RIC Airport Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 36 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Worse run for north of Richmond but it actually puts us coasties in the game for some late development with cold air becoming entrenched overnight Tuesday into wednesday. Wirh this kind of scraper, we can luck into an inch or two down this way. Obviously not ideal for the masses, but this is the one scenario where a very few of us can score. Very true, the 18Z GFS still likes accumulating snow as the coastal low pulls away. Some snow is moving into VA between 1pm and 4pm on Monday with the initial wave, even into the Richmond area between 4pm and 7pm. However, like the 12z run, most snow on Monday afternoon and evening primarily stays north and west of Richmond. Almost all of C VA and Hampton Roads get dry slotted between the snow that falls north and west of Richmond and the precip that begins to develop with the coastal low to our south and east. It’s not until the coastal low gets going Tuesday morning when rain begins to fall across eastern NC and the Hampton Roads area. But even that is limited and short-lived as 18Z GFS has most of Tuesday dry. But, as the coastal low deepens and begins to pull away, more precip breaks out across the state between 7pm and 10pm Tuesday. It had snow chances until about 7am in Richmond and 10am Wednesday over Hampton Roads and NE NC. 18Z GFS drops 1-2” across most of region (assuming 10:1 ratio, of course), especially in interior SE VA. The 18Z GEFS also still show a snow signal for Tuesday and Wednesday, definitely not giving up hope. Also, by tomorrow night at 00Z, the NAM begins to get within range so we'll begin to see what the short term models do with this set up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 The 18Z EPS says don't close the blinds on Tues-Wednesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 00Z GFS is hanging on to the snow threat idea. No need to really go into the specific details. Will continue to monitor over the next couple of days until other models align on a solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 06 GFS better with several snow chances 102 162 This at 204 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 The 6z GFS is what CAN happen with that third wave just off the coast. Cold air in place with moisture thrown over top of the Arctic boundary. That's our only winning scenario in Hampton roads. That's also an outlier. Keep watching...we'll see. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On a positive note. We have a had a ton of moisture this winter from the subtropical jet unlike prior years thanks to El Niño. That won’t be an issue. Hopefully we can get into a favorable pattern in late Jan-Feb. MJO looks to swing back to cold phases in Feb. NAO/AO will eventually go negative again. Just need PNA to stay positive. Still could score big. Extended weeklies still look good for below average temps. I’ll certainly enjoy smaller storms but have most fun tracking the MECS or HECS storms. Thrill of the chase. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 12Z GFS holds/ups the ante for HR/NENC. Not going backwards that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 1 hour ago, Stormpc said: 12Z GFS holds/ups the ante for HR/NENC. Not going backwards that's for sure. Definitely alright. The initial wave looks to deliver for most of us, and once the coastal gets going, that provides another opportunity for coastal areas. Liking the trends. The best runs happen when I decide to skip them and get some sleep. The storm for the end of next week and weekend certainly can improve as well. I posted the snow accumulation map for the Friday-Saturday storm, and also the total this run of the GFS did for both events. Hopefully, we score higher. And as @Conway7305mentioned, there should be continued opportunities in the weeks ahead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 now, we need to keep an eye on the 20th Storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 Also, the 12Z GEFS for Tuesday-Wednesday had RIC at an 80% probability of seeing 1" of snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 45 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: now, we need to keep an eye on the 20th Storm. This is a slowed-down gif of the 12Z GEFS from 12Z Thursday to 18Z Sunday. There are some good hits for Friday into the weekend, but you can also see some warmer, rainy members, especially S and E of RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 Euro still gives light snow from the overrunning with the initial wave, but the coastal low did not get going early enough to enhance the totals in Hampton Roads and NE NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I STILL wouldn’t write of the early week storm just yet.. The precip in Oregon looks pretty decent . yes, I know it’s expected to die out a bit when it comes across the central US but it looks pretty impressive at the moment. Our luck this thing with get its self together enough to dry slot us and then bomb out farther up the coast.. Watch! Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 27 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: I STILL wouldn’t write of the early week storm just yet.. The precip in Oregon looks pretty decent . yes I know it’s expected to die out a bit when it comes across the central US but it looks pretty impressive at the moment. Our luck this thing with get its self together enough to dry slot us and then bomb out farther up the coast.. Watch! Lol I agree that the models have trended better for us with that wave. We needed the coastal to flare up faster, which would've enhanced our totals further Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Definitely time for some fluctuations, but that 2nd scenario has looked less lightly. Also, the Euro was a big no for Friday and Saturday's storm. Maybe the EPS will offer some hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 Still a snow signal on the 12Z EPS for Tues-Wed, but certainly not as aggressive as the 12 GEFS. EPS only has about a 40%-50% probability of 1" at RIC vs GEFS 80%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 EURO actually improved in that it's liking the idea of the coastal developing. Closer this time to the GFS but not there yet. Not terrible. Places that get into that first overrunning band may be fortunate enough to have snow flying for almost 24 hours if the coastal gets going quick enough like shown on the gfs. Not that it will amount to much but certainly better than blue skies and wind. I'm still 62 degrees at the house right now!