JB Fins Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I will be surprised if we get "vodka cold" but even if it modifies a bit and we have snow on the ground? Might be the coldest stretch run in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, JB Fins said: I will be surprised if we get "vodka cold" but even if it modifies a bit and we have snow on the ground? Might be the coldest stretch run in a while. I call Glen Allen the “Green Bay” of the south! Lol-relatively speaking, of course think about it. If you consider the south, at least on the East Coast from southern Florida all the way up through Virginia, we are indeed the Green Bay of the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Virginia actually does have a Green Bay but we also have a Cuckoo as well. I was in Glen Allen from 2004 to 2013 then to Goochland in Manakin now in Tuckahoe, so yeah, always need to measure our temps and snow as it never matches the airport although, and I credit our forum leader for this one, they have gotten better after changes a few years back with regards to measuring snow, although, none to measure so that helps their accuracy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 They are celebrating the GFS in the main thread, looks a bit dicey for us on that run with mixing and low snow totals. Don't get me wrong, I will take 3-4" over anything with what have had as of late but here them bellyaching all day about suppression when they know it always shifts in their favor annoys the living crap out of me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 8 minutes ago, JB Fins said: They are celebrating the GFS in the main thread, looks a bit dicey for us on that run with mixing and low snow totals. Don't get me wrong, I will take 3-4" over anything with what have had as of late but here them bellyaching all day about suppression when they know it always shifts in their favor annoys the living crap out of me. Well, they don’t really consider Richmond and Hampton Roads part of the Mid-Atlantic. At least, that’s the vibe the bellyaching folks give off. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Yep, I would look at the ensembles. I think either way, Central VA will do good with winter precipitation with the system. I'm up in western Caroline area, which typically does decent with these setups. It all depends on where the low goes which will determine that rain/snow/sleet line. At least we have something to track for once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The euro being suppressed so much gives me hope that this won’t trend too far north for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 7 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said: The euro being suppressed so much gives me hope that this won’t trend too far north for us. I agree. 00Z Euro run will be interesting tonight to see which way it goes. I think we are fine for now in Central VA with this next system. Not saying it will be all snow, but at least primarily frozen. The only caveat is the lack of a 50/50 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 18z GFS ensembles way better for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 Just returned after being away all afternoon. I was surprised to see how dry the op Euro was, but at least the ensembles kept us in fair play, even with the 12Z GFS being a farther north and warmer solution.I’m sure you have already seen these in the other threads, but posting them for our thread since I was unavailable earlier. These maps go through 00z Thursday (7pm Wednesday evening), so they only capture the time frame for the 16th to 17th snow threat. There were 28 of 50 ensembles with at least 2” of snow for RIC. But, there are fewer 4” + members than in the last couple of EPS runs. I'd say a 1-3" event is still within reason, which is a HUGE accomplishment for us. EPS has a 60% probability of 1" of snow at RIC, which means it's more likely than not. EPS puts Norfolk at a 40" chance. Obviously, we hope to score higher, which is still on the table, given the spread of the members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 The below is for the entire 12z EPS run, which is the best we've seen all winter. If this is any indication of the next couple of weeks, we'll be busy tracking snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Thanks RIC, I agree, a cold 1-3” that can stick around for a few days is a big win. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 46 minutes ago, JFLETCHER said: Yep, I would look at the ensembles. I think either way, Central VA will do good with winter precipitation with the system. I'm up in western Caroline area, which typically does decent with these setups. It all depends on where the low goes which will determine that rain/snow/sleet line. At least we have something to track for once. 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 2 hours ago, wasnow215 said: I call Glen Allen the “Green Bay” of the south! Lol-relatively speaking, of course think about it. If you consider the south, at least on the East Coast from southern Florida all the way up through Virginia, we are indeed the Green Bay of the south. 2 hours ago, JB Fins said: Virginia actually does have a Green Bay but we also have a Cuckoo as well. I was in Glen Allen from 2004 to 2013 then to Goochland in Manakin now in Tuckahoe, so yeah, always need to measure our temps and snow as it never matches the airport although, and I credit our forum leader for this one, they have gotten better after changes a few years back with regards to measuring snow, although, none to measure so that helps their accuracy. RIC has a COOP station in Varina that serves as a back up for the FAA contract observers. This is where the December 2018 measurement was taken. 1 hour ago, JB Fins said: They are celebrating the GFS in the main thread, looks a bit dicey for us on that run with mixing and low snow totals. Don't get me wrong, I will take 3-4" over anything with what have had as of late but here them bellyaching all day about suppression when they know it always shifts in their favor annoys the living crap out of me. It happens all the time. For those that've been here long enough, even the many years before Easternuswx abruptly shut down in 2010, this is the reason why we have our own thread. I'm grateful for the participation in this thread, I knew once the first bona fide chance for snow, people were going to return. 1 hour ago, SoCoWx said: Well, they don’t really consider Richmond and Hampton Roads part of the Mid-Atlantic. At least, that’s the vibe the bellyaching folks give off. We are the "Deep South" to them. For the sake of conversation to snow, I'm afraid I have to disagree with others that we are the south. At least from a historical perspective, RIC's snow climate is more aligned with DCA than RDU. The data and past snowstorms do show an RDU correlation with ORF. Again, this is from a historical perspective, looking at the data. Who knows where we are today with warmer oceans and a warmer climate. And to be frank, DC has been no better than we've been lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 4 hours ago, Rhino16 said: The GFS is always super cold 6 days out and I can’t remember if it’s always that potent. 