Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[Stormpc]

12Z GFS holds/ups the ante for HR/NENC. Not going backwards that's for sure. 

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, Stormpc said:

12Z GFS holds/ups the ante for HR/NENC. Not going backwards that's for sure. 

Definitely alright. The initial wave looks to deliver for most of us, and once the coastal gets going, that provides another opportunity for coastal areas. Liking the trends. The best runs happen when I decide to skip them and get some sleep.

 

The storm for the end of next week and weekend certainly can improve as well. I posted the snow accumulation map for the Friday-Saturday storm, and also the total this run of the GFS did for both events. Hopefully, we score higher. And as @Conway7305mentioned, there should be continued opportunities in the weeks ahead. 

 

[Conway7305]

now, we need to keep an eye on the 20th Storm. 

[RIC Airport]

Also, the 12Z GEFS for Tuesday-Wednesday had RIC at an 80% probability of seeing 1" of snow. 

[RIC Airport]

45 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

now, we need to keep an eye on the 20th Storm. 

This is a slowed-down gif of the 12Z GEFS from 12Z Thursday to 18Z Sunday. There are some good hits for Friday into the weekend, but you can also see some warmer, rainy members, especially S and E of RIC.

[RIC Airport]

Euro still gives light snow from the overrunning with the initial wave, but the coastal low did not get going early enough to enhance the totals in Hampton Roads and NE NC.

[eaglesin2011]

I STILL wouldn’t write of the early week storm  just yet.. The precip in Oregon looks pretty decent . yes, I know it’s expected to die out a bit when it comes across the central US but it looks pretty impressive at the moment. 

Our luck this thing with get its self together enough to dry slot us and then bomb out farther up the coast.. Watch! Lol

[RIC Airport]

27 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

I STILL wouldn’t write of the early week storm  just yet.. The precip in Oregon looks pretty decent . yes I know it’s expected to die out a bit when it comes across the central US but it looks pretty impressive at the moment. 

Our luck this thing with get its self together enough to dry slot us and then bomb out farther up the coast.. Watch! Lol

I agree that the models have trended better for us with that wave. We needed the coastal to flare up faster, which would've enhanced our totals further Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Definitely time for some fluctuations, but that 2nd scenario has looked less lightly. 

Also, the Euro was a big no for Friday and Saturday's storm. Maybe the EPS will offer some hope. 

[RIC Airport]

Still a snow signal on the 12Z EPS for Tues-Wed, but certainly not as aggressive as the 12 GEFS. EPS only has about a 40%-50% probability of 1" at RIC vs GEFS 80%.

[Stormpc]

EURO actually improved in that it's liking the idea of the coastal developing. Closer this time to the GFS but not there yet. Not terrible. Places that get into that first overrunning band may be fortunate enough to have snow flying for almost 24 hours if the coastal gets going quick enough like shown on the gfs. Not that it will amount to much but certainly better than blue skies and wind. I'm still 62 degrees at the house right now!!

[ldub23]

I  like this  look. There  is  plenty  of Actual cold air around this time. 

 

[RIC Airport]

20 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

I  like this  look. There  is  plenty  of Actual cold air around this time. 

We already talked about this. I also posted the maps for that event and the GEFS for that threat. Did you overlook it?

[RIC Airport]

Also, the EPS wasn't too encouraging for that Friday-Saturday threat.

[ldub23]

This reminds  me of a situation back around  1971 but  my memory fails a  bit. Then we  had an arctic  boundary that stalled  to the SE and for a week we  had cold with occasional snow showers but  little  accumulation. Then an upper  low  came  over and dumps  2.5 inches just after school started. Lots  of similarities to the  upcoming week.

 

 

 

[RIC Airport]

2 hours ago, Stormpc said:

EURO actually improved in that it's liking the idea of the coastal developing. Closer this time to the GFS but not there yet. Not terrible. Places that get into that first overrunning band may be fortunate enough to have snow flying for almost 24 hours if the coastal gets going quick enough like shown on the gfs. Not that it will amount to much but certainly better than blue skies and wind. I'm still 62 degrees at the house right now!!

The short-term models are getting further within range, and so far, the 3K NAM is developing and pushing that initial band farther north of Richmond while everyone S and E see little, if anything.

 

Meanwhile, the HRRR was a little farther south. Both of these are at the end of their ranges, so I don't know if I'd take them too seriously for now, but something to watch in later runs. 

 

 

[ldub23]

11 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

The short-term models are getting further within range, and so far, the 3K NAM is developing and pushing that initial band farther north of Richmond while everyone S and E see little, if anything.