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I like this look. There is plenty of Actual cold air around this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 20 minutes ago, ldub23 said: I like this look. There is plenty of Actual cold air around this time. We already talked about this. I also posted the maps for that event and the GEFS for that threat. Did you overlook it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 Also, the EPS wasn't too encouraging for that Friday-Saturday threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 This reminds me of a situation back around 1971 but my memory fails a bit. Then we had an arctic boundary that stalled to the SE and for a week we had cold with occasional snow showers but little accumulation. Then an upper low came over and dumps 2.5 inches just after school started. Lots of similarities to the upcoming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 2 hours ago, Stormpc said: EURO actually improved in that it's liking the idea of the coastal developing. Closer this time to the GFS but not there yet. Not terrible. Places that get into that first overrunning band may be fortunate enough to have snow flying for almost 24 hours if the coastal gets going quick enough like shown on the gfs. Not that it will amount to much but certainly better than blue skies and wind. I'm still 62 degrees at the house right now!! The short-term models are getting further within range, and so far, the 3K NAM is developing and pushing that initial band farther north of Richmond while everyone S and E see little, if anything. Meanwhile, the HRRR was a little farther south. Both of these are at the end of their ranges, so I don't know if I'd take them too seriously for now, but something to watch in later runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 11 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The short-term models are getting further within range, and so far, the 3K NAM is developing and pushing that initial band farther north of Richmond while everyone S and E see little, if anything. Meanwhile, the HRRR was a little farther south. Both of these are at the end of their ranges, so I don't know if I'd take them too seriously for now, but something to watch in later runs. The trend is still good enough in the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 2 hours ago, ldub23 said: The trend is still good enough in the HRRR The surface depiction on the 18Z GFS isn't much different from the 12Z run. The initial band comes on Monday afternoon, with light snow, maybe a brief period of moderate rates, continuing into Tuesday morning. As in earlier runs, the coastal low develops too far offshore, so we do not get additional precipitation. It could be in southside Hampton Roads and NE NC, but it doesn't look cold enough for snow. We should all just root for maximizing snow accumulations with the initial band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 For the initial band, the 18Z GFS has surface temperatures at 33-34°F in the Richmond area and upper 30s to around 40°F once you get south and east of Williamsburg, as the bulk of the snow falls Monday evening into Tuesday morning. So, hopefully, the rates are heavy enough to overcome marginal surface temperatures to accumulate. The heavier rates, at least this run, look to occur from about 1am to 7am Tuesday, which helps, but the farther south and east you live, the harder it might be to accumulate. The 925mb and 850mb temperatures remain below 0°C along and north of a line from about Petersburg to West Point, further indicating areas north of there have better chances for sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 AKQ favors areas north and west of Williamsburg for accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 The 00Z HRRR, which only goes out 48 hours, has a similar scenario, however, snow arrives earlier on Monday. Surface temperatures remain below freezing from when any precip starts until the model ends for areas north and west of Petersburg and West Point. Like the 18Z GFS, HRRR has the 925mb and 850mb temperatures remaining below 0°C along and north of a line from about Petersburg to West Point. Precip is still falling when this run ends, but the snow map (assuming a 10:1 ratio) has a band of 1-2" of snow from about Farmville to Tappahannock and Northern Neck by 7pm Monday evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3K NAM looks good and imo a little more reliable than HRRR at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 45 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: 3K NAM looks good and imo a little more reliable than HRRR at this range Tracking that, I just posted the HRRR since it's now coming within its range. It's always interesting to see how the short-range models start off.I did see the 3K NAM and liked it less for Richmond, especially if you are south and east of US Hwy 360. The model has the band forming right over the metro area and quickly moving north. It also has a warm layer at 925mb, which means Richmond could mix even though surface temps are at freezing during the precip band. As the band shifts north, surface temperatures rise above freezing Monday night as the coastal looks to be taking over off the SE coast, and we are dry-slotted in between. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Not really seeing any big changes on the 00z GFS for the Monday-Tuesday event. It still has snow arriving as early as Monday morning with periods of snow into Monday night and possibly a heavier burst of snow Tuesday morning before tapering off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 The 00Z Euro is similar to other models in that it has the initial snow band developing Monday over the Richmond metro and quickly moving north. Some rain could fall on the southern end of the band south and east of Petersburg and West Point. Euro has the bulk of the precip moving into the metro area after about 7 or 8pm, but it only hangs around for about 5-6 hours before taping off. Euro was also warm at the surface (33-34°F) around Richmond, so unless there are good rates, it could make accumulations more difficult. It's looking more like the DC metro area could be the winner with this wave. Light rain spreads over Hampton Roads and NE NC Tuesday morning into the afternoon as the coastal low develops and begins to pull away. The Euro also had the Friday storm, but the snow was confined to NoVA and basically became a 40N storm. But it is something to monitor in the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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