Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[Rhino16]

7 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Don’t get the reason why people keep posting totals for multiple storms that haven’t even happened yet…

I can understand the overall totals but hell Tuesdays storm is what needs to set up everything first  & really is our best shot for a decent snow that we had around here in years..

There’s only one storm?

[eaglesin2011]

Not what I’m saying.. I just don’t know why some are jumping right past todays and Tuesdays storms like they don’t matter .. It is what is going to set up everything & add up to get to the final totals.. Hell it’s far from certain that we will get any accumulating snows out of this 
So, the “mean totals” really don’t matter until these storms pass..

 

[Conway7305]

Unfortunately the GFS is trending to the EURO which gives us basically nothing.  A surprise inch or two would be nice.  I hope this winter has some more  uncomplicated storms for us.  I remember 2016 all models showed that storm 10 days out and never budged much. 

[RIC Airport]

So, looking at the 12Z GFS, some precip begins moving into the state between 10pm Monday and 1am Tuesday, but this precip area (snow) primarily stays north and west of Richmond. Surface temps around RIC are around freezing but start to increase as the low approaches. More precip (rain) enters NE NC and southside Hampton Roads between 4am and 7am, while RIC and most of C VA remain dry slotted between the two areas of precip.

By 10am Tuesday, RIC had risen to 37°F, and ORF was at 43°F as the low approached our latitude. There is an area of light rain from the Eastern Shore down into Eastern NC. By 4pm, RIC is at 38°F as more precip begins to develop south and east of RIC. By 7pm, the low is well east of Virginia but somehow moisture begins to blossom well to the west, and that is when snow begins to break out around RIC, and the temps begin to drop toward freezing. Light snow continues to fall in the Richmond area from about 7pm Tuesday and then becomes moderate to heavy between 1am and 4am Wednesday as temps continue to fall. As temps continue to fall behind the departing low, the temperatures even in SE VA lower, and the heavier snow band moves SE and over all of Hampton Roads between 4am and 7am Wednesday before taping off shortly after that.

The farthest north and west the 850°C line gets is at hour 99 (10am Tuesday). It stays south and east of RIC from just south of Petersburg and toward West Point. This suggests that it may be too warm only at the surface, at least initially, to snow should there is precip around in the RVA metro. But it's during this time most of C VA is in the dry slot anyway. 

 

[RIC Airport]

23 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Unfortunately the GFS is trending to the EURO which gives us basically nothing.  A surprise inch or two would be nice.  I hope this winter has some more  uncomplicated storms for us.  I remember 2016 all models showed that storm 10 days out and never budged much. 

Yeah, it's never good when one of the major global models doesn't come on board, and others tend to cave in that direction. But, as I've seen, strange things can happen within 72 hours. I just wanted to explain what this GFS run did in our region. Not that we should take it verbatim.

I don't believe the 12Z GFS solution is correct, just how it evolved and suddenly threw a bunch of precip back at the last minute. 

[RIC Airport]

3 hours ago, SoCoWx said:

This is not for the storm coming up in 5 days.

2 hours ago, Rhino16 said:

Indeed it is, the run after it is just that empty.

2 hours ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Not what I’m saying.. I just don’t know why some are jumping right past todays and Tuesdays storms like they don’t matter .. It is what is going to set up everything & add up to get to the final totals.. Hell it’s far from certain that we will get any accumulating snows out of this 
So, the “mean totals” really don’t matter until these storms pass..

 

I've pointed that out a few times over the last few weeks.

I believe I now know why @ldub23 has a weenie tag on his account. And I am beginning to think that willy-nilly posting the 384-hour GFS in the Mid Atlantic long range thread, where many admins and moderators hang out, with no analysis or proper context had much to do with it. 

[RIC Airport]

The 12 GEFS continue to indicate we are still in the game, but the snowfall mean for the Tuesday-Wednesday period did drop some. 

[JB Fins]

Thank you @RIC Airport for the breakdown.

