RIC Airport Posted January 12, 2024 Author Share Posted January 12, 2024 The 12 GEFS continue to indicate we are still in the game, but the snowfall mean for the Tuesday-Wednesday period did drop some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Thank you @RIC Airport for the breakdown. Plenty of time for change, for the better or worse. Do you think we could see significant change based on the storm later today or do the models seem to have that sniffed out and accounted for fairly well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 12, 2024 Author Share Posted January 12, 2024 34 minutes ago, JB Fins said: Thank you @RIC Airport for the breakdown. Plenty of time for change, for the better or worse. Do you think we could see significant change based on the storm later today or do the models seem to have that sniffed out and accounted for fairly well? I am very worried about the Euro. Even its ensembles have shifted weaker and east over time. And today's 12Z GFS certainly trended that way as well. If today's 12Z Euro doesn't budge, then it may be a huge sign this one could be slipping away from us. I am not ready to commit to that yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 ITS been a few years since we had a cold winter pattern and there is still no sign we will have one this winter. 2 or 3 days of cold isnt a pattern change and th warm is coming back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 12, 2024 Author Share Posted January 12, 2024 Well, @JB Fins @Conway7305, et al, the 12Z Euro was a disappointment. Once the secondary low got going, there was hardly any precip except for SE VA. A little snow north and west of RIC from the initial wave seemed to have been better than earlier runs.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Still a ways to go for the 16th. However there’s another storm on the euro for the 19th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 12, 2024 Author Share Posted January 12, 2024 14 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Still a ways to go for the 16th. However there’s another storm on the euro for the 19th. Yeah, I was looking at that. I hope it pans out. Let's keep the opportunities coming. Still better than last winter, with wall-to-wall warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 12, 2024 Author Share Posted January 12, 2024 This is the 12z EPS only through 00z Thursday. I'll post the entire run when it's finished. Bottom line, the snowfall mean for RIC for the 16th-17th storm continues to fall. Here was the RIC mean for the last 4 runs of the EPS. 1.3": 12Z 12th 1.4": 06Z 12th 2.0": 00z 12th 2.1": 18Z 11th 2.2": 12Z 11th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 12, 2024 Author Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: This is the 12z EPS only through 00z Thursday. I'll post the entire run when it's finished. This is the snowfall mean, median, and the chance for 1" for the entire EPS run through hour 360. I also included the RIC, ORF, and ECG city charts, which show the snow totals from all 50 members. Definitely a drop, but keep the faith, @Conway7305, @wasnow215, @Rhino16, @eaglesin2011@SoCoWx, @Stormpc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 12, 2024 Author Share Posted January 12, 2024 E-38 was the snowiest for most of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 And things will look completely different by 0z Saturday. Lots of model spread. Let's get rid of this cutter and see what happens tomorrow afternoon. I still feel pretty good about the Richmond area for seeing some snow at least. Hunting the big dog is going to disappoint a lot of people. That's not in the cards right now. However maybe the 20th? Always the next one. Anyway for a hobbyist it should be an interesting and fun three days. Plus we have NFL playoffs except for that Saturday night crap on peacock which I'm not going to get. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 The greedy money grab that the NFL and NBC are pulling on a playoff game wants me to go full Clint Eastwood on them. Then NBC with their coverage on the Today show trumpeting the match up of the Chiefs and Dolphins like it was THE game. Throw in some Tay Tay references and I was ready to throw a brick through the TV. Keep it up NFL, you will have a lot less fans going forward. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 ugh….bad GFS run. May have to wait for pattern to reshuffle later in Jan to score unless things change Our window keeps getting pushed out. Trough just isn’t in a good placement. Needs to be east a bit and sw/ energy can dig more into texas instead of TN. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 12, 2024 Author Share Posted January 12, 2024 54 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: ugh….bad GFS run. May have to wait for pattern to reshuffle later in Jan to score unless things change Our window keeps getting pushed out. Trough just isn’t in a good placement. Needs to be east a bit and sw/ energy can dig more into texas instead of TN. Yeah, certainly wasn't ideal, but at least it didn't completely take away the snow. While I recognize it may not be a 6"+ event, I'm still rooting for an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 45 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Yeah, certainly wasn't ideal, but at least it didn't completely take away the snow. While I recognize it may not be a 6"+ event, I'm still rooting for an inch. Worse run for north of Richmond but it actually puts us coasties in the game for some late development with cold air becoming entrenched overnight Tuesday into wednesday. Wirh this kind of scraper, we can luck into an inch or two down this way. Obviously not ideal for the masses, but this is the one scenario where a very few of us can score. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 13, 2024 Author Share Posted January 13, 2024 36 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Worse run for north of Richmond but it actually puts us coasties in the game for some late development with cold air becoming entrenched overnight Tuesday into wednesday. Wirh this kind of scraper, we can luck into an inch or two down this way. Obviously not ideal for the masses, but this is the one scenario where a very few of us can score. Very true, the 18Z GFS still likes accumulating snow as the coastal low pulls away. Some snow is moving into VA between 1pm and 4pm on Monday with the initial wave, even into the Richmond area between 4pm and 7pm. However, like the 12z run, most snow on Monday afternoon and evening primarily stays north and west of Richmond. Almost all of C VA and Hampton Roads get dry slotted between the snow that falls north and west of Richmond and the precip that begins to develop with the coastal low to our south and east. It’s not until the coastal low gets going Tuesday morning when rain begins to fall across eastern NC and the Hampton Roads area. But even that is limited and short-lived as 18Z GFS has most of Tuesday dry. But, as the coastal low deepens and begins to pull away, more precip breaks out across the state between 7pm and 10pm Tuesday. It had snow chances until about 7am in Richmond and 10am Wednesday over Hampton Roads and NE NC. 18Z GFS drops 1-2” across most of region (assuming 10:1 ratio, of course), especially in interior SE VA. The 18Z GEFS also still show a snow signal for Tuesday and Wednesday, definitely not giving up hope. Also, by tomorrow night at 00Z, the NAM begins to get within range so we'll begin to see what the short term models do with this set up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 13, 2024 Author Share Posted January 13, 2024 The 18Z EPS says don't close the blinds on Tues-Wednesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 13, 2024 Author Share Posted January 13, 2024 00Z GFS is hanging on to the snow threat idea. No need to really go into the specific details. Will continue to monitor over the next couple of days until other models align on a solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 13, 2024 Share Posted January 13, 2024 06 GFS better with several snow chances 102 162 This at 204 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 13, 2024 Share Posted January 13, 2024 The 6z GFS is what CAN happen with that third wave just off the coast. Cold air in place with moisture thrown over top of the Arctic boundary. That's our only winning scenario in Hampton roads. That's also an outlier. Keep watching...we'll see. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 13, 2024 Share Posted January 13, 2024 On a positive note. We have a had a ton of moisture this winter from the subtropical jet unlike prior years thanks to El Niño. That won’t be an issue. Hopefully we can get into a favorable pattern in late Jan-Feb. MJO looks to swing back to cold phases in Feb. NAO/AO will eventually go negative again. Just need PNA to stay positive. Still could score big. Extended weeklies still look good for below average temps. I’ll certainly enjoy smaller storms but have most fun tracking the MECS or HECS storms. Thrill of the chase. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 13, 2024 Share Posted January 13, 2024 12Z GFS holds/ups the ante for HR/NENC. Not going backwards that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 13, 2024 Author Share Posted January 13, 2024 1 hour ago, Stormpc said: 12Z GFS holds/ups the ante for HR/NENC. Not going backwards that's for sure. Definitely alright. The initial wave looks to deliver for most of us, and once the coastal gets going, that provides another opportunity for coastal areas. Liking the trends. The best runs happen when I decide to skip them and get some sleep. The storm for the end of next week and weekend certainly can improve as well. I posted the snow accumulation map for the Friday-Saturday storm, and also the total this run of the GFS did for both events. Hopefully, we score higher. And as @Conway7305mentioned, there should be continued opportunities in the weeks ahead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 13, 2024 Share Posted January 13, 2024 now, we need to keep an eye on the 20th Storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 13, 2024 Author Share Posted January 13, 2024 Also, the 12Z GEFS for Tuesday-Wednesday had RIC at an 80% probability of seeing 1" of snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 13, 2024 Author Share Posted January 13, 2024 45 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: now, we need to keep an eye on the 20th Storm. This is a slowed-down gif of the 12Z GEFS from 12Z Thursday to 18Z Sunday. There are some good hits for Friday into the weekend, but you can also see some warmer, rainy members, especially S and E of RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 13, 2024 Author Share Posted January 13, 2024 Euro still gives light snow from the overrunning with the initial wave, but the coastal low did not get going early enough to enhance the totals in Hampton Roads and NE NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 13, 2024 Share Posted January 13, 2024 I STILL wouldn’t write of the early week storm just yet.. The precip in Oregon looks pretty decent . yes, I know it’s expected to die out a bit when it comes across the central US but it looks pretty impressive at the moment. Our luck this thing with get its self together enough to dry slot us and then bomb out farther up the coast.. Watch! Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 13, 2024 Author Share Posted January 13, 2024 27 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: I STILL wouldn’t write of the early week storm just yet.. The precip in Oregon looks pretty decent . yes I know it’s expected to die out a bit when it comes across the central US but it looks pretty impressive at the moment. Our luck this thing with get its self together enough to dry slot us and then bomb out farther up the coast.. Watch! Lol I agree that the models have trended better for us with that wave. We needed the coastal to flare up faster, which would've enhanced our totals further Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Definitely time for some fluctuations, but that 2nd scenario has looked less lightly. Also, the Euro was a big no for Friday and Saturday's storm. Maybe the EPS will offer some hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 13, 2024 Author Share Posted January 13, 2024 Still a snow signal on the 12Z EPS for Tues-Wed, but certainly not as aggressive as the 12 GEFS. EPS only has about a 40%-50% probability of 1" at RIC vs GEFS 80%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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