Rhino16 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The 14 years between the winters of 1947-1948 to 1961-1962 was the longest time without a 20+” snowfall winter. They were surprisingly common! This year will be the 14th year since the 2009-10 winter… Edit: this is incorrect as it only considers dec-feb, see RIC AIRPORT’s correct info below 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 20 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: The 14 years between the winters of 1947-1948 to 1961-1962 was the longest time without a 20+” snowfall winter. They were surprisingly common! This year will be the 14th year since the 2009-10 winter… Wow, didn’t realize it was that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 45 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: The 14 years between the winters of 1947-1948 to 1961-1962 was the longest time without a 20+” snowfall winter. They were surprisingly common! This year will be the 14th year since the 2009-10 winter… Love the reverse jinx possibility!! Let’s do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 18z Euro Ensembles. Let’s keep it going! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 20 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: 18z Euro Ensembles. Let’s keep it going! Definitely an improvement from 12Z, too! Here are the 18Z GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 2 hours ago, Rhino16 said: The 14 years between the winters of 1947-1948 to 1961-1962 was the longest time without a 20+” snowfall winter. I am unsure where that came from, but that is incorrect, assuming it is for Richmond. 1957-58 was a 20"+ season (20.2") and also 1959-60 (32.2"). It looks like the current stretch of 13 seasons from 2010-11 to 2022-23 ties the record longest with 1996-97 to 2008-09. Should we make it the rest of 2023-24 without reaching 20 inches, it would become a new record of 14 consecutive seasons without reaching 20". Although not specific to your post, I would also like to point out that the 30-year averages are tallied by calendar year. For example, the 1991-2020 30-year norms, means, and extremes, currently in use by NCEI, runs from 1/1/1991 to 12/31/2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 57 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: I am unsure where that came from, but that is incorrect, assuming it is for Richmond. 1957-58 was a 20"+ season (20.2") and also 1959-60 (32.2"). It looks like the current stretch of 13 seasons from 2010-11 to 2022-23 ties the record longest with 1996-97 to 2008-09. Should we make it the rest of 2023-24 without reaching 20 inches, it would become a new record of 14 consecutive seasons without reaching 20". Although not specific to your post, I would also like to point out that the 30-year averages are tallied by calendar year. For example, the 1991-2020 30-year norms, means, and extremes, currently in use by NCEI, runs from 1/1/1991 to 12/31/2020. Oops, I had that thing sorted by Winter (Dec-Feb), so anything that happened after that probably got omitted! My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 17 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: Oops, I had that thing sorted by Winter (Dec-Feb), so anything that happened after that probably got omitted! My bad. Ah, no worries. I can see how that can happen. For the calendar year, 2018 was the last to reach 20" thanks to the 12/9/2018 storm. But, there have not been many since about 1990, which seems to have been a turning point when looking at the period of record data back to 1897. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 The 00z 3K NAM has Friday's rain arriving between 5pm and 6pm and moving offshore by 3am Saturday. Rainfall amounts look nothing like yesterday's storm, generally under a half inch, with the most in the northern and western areas. Totals across far SE VA and NE NC were the driest this run, which is on par with the NBM model. The 3K NAM still had high wind gusts exceeding 50mph in many areas. SPC added a marginal risk of severe across our part of the region, probably due to the strong winds. They might expand the risk area in tomorrow morning's update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 00Z GFS keeps us in the game and seems closer to a decent event early next week. This is definitely not the end solution. I will not be staying up for the Euro. I will be looking at everything when I wake up. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I don’t think the GFS is handling the southern stream energy well. 500mb are drastically changing run to run. EURO has not wavered much at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 55 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: I don’t think the GFS is handling the southern stream energy well. 500mb are drastically changing run to run. EURO has not wavered much at all. Yup, I agree. I stayed up to look at the GEFS for the 16th-17th threat, and they certainly didn't take away the chances. GEFS is still running, so these maps are only through Wednesday afternoon to cover the first threat. The operational run did have the next snowstorm threat around the 20th and I'll check the rest and EPS when I wake up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Hopefully the trend will be good today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 Here was the 00Z Euro. A nice stripe of snow for most about Williamsburg north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 On the brink of a decent storm but a slight movement either way could make a big difference…I’m still waiting to see the outputs after tomorrow storm passes.