Rsheely88 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 RGEM crush job for SE Va. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Since we are not just winter here, that was quite an impressive frontal passage. Faster than I expected but I had a gust close to 50mph in Tuckahoe. Did hear a transformer go, which is Tuckahoe MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Icon a monster!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The NAM can often be the first to introduce mix lines where there were previously none. In this specific case it's probably over done. There's an unusual amount of wiggle room in the column but this far south there can never really be enough. However, the nam wreck the column because it drives an 850 low to nearly Pittsburgh lol. Mid levels are a warm air vacuum. Can it break this way? Yes, within the envelope imo. But the nam is a mesoscale model and the storm hasn't even organized yet. So the 84 hour panel is a complete digital evolution. NAM loves to go a little haywire beyond d2 in these situations. If the shortwave was over the MS river and getting organized, I'd be pretty concerned rn but we're not there yet and imho, it's pretty unlikely the NAM is "on to something" yet 100% Wheelhouse is 2 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 feel like the nam has exaggerated northward push with both precip and ptype corridors all year. from the early january storm that took out water to the storm this past week, multiple runs had no snow over richmond city whatsoever. not really concerned 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 GFS looks about the same perhaps slightly Southeast but negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Just now, Stormpc said: GFS looks about the same perhaps slightly Southeast but negligible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 9 minutes ago, JB Fins said: Yes, thanks Bob Chill! So glad you pop in from time to time now that you are a Virginian! Hope things by the lake are well! I will 100% be posting here more often. I should've all year but old habits die hard lol. I should post in the SE sub too. The main MA sub isn't working for me like it used to. It's not enjoyable like it used to be. Too much underlying tension. You can literally feel it. I love living in swva. Smartest thing I've done in many years. People are so reasonable, helpful, and genuinely nice. Most people I interact with have broad skill sets too. If you took 3 random people out of rural areas around here and put them together, they could build a house from the ground up while building a hotrod in the driveway at the same time. Its awesome. I feel completely at home and in my element. I never really felt that ever in the 22 years in rockville lol 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 13 minutes ago, JB Fins said: Since we are not just winter here, that was quite an impressive frontal passage. Faster than I expected but I had a gust close to 50mph in Tuckahoe. Did hear a transformer go, which is Tuckahoe MO. That was impressive and Ric gusted to 61. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I will 100% be posting here more often. I should've all year but old habits die hard lol. I should post in the SE sub too. The main MA sub isn't working for me like it used to. It's not enjoyable like it used to be. Too much underlying tension. You can literally feel it. I love living in swva. Smartest thing I've done in many years. People are so reasonable, helpful, and genuinely nice. Most people I interact with have broad skill sets too. If you took 3 random people out of rural areas around here and put them together, they could build a house from the ground up while building a hotrod in the driveway at the same time. Its awesome. I feel completely at home and in my element. I never really felt that ever in the 22 years in rockville lol did you ever think of like Vermont or NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 So if you're in Chesapeake or Virginia beach, most models have between 6 and 14 inches but the GFS has zero. Either GFS has control of this situation or is way out to lunch. Time will tell. Anytime you've got locales so close to the coast, any minor agitation upstairs can cause chaos 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 So if you're in Chesapeake or Virginia beach, most models have between 6 and 14 inches but the GFS has zero. Either GFS has control of this situation or is way out to lunch. Time will tell. Anytime you've got locales so close to the coast, any minor agitation upstairs can cause chaosDefinitely hope GFS is out to lunch for us on the Southside 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EverythingisEverything Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 44 minutes ago, Stormpc said: So if you're in Chesapeake or Virginia beach, most models have between 6 and 14 inches but the GFS has zero. Either GFS has control of this situation or is way out to lunch. Time will tell. Anytime you've got locales so close to the coast, any minor agitation upstairs can cause chaos This is why I am tempering expectations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PortsmouthWeather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I think the GPS is having an issue on the southern edge of the snow in HR. If you look at totals between snow, sleet, and freezing rain it is really low. But the qpf is well over an inch and the temps don't get above 30 to 31 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 44 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said: did you ever think of like Vermont or NH? 100%. Maine too. Thing is, we love snowstorms but being true to ourselves, Iwe don't love long cold dark winters. All my hobbies are outdoors. The work I prefer to do is outdoors. I like to sit on the screened porch every possible aft/eve. The NE is stoopid beautiful in winter but man there are some major tradeoffs. Ones we couldn't stomach. The final deciding factor for us was cost of living. It's shocking how much less it costs to live here top to bottom. Cashing out the rockville house and downsizing expenses/lifestyle allows us to live richly and debt free. We could easily survive on just social security. I did well enough working in MD but we were NEVER free financially. It's nearly impossible even with "big income" whatever that means lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 What’s everyone’s first guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, RVAman said: What’s everyone’s first guess? I’m hugging the Euro until 48 hours then look at the NAM and HRRR. My guess is 7 inches for RVA. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PortsmouthWeather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 15 minutes ago, PortsmouthWeather said: I think the GPS is having an issue on the southern edge of the snow in HR. If you look at totals between snow, sleet, and freezing rain it is really low. But the qpf is well over an inch and the temps don't get above 30 to 31 degrees Actually, the issue may be the algorithm they are using on Pivotal Weather that's causing the discrepancy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Actually, the issue may be the algorithm they are using on Pivotal Weather that's causing the discrepancy I haven't done deep dive into the low levels but I bet the GFS soundings have a warm nose somewhere between 850-925 mb for our area. That'd be enough to knock totals down a good bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 17 minutes ago, RVAman said: What’s everyone’s first guess? 6-10" for RVA Metro 4-8" Peninsula/Interior SE VA 3-6" Southside 14 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: I’m hugging the Euro until 48 hours then look at the NAM and HRRR. My guess is 7 inches for RVA. Although the Euro has fluctuated with this one, I'm also hugging it because I feel it's been the most consistent, even with other storms this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 2 hours ago, Lowershoresadness said: hows the mood today boys Hopeful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, RIC Airport said: Hopeful Hopeful / yet very skeptical for obvious reasons. RIC saying 6-10 is big deal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, RVAman said: Hopeful / yet very skeptical for obvious reasons. RIC saying 6-10 is big deal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 21 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: I’m hugging the Euro until 48 hours then look at the NAM and HRRR. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, RIC Airport said: Stay right there! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Might have to increase my totals for Hampton Roads, lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 start and end times in ric with current euro run? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 10 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: start and end times in ric with current euro run? Still looking at a mid/late Wednesday morning arrival. Ending about the same time Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 @jlewis1111Somehow the snow maps are finished through hour 360, but for everything else, the Euro on wxbell seems to be stuck around hour 51, so I can't see all the panels. Might have to go on other sites to see whether there is any mixing in Hampton Roads or how close it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Still looking at a mid/late Wednesday morning arrival. Ending about the same time Thursday. ok need to put out my forecast so will go around noon wed to late morning thur 5-10 with higher amounts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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