Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[Conway7305]

Anyone looking at radar, looks good out W. 

[RVASnowLover]

Need to get more out of the ULL. Won’t get much from it if it’s weak, dries up 

[TampaMan]

3 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Anyone looking at radar, looks good out W. 

Take a look at the moisture out west and the gulf. If they could meet in the middle this would be a HECS. There is a possibility that this could still go boom. I think WTVR, WRIC and DT are betting on that. 

[TampaMan]

If I’m being honest, everyone here around RVA should be happy we’re very likely to get 3 inches. Over an 80% chance. 

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

7 minutes ago, RVAman said:

If I’m being honest, everyone here around RVA should be happy we’re very likely to get 3 inches. Over an 80% chance. 

Yeah. I don’t see RIC getting much more than 4-5” max. Maybe if we get under some banding, but I have my doubts. Hope I’m wrong.

[wasnow215]

8 minutes ago, RVAman said:

If I’m being honest, everyone here around RVA should be happy we’re very likely to get 3 inches. Over an 80% chance. 

My birthday storm...4-8"...let's do this!

[TampaMan]

Just now, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said:

Yeah. I don’t see RIC getting much more than 4-5” max. Maybe if we get under some banding, but I have my doubts. Hope I’m wrong.

I think I speak for a good amount of us when I say we will gladly take 4-5 inches in a heart beat. That will be the highest QPF storm this season. On top of that everything will be stuck to, everything. 

[Conway7305]

8 minutes ago, RVAman said:

Take a look at the moisture out west and the gulf. If they could meet in the middle this would be a HECS. There is a possibility that this could still go boom. I think WTVR, WRIC and DT are betting on that. 

There is also some talk in the main thread about surprise boom at the last minute but low confidence obviously.  stormchaserChuck says it has happened before back in 2009.  AO standard deviation was  -5 like now and lifted out last minute. I’m not familiar/experienced with some of the technical stuff but good to hear surprises happen. 

 

 

[seether]

Ill be Ecstatic with 3-5 inches in Chester just south of Richmond considering the winters we have had.  people got to hung up on the clown forecast models that they forget for most 4-6 is the biggest snow storm in years.

[TampaMan]

Just now, Conway7305 said:

There is also some talk in the main thread about surprise boom at the last minute but low confidence obviously.  stormchaserChuck says it has happened before back in 2009.  AO standard deviation was  -5 like now and lifted out last minute. I’m not familiar/experienced with some of the technical stuff but good to hear surprises happen. 

 

 

I’m not well versed or educated enough to make a prediction like that. I don’t think it’ll happen but it certainly is possible. I’d say a 1/10 chance (goes in line with the high end total map from the NWS). I think we can comfortably expect 3-5 with pockets of 6 towards the eastern counties in Richmond. Towards Petersburg to Williamsburg expect 6-8 inches. Hampton Roads, Norfolk and VA beach can expect up to 10 inches but I think 8-9 is likely the sweet spot. Mixing could become an issue down there if the low gets closer to the coast like it appeared to do in the 0z NAM. The ULL will occur it’s just a matter of if the atmosphere will still be saturated enough, how quickly it arrives and how long it stays. If it sticks around for 2-3 hours fully expect another half inch to an inch and a half depending on rates. We aren’t getting the MECS or HECS we all wanted but we are indeed getting measurable snow. Many of us will likely have a half day tomorrow with the possibility of Thursday being a remote day or day off. 

[TampaMan]

Just now, seether said:

Ill be Ecstatic with 3-5 inches in Chester just south of Richmond considering the winters we have had.  people got to hung up on the clown forecast models that they forget for most 4-6 is the biggest snow storm in years.

Where you are you are more likely to see the 5-7 inch mean. 

[TampaMan]

You folks down past New Kent towards Hampton Roads enjoy. I won’t say you deserve it because you’ve had higher totals than RVA has in recent years but I will root for you if we can’t get it. I do think VA Beach will have issues with high totals. They always do. 

[seether]

2 minutes ago, RVAman said:

Where you are you are more likely to see the 5-7 inch mean. 

Yah were effectively on the edge of Colonial Heights. 

[overcautionisbad]

Anyone got the NAMs yet?

[TampaMan]

12km and 3km. I think the 3km is a fluke. 

[TampaMan]

5 minutes ago, seether said:

Yah were effectively on the edge of Colonial Heights. 

Enjoy it down there. It should be fun. Take a pic with your tape measurer for us. Matter of fact, we all should do so at the end of the initial snowfall and after the ULL to compare before and after. 

[overcautionisbad]

2 minutes ago, RVAman said:

12km and 3km. I think the 3km is a fluke. 

There you have it then. I predict 5-6 for North Chesterfield

[TampaMan]

Just now, overcautionisbad said:

There you have it then. I predict 5-6

I’ll take it! I still have to go with my final 3-5. The 3K NAM may be a fluke, may not. If so, the 1-3 range may be more likely. I’m hedging on the higher end right now. I truly do think that dry slot that pushes S to N will not be as broad and more moisture will be prominent. 

[overcautionisbad]

4 minutes ago, RVAman said:

I’ll take it! I still have to go with my final 3-5. The 3K NAM may be a fluke, may not. If so, the 1-3 range may be more likely. I’m hedging on the higher end right now. I truly do think that dry slot that pushes S to N will not be as broad and more moisture will be prominent. 

