Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[Rhino16]

10 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

For the sake of conversation to snow, I'm afraid I have to disagree with others that we are the south. At least from a historical perspective, RIC's snow climate is more aligned with DCA than RDU.

I really don’t think a 5” difference in the mean is that dramatic of a difference, so I agree.

[Conway7305]

I’ll Take p28 on 18z GFS Ensembles

 

[wasnow215]

20 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

RIC has a COOP station in Varina that serves as a back up for the FAA contract observers. This is where the December 2018 measurement was taken. 

It happens all the time. For those that've been here long enough, even the many years before Easternuswx abruptly shut down in 2010, this is the reason why we have our own thread. I'm grateful for the participation in this thread, I knew once the first bona fide chance for snow, people were going to return.

We are the "Deep South" to them.  

For the sake of conversation to snow, I'm afraid I have to disagree with others that we are the south. At least from a historical perspective, RIC's snow climate is more aligned with DCA than RDU. The data and past snowstorms do show an RDU correlation with ORF. Again, this is from a historical perspective, looking at the data. Who knows where we are today with warmer oceans and a warmer climate. And to be frank, DC has been no better than we've been lately. 

It’s kind of a funny thing I made up a few years ago. Since Va fought with the south in the civil warm I consider it the south. So since we’re the central part of the state and the northern part of the state really is the southern part of the north, I’ve dubbed us Green Bay of the south. Okay moving on haha.

[wasnow215]

17 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

12z GFS had RIC hitting 10°F and the 18Z GFS has 13°F Wednesday morning. We have a pretty cold airmass coming, but I think the GFS was picking up on snow cover, so it probably was a few degrees too cold. With the way this winter has gone, I would be skeptical of it getting that cold, but it is possible if we get a solid snow cover. 

RIC reached 8°F on 12/24/2022. That was the first single-digit low temperature recorded at Richmond since January 2018, when it hit -3°F.

I remember this well. Car battery died overnight into 12/24 and car was just a few months old. 

[RIC Airport]

52 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

I’ll Take p28 on 18z GFS Ensembles

 

p29? I just looked at them, and they've increased my confidence. Hopefully, the 12Z Euro run was a blip.

I slowed down the individual members. I don't know about you, but I don't see many with pink. Btw, these are only through 12Z Thursday. 

[Conway7305]

27 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

p29? I just looked at them, and they've increased my confidence. Hopefully, the 12Z Euro run was a blip.

I slowed down the individual members. I don't know about you, but I don't see many with pink. Btw, these are only through 12Z Thursday. 

Yes! Meant P29

[RIC Airport]

15 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Yes! Meant P29

These are for the entire run. Today's 18Z GEFS was the best GEFS run this winter. If this isn't a snow signal, then I don't know what is. 

[Rhino16]

1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

These are for the entire run. Today's 18Z GEFS was the best GEFS run this winter. If this isn't a snow signal, then I don't know what is. 

You all down here will have higher odds than me when I get back to blacksburg. I guess I’ll have bitter cold.

[RIC Airport]

Depending on your location, the 00Z 3K NAM and HRRR have tomorrow’s rain entering our region between 4pm and 7pm. Although not as intense as Tuesday night's, both models have a squall line approaching Richmond between 11pm and midnight, then Hampton Roads and NE NC between 1am-and 3am before exiting off the coast.

 

 Rainfall totals are generally 0.25” to 0.50”, but higher amounts up to an inch in storm cells are possible. Flood watches are in the north and western parts of the state because there looks to be widespread 1-2" totals. 

For wind, the 3K NAM has the worst winds, arriving between 7pm and 1am in most areas. Verbatim, it has widespread 50-60mph gusts, with higher gusts along the immediate coastline. HRRR was not as aggressive with the winds as it generally had 40-45mph and 50-55mph only along the immediate coast, where AKQ has issued a wind advisory. SPC also has our area at a marginal risk for severe due to the potential for destructive winds.

Interestingly, all models have surface temperatures starting in the low-mid 30s inland and upper 30s to low 40s toward the coast but will peak into the low-mid 60s toward midnight/1am before finally cooling down before sunrise Saturday morning.

 

 

[Conway7305]

0z GFS  has  6” for us.  Actually the costal low track is ideal for snow here . It’s a colder  solution so no mixing  really.  Just hope storm doesn’t get suppressed.  

[RIC Airport]

00Z GFS was a great hit! Let's just hope it holds and Euro reverses its course from 12Z. 

 

[RIC Airport]

24 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

0z GFS  has  6” for us.  Actually the costal low track is ideal for snow here . It’s a colder  solution so no mixing  really.  Just hope storm doesn’t get suppressed.  

Looks like the 850 0°C line stays south of Petersburg and east of Richmond around West Point this run, so this is an all-snow event. Surface temperatures are around freezing at the start but drop into the 20s during the height of the event. The event's timing is also later, starting later in the day Tuesday.

[Stormpc]

Later development, LP further SE after the cold gets entrenched. Great news for RIC and further SE. Not so great up north. Verbatim it's a nice modest hit. Even I see flakes. 25 mins to Chesapeake to see ground coverage.   At least we have something.  I'd be interested if I lived Williamsburg and north. Good fun until 1am. Till tomorrow...

[wasnow215]

That GFS run was like a football team down 23-10 in the 4th qtr (hour 114), but then got its act together to pull out a 24-23 win! Let’s go!

[Conway7305]

Will be curious to see the 0z  ensemble members. 