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, eaglesin2011 said: On the brink of a decent storm but a slight movement either way could make a big difference…I’m still waiting to see the outputs after tomorrow storm passes.. Definitely gonna be interesting. Hopefully, this doesn't slip away from us. The 6Z GFS was a step back but produced snow on the backside. Here is the 6Z GEFS, though. Most hits are centered around 1/16 to 1/17, which the below maps focus on. Looking at the charts, snow threats beyond early next week were weak, @ldub23. Today's 12Z could very well have a SE ridge at 384. I also added ECG for you, @Stormpc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 FWIW, the 6Z EPS only goes out to hour 144 so the event is not quite over. I do not see anything alarming. I think this indicates that 12Z EPS will probably be decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 12z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, wasnow215 said: 12z GFS 12Z GFS is still a snow event, particularly for the Richmond area, but as usual, the devil is in the details. GFS depicts some mid-level warm concerns for a portion of the storm. Although surface temps are around freezing when the precip starts, the 850 MB temp starts around +1°C at 15Z Tuesday and drops to 0°C by 18Z and -2°C by 21Z. It’s during this time the bulk of the precip is falling, and so that’s why things are complicated along, south and east of about US Hwy 360. So, its hard to say exactly how much this cuts down totals. But, I think RIC should see its first inch. Not as confident about Hampton Roads, although even the southside could see falling snow as the storm pulls away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Looks like central va will get a good snow. More snow!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 Interestingly, the GFS gets us very cold following the storm. GFS has widespread single digits and low teens inland, with RIC hitting 10°F Wednesday morning and only 24°F for a high. If it's true that RIC only reaches 24°F, it would be the coldest high temperature since 12/23/22. I went back to 2010, and below are the coldest high temperatures since then. Threshold Exceedance Summary Station: RICHMOND BYRD AP State: VA ID: 447201 Latitude: 37.51 degrees Longitude: -77.32 degrees Elevation: 166 feet Station period of record: 01/01/1897-01/10/2024 CLIMOD product: Thresholds Creation time: 01/11/2024 11:54 EST Element: Maximum Temperature Units: degree F Threshold: <=23.00 Years: 2010 - 2023 Season: November - March Column delimiter: tab Date Value 01/07/2014 22 01/22/2014 23 02/16/2015 22 02/19/2015 23 02/20/2015 21 01/06/2018 23 01/07/2018 23 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 In se va we will get the worst weather possible. Bitter cold and nothing to show for it. Good Ric will get snow. RIC may end up with a foot+ thru 16 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I will wait for the King to weigh in at 1 before I get the slightest of hopes up. I will take a few inches, minimum, and then have it hang around for a while, that would be nice. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 30 minutes ago, JB Fins said: I will wait for the King to weigh in at 1 before I get the slightest of hopes up. I will take a few inches, minimum, and then have it hang around for a while, that would be nice. Yup, not giving up hope since the Euro has been more consistent and colder for us! I added the total QPF and the Kuchera map to my above post. Unfortunately, I'll be away from my computer most of the afternoon and won't be active when the Euro runs. I'll try to peak at my phone at least when I can, but later this evening, I'll be fully available to comment for our region, which you won't see in the forum long-range thread. (aka the DC only ). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 9 minutes ago, JB Fins said: I will wait for the King to weigh in at 1 before I get the slightest of hopes up. I will take a few inches, minimum, and then have it hang around for a while, that would be nice. Oh I think it’ll hang around a while! “Vodka cold” through the weekend. Look at 7am Wed! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 AKQ is beginning to message about the threat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, wasnow215 said: Oh I think it’ll hang around a while! “Vodka cold” through the weekend. Look at 7am Wed! Is this realistic, or could it be overdoing it a bit? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I dunno, seems we never verify on the cold side like that, now if it showed 70's in January, I would say book it. My experience is that it always modifies, if it is forecasting single digits for RVA, it's probably more like mid to upper teens. Now, out there in Hokie Bird Land, you might be single digits for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, JB Fins said: I dunno, seems we never verify on the cold side like that, now if it showed 70's in January, I would say book it. My experience is that it always modifies, if it is forecasting single digits for RVA, it's probably more like mid to upper teens. The GFS is always super cold 6 days out and I can’t remember if it’s always that potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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