ldub23 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Latest discussion below from AKQ is worth a read. Also, they say near blizzard conditions can't be ruled out near the coast. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Potential continues to increase for a significant winter storm to impact the region Wednesday into Thursday. Cold weather remains persistent through the middle of the week as another Arctic high moves out of Canada and into the north-central Plains. The high pressure will build south and east. As this occurs a low will develop across the Gulf Coast and lifts northeast off the Atlantic coast. The latest 12z/16 operational models and their respective model ensembles (GFS/ECMWF/Canadian) continue to show the potential for an significant winter storm across the majority of the CWA Wednesday into early Thursday. A southern stream shortwave is expected to move across the southern United States, with a low pressure system starting to develop along the southeastern coast and then lifting north-northeast. The 12z operational models show a better agreement on the placement of the low. However, they still continue to vary on totals as well as the their ensembles. The EURO and Canadian look to have slightly better agreement with potential totals than the GEFS. The GEFS continues to show low values as it continues to hint on a warm nose at 850mb creeping its way slightly further north than the Canadian and Euro ensembles. The probailities of snowfall has risen slightly across all ensembles. The 12z Euro and Canadian ensemble shows swaths of 90 to 100% probs of >=3" of snow with 60 to 80% probs for >=6" of snow. There has even been an increase in the chances for >=12" probs with much of the area now in the 20 to 30% contour with the Canadian and Euro. The GEFS continues to show somewhat lower probabilities but the 50th percentile still shows a wide footprint of 4-6" across the region. The overall 12z guidance continues to slightly trend cooler with this potential system. This colder weather will have implications for the placement of mixed precip corridors with this system. Have slightly increased freezing rain potential across the far SE as the ensemble guidance does show the potential warm nose creeping its way into the area. Will also note, the low is expected to deepen as it approaches the coast late Wednesday into early Thursday. As this low deepens the pressure gradient is expected to tighten especially along the far SE coast bringing gusty winds. Confidence is low at the time however, the possibility of nearing blizzard like conditions especially along the SE coastal areas cannot be ruled out. This event has a high ceiling for snow totals with QPF well over an inch across the region. However, any mixed precip will reduce totals significantly. Specifics should become more clear over the next 24- 48 hours so continue to follow the forecast over the coming days. Cold and dry conditions move in behind the system as high pressure builds into the region. Temperatures Thursday into the weekend will depend heavily on how much snow accumulates and where. We will see if the other models at 18z shift north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 7 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Latest discussion below from AKQ is worth a read. Also, they say near blizzard conditions can't be ruled out near the coast. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Potential continues to increase for a significant winter storm to impact the region Wednesday into Thursday. Cold weather remains persistent through the middle of the week as another Arctic high moves out of Canada and into the north-central Plains. The high pressure will build south and east. As this occurs a low will develop across the Gulf Coast and lifts northeast off the Atlantic coast. The latest 12z/16 operational models and their respective model ensembles (GFS/ECMWF/Canadian) continue to show the potential for an significant winter storm across the majority of the CWA Wednesday into early Thursday. A southern stream shortwave is expected to move across the southern United States, with a low pressure system starting to develop along the southeastern coast and then lifting north-northeast. The 12z operational models show a better agreement on the placement of the low. However, they still continue to vary on totals as well as the their ensembles. The EURO and Canadian look to have slightly better agreement with potential totals than the GEFS. The GEFS continues to show low values as it continues to hint on a warm nose at 850mb creeping its way slightly further north than the Canadian and Euro ensembles. The probailities of snowfall has risen slightly across all ensembles. The 12z Euro and Canadian ensemble shows swaths of 90 to 100% probs of >=3" of snow with 60 to 80% probs for >=6" of snow. There has even been an increase in the chances for >=12" probs with much of the area now in the 20 to 30% contour with the Canadian and Euro. The GEFS continues to show somewhat lower probabilities but the 50th percentile still shows a wide footprint of 4-6" across the region. The overall 12z guidance continues to slightly trend cooler with this potential system. This colder weather will have implications for the placement of mixed precip corridors with this system. Have slightly increased freezing rain potential across the far SE as the ensemble guidance does show the potential warm nose creeping its way into the area. Will also note, the low is expected to deepen as it approaches the coast late Wednesday into early Thursday. As this low deepens the pressure gradient is expected to tighten especially along the far SE coast bringing gusty winds. Confidence is low at the time however, the possibility of nearing blizzard like conditions especially along the SE coastal areas cannot be ruled out. This event has a high ceiling for snow totals with QPF well over an inch across the region. However, any mixed precip will reduce totals significantly. Specifics should become more clear over the next 24- 48 hours so continue to follow the forecast over the coming days. Cold and dry conditions move in behind the system as high pressure builds into the region. Temperatures Thursday into the weekend will depend heavily on how much snow accumulates and where. "....High ceiling for snow totals..." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Jim Duncan guessed 4-8 inches for Richmond 1 hour ago. NBC12 said 6-12 on their blog. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Icon was sizeable improvement for this area... RGEM was south and east again... nam way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said: Jim Duncan guessed 4-8 inches for Richmond 1 hour ago. NBC12 said 6-12 on their blog. That seems reasonable based on what I see. I mentioned earlier that if I had to make a forecast, I would predict 6 to 10 inches for the Richmond metro area. However, I agree there is a possibility of even higher amounts. I am hesitant to forecast more than 10 inches for Richmond, as it always seems like something unexpected happens at the last minute—such as mixing or dry slots—that complicates things. Specifically regarding the airport, we are due for a significant event; it has been far too long. For a storm to be considered a top 10 event, it would need to exceed 12.7 inches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I think I can agree with Jim Duncan on this one as it stands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, Inudaw said: Icon was sizeable improvement for this area... RGEM was south and east again... nam way north. The Kuchera is not available on Wxbell for the ICON, so the totals in many, if not all, areas would be higher than indicated below. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 18 minutes ago, RVAman said: I think I can agree with Jim Duncan on this one as it stands. I don't see anything wrong with 4-8", but of course, it's subject to change. We've been through this enough times to stay conservative and increase it as data and conditions warrant. If you're gonna bust at all, it's better to bust high than to bust low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I went with 6-10 with 12+ in areas for my area. I hope I didnt jinx myself with what the Nam just spit out ughhhhh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Honestly, if you under forecast people are just upset with you because they aren't properly prepared. If you over forecast people are just upset out of disappointment. Seems like slightly over forecasting would be better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: I went with 6-10 with 12+ in areas for my area. I hope I didnt jinx myself with what the Nam just spit out ughhhhh The NAM has me worried because it was exactly right last time. Imma look at other models for my medicine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said: Honestly, if you under forecast people are just upset with you because they aren't properly prepared. If you over forecast people are just upset out of disappointment. Seems like slightly over forecasting would be better. Actually, you're right. That's what I meant. I just wrote it backwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 18z GFS still a good hit for the region. Nothing like the NAM. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CavalierHoo Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Even better it up'ed our totals a tad and had only a slight shift south it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 That's a pretty good step to the south and east with snow south of the Va peninsulas. Definitely a step toward the other globals. Might be the most realistic in my opinion. And for us on the south side and Northeast North Carolina it's a good and welcome sight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 51 minutes ago, Inudaw said: Icon was sizeable improvement for this area... RGEM was south and east again... nam way north. Icon was even better at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, jlewis1111 said: Out to lunch or not? https://x.com/webberweather/status/1891230324723495192 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 18z GFS still a good hit for the region. Nothing like the NAM. Where can I sign on the dotted line? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 We've all seen the NAM make a 200 MI correction in either direction within the span of 6 hours. Especially outside of 60. It's generally worthless until tomorrow night in my opinion However, the reason why we still look at it is because sometimes, in the rare occasion, the outlying solution becomes reality. We only remember it when it does so it skews the perception of it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CavalierHoo Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Looks like the GEFS are gonna be an improvement as well. Expanded precip field to the south without sacrificing any in the RVA area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, CavalierHoo said: Looks like the GEFS are gonna be an improvement as well. Expanded precip field to the south without sacrificing any in the RVA area. Most places gained at least 2" on the mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 50 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said: The NAM has me worried because it was exactly right last time. Imma look at other models for my medicine. Not this far out it wasn't 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CavalierHoo Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Most places gained at least 2" on the mean. Very true. There should be some nice members in that group. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 No more East shifts. I hope the 0z euro looks just like it did last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 18z Euro just started running but I can’t see it. Have to be a plus member. Hope it’s good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 NBC 12's first map. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Good looking map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 18z RGEM is a Hampton Roads / Northeast North Carolina nuke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: 18z Euro just started running but I can’t see it. Have to be a plus member. Hope it’s good Still on track. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 WOW!!! 20 VA BEACH. Crazy. It more than held for us southers... Got me in double digits now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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