RIC Airport Posted January 9, 2024 Author Share Posted January 9, 2024 7 hours ago, RIC Airport said: The 12Z GEFS still showed a signal for a decent event around the 16th to 17th. Curious to see what the Euro and EPS does. I know we are tired of looking at these maps with no result. But, FYI, there was a slight uptick with the 18z GEFS snowfall mean compared to the 12Z run. The 16th-17th and then around the 20th is where you see the upticks when looking at the individual members. We are ways out, so much can still change. Keep the faith. Winter is far from over. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 6z GFS promising for midweek next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 9, 2024 Author Share Posted January 9, 2024 36 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: 6z GFS promising for midweek next week. Last night's EPS also werent bad, certainly an improvement from yesterday's 12Z EPS. A handful of decent hits. I would not rely on a single scenario right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 9, 2024 Author Share Posted January 9, 2024 37 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: 6z GFS promising for midweek next week. Unfortunately, todays 6z GEFS were not as great as the previous 4 runs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 16 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Last night's EPS also werent bad, certainly an improvement from yesterday's 12Z EPS. A handful of decent hits. I would not rely on a single scenario right now. Thank you! For sure not counting on, just saying it was encouraging. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 A lot harder to get snow down my way so I don't even bother looking that far until I see a cold pattern established in the east. Richmond and West can LUCK into certain events but not for us down in the Tidewater or outer banks. We need a hefty Continental snow pack and established cold with Southern stream riding underneath us to hope to grasp anything. Let's see how the deck is shuffled after these two cutter bombs clear. Anyway it might be an active day. Be safe out there. Check in later if anything interesting is happening. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 More cold overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 9, 2024 Author Share Posted January 9, 2024 3 hours ago, Stormpc said: A lot harder to get snow down my way so I don't even bother looking that far until I see a cold pattern established in the east. Richmond and West can LUCK into certain events but not for us down in the Tidewater or outer banks. We need a hefty Continental snow pack and established cold with Southern stream riding underneath us to hope to grasp anything. Let's see how the deck is shuffled after these two cutter bombs clear. Anyway it might be an active day. Be safe out there. Check in later if anything interesting is happening. I agree with this, and hopefully we all, including NE NC, can cash in soon. 12Z GFS, at least verbatim, liked SE VA and NE NC. Steadier rains off and on into the Richmond area, but nothing too crazy yet. Certainly the higher winds have yet to arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 9, 2024 Author Share Posted January 9, 2024 2 hours ago, ldub23 said: More cold overall Our area is still in the game for snow, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 Wind is verifying. And the short term models swing a squall line through around 7pm. Could get ugly. Hopefully once this cutter swings through some snow threats show themselves next week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 That line looks very active as it approaches. Lots of activity over SW VA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 there are a lot more hits for our area on the 12z EURO Ensemble members. Trends are nice so far. Still have a ways to go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 9, 2024 Author Share Posted January 9, 2024 I was just looking at the EPS, some good hits and the mean is among the highest we've seen. Charts are still processing but I'll post everything within the hour. Definitely encouraging. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 9, 2024 Author Share Posted January 9, 2024 Here are the 12Z EPS snowfall outputs. Definitely a handful of big hits. E-11, 14, and 32 were the snowiest members for the January 16th-17th period, especially for Richmond. Sharing the individual member snow maps for your enjoyment! Lets hope the EPS improves and the GFS/GEFS get on board in the coming days. For our entire region, including all of SE VA and NE NC, E-22 and E-47 were the snowiest from what seems to be another threat around the 20th-21st. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 27 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Here are the 12Z EPS snowfall outputs. Definitely a handful of big hits. E-11, 14, and 32 were the snowiest members for the January 16th-17th period, especially for Richmond. Sharing the individual member snow maps for your enjoyment! Lets hope the EPS improves and the GFS/GEFS get on board in the coming days. For our entire region, including all of SE VA and NE NC, E-22 and E-47 were the snowiest from what seems to be another threat around the 20th-21st. Getting better 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 9, 2024 Author Share Posted January 9, 2024 Getting into the thick of it. Flash Flood Warning now. And there is a Tornado south of Petersburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10, 2024 Author Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 6:16 PM, mikeeng92 said: Power outages are starting to add up. KRIC is officially up to 1.53" of rain through 7pm and counting. The daily rainfall record was 1.41" set back in 1932. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Was a good storm, gusts over 50 with power flashes. And the roar of the wind was really something. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10, 2024 Author Share Posted January 10, 2024 3 hours ago, ldub23 said: Getting better The 18Z GEFS mean was a step back from 12Z, but it still has an accumulating snow signal for the 16-17th and around the 20-21st. Hopefully, the 12z's numbers are closer to reality. The 18Z operational run was unremarkable. 