Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[eaglesin2011]

On the brink of a decent storm but a slight movement either way could make a big difference…I’m still waiting to see the outputs after tomorrow storm passes.. 

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, eaglesin2011 said:

On the brink of a decent storm but a slight movement either way could make a big difference…I’m still waiting to see the outputs after tomorrow storm passes.. 

Definitely gonna be interesting. Hopefully, this doesn't slip away from us.   The 6Z GFS was a step back but produced snow on the backside.

Here is the 6Z GEFS, though. Most hits are centered around 1/16 to 1/17, which the below maps focus on. Looking at the charts, snow threats beyond early next week were weak, @ldub23. Today's 12Z could very well have a SE ridge at 384. I also added ECG for you, @Stormpc.

[RIC Airport]

FWIW, the 6Z EPS only goes out to hour 144 so the event is not quite over. I do not see anything alarming. I think this indicates that 12Z EPS will probably be decent.  

[wasnow215]

12z GFS

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, wasnow215 said:

12z GFS

12Z GFS is still a snow event, particularly for the Richmond area, but as usual, the devil is in the details. GFS depicts some mid-level warm concerns for a portion of the storm. Although surface temps are around freezing when the precip starts, the 850 MB temp starts around +1°C at 15Z Tuesday and drops to 0°C by 18Z and -2°C by 21Z. It’s during this time the bulk of the precip is falling, and so that’s why things are complicated along, south and east of about US Hwy 360. So, its hard to say exactly how much this cuts down totals. But, I think RIC should see its first inch. Not as confident about Hampton Roads, although even the southside could see falling snow as the storm pulls away. 

[ldub23]

Looks  like central va will get a good snow.

 

 

More snow!!

 

[RIC Airport]

Interestingly, the GFS gets us very cold following the storm. GFS has widespread single digits and low teens inland, with RIC hitting 10°F Wednesday morning and only 24°F for a high. If it's true that RIC only reaches 24°F, it would be the coldest high temperature since 12/23/22. I went back to 2010, and below are the coldest high temperatures since then.  

Threshold Exceedance Summary

Station: RICHMOND BYRD AP 
State: VA 
ID: 447201 
Latitude:  37.51 degrees 
Longitude: -77.32 degrees 
Elevation: 166 feet 
Station period of record: 01/01/1897-01/10/2024

CLIMOD product: Thresholds 
Creation time: 01/11/2024 11:54 EST
Element: Maximum Temperature
Units: degree F
Threshold: <=23.00
Years: 2010 - 2023
Season: November - March
Column delimiter: tab

Date	         Value
01/07/2014	   22
01/22/2014	   23
02/16/2015	   22
02/19/2015	   23
02/20/2015	   21
01/06/2018	   23
01/07/2018	   23

[ldub23]

In se va we will get the worst weather  possible. Bitter cold and  nothing to show for  it. Good Ric will get snow.

 

RIC may end  up with a foot+ thru 16 days

 

 

 

[JB Fins]

I will wait for the King to weigh in at 1 before I get the slightest of hopes up.

I will take a few inches, minimum, and then have it hang around for a while, that would be nice.

 

 

[RIC Airport]

30 minutes ago, JB Fins said:

I will wait for the King to weigh in at 1 before I get the slightest of hopes up.

I will take a few inches, minimum, and then have it hang around for a while, that would be nice.

Yup, not giving up hope since the Euro has been more consistent and colder for us! 

I added the total QPF and the Kuchera map to my above post. Unfortunately, I'll be away from my computer most of the afternoon and won't be active when the Euro runs. I'll try to peak at my phone at least when I can, but later this evening, I'll be fully available to comment for our region, which you won't see in the forum long-range thread. (aka the DC only ).

[wasnow215]

9 minutes ago, JB Fins said:

I will wait for the King to weigh in at 1 before I get the slightest of hopes up.

I will take a few inches, minimum, and then have it hang around for a while, that would be nice.

 

 

Oh I think it’ll hang around a while! “Vodka cold” through the weekend. Look at 7am Wed!

[RIC Airport]

AKQ is beginning to message about the threat.

[Rhino16]

1 hour ago, wasnow215 said:

Oh I think it’ll hang around a while! “Vodka cold” through the weekend. Look at 7am Wed!

Is this realistic, or could it be overdoing it a bit?

[JB Fins]

I dunno, seems we never verify on the cold side like that, now if it showed 70's in January, I would say book it.  

My experience is that it always modifies, if it is forecasting single digits for RVA, it's probably more like mid to upper teens.

Now, out there in Hokie Bird Land, you might be single digits for sure.

[Rhino16]

Just now, JB Fins said:

I dunno, seems we never verify on the cold side like that, now if it showed 70's in January, I would say book it.  

My experience is that it always modifies, if it is forecasting single digits for RVA, it's probably more like mid to upper teens.

The GFS is always super cold 6 days out and I can’t remember if it’s always that potent.

[JB Fins]

I will be surprised if we get "vodka cold" but even if it modifies a bit and we have snow on the ground?  Might be the coldest stretch run in a while.

[wasnow215]

1 hour ago, JB Fins said:

I will be surprised if we get "vodka cold" but even if it modifies a bit and we have snow on the ground?  Might be the coldest stretch run in a while.

I call Glen Allen the “Green Bay” of the south! Lol-relatively speaking, of course think about it. If you consider the south, at least on the East Coast from southern Florida all the way up through Virginia, we are indeed the Green Bay of the south.

[JB Fins]

Virginia actually does have a Green Bay but we also have a Cuckoo as well.  

I was in Glen Allen from 2004 to 2013 then to Goochland in Manakin now in Tuckahoe, so yeah, always need to measure our temps and snow as it never matches the airport although, and I credit our forum leader for this one, they have gotten better after changes a few years back with regards to measuring snow, although, none to measure so that helps their accuracy.

