wasnow215 Posted Tuesday at 05:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:42 PM 1 minute ago, Dick_LeBoof said: Seems like the Euro is keeping QPFs way down? Can someone explain what drives moisture forecast for this setup? Is it how close the coastal low gets? Or related to energy from the gulf? This may be simplified but the NAM especially seems to be developing a true coastal system and Euro is a true slider. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Tuesday at 05:43 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:43 PM CMC is also NW of 0z. This is a good trend here on 12z:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Tuesday at 05:44 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:44 PM 1 minute ago, RVAman said: Euro is a step NW. showing the moisture expanding further as well. I can go against the king now. I’m willing to bet it’s wrong. I could very well be wrong but there are signs. Your 4-6" call is still a blend and I think it's solid. Not like you went 9-12 like WRIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted Tuesday at 05:49 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:49 PM 3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Your 4-6" call is still a blend and I think it's solid. Not like you went 9-12 like WRIC I agree with your call as well. If this thing starts churning the NAM could be spot on. I think it’s time to stop looking at OP models and rely on short range. We’re within 24 hours now. Almost time to nowcast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted Tuesday at 05:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:52 PM I dont know much about all this, but it seems to me just a small change in moisture really changes the accumulation totals on a cold storm like this. That makes me expect the short range model to pick up on that better then the Euro that swung from 22 inches to 3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted Tuesday at 05:54 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:54 PM 1 minute ago, overcautionisbad said: I dont know much about all this, but it seems to me just a small change in moisture really changes the accumulation totals on a cold storm like this. That makes me expect the short range model to pick up on that better then the Euro that swung from 22 inches to 3. That’s why it’s time to go to short range models imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted Tuesday at 05:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:55 PM 11 minutes ago, RVAman said: Euro is a step NW. showing the moisture expanding further as well. I can go against the king now. I’m willing to bet it’s wrong. I could very well be wrong but there are signs. I would put more credence in the 3K than the 12K. I can't see 8 in of snow getting into Philly and New York. Now the 3K is a pretty good bomb in the Richmond area without that silly northern Edge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deep Creek Posted Tuesday at 06:05 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:05 PM Henrico Co schools just closed for tomorrow. Must be getting a storm or something. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Tuesday at 06:07 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:07 PM Henrico just announced schools are closed tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted Tuesday at 06:07 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:07 PM 33 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said: That's probably what everyone thought in 2018 too It could be right. Maybe it's seeing something the euro isn't picking up on but for now I'm hesitant to go that high. Maybe bump it to 6-8" if it continues. This is Richmond btw which finds ways to get screwed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Tuesday at 06:08 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 06:08 PM If the long range GFS is right, we'll be going right back to tracking after this storm. Yes, March is a snow month, too. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick_LeBoof Posted Tuesday at 06:09 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:09 PM 25 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: This may be simplified but the NAM especially seems to be developing a true coastal system and Euro is a true slider. Interesting! Seems like this mostly has characteristics of a Miller-A? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Tuesday at 06:11 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:11 PM 1 minute ago, Dick_LeBoof said: Interesting! Seems like this mostly has characteristics of a Miller-A? Maybe-the Euro has the upper level low pushing the developing coastal low not capturing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Tuesday at 06:14 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 06:14 PM 7 minutes ago, Deep Creek said: Henrico Co schools just closed for tomorrow. Must be getting a storm or something. 6 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Henrico just announced schools are closed tomorrow. State of Emergency declared, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Tuesday at 06:21 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 06:21 PM 15z SREFs is a step back from 9z. I am guessing the 18z NAM won't be as good for the Richmond area, but Hampton Roads still in good shape. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted Tuesday at 06:25 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:25 PM NAM may be a hair less at 18z but likely pretty similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted Tuesday at 06:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:27 PM 19 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Henrico just announced schools are closed tomorrow. Can't recall ever closing still under a Watch but I went to HCPS in far different times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Tuesday at 06:28 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 06:28 PM 4 minutes ago, RVAman said: NAM may be a hair less at 18z but likely pretty similar. There was roughly a 0.20" QPF drop around RIC compared to the 9z run mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted Tuesday at 06:30 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:30 PM 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: There was roughly a 0.20" QPF drop around RIC compared to the 9z run mean. Exepct NAM to follow. Have to see if it's a trend towards the euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted Tuesday at 06:31 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:31 PM 3 minutes ago, JB Fins said: Can't recall ever closing still under a Watch but I went to HCPS in far different times. Back in my day snow had to be on the ground before school was canceled. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted Tuesday at 06:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:38 PM 7 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: Exepct NAM to follow. Have to see if it's a trend towards the euro. Not expecting NAM to follow. I expect the NAM to stay consistent as it has been doing. SREF could very well be an anonymity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted Tuesday at 07:10 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:10 PM GRAF seems to be pushing snow across the West Virginia boarder from TN by 7 pm tonight. Could start earlier if correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deep Creek Posted Tuesday at 07:14 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:14 PM 48 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 15z SREFs is a step back from 9z. I am guessing the 18z NAM won't be as good for the Richmond area, but Hampton Roads still in good shape. qpf-wise, yes a step back. But, gotta appreciate the nice clustering btw .50-1.00. Take away the bottom two and top two outliers, and still get a mean of .69”. That’s still a sizeable storm and hopefully not a trend for more downward changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Tuesday at 07:22 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 07:22 PM 7 minutes ago, Deep Creek said: qpf-wise, yes a step back. But, gotta appreciate the nice clustering btw .50-1.00. Take away the bottom two and top two outliers, and still get a mean of .69”. That’s still a sizeable storm and hopefully not a trend for more downward changes. Right, I don't disagree, just highlighting it's not as high as the 9z. Would still be a terrific event in that RIC has not had an official 6"+ storm since December 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Tuesday at 07:24 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 07:24 PM Warnings out for RIC Metro now. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 222 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 VAZ061-062-068-069-082-083-512>520-190330- /O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0005.250219T1100Z-250220T2300Z/ /O.EXA.KAKQ.WS.W.0005.250219T1100Z-250220T2300Z/ Cumberland-Goochland-Amelia-Powhatan-Charles City-New Kent- Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-Eastern King and Queen- 222 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 6 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central and east central Virginia. * WHEN...From 6 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Call 511 for road information. && $$ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted Tuesday at 07:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:27 PM Ah, that's better, like Molly Ringwald, I feel all Pretty in Pink. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted Tuesday at 07:30 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:30 PM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted Tuesday at 07:37 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:37 PM 11 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Warnings out for RIC Metro now. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 222 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 VAZ061-062-068-069-082-083-512>520-190330- /O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0005.250219T1100Z-250220T2300Z/ /O.EXA.KAKQ.WS.W.0005.250219T1100Z-250220T2300Z/ Cumberland-Goochland-Amelia-Powhatan-Charles City-New Kent- Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-Eastern King and Queen- 222 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 6 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central and east central Virginia. * WHEN...From 6 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Call 511 for road information. && $$ AKQ may be late to the party at times but are usually right. NAM is an outlier right now. See if it backs off any at 18Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Tuesday at 07:37 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 07:37 PM Don't think the 18z HRRR will make as many fans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted Tuesday at 07:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:38 PM City of Va Beach has closed all city offices and facilities tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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