Plenty of time for change, for the better or worse.  

Do you think we could see significant change based on the storm later today or do the models seem to have that sniffed out and accounted for fairly well?

[RIC Airport]

34 minutes ago, JB Fins said:

Thank you @RIC Airport for the breakdown.

Plenty of time for change, for the better or worse.  

Do you think we could see significant change based on the storm later today or do the models seem to have that sniffed out and accounted for fairly well?

I am very worried about the Euro. Even its ensembles have shifted weaker and east over time. And today's 12Z GFS certainly trended that way as well. If today's 12Z Euro doesn't budge, then it may be a huge sign this one could be slipping away from us.  I am not ready to commit to that yet.

[ldub23]

ITS been a few years since we  had a  cold winter  pattern and there  is still no sign we will have  one this winter. 2 or  3 days  of  cold  isnt a  pattern change and th warm is  coming  back

 

[RIC Airport]

Well, @JB Fins @Conway7305, et al, the 12Z Euro was a disappointment. Once the secondary low got going, there was hardly any precip except for SE VA. A little snow north and west of RIC from the initial wave seemed to have been better than earlier runs..

[Conway7305]

Still a ways to go for the 16th. However there’s another storm on the euro for the 19th.  

[RIC Airport]

14 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Still a ways to go for the 16th. However there’s another storm on the euro for the 19th.  

Yeah, I was looking at that. I hope it pans out. Let's keep the opportunities coming. Still better than last winter, with wall-to-wall warmth.

[RIC Airport]

This is the 12z EPS only through 00z Thursday. I'll post the entire run when it's finished. Bottom line, the snowfall mean for RIC for the 16th-17th storm continues to fall. 

Here was the RIC mean for the last 4 runs of the EPS.

1.3": 12Z 12th

1.4": 06Z 12th

2.0": 00z 12th

2.1": 18Z 11th

2.2": 12Z 11th

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

This is the 12z EPS only through 00z Thursday. I'll post the entire run when it's finished.

This is the snowfall mean, median, and the chance for 1" for the entire EPS run through hour 360. I also included the RIC, ORF, and ECG city charts, which show the snow totals from all 50 members. Definitely a drop, but keep the faith,  @Conway7305, @wasnow215, @Rhino16, @eaglesin2011@SoCoWx, @Stormpc.

[RIC Airport]

E-38 was the snowiest for most of us.

[Stormpc]

And things will look completely different by 0z Saturday. Lots of model spread. Let's get rid of this cutter and see what happens tomorrow afternoon. I still feel pretty good about the Richmond area for seeing some snow at least. Hunting the big dog is going to disappoint a lot of people. That's not in the cards right now. However maybe the 20th? Always the next one. Anyway for a hobbyist it should be an interesting and fun three days. Plus we have NFL playoffs except for that Saturday night crap on peacock which I'm not going to get.

[JB Fins]

The greedy money grab that the NFL and NBC are pulling on a playoff game wants me to go full Clint Eastwood on them.  Then NBC with their coverage on the Today show trumpeting the match up of the Chiefs and Dolphins like it was THE game.  Throw in some Tay Tay references and I was ready to throw a brick through the TV.  Keep it up NFL, you will have a lot less fans going forward.  

[Conway7305]

ugh….bad GFS run.  May have to wait for pattern to reshuffle later in Jan to score unless things change Our window keeps getting pushed out. Trough  just isn’t in a good placement.  Needs to be east a bit  and sw/ energy  can dig more into texas instead of  TN.

[RIC Airport]

54 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

ugh….bad GFS run.  May have to wait for pattern to reshuffle later in Jan to score unless things change Our window keeps getting pushed out. Trough  just isn’t in a good placement.  Needs to be east a bit  and sw/ energy  can dig more into texas instead of  TN.

Yeah, certainly wasn't ideal, but at least it didn't completely take away the snow. While I recognize it may not be a 6"+ event, I'm still rooting for an inch. 

