RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 The back end of the squall line is entering the Hampton Roads area. Definitely reminded me of a summer downpour when it passed through here. Just wind and rain, no thunder or lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 18z EURO Ensembles look good again for 16-17 storm setup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 It looks like the storm total at Richmond will be 2.60", a new daily record. The CLI will be sent around 1:30am, but if that is correct, today will go down as the 2nd wettest January day on record. The below dates featured the previous top 3 wettest January days at RIC. Date Value 01/06/1962 3.31" 01/23/1935 2.51" 01/28/1952 2.07" Also, RIC had a wind gust to 59mph at the 9pm ob so the higher winds that the NAM showed yesterday looks to have verified, at least in spots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 21 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: 18z EURO Ensembles look good again for 16-17 storm setup It's too bad the 18Z EPS only goes out to hour 144, everything looks good at 500mb. Snow maps only had a little east of the mountains through 18z on the 15th, but of course, that's not quite within range yet. Hopefully, all that means is that the 00z runs will be even more favorable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 That line just cleared my neighborhood and it was a little shocking. Directly behind the monsoon wind driven rain was 90 seconds of exceptionally high winds probably gusting around 70 mph. Hadn't seen anything close to that since Dorian tore up the neighborhood a few years ago. Lots of banging against the house. We'll find out tomorrow what that was but that was pretty intense. We got spared the flooding rains. Just some on and off showers until the Squall line moved through. I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't get one inch total. Anyway that was fun. Looking forward to tracking the next few weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 32 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: It's too bad the 18Z EPS only goes out to hour 144, everything looks good at 500mb. Snow maps only had a little east of the mountains through 18z on the 15th, but of course, that's not quite within range yet. Hopefully, all that means is that the 00z runs will be even more favorable. If you have access to the median snowfall, can you post that too? It gives a better picture of the possibilities without the bigger members pushing the mean towards the max. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: It looks like the storm total at Richmond will be 2.60", a new daily record. The CLI will be sent around 1:30am, but if that is correct, today will go down as the 2nd wettest January day on record. The below dates featured the previous top 3 wettest January days at RIC. Date Value 01/06/1962 3.31" 01/23/1935 2.51" 01/28/1952 2.07" Also, RIC had a wind gust to 59mph at the 9pm ob so the higher winds that the NAM showed yesterday looks to have verified, at least in spots. This event is far from over the rain maybe but not the wind.. Pretty sure I just had the highest gust yet come through and knocked out my power for the first time for a few minutes… schools already calling off for tomorrow… Next week is starting to look interesting starting on Mlk day/night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, Stormpc said: That line just cleared my neighborhood and it was a little shocking. Directly behind the monsoon wind driven rain was 90 seconds of exceptionally high winds probably gusting around 70 mph. Hadn't seen anything close to that since Dorian tore up the neighborhood a few years ago. Lots of banging against the house. We'll find out tomorrow what that was but that was pretty intense. We got spared the flooding rains. Just some on and off showers until the Squall line moved through. I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't get one inch total. Anyway that was fun. Looking forward to tracking the next few weeks. Wow, that's impressive. I hope you find that you didn't undergo any structural damage. I probably hit 50-55mph a few hours ago, but I wasn't monitoring too much. I live in a newer neighborhood next to a large commercial area with few tall trees in my immediate area, so I only hear the higher gusts hit the house. Friday into Saturday's storm is looking like another doozy, too. 1 hour ago, Rhino16 said: If you have access to the median snowfall, can you post that too? It gives a better picture of the possibilities without the bigger members pushing the mean towards the max. I do not see that as an option on the sites I use. That may require a higher-paid subscription, I am not sure. Adding the median would be helpful for the reasons you stated. I assume that is why the charts are available. And while I will occasionally post the snowiest member or two, I hope everyone knows that’s only for fun as frequently there are just as many, if not more, complete shuts. It's always interesting to see the evolution of the snowiest ensemble and how the storms evolved. As I’ve pointed out a couple of times, some of them don’t make sense and are laughable, but I think overall they can be helpful as long as people don’t take them verbatim. 45 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: This event is far from over the rain maybe but not the wind.. Pretty sure I just had the highest gust yet come through and knocked out my power for the first time for a few minutes… schools already calling off for tomorrow… Next week is starting to look interesting starting on Mlk day/night Yeah, I actually noticed that, too! The highest gust at RIC came just as the rain was ending. I hope you don't lose power; I know a lot already did. Many schools are closing due to excess runoff from streams rising. Wakefield has issued a flood warning for most of the CWA until 7am due to rising water. Plus, we have had like 15" of rain in about 7 weeks, just crazy! Especially since many of us were coming out of a drought. The 00z GFS did not deliver for the 15-16th, hopefully, the next one around the 20th- 21st will gain further traction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 7 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Wow, that's impressive. I hope you find that you didn't undergo any structural damage. I probably hit 50-55mph a few hours ago, but I wasn't monitoring too much. I live in a newer neighborhood next to a large commercial area with few tall trees in my immediate area, so I only hear the higher gusts hit the house. Friday