CavalierHoo Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Any shift east from 12z? It looks like southern amounts ticked up, again without sacrificing our snow. That would be great for our souther brothers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Just now, CavalierHoo said: Any shift east from 12z? It looks like southern amounts ticked up, again without sacrificing our snow. That would be great for our souther brothers. Yes, there was actually a shift east, 18z vs 12z below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Not my favorite sign for us here in RVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, Stormpc said: WOW!!! 20 VA BEACH. Crazy. It more than held for us southers... Got me in double digits now. Maybe they will consider hoisting blizzard warnings for the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EverythingisEverything Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Maybe they will consider hoisting blizzard warnings for the coast? Oh my word! Va Beach is not ready. What is the timeframe? My brother is leaving for Mrtyle Beach on Wednesday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CavalierHoo Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 yikes. yeh. Lost a couple inches on that run. That's gotta stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 If this east trend doesn’t stop RVA is in trouble. Like to see the ensemble members for the euro. What the heck is kicking it east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, EverythingisEverything said: Oh my word! Va Beach is not ready. What is the timeframe? My brother is leaving for Mrtyle Beach on Wednesday? Wednesday Snow, mainly after 10am. High near 32. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Wednesday Night Snow. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Thursday A chance of snow before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 34. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 30%. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Is this turning into an ORF storm and RIC ends up getting fringed? The VA snow anus seems to be opening. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 11 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: If this east trend doesn’t stop RVA is in trouble. Like to see the ensemble members for the euro. What the heck is kicking it east? 14 minutes ago, CavalierHoo said: yikes. yeh. Lost a couple inches on that run. That's gotta stop. EPS is east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, wasnow215 said: Icon was even better at 6z Yea was just comparing it to 12z. 18z eps not encourage for Richmond area. Congrats to Hampton roads and Norfolk area if the trend continues. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: EPS is east Interesting EURO trending towards GFS.My thoughts are that's where we end up. A general 7-10" in RVA with lollies of 12-14" especially with ratios being so high bc of frigid temps. Obviously looking like more SE. Still 60 hours away though from snow starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Does RIC really want to be in the bullseye this far out? No.... Seasonality storms usually always trend back north and west within 48 hours. Tell me a storm that hasnt recently? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Well, I think this century Hampton Roads gets more significant snowfalls than Richmond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 5 hours ago, RIC Airport said: If trends continue, you may not mix at all, maybe even be the jackpot. The snowfall distribution suggests this event wants to set up like the 1/7/2017 storm. Here is Wakefield's summary. https://www.weather.gov/akq/snow_Jan082017 They even issued a blizzard warning for southside Hampton Roads. Totals on the southside were lower than expected because of mixing. It was a cold storm, RIC was 20°F during the height of the event and recorded 7.1". Totals on the southside were down with 5.3" at ORF, but the peninsula had 10"+ in spots. The snow stuck around for a few days, and there was a record low set at RIC a couple of days later. Just finally had some time to look through some posts. @RIC Airport this might end up being a good comp for this storm. Cold powder n high ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 8 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said: Well, I think this century Hampton Roads gets more significant snowfalls than Richmond I know you said "this century", but Norfolk officially recorded 0 snow in 2023 and 2024, so we're due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Last official 12" snow storm for Richmond Virginia was 29 years ago. But nature does care about who is "due" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, DJnVa said: I know you said "this century", but Norfolk officially recorded 0 snow in 2023 and 2024, so we're due. Yeah the past couple of winters have been sad until we had the event in January 2025, which only really whet the appetite for me haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 DT just updated 2 hours ago: Thought this was interesting at the end: "Finally -- remember the seasonal Trend and this is important. So far this winter once we have moved within 48 Hours of an event the short range models on almost every storm has shifted precipitation shield and the heaviest snow further to the north and west. IF this trend were to continue it would mean that the heaviest snow areas would be pushed back towards Richmond and With more significant snow closer to Charlottesville Fredericksburg and into DC Southern metro area." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 24 minutes ago, DJnVa said: I know you said "this century", but Norfolk officially recorded 0 snow in 2023 and 2024, so we're due. It's been basically nothing here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 29 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: DT just updated 2 hours ago: Thought this was interesting at the end: "Finally -- remember the seasonal Trend and this is important. So far this winter once we have moved within 48 Hours of an event the short range models on almost every storm has shifted precipitation shield and the heaviest snow further to the north and west. IF this trend were to continue it would mean that the heaviest snow areas would be pushed back towards Richmond and With more significant snow closer to Charlottesville Fredericksburg and into DC Southern metro area." Interesting, Hope he is right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 4 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Interesting, Hope he is right Is it true tho? Has they're been a NW trend inside of 48 hours for different events? I haven't paid that close attention and also don't recall. He did also caution that just bc not seeing totals we saw from Euro yesterday anymore today, not to think it won't snow now. True for DC, but not for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 It doesn’t mean the LP will trend NW, what he means is normally the qpf shield expands so more moisture is typically seen on the short range models as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, Rsheely88 said: It doesn’t mean the LP will trend NW, what he means is normally the qpf shield expands so more moisture is typically seen on the short range models as we get closer . You're right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 He doesn't insinuate that but that can happen too.Well he does say shift precip “shield” but someone asked does it normally shift within 48 hrs. Sometimes maybe but normally the precip expands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Either way i think Elizabeth city to RIC is in a nice spot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, Rsheely88 said: Well he does say shift precip “shield” but someone asked does it normally shift within 48 hrs. Sometimes maybe but normally the precip expands . I know I had to re-read and deleted the post. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 21z SREFs This is 10:1, no kuchera on wxbell. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 21z SREFs This is 10:1, no kuchera on wxbell. Normally NAM will follow SREF. So will be interesting to see the 0z . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: 21z SREFs This is 10:1, no kuchera on wxbell. This is how I think we end up but 15:1 at times especially after dark Wednesday. (My birthday haha) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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