the 00z EPS for Friday. But, since 6z EPS only goes out to hour 144, it only captured some of the event. @Conway7305, @ldub23Friday's storm was basically a snowstorm for 40N, although it does have a portion of C VA, starting off as snow between about 4am to 10am Friday morning before changing to rain. We are on the southern fringe of the entire thing. Still something to monitor in the coming days, I guess. Would be wonderful to get TWO accumulating events within a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 hours ago, eaglesin2011 said: Looking like ice could be a problem on Tuesday.. I’d expect school & work closings looks like this maybe starting Monday afternoon/night going from snow& rain back to freezing rain back to snow as it’s pulling away.. What area exactly get dry slotted & how the waves come together or not is going to be key .. More development off the coast could actually mean less snow / ice more rain in this area I was thinking this but look at temps. It looks like surface temps don’t even get below 33-34 even Monday night into Tuesday morning. Meaning it may be difficult for snow to accumulate anywhere but the coldest surfaces Monday into Tuesday. It’s later Tuesday into Wed that the cold air really comes in after things dry out for the most part. @RIC Airport do you think this is how it plays out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: @Conway7305, @ldub23Friday's storm was basically a snowstorm for 40N, although it does have a portion of C VA, starting off as snow between about 4am to 10am Friday morning before changing to rain. We are on the southern fringe of the entire thing. Still something to monitor in the coming days, I guess. Would be wonderful to get TWO accumulating events within a week. I will wait and see what the 18z gfs shows if anything. One thing is certain, there is going to be a warm up after the snowless cold in se va. Im glad it looks like RIC will get at least several inches. I was really hoping for 1 last cold snowy winter in Newport News as i have no idea the time i have left, lol A the end of the gfs the cold comes back but will it matter if it does? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 1 hour ago, wasnow215 said: I was thinking this but look at temps. It looks like surface temps don’t even get below 33-34 even Monday night into Tuesday morning. Meaning it may be difficult for snow to accumulate anywhere but the coldest surfaces Monday into Tuesday. It’s later Tuesday into Wed that the cold air really comes in after things dry out for the most part. @RIC Airport do you think this is how it plays out? I am concerned about surface temperatures and worried that the snow band could position farther north and Richmond is fringed without meaningful amounts. Meaningful being like 1”+. The goal is getting 1” at the airport to end the snowless streak. The 18Z HRRR has precip arriving tomorrow morning with surface temps around 31-32°F as the snow begins. The radar simulation shows some snow trying to start during the wee hours of the morning, but it’s probably just virga (maybe). Either way, HRRR has the bulk of the snow entering Richmond between 8am and 9am. Rates pick up, but it has snow changing to rain between 4pm and 5pm as temperatures rise to about 35-36 °F. The good news is that the bulk of the precip is over by this time. It just may mean that any snow that falls could be melted by afternoon. Then we get dry slotted and may get additional rain late Monday night into Tuesday as the coastal low gets going and starts to pull away Let’s hope the 12Z GFS is correct, but my gut feeling is that the 12Z run was too aggressive with snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 @wasnow215, The 18Z 3K NAM is similar to the 18z HRRR. Both models have a very early arrival of precip between 4am and 5am, with the heavier rates of snow arriving between 8am and 10am and lasting until about 3 or 4pm. It's around this time that precip tapers off, and surface temps remain above freezing while we are dry-slotted. As it pulls away, there could be additional rain overnight and early Tuesday from the coastal low. 3K NAM has RIC below freezing until about 11am, so ratios could drop, and snow may not accumulate as well, even though precip rates are higher into the mid afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Yes, I think over the years with this hobby, I have learned that just looking at the forecasted snow maps from the weather models and even the most conservative accumulation maps can bite you because temperatures mean so much. We have all seen really good chances of storms end up being “white rain” and even though it snows for a long duration, nothing really amounts from it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Two of the short range models show us getting around 5+.WRF AR WRF AR2 This doesn’t include the 12z GFS https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-arw®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2024011412&fh=48 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-arw2®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2024011412&fh=40 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: I will wait and see what the 18z gfs shows if anything. One thing is certain, there is going to be a warm up after the snowless cold in se va. Im glad it looks like RIC will get at least several inches. I was really hoping for 1 last cold snowy winter in Newport News as i have no idea the time i have left, lol A the end of the gfs the cold comes back but will it matter if it does? That warmth is transient; t's still going to be cold. It'll feel like winter at least. Some Fringe chances as well but you know it doesn't really snow down this way so whatever we get is a bonus. Even 24 or 36 hours of tracking the potential is good enough. At least for me obviously can't speak for you but keep an eye out for surprises. End of the week situation has some wraparound potential for us on the coast. Way out there but you never know. Love overrunning snow. If that band can start around or south of the naval station in Norfolk and west toward Danville, it can dump on Richmond for many hours (GFS) before lifting North and out of the area. That would be a surprise three or four inches. Maybe not so surprising but at this rate it would be a shocker. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 18Z GFS as it's coming in, is similar to 12Z, @Conway7305, @wasnow215, @eaglesin2011, @SoCoWx 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 GFS loves RIC...SW to NE straight thru the metro. Sharp southern cutoff 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 18 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 18Z GFS as it's coming in, is similar to 12Z, @Conway7305, @wasnow215, @eaglesin2011, @SoCoWx 17 minutes ago, Stormpc said: GFS loves RIC...SW to NE straight thru the metro. Sharp southern cutoff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Biggest totals yet…That’s definitely WSW criteria if it verifies on 18z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just gotta get these temps a couple degrees colder than forecasted at the surface. GFS looked colder to me at 18z vs 12z. You see that @RIC Airport? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 GFS takes away the 1/20 storm but close call, S/W came onshore further SE (good trend) but did not link up with STJ. Still plenty of time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 21 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Just gotta get these temps a couple degrees colder than forecasted at the surface. GFS looked colder to me at 18z vs 12z. You see that @RIC Airport? The 18Z GFS, like the 12Z, was cold throughout. RIC was at 46°F at 5pm. It puts RIC at 32°F at 2am tonight. I am not seeing a temp above freezing until 3am Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 7 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The 18Z GFS, like the 12Z, was cold throughout. RIC was at 46°F at 5pm. It puts RIC at 32°F at 2am tonight. I am not seeing a temp above freezing until 3am Tuesday morning. Look- 12z GFS 2m temps at 7 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 18z 2m temps 7pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 19 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Look- 12z GFS 2m temps at 7 pm 17 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: 18z 2m temps 7pm. 18Z for that hour was a degree colder. 31°F vs 32°F. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 8 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 18Z for that hour was a degree colder. 31°F vs 32°F. Southeast of the city a few degrees colder too. Just one model but it keeps trending better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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