I'll definitely post a pic of my own measurements with my ruler tomorrow and whenever it stops. If I'm wrong I'll blame the weather for being wrong and state that I was right.

 

We'll see what happens tomorrow. Models could be way wrong and we end up with 15 again. Who knows until it happens. No, I don't think that will happen, but it would be funny as hell.

[TampaMan]

1 minute ago, overcautionisbad said:

I'll definitely post a pic of my own measurements with my ruler tomorrow and whenever it stops. If I'm wrong I'll blame the weather for being wrong and state that I was right.

I don’t think you’ll be far off. I just like to be conservative similar to NBC12 and the NWS. 

[overcautionisbad]

3 minutes ago, RVAman said:

I don’t think you’ll be far off. I just like to be conservative similar to NBC12 and the NWS. 

I figure I could be wrong about 2 inches either way. Anything more would surprise me. But Im just an inexperienced guy guessing based an untrained mind looking at info.

 

Idk, I guess 3 decades of living in this area has me thinking at least decent snow since it is February and we don't have to worry about rain.

[TampaMan]

2 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said:

I figure I could be wrong about 2 inches either way. Anything more would surprise me. But Im just an inexperienced guy guessing based an untrained mind looking at info.

We all are man! A select few went to school and studied this stuff. Most of us are a group of guys / girls who share interest in the science behind snow, not those folks on Facebook commenting on meteorologists posts saying “how much for 23224” and so on while there’s a literal map in their face. It actually concerns me how many Americans can’t locate themselves on a map. 

[overcautionisbad]

3 minutes ago, RVAman said:

We all are man! A select few went to school and studied this stuff. Most of us are a group of guys / girls who share interest in the science behind snow, not those folks on Facebook commenting on meteorologists posts saying “how much for 23224” and so on while there’s a literal map in their face. It actually concerns me how many Americans can’t locate themselves on a map. 

True enough. Here's NBC 12's update moments ago. Not much change. They say 3-6 in Richmond. 6 is possible south and east. They say it will start between 7am and 10 am and stick immediately 

[TampaMan]

4 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said:

True enough. Here's NBC 12's update moments ago. Not much change. They say 3-6 in Richmond. 6 is possible south and east. They say it will start between 7am and 10 am and stick immediately 

They seem to keep it at a 2-6 map. It’s fair and reasonable. I’m shocked there are only two colors however. This will not be the case. You won’t have some areas getting 2-6 and a county over 6-12. That’s such a weird map. Should really be 1-3, 2-4, 6-8 , 8-10. 

[overcautionisbad]

1 minute ago, RVAman said:

They seem to keep it at a 2-6 map. It’s fair and reasonable. I’m shocked there are only two colors however. This will not be the case. You won’t have some areas getting 2-6 and a county over 6-12. That’s such a weird map. Should really be 1-3, 2-4, 6-8 , 8-10. 

Yeah, honestly their map feels lazy

[Inudaw]

2 minutes ago, RVAman said:

They seem to keep it at a 2-6 map. It’s fair and reasonable. I’m shocked there are only two colors however. This will not be the case. You won’t have some areas getting 2-6 and a county over 6-12. That’s such a weird map. Should really be 1-3, 2-4, 6-8 , 8-10. 

This usually happens when there is low confidence of where and how much accumulations would be.   Its a way to cover the uncertainty of the event.   But yea its comes off as a bit lazy. 

[TampaMan]

1 minute ago, RIC Airport said:

Will they go boom or bust?

 

I’m gonna go with meet halfway. 

[TampaMan]

4 minutes ago, Inudaw said:

This usually happens when there is low confidence of where and how much accumulations would be.   Its a way to cover the uncertainty of the event.   But yea its comes off as a bit lazy. 

I get that aspect on things. Does come across as lazy. I think they can say “ha, we were right and WTVR / WRIC were wrong” with this formula. At the end of the day that’s all they care about. 

[wasnow215]

14 minutes ago, RVAman said:

They seem to keep it at a 2-6 map. It’s fair and reasonable. I’m shocked there are only two colors however. This will not be the case. You won’t have some areas getting 2-6 and a county over 6-12. That’s such a weird map. Should really be 1-3, 2-4, 6-8 , 8-10. 

Look at the map again though. Very well could be 2" at Kings Dominion and then up to 6" near Petersburg and of course spots in between get 3-5 between there north to south. Then apply the same thinking in the 6-12" band. 6" at or just south of Petersburg for instance to 12" at Norfolk. They're not going to use multiple colors like that on a tv map. 

[TampaMan]

2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Look at the map again though. Very well could be 2" at Kings Dominion and then up to 6" near Petersburg and of course spots in between get 3-5 between there north to south. Then apply the same thinking in the 6-12" band. 6" at or just south of Petersburg for instance to 12" at Norfolk. They're not going to use multiple colors like that on a tv map. 

They typically do in all honesty. There’s usually 3 colors at the minimum. Regardless, doesn’t matter. Whatever happens, happens. Every one get some rest, we’re less than 12 hours from snow falling and show time. Goodnight! Praying for 5-6 inches, will pray for 3-5 for good luck. Night!