into Saturday's storm is looking like another doozy, too. I do not see that as an option on the sites I use. That may require a higher-paid subscription, I am not sure. Adding the median would be helpful for the reasons you stated. I assume that is why the charts are available. And while I will occasionally post the snowiest member or two, I hope everyone knows that’s only for fun as frequently there are just as many, if not more, complete shuts. It's always interesting to see the evolution of the snowiest ensemble and how the storms evolved. As I’ve pointed out a couple of times, some of them don’t make sense and are laughable, but I think overall they can be helpful as long as people don’t take them verbatim. Yeah, I actually noticed that, too! The highest gust at RIC came just as the rain was ending. I hope you don't lose power; I know a lot already did. Many schools are closing due to excess runoff from streams rising. Wakefield has issued a flood warning for most of the CWA until 7am due to rising water. Plus, we have had like 15" of rain in about 7 weeks, just crazy! Especially since many of us were coming out of a drought. The 00z GFS did not deliver for the 15-16th, hopefully, the next one around the 20th- 21st will gain traction. I agree It’s definitely the windiest of the day currently! As for the median, I don’t think they use the word median, but instead call it 50th percentile or something, if it helps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 7 hours ago, Rhino16 said: I agree It’s definitely the windiest of the day currently! As for the median, I don’t think they use the word median, but instead call it 50th percentile or something, if it helps. Thank you, I found it! I never went into that drop-down before. And yes, I can start posting those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 The 00z EPS wasn't as great as yesterday's 12Z, but it still signals the potential for accumulating snow for the 16-17th and increasingly for the 20th-22nd period. @Rhino16 pointed out that since some members can sway the mean, such as the one that gives Norfolk 20" of snow around the 21st-22nd, I included the 50th percentile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Not as many members on 0z but still a few big hitters. I’ll take that 20 inch member! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, Conway7305 said: Not as many members on 0z but still a few big hitters. I’ll take that 20 inch member! One can dream, right? e-33 gave Norfolk 20" and Richmond 14". Almost looks like the blizzard of 1980 at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 Still a close call on the 12Z GFS for early next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 The 12Z GEFS continues to signal the 16th threat. But, there are still a fair share of shutouts. We are still several days out and things can improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 After a few days of cold and dry its right back to rain and warm. We get far more tornado watches in Jan/feb than winter advisories now, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 Here is another slowed down version of the individual members starting at 00z 1/18 to 00z 1/22 that covers the period of interest for the 2nd threat. You can see there are snow hits, but also some rainy ones. I also added the snow maps that includes both threats. Plus, the 500mb picture also show a somewhat favorable look, with the western trough, continued blocking with that vortex over SE Canada which hopefully helps to support a colder look and track farther south, but maybe that is wishful thinking, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 11 minutes ago, ldub23 said: After a few days of cold and dry its right back to rain and warm. We get far more tornado watches in Jan/feb than winter advisories now, lol I know what you're trying to convey, this winter has been frustrating. We all feel that way. But as I've mentioned to you before posting the 384hour GFS to prove a point isn't helpful, because things change so drastically beyond 200 hours. It's better to look at the 500mb, particularly the ensembles, to identify trends in the large-scale pattern. Then you can determine whether the pattern will be favorable based on past outcomes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 The 12Z Euro was a major step in the right direction and puts down accumulating snows for most of the state. Although surface temperatures remain below freezing at RIC for the event, Euro has some mid-level warmth at 850mb that causes RIC area to mix for a time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Been looking at this timeframe for awhile now…guessing after Friday’s storm clears the models will come in more of an agreement… It dosnt look like anything major but looks like it will break the streak of no Accumulating snow in this area.. Hopefully we can get it come through overnight.. wouldn’t mind a little more south trend at this point too… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Looks like another chance the weekend of 1/20. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 EPS was great, too for early next week. This is only thru the 18th. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 11 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: EPS was great, too for early next week. This is only thru the 18th. Looks better! Hopefully at least something happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 46 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said: Looks like another chance the weekend of 1/20. Yup, looking that way as well. Plenty of time for improvements. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 16 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: Looks better! Hopefully at least something happens. The entire run was great! The charts and ensemble maps are still processing, but I'll post when they are done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Lots more big hitters here!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, Conway7305 said: Lots more big hitters here!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Anything over a week is just fantasy land to me .. (hell 3 days at most ( Really for me) lol The cold air still being there is what gets the ball rolling for any snow storm…At least that is looking better at the moment. let’s see how the Monday/Tuesday storm does before we jump past it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 18 GFS has several opportunities for inland areas and ends like this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now