Conway7305 Posted Tuesday at 03:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:39 PM Good trends here for early 12z so far, maybe not drastic changes (minus NAM) but noticeable NW shift of precip field, at least for ICON. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Tuesday at 03:44 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 03:44 PM 2 hours ago, RIC Airport said: Latest maps from the Richmond stations, some downward adjustments from 8 and 12. Change # what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted Tuesday at 03:44 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:44 PM Dinardo’s updated map 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted Tuesday at 03:46 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:46 PM GFS out to 27... still early but looks like a SLIGHTLY healthier storm Update: out to 39 - tiny tick north and looks a bit more consolidated, wetter, otherwise very similar to 06z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted Tuesday at 03:46 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:46 PM Dinardo has upped his totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted Tuesday at 03:49 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:49 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Tuesday at 03:49 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:49 PM GFS does have a northerly component on precip field, good trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick_LeBoof Posted Tuesday at 03:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:52 PM 8 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Change # what? I don't think I've seen the RVA news meteorologists change predictions this often! And each station has a pretty different call. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted Tuesday at 03:54 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:54 PM Nice GFS run for all of us. More into richmond. More on the southern end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted Tuesday at 03:58 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:58 PM 4 minutes ago, Dick_LeBoof said: I don't think I've seen the RVA news meteorologists change predictions this often! And each station has a pretty different call. Agreed. I know 12 rides and dies with the Euro but sincerely hoping 8 is right and would rather change and provide accurate info. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted Tuesday at 04:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:03 PM 16 minutes ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said: Dinardo has upped his totals. I don't see how this will verify based on all the guidance currently available. Seems to me only the nam has totals near this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Tuesday at 04:04 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:04 PM It's close to lunch time And I think the NAM is already "out to lunch" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Tuesday at 04:05 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:05 PM 1 minute ago, Inudaw said: I don't see how this will verify based on all the guidance currently available. Seems to me only the nam has totals near this. 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted Tuesday at 04:11 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:11 PM 5 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: 100% These meteorologists have far more access to data than we can see. There’s a reason to his rhyme. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted Tuesday at 04:22 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:22 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted Tuesday at 04:22 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:22 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Tuesday at 04:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:28 PM 15 minutes ago, RVAman said: These meteorologists have far more access to data than we can see. There’s a reason to his rhyme. Totally understand and agree. But the point was the rest of those meteorologists have access also and the numbers from map to map are crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Tuesday at 04:29 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:29 PM 5 minutes ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said: DT really honking now on higher amounts. He says high probability for 10-12”across RVA and more SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted Tuesday at 04:31 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:31 PM 3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Totally understand and agree. But the point was the rest of those meteorologists have access also and the numbers from map to map are crazy. I think the rest of them will be following suit here shortly. DiNardo just happened to be the first to do it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted Tuesday at 04:32 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:32 PM 2 hours ago, derek015 said: Can we really put much weight into the NAM? I do after it nailed the last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted Tuesday at 04:32 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:32 PM 2 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: DT really honking now on higher amounts. He says high probability for 10-12”across RVA and more SE. based on the models he’s using to project this, he’s not wrong. are the models correct though is the real question. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Tuesday at 04:32 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:32 PM 4 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Totally understand and agree. But the point was the rest of those meteorologists have access also and the numbers from map to map are crazy. Also @Inudawis a red tagged also. That's who I responded "100%" to. Someone is going to bust bad! High or low lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Tuesday at 04:33 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:33 PM Just now, wasnow215 said: Also @Inudawis a red tagged also. That's who I responded "100%" to. Someone is going to bust bad! High or low lol Are you changing your numbers @RVAman? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick_LeBoof Posted Tuesday at 04:34 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:34 PM Regardless of how this storm shakes out this has been such a blast tracking. We've had it all. Models shifting south, models shifting back north, DT drama, local TV mets scrambling to adjust totals, heartbreak, and watching a meltdown in everyone's favorite mid-atlantic forum. 10/10 week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted Tuesday at 04:34 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:34 PM Just now, wasnow215 said: Are you changing your numbers @RVAman? I’d say as of right now 4-6 is a decent bet for metro. This could change rapidly if these models continue to trend Northwest with the bulk of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted Tuesday at 04:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:42 PM 7 minutes ago, Dick_LeBoof said: Regardless of how this storm shakes out this has been such a blast tracking. We've had it all. Models shifting south, models shifting back north, DT drama, local TV mets scrambling to adjust totals, heartbreak, and watching a meltdown in everyone's favorite mid-atlantic forum. 10/10 week. I wonder if DT browses this thread. Hey DT, if your map verifies I’ll give you a slide of cheesecake from the Cheesecake Factory. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted Tuesday at 04:47 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:47 PM 9 minutes ago, RVAman said: I’d say as of right now 4-6 is a decent bet for metro. This could change rapidly if these models continue to trend Northwest with the bulk of the precip. 3 to 6 is a good conservative guess right now if you kick out the Nam from the thought process. Most guidance is around 3.3 for the minimum to around 7 for the max from west to east across the metro. So if you want to cover for the higher potential.. THe absolute max I'd go would be 5 to 10.... With a more reasonable 4 to 8 for the metro area. Down toward Hampton roads its a whole different animal. They will get more precipitation total obviously, but it depends on how much and IF they mix with sleet or freezing rain down there. Their upside is higher.. but with the added risk of loosing totals to mix. 6 to 12 seems good down there.. 6 if you mix to much.. 12 if you stay snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted Tuesday at 04:47 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:47 PM We're benefitting from the shortwave gathering more juice as it rounds the base. Changes at short leads are more subtle but check out 6z vs 12z gfs in the deep south. Area between the gulf low and boundary qpf maxes is more robust. This is at 24 hour leads. I need it more than you guys but keep stuffin the h20 molecules please lol 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted Tuesday at 04:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:50 PM Going back to the Dec2018 storm, I specifically remember the NAM nailed that storm before all other models, and DT jumped on it early. So there’s that….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted Tuesday at 04:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:52 PM 3k nam likes RIC area for best lift during the WAA piece right as coastal enhancement starts taking over. That same area of lift helps me too and sends some crumbs back out here for a touch of coastal enhancement. Stronger/juicier wave leading in = broader coastal enhancement ETA: I'm not versed in RIC (or my own new climo lol) with the subtle stuff but one of my personal rules of thumb with WAA snow is the northernmost cohesive band of heavier precip usually has a localized maxima in real time that models don't do a great job at getting right even at very short leads. North of that line is diffuse flurries and subsidence. Sweet spot just south usually has great snow growth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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