4 hours ago, JB Fins said: I will be surprised if we get "vodka cold" but even if it modifies a bit and we have snow on the ground? Might be the coldest stretch run in a while. 12z GFS had RIC hitting 10°F and the 18Z GFS has 13°F Wednesday morning. We have a pretty cold airmass coming, but I think the GFS was picking up on snow cover, so it probably was a few degrees too cold. With the way this winter has gone, I would be skeptical of it getting that cold, but it is possible if we get a solid snow cover. RIC reached 8°F on 12/24/2022. That was the first single-digit low temperature recorded at Richmond since January 2018, when it hit -3°F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 10 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: For the sake of conversation to snow, I'm afraid I have to disagree with others that we are the south. At least from a historical perspective, RIC's snow climate is more aligned with DCA than RDU. I really don’t think a 5” difference in the mean is that dramatic of a difference, so I agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I’ll Take p28 on 18z GFS Ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 20 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: RIC has a COOP station in Varina that serves as a back up for the FAA contract observers. This is where the December 2018 measurement was taken. It happens all the time. For those that've been here long enough, even the many years before Easternuswx abruptly shut down in 2010, this is the reason why we have our own thread. I'm grateful for the participation in this thread, I knew once the first bona fide chance for snow, people were going to return. We are the "Deep South" to them. For the sake of conversation to snow, I'm afraid I have to disagree with others that we are the south. At least from a historical perspective, RIC's snow climate is more aligned with DCA than RDU. The data and past snowstorms do show an RDU correlation with ORF. Again, this is from a historical perspective, looking at the data. Who knows where we are today with warmer oceans and a warmer climate. And to be frank, DC has been no better than we've been lately. It’s kind of a funny thing I made up a few years ago. Since Va fought with the south in the civil warm I consider it the south. So since we’re the central part of the state and the northern part of the state really is the southern part of the north, I’ve dubbed us Green Bay of the south. Okay moving on haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 17 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 12z GFS had RIC hitting 10°F and the 18Z GFS has 13°F Wednesday morning. We have a pretty cold airmass coming, but I think the GFS was picking up on snow cover, so it probably was a few degrees too cold. With the way this winter has gone, I would be skeptical of it getting that cold, but it is possible if we get a solid snow cover. RIC reached 8°F on 12/24/2022. That was the first single-digit low temperature recorded at Richmond since January 2018, when it hit -3°F. I remember this well. Car battery died overnight into 12/24 and car was just a few months old. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 52 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: I’ll Take p28 on 18z GFS Ensembles p29? I just looked at them, and they've increased my confidence. Hopefully, the 12Z Euro run was a blip. I slowed down the individual members. I don't know about you, but I don't see many with pink. Btw, these are only through 12Z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 27 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: p29? I just looked at them, and they've increased my confidence. Hopefully, the 12Z Euro run was a blip. I slowed down the individual members. I don't know about you, but I don't see many with pink. Btw, these are only through 12Z Thursday. Yes! Meant P29 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 15 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Yes! Meant P29 These are for the entire run. Today's 18Z GEFS was the best GEFS run this winter. If this isn't a snow signal, then I don't know what is. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: These are for the entire run. Today's 18Z GEFS was the best GEFS run this winter. If this isn't a snow signal, then I don't know what is. You all down here will have higher odds than me when I get back to blacksburg. I guess I’ll have bitter cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 Depending on your location, the 00Z 3K NAM and HRRR have tomorrow’s rain entering our region between 4pm and 7pm. Although not as intense as Tuesday night's, both models have a squall line approaching Richmond between 11pm and midnight, then Hampton Roads and NE NC between 1am-and 3am before exiting off the coast. Rainfall totals are generally 0.25” to 0.50”, but higher amounts up to an inch in storm cells are possible. Flood watches are in the north and western parts of the state because there looks to be widespread 1-2" totals. For wind, the 3K NAM has the worst winds, arriving between 7pm and 1am in most areas. Verbatim, it has widespread 50-60mph gusts, with higher gusts along the immediate coastline. HRRR was not as aggressive with the winds as it generally had 40-45mph and 50-55mph only along the immediate coast, where AKQ has issued a wind advisory. SPC also has our area at a marginal risk for severe due to the potential for destructive winds. Interestingly, all models have surface temperatures starting in the low-mid 30s inland and upper 30s to low 40s toward the coast but will peak into the low-mid 60s toward midnight/1am before finally cooling down before sunrise Saturday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 0z GFS has 6” for us. Actually the costal low track is ideal for snow here . It’s a colder solution so no mixing really. Just hope storm doesn’t get suppressed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 00Z GFS was a great hit! Let's just hope it holds and Euro reverses its course from 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 24 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: 0z GFS has 6” for us. Actually the costal low track is ideal for snow here . It’s a colder solution so no mixing really. Just hope storm doesn’t get suppressed. Looks like the 850 0°C line stays south of Petersburg and east of Richmond around West Point this run, so this is an all-snow event. Surface temperatures are around freezing at the start but drop into the 20s during the height of the event. The event's timing is also later, starting later in the day Tuesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Later development, LP further SE after the cold gets entrenched. Great news for RIC and further SE. Not so great up north. Verbatim it's a nice modest hit. Even I see flakes. 25 mins to Chesapeake to see ground coverage. At least we have something. I'd be interested if I lived Williamsburg and north. Good fun until 1am. Till tomorrow... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 That GFS run was like a football team down 23-10 in the 4th qtr (hour 114), but then got its act together to pull out a 24-23 win! Let’s go! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Will be curious to see the 0z ensemble members. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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