[Stormpc]

45 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Yeah, certainly wasn't ideal, but at least it didn't completely take away the snow. While I recognize it may not be a 6"+ event, I'm still rooting for an inch. 

Worse run for north of Richmond but it actually puts us coasties in the game for some late development with cold air becoming entrenched overnight Tuesday into wednesday. Wirh this kind of scraper, we can luck into an inch or two down this way. Obviously not ideal for the masses, but this is the one scenario where a very few of us can score. 

[RIC Airport]

36 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Worse run for north of Richmond but it actually puts us coasties in the game for some late development with cold air becoming entrenched overnight Tuesday into wednesday. Wirh this kind of scraper, we can luck into an inch or two down this way. Obviously not ideal for the masses, but this is the one scenario where a very few of us can score. 

Very true, the 18Z GFS still likes accumulating snow as the coastal low pulls away. Some snow is moving into VA between 1pm and 4pm on Monday with the initial wave, even into the Richmond area between 4pm and 7pm. However, like the 12z run, most snow on Monday afternoon and evening primarily stays north and west of Richmond. Almost all of C VA and Hampton Roads get dry slotted between the snow that falls north and west of Richmond and the precip that begins to develop with the coastal low to our south and east.

It’s not until the coastal low gets going Tuesday morning when rain begins to fall across eastern NC and the Hampton Roads area. But even that is limited and short-lived as 18Z GFS has most of Tuesday dry. But, as the coastal low deepens and begins to pull away, more precip breaks out across the state between 7pm and 10pm Tuesday. It had snow chances until about 7am in Richmond and 10am Wednesday over Hampton Roads and NE NC. 18Z GFS drops 1-2” across most of region (assuming 10:1 ratio, of course), especially in interior SE VA.

 

The 18Z GEFS also still show a snow signal for Tuesday and Wednesday, definitely not giving up hope. Also, by tomorrow night at 00Z, the NAM begins to get within range so we'll begin to see what the short term models do with this set up. 

[RIC Airport]

The 18Z EPS says don't close the blinds on Tues-Wednesday.

 

[RIC Airport]

00Z GFS is hanging on to the snow threat idea. No need to really go into the specific details. Will continue to monitor over the next couple of days until other models align on a solution. 

 

[ldub23]

06 GFS better with several snow chances

 

102

 

 

 

162

 

 

 

 

 

This at  204

 

[Stormpc]

The 6z GFS is what CAN happen with that third wave just off the coast. Cold air in place with moisture thrown over top of the Arctic boundary. That's our only winning scenario in Hampton roads. That's also an outlier. Keep watching...we'll see.

[Conway7305]

On a positive note.  We have a had a ton of moisture this winter from the subtropical jet unlike prior years thanks to El Niño. That won’t be an issue. Hopefully we can get into a favorable pattern in late Jan-Feb. MJO looks to swing back to cold phases in Feb. NAO/AO will eventually go negative again.  Just need PNA to stay positive. Still could score big.  Extended weeklies still look good for below average temps.  I’ll certainly enjoy smaller storms but have most fun tracking the  MECS or HECS storms. Thrill of the chase. 

[Stormpc]

12Z GFS holds/ups the ante for HR/NENC. Not going backwards that's for sure. 

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, Stormpc said:

12Z GFS holds/ups the ante for HR/NENC. Not going backwards that's for sure. 

Definitely alright. The initial wave looks to deliver for most of us, and once the coastal gets going, that provides another opportunity for coastal areas. Liking the trends. The best runs happen when I decide to skip them and get some sleep.

 

The storm for the end of next week and weekend certainly can improve as well. I posted the snow accumulation map for the Friday-Saturday storm, and also the total this run of the GFS did for both events. Hopefully, we score higher. And as @Conway7305mentioned, there should be continued opportunities in the weeks ahead. 

 

[Conway7305]

now, we need to keep an eye on the 20th Storm.