[RIC Airport]

12 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Later development, LP further SE after the cold gets entrenched. Great news for RIC and further SE. Not so great up north. Verbatim it's a nice modest hit. Even I see flakes. 25 mins to Chesapeake to see ground coverage.   At least we have something.  I'd be interested if I lived Williamsburg and north. Good fun until 1am. Till tomorrow...

The GFS has a changeover to snow SE of Williamsburg between 1am and 4am Wednesday as the low pulls away. Looks to be a window of heavy snow, too, for all of Hampton Roads and down to about ECG. I think you'll definitely see flakes.

 

 

[RIC Airport]

GFS looks to have RIC remaining below freezing for 4, possibly 5 days in a row. The last time that happened was back in January of 2018. 

We also need to watch the 21st. @Stormpc

[RIC Airport]

@Conway7305, they still look good to me.

[RIC Airport]

The Euro tried but did not come around for us at 00Z. Although it did try to drop some snow between Richmond and the Hampton Roads area. Hopefully, the EPS saves us after this, however I will not be staying up for them. 

Still a ways to go, so much can still change. 

[RIC Airport]

17 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

The Euro tried but did not come around for us at 00Z. Although it did try to drop some snow between Richmond and the Hampton Roads area. Hopefully, the EPS saves us after this, however I will not be staying up for them. 

Still a ways to go, so much can still change. 

The good news is the 00Z GEFS and was still on par with the 18Z GEFS. Here is the entire run. 

For, @Stormpc

[ldub23]

06GFS still looks good  for  RIC

 

[SoCoWx]

14 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

06GFS still looks good  for  RIC

 

This is not for the storm coming up in 5 days.

[Rhino16]

26 minutes ago, SoCoWx said:

This is not for the storm coming up in 5 days.

Indeed it is, the run after it is just that empty.

[eaglesin2011]

Don’t get the reason why people keep posting totals for multiple storms that haven’t even happened yet…

I can understand the overall totals but hell Tuesdays storm is what needs to set up everything first  & really is our best shot for a decent snow that we had around here in years..

[Rhino16]

7 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Don’t get the reason why people keep posting totals for multiple storms that haven’t even happened yet…

I can understand the overall totals but hell Tuesdays storm is what needs to set up everything first  & really is our best shot for a decent snow that we had around here in years..

There’s only one storm?

[eaglesin2011]

Not what I’m saying.. I just don’t know why some are jumping right past todays and Tuesdays storms like they don’t matter .. It is what is going to set up everything & add up to get to the final totals.. Hell it’s far from certain that we will get any accumulating snows out of this 
So, the “mean totals” really don’t matter until these storms pass..

 

[Conway7305]

Unfortunately the GFS is trending to the EURO which gives us basically nothing.  A surprise inch or two would be nice.  I hope this winter has some more  uncomplicated storms for us.  I remember 2016 all models showed that storm 10 days out and never budged much. 

[RIC Airport]

So, looking at the 12Z GFS, some precip begins moving into the state between 10pm Monday and 1am Tuesday, but this precip area (snow) primarily stays north and west of Richmond. Surface temps around RIC are around freezing but start to increase as the low approaches. More precip (rain) enters NE NC and southside Hampton Roads between 4am and 7am, while RIC and most of C VA remain dry slotted between the two areas of precip.

By 10am Tuesday, RIC had risen to 37°F, and ORF was at 43°F as the low approached our latitude. There is an area of light rain from the Eastern Shore down into Eastern NC. By 4pm, RIC is at 38°F as more precip begins to develop south and east of RIC. By 7pm, the low is well east of Virginia but somehow moisture begins to blossom well to the west, and that is when snow begins to break out around RIC, and the temps begin to drop toward freezing. Light snow continues to fall in the Richmond area from about 7pm Tuesday and then becomes moderate to heavy between 1am and 4am Wednesday as temps continue to fall. As temps continue to fall behind the departing low, the temperatures even in SE VA lower, and the heavier snow band moves SE and over all of Hampton Roads between 4am and 7am Wednesday before taping off shortly after that.

The farthest north and west the 850°C line gets is at hour 99 (10am Tuesday). It stays south and east of RIC from just south of Petersburg and toward West Point. This suggests that it may be too warm only at the surface, at least initially, to snow should there is precip around in the RVA metro. But it's during this time most of C VA is in the dry slot anyway. 

 

[RIC Airport]

23 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Unfortunately the GFS is trending to the EURO which gives us basically nothing.  A surprise inch or two would be nice.  I hope this winter has some more  uncomplicated storms for us.  I remember 2016 all models showed that storm 10 days out and never budged much. 

Yeah, it's never good when one of the major global models doesn't come on board, and others tend to cave in that direction. But, as I've seen, strange things can happen within 72 hours. I just wanted to explain what this GFS run did in our region. Not that we should take it verbatim.

I don't believe the 12Z GFS solution is correct, just how it evolved and suddenly threw a bunch of precip back at the last minute. 

[RIC Airport]

3 hours ago, SoCoWx said:

This is not for the storm coming up in 5 days.

2 hours ago, Rhino16 said:

Indeed it is, the run after it is just that empty.

2 hours ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Not what I’m saying.. I just don’t know why some are jumping right past todays and Tuesdays storms like they don’t matter .. It is what is going to set up everything & add up to get to the final totals.. Hell it’s far from certain that we will get any accumulating snows out of this 
So, the “mean totals” really don’t matter until these storms pass..

 

I've pointed that out a few times over the last few weeks.

I believe I now know why @ldub23 has a weenie tag on his account. And I am beginning to think that willy-nilly posting the 384-hour GFS in the Mid Atlantic long range thread, where many admins and moderators hang out, with no analysis or proper context had much to do with it.