 

Meanwhile, the HRRR was a little farther south. Both of these are at the end of their ranges, so I don't know if I'd take them too seriously for now, but something to watch in later runs. 

 

 

The trend  is still good enough in the HRRR

[RIC Airport]

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

The trend  is still good enough in the HRRR

The surface depiction on the 18Z GFS isn't much different from the 12Z run. The initial band comes on Monday afternoon, with light snow, maybe a brief period of moderate rates, continuing into Tuesday morning. As in earlier runs, the coastal low develops too far offshore, so we do not get additional precipitation. It could be in southside Hampton Roads and NE NC, but it doesn't look cold enough for snow. We should all just root for maximizing snow accumulations with the initial band. 

[RIC Airport]

For the initial band, the 18Z GFS has surface temperatures at 33-34°F in the Richmond area and upper 30s to around 40°F once you get south and east of Williamsburg, as the bulk of the snow falls Monday evening into Tuesday morning. So, hopefully, the rates are heavy enough to overcome marginal surface temperatures to accumulate. The heavier rates, at least this run, look to occur from about 1am to 7am Tuesday, which helps, but the farther south and east you live, the harder it might be to accumulate. 

The 925mb and 850mb temperatures remain below 0°C along and north of a line from about Petersburg to West Point, further indicating areas north of there have better chances for sticking. 

[RIC Airport]

AKQ favors areas north and west of Williamsburg for accumulations. 

 

[RIC Airport]

The 00Z HRRR, which only goes out 48 hours, has a similar scenario, however, snow arrives earlier on Monday. Surface temperatures remain below freezing from when any precip starts until the model ends for areas north and west of Petersburg and West Point.

Like the 18Z GFS, HRRR has the 925mb and 850mb temperatures remaining below 0°C along and north of a line from about Petersburg to West Point. 

Precip is still falling when this run ends, but the snow map (assuming a 10:1 ratio) has a band of 1-2" of snow from about Farmville to Tappahannock and Northern Neck by 7pm Monday evening. 

[wasnow215]

3K NAM looks good and imo a little more reliable than HRRR at this range 

[RIC Airport]

45 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

3K NAM looks good and imo a little more reliable than HRRR at this range 

Tracking that, I just posted the HRRR since it's now coming within its range. It's always interesting to see how the short-range models start off.

I did see the 3K NAM and liked it less for Richmond, especially if you are south and east of US Hwy 360. The model has the band forming right over the metro area and quickly moving north. It also has a warm layer at 925mb, which means Richmond could mix even though surface temps are at freezing during the precip band. As the band shifts north, surface temperatures rise above freezing Monday night as the coastal looks to be taking over off the SE coast, and we are dry-slotted in between.

[RIC Airport]

Not really seeing any big changes on the 00z GFS for the Monday-Tuesday event. It still has snow arriving as early as Monday morning with periods of snow into Monday night and possibly a heavier burst of snow Tuesday morning before tapering off. 

 

[RIC Airport]

The 00Z Euro is similar to other models in that it has the initial snow band developing Monday over the Richmond metro and quickly moving north. Some rain could fall on the southern end of the band south and east of Petersburg and West Point.  Euro has the bulk of the precip moving into the metro area after about 7 or 8pm, but it only hangs around for about 5-6 hours before taping off.  Euro was also warm at the surface (33-34°F) around Richmond, so unless there are good rates, it could make accumulations more difficult.  It's looking more like the DC metro area could be the winner with this wave.

Light rain spreads over Hampton Roads and NE NC Tuesday morning into the afternoon as the coastal low develops and begins to pull away.

 

The Euro also had the Friday storm, but the snow was confined to NoVA and basically became a 40N storm. But it is something to monitor in the next couple of days. 

[ldub23]

Still holding  out  hope for a  miracle on 06 GFS

 

[eaglesin2011]

Looking like ice could be a problem on Tuesday..

I’d expect school & work closings

looks like this maybe starting Monday afternoon/night going from snow& rain back  to freezing rain back to snow as it’s pulling away..

What area exactly get dry slotted & how the waves come together or not is going to be key ..  More development off the coast could actually mean less snow / ice more rain in this area

[Conway7305]

HRRR Short range gives us 2-4.

 

 

 

[mikeeng92]

Monster GFS run

ALEET

@RIC Airport

[RIC Airport]

27 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said:

Monster GFS run

ALEET

@RIC Airport

Thank you, nice to wake up to a jackpot run. 

 

[Conway7305]

Love it!  Beautiful overrunning event on 16th according to GFS.  Also has some accumulation on the 19th storm.  I would be happy with these two minor/mid  events this week then break till Feb where we can score big SECS OR HECS.