[JB Fins]

They are celebrating the GFS in the main thread, looks a bit dicey for us on that run with mixing and low snow totals.  Don't get me wrong, I will take 3-4" over anything with what have had as of late but here them bellyaching all day about suppression when they know it always shifts in their favor annoys the living crap out of me.

[SoCoWx]

8 minutes ago, JB Fins said:

They are celebrating the GFS in the main thread, looks a bit dicey for us on that run with mixing and low snow totals.  Don't get me wrong, I will take 3-4" over anything with what have had as of late but here them bellyaching all day about suppression when they know it always shifts in their favor annoys the living crap out of me.

Well, they don’t really consider Richmond and Hampton Roads part of the Mid-Atlantic. At least, that’s the vibe the bellyaching folks give off.

[JFLETCHER]

Yep, I would look at the ensembles. I think either way, Central VA will do good with winter precipitation with the system. I'm up in western Caroline area, which typically does decent with these setups. It all depends on where the low goes which will determine that rain/snow/sleet line. 

 

At least we have something to track for once.

[mikeeng92]

The euro being suppressed so much gives me hope that this won’t trend too far north for us. 

[JFLETCHER]

7 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said:

The euro being suppressed so much gives me hope that this won’t trend too far north for us. 

I agree. 00Z Euro run will be interesting tonight to see which way it goes. I think we are fine for now in Central VA with this next system. Not saying it will be all snow, but at least primarily frozen. The only caveat is the lack of a 50/50 low.

[Conway7305]

18z GFS ensembles way better for our area 

[RIC Airport]

Just returned after being away all afternoon. I was surprised to see how dry the op Euro was, but at least the ensembles kept us in fair play, even with the 12Z GFS being a farther north and warmer solution.

I’m sure you have already seen these in the other threads, but posting them for our thread since I was unavailable earlier. These maps go through 00z Thursday (7pm Wednesday evening), so they only capture the time frame for the 16th to 17th snow threat.

There were 28 of 50 ensembles with at least 2” of snow for RIC. But, there are fewer 4” + members than in the last couple of EPS runs. I'd say a 1-3" event is still within reason, which is a HUGE accomplishment for us. EPS has a 60% probability of 1" of snow at RIC, which means it's more likely than not. EPS puts Norfolk at a 40" chance. Obviously, we hope to score higher, which is still on the table, given the spread of the members. 

[RIC Airport]

The below is for the entire 12z EPS run, which is the best we've seen all winter. If this is any indication of the next couple of weeks, we'll be busy tracking snow. 

[mikeeng92]

Thanks RIC, I agree, a cold 1-3” that can stick around for a few days is a big win. 

[wasnow215]

46 minutes ago, JFLETCHER said:

Yep, I would look at the ensembles. I think either way, Central VA will do good with winter precipitation with the system. I'm up in western Caroline area, which typically does decent with these setups. It all depends on where the low goes which will determine that rain/snow/sleet line. 

 

At least we have something to track for once.

100%

[RIC Airport]

2 hours ago, wasnow215 said:

I call Glen Allen the “Green Bay” of the south! Lol-relatively speaking, of course think about it. If you consider the south, at least on the East Coast from southern Florida all the way up through Virginia, we are indeed the Green Bay of the south.

2 hours ago, JB Fins said:

Virginia actually does have a Green Bay but we also have a Cuckoo as well.  

I was in Glen Allen from 2004 to 2013 then to Goochland in Manakin now in Tuckahoe, so yeah, always need to measure our temps and snow as it never matches the airport although, and I credit our forum leader for this one, they have gotten better after changes a few years back with regards to measuring snow, although, none to measure so that helps their accuracy.

RIC has a COOP station in Varina that serves as a back up for the FAA contract observers. This is where the December 2018 measurement was taken. 

1 hour ago, JB Fins said:

They are celebrating the GFS in the main thread, looks a bit dicey for us on that run with mixing and low snow totals.  Don't get me wrong, I will take 3-4" over anything with what have had as of late but here them bellyaching all day about suppression when they know it always shifts in their favor annoys the living crap out of me.

It happens all the time. For those that've been here long enough, even the many years before Easternuswx abruptly shut down in 2010, this is the reason why we have our own thread. I'm grateful for the participation in this thread, I knew once the first bona fide chance for snow, people were going to return.

1 hour ago, SoCoWx said:

Well, they don’t really consider Richmond and Hampton Roads part of the Mid-Atlantic. At least, that’s the vibe the bellyaching folks give off.

We are the "Deep South" to them.  

For the sake of conversation to snow, I'm afraid I have to disagree with others that we are the south. At least from a historical perspective, RIC's snow climate is more aligned with DCA than RDU. The data and past snowstorms do show an RDU correlation with ORF. Again, this is from a historical perspective, looking at the data. Who knows where we are today with warmer oceans and a warmer climate. And to be frank, DC has been no better than we've been lately. 

[RIC Airport]

4 hours ago, Rhino16 said:

The GFS is always super cold 6 days out and I can’t remember if it’s always that potent.

4 hours ago, JB Fins said:

I will be surprised if we get "vodka cold" but even if it modifies a bit and we have snow on the ground?  Might be the coldest stretch run in a while.

12z GFS had RIC hitting 10°F and the 18Z GFS has 13°F Wednesday morning. We have a pretty cold airmass coming, but I think the GFS was picking up on snow cover, so it probably was a few degrees too cold. With the way this winter has gone, I would be skeptical of it getting that cold, but it is possible if we get a solid snow cover. 

RIC reached 8°F on 12/24/2022. That was the first single-digit low temperature recorded at Richmond since January 2018, when it hit -3°F.