12Z GEFS MEAN 18Z GEFS MEAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Soon it will be February. Hard to believe we will have 1000+days without an inch of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10, 2024 Author Share Posted January 10, 2024 The back end of the squall line is entering the Hampton Roads area. Definitely reminded me of a summer downpour when it passed through here. Just wind and rain, no thunder or lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 18z EURO Ensembles look good again for 16-17 storm setup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10, 2024 Author Share Posted January 10, 2024 It looks like the storm total at Richmond will be 2.60", a new daily record. The CLI will be sent around 1:30am, but if that is correct, today will go down as the 2nd wettest January day on record. The below dates featured the previous top 3 wettest January days at RIC. Date Value 01/06/1962 3.31" 01/23/1935 2.51" 01/28/1952 2.07" Also, RIC had a wind gust to 59mph at the 9pm ob so the higher winds that the NAM showed yesterday looks to have verified, at least in spots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10, 2024 Author Share Posted January 10, 2024 21 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: 18z EURO Ensembles look good again for 16-17 storm setup It's too bad the 18Z EPS only goes out to hour 144, everything looks good at 500mb. Snow maps only had a little east of the mountains through 18z on the 15th, but of course, that's not quite within range yet. Hopefully, all that means is that the 00z runs will be even more favorable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 That line just cleared my neighborhood and it was a little shocking. Directly behind the monsoon wind driven rain was 90 seconds of exceptionally high winds probably gusting around 70 mph. Hadn't seen anything close to that since Dorian tore up the neighborhood a few years ago. Lots of banging against the house. We'll find out tomorrow what that was but that was pretty intense. We got spared the flooding rains. Just some on and off showers until the Squall line moved through. I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't get one inch total. Anyway that was fun. Looking forward to tracking the next few weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 32 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: It's too bad the 18Z EPS only goes out to hour 144, everything looks good at 500mb. Snow maps only had a little east of the mountains through 18z on the 15th, but of course, that's not quite within range yet. Hopefully, all that means is that the 00z runs will be even more favorable. If you have access to the median snowfall, can you post that too? It gives a better picture of the possibilities without the bigger members pushing the mean towards the max. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: It looks like the storm total at Richmond will be 2.60", a new daily record. The CLI will be sent around 1:30am, but if that is correct, today will go down as the 2nd wettest January day on record. The below dates featured the previous top 3 wettest January days at RIC. Date Value 01/06/1962 3.31" 01/23/1935 2.51" 01/28/1952 2.07" Also, RIC had a wind gust to 59mph at the 9pm ob so the higher winds that the NAM showed yesterday looks to have verified, at least in spots. This event is far from over the rain maybe but not the wind.. Pretty sure I just had the highest gust yet come through and knocked out my power for the first time for a few minutes… schools already calling off for tomorrow… Next week is starting to look interesting starting on Mlk day/night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10, 2024 Author Share Posted January 10, 2024 1 hour ago, Stormpc said: That line just cleared my neighborhood and it was a little shocking. Directly behind the monsoon wind driven rain was 90 seconds of exceptionally high winds probably gusting around 70 mph. Hadn't seen anything close to that since Dorian tore up the neighborhood a few years ago. Lots of banging against the house. We'll find out tomorrow what that was but that was pretty intense. We got spared the flooding rains. Just some on and off showers until the Squall line moved through. I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't get one inch total. Anyway that was fun. Looking forward to tracking the next few weeks. Wow, that's impressive. I hope you find that you didn't undergo any structural damage. I probably hit 50-55mph a few hours ago, but I wasn't monitoring too much. I live in a newer neighborhood next to a large commercial area with few tall trees in my immediate area, so I only hear the higher gusts hit the house. Friday into Saturday's storm is looking like another doozy, too. 1 hour ago, Rhino16 said: If you have access to the median snowfall, can you post that too? It gives a better picture of the possibilities without the bigger members pushing the mean towards the max. I do not see that as an option on the sites I use. That may require a higher-paid subscription, I am not sure. Adding the median would be helpful for the reasons you stated. I assume that is why the charts are available. And while I will occasionally post the snowiest member or two, I hope everyone knows that’s only for fun as frequently there are just as many, if not more, complete shuts. It's always interesting to see the evolution of the snowiest ensemble and how the storms evolved. As I’ve pointed out a couple of times, some of them don’t make sense and are laughable, but I think overall they can be helpful as long as people don’t take them verbatim. 45 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: This event is far from over the rain maybe but not the wind.. Pretty sure I just had the highest gust yet come through and knocked out my power for the first time for a few minutes… schools already calling off for tomorrow… Next week is starting to look interesting starting on Mlk day/night Yeah, I actually noticed that, too! The highest gust at RIC came just as the rain was ending. I hope you don't lose power; I know a lot already did. Many schools are closing due to excess runoff from streams rising. Wakefield has issued a flood warning for most of the CWA until 7am due to rising water. Plus, we have had like 15" of rain in about 7 weeks, just crazy! Especially since many of us were coming out of a drought. The 00z GFS did not deliver for the 15-16th, hopefully, the next one around the 20th- 21st will gain further traction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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