RIC Airport Posted January 10, 2024 Author Share Posted January 10, 2024 The 12Z GEFS continues to signal the 16th threat. But, there are still a fair share of shutouts. We are still several days out and things can improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 After a few days of cold and dry its right back to rain and warm. We get far more tornado watches in Jan/feb than winter advisories now, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10, 2024 Author Share Posted January 10, 2024 Here is another slowed down version of the individual members starting at 00z 1/18 to 00z 1/22 that covers the period of interest for the 2nd threat. You can see there are snow hits, but also some rainy ones. I also added the snow maps that includes both threats. Plus, the 500mb picture also show a somewhat favorable look, with the western trough, continued blocking with that vortex over SE Canada which hopefully helps to support a colder look and track farther south, but maybe that is wishful thinking, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10, 2024 Author Share Posted January 10, 2024 11 minutes ago, ldub23 said: After a few days of cold and dry its right back to rain and warm. We get far more tornado watches in Jan/feb than winter advisories now, lol I know what you're trying to convey, this winter has been frustrating. We all feel that way. But as I've mentioned to you before posting the 384hour GFS to prove a point isn't helpful, because things change so drastically beyond 200 hours. It's better to look at the 500mb, particularly the ensembles, to identify trends in the large-scale pattern. Then you can determine whether the pattern will be favorable based on past outcomes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10, 2024 Author Share Posted January 10, 2024 The 12Z Euro was a major step in the right direction and puts down accumulating snows for most of the state. Although surface temperatures remain below freezing at RIC for the event, Euro has some mid-level warmth at 850mb that causes RIC area to mix for a time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Been looking at this timeframe for awhile now…guessing after Friday’s storm clears the models will come in more of an agreement… It dosnt look like anything major but looks like it will break the streak of no Accumulating snow in this area.. Hopefully we can get it come through overnight.. wouldn’t mind a little more south trend at this point too… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Looks like another chance the weekend of 1/20. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10, 2024 Author Share Posted January 10, 2024 EPS was great, too for early next week. This is only thru the 18th. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 11 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: EPS was great, too for early next week. This is only thru the 18th. Looks better! Hopefully at least something happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10, 2024 Author Share Posted January 10, 2024 46 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said: Looks like another chance the weekend of 1/20. Yup, looking that way as well. Plenty of time for improvements. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10, 2024 Author Share Posted January 10, 2024 16 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: Looks better! Hopefully at least something happens. The entire run was great! The charts and ensemble maps are still processing, but I'll post when they are done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Lots more big hitters here!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10, 2024 Author Share Posted January 10, 2024 1 minute ago, Conway7305 said: Lots more big hitters here!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Anything over a week is just fantasy land to me .. (hell 3 days at most ( Really for me) lol The cold air still being there is what gets the ball rolling for any snow storm…At least that is looking better at the moment. let’s see how the Monday/Tuesday storm does before we jump past it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 18 GFS has several opportunities for inland areas and ends like this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 The 14 years between the winters of 1947-1948 to 1961-1962 was the longest time without a 20+” snowfall winter. They were surprisingly common! This year will be the 14th year since the 2009-10 winter… Edit: this is incorrect as it only considers dec-feb, see RIC AIRPORT’s correct info below 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 20 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: The 14 years between the winters of 1947-1948 to 1961-1962 was the longest time without a 20+” snowfall winter. They were surprisingly common! This year will be the 14th year since the 2009-10 winter… Wow, didn’t realize it was that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 45 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: The 14 years between the winters of 1947-1948 to 1961-1962 was the longest time without a 20+” snowfall winter. They were surprisingly common! This year will be the 14th year since the 2009-10 winter… Love the reverse jinx possibility!! Let’s do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 18z Euro Ensembles. Let’s keep it going! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 11, 2024 Author Share Posted January 11, 2024 20 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: 18z Euro Ensembles. Let’s keep it going! Definitely an improvement from 12Z, too! Here are the 18Z GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 11, 2024 Author Share Posted January 11, 2024 2 hours ago, Rhino16 said: The 14 years between the winters of 1947-1948 to 1961-1962 was the longest time without a 20+” snowfall winter. I am unsure where that came from, but that is incorrect, assuming it is for Richmond. 1957-58 was a 20"+ season (20.2") and also 1959-60 (32.2"). It looks like the current stretch of 13 seasons from 2010-11 to 2022-23 ties the record longest with 1996-97 to 2008-09. Should we make it the rest of 2023-24 without reaching 20 inches, it would become a new record of 14 consecutive seasons without reaching 20". Although not specific to your post, I would also like to point out that the 30-year averages are tallied by calendar year. For example, the 1991-2020 30-year norms, means, and extremes, currently in use by NCEI, runs from 1/1/1991 to 12/31/2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 57 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: I am unsure where that came from, but that is incorrect, assuming it is for Richmond. 1957-58 was a 20"+ season (20.2") and also 1959-60 (32.2"). It looks like the current stretch of 13 seasons from 2010-11 to 2022-23 ties the record longest with 1996-97 to 2008-09. Should we make it the rest of 2023-24 without reaching 20 inches, it would become a new record of 14 consecutive seasons without reaching 20". Although not specific to your post, I would also like to point out that the 30-year averages are tallied by calendar year. For example, the 1991-2020 30-year norms, means, and extremes, currently in use by NCEI, runs from 1/1/1991 to 12/31/2020. Oops, I had that thing sorted by Winter (Dec-Feb), so anything that happened after that probably got omitted! My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 11, 2024 Author Share Posted January 11, 2024 17 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: Oops, I had that thing sorted by Winter (Dec-Feb), so anything that happened after that probably got omitted! My bad. Ah, no worries. I can see how that can happen. For the calendar year, 2018 was the last to reach 20" thanks to the 12/9/2018 storm. But, there have not been many since about 1990, which seems to have been a turning point when looking at the period of record data back to 1897. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 11, 2024 Author Share Posted January 11, 2024 The 00z 3K NAM has Friday's rain arriving between 5pm and 6pm and moving offshore by 3am Saturday. Rainfall amounts look nothing like yesterday's storm, generally under a half inch, with the most in the northern and western areas. Totals across far SE VA and NE NC were the driest this run, which is on par with the NBM model. The 3K NAM still had high wind gusts exceeding 50mph in many areas. SPC added a marginal risk of severe across our part of the region, probably due to the strong winds. They might expand the risk area in tomorrow morning's update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 11, 2024 Author Share Posted January 11, 2024 00Z GFS keeps us in the game and seems closer to a decent event early next week. This is definitely not the end solution. I will not be staying up for the Euro. I will be looking at everything when I wake up. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 I don’t think the GFS is handling the southern stream energy well. 500mb are drastically changing run to run. EURO has not wavered much at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 11, 2024 Author Share Posted January 11, 2024 55 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: I don’t think the GFS is handling the southern stream energy well. 500mb are drastically changing run to run. EURO has not wavered much at all. Yup, I agree. I stayed up to look at the GEFS for the 16th-17th threat, and they certainly didn't take away the chances. GEFS is still running, so these maps are only through Wednesday afternoon to cover the first threat. The operational run did have the next snowstorm threat around the 20th and I'll check the rest and EPS when I wake up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Hopefully the trend will be good today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 11, 2024 Author Share Posted January 11, 2024 Here was the 00Z Euro. A nice stripe of snow for most about Williamsburg north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 11, 2024 Author Share Posted January 11, 2024 EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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