jlewis1111 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Once again great to see the euro vs the gfs runs. Gfs complete fucking garbage this winter... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Euro better this run!! https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1890827123415261670 He makes a good point on why the storm may be farther east. Hopefully it doesn't go too far east, the 18z Euro is just too perfect for our region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Well that looks pretty nice. Definitely a step further southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deep Creek Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 28 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 18z Euro is another big hit Sign me up for that! I mean it’s literally WSW criteria for every single county in VA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 26 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Euro better this run!! 21 minutes ago, ldub23 said: If that could be locked in. 17 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: Once again great to see the euro vs the gfs runs. Gfs complete fucking garbage this winter... 9 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Well that looks pretty nice. Definitely a step further southeast. 8 minutes ago, Deep Creek said: Sign me up for that! I mean it’s literally WSW criteria for every single county in VA. 18Z EPS very similar to the 12z EPS (2nd map below) with the axis of heaviest snows. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 How about the euro snowfall probability maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 23 minutes ago, RVAman said: How about the euro snowfall probability maps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 16 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 It will be rather stunning if you area, and i95 se in general gets the jackpot from this one yet again. Honestly I kind of hope for a forum wide shellacking, just to keep the peace 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 @RIC AirportCouldn't 2/83 be a comp for this poss storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 11 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: It will be rather stunning if you area, and i95 se in general gets the jackpot from this one yet again. Honestly I kind of hope for a forum wide shellacking, just to keep the peace I always remain cautious until about 36 hours out as so much can still go wrong. Will be interesting to see what the 00z suite does, hopefully we won't see it weaker, farther east. Hard to get much better than today's 18z Euro run, at least for our region. However, if the 18z Euro AI is to be believed, Hampton Roads is the real winner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 10 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: @RIC AirportCouldn't 2/83 be a comp for this poss storm? I did see 1983 as a 500mb height analog on a WPC chart yesterday. Not sure if this storm is exactly the same, the 1983 was a primary that formed in the gulf and came up the coast. (see animation below) RIC: 17.7" DCA: 16.6" ORF: 1.1" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 39 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: I always remain cautious until about 36 hours out as so much can still go wrong. Will be interesting to see what the 00z suite does, hopefully we won't see it weaker, farther east. Hard to get much better than today's 18z Euro run, at least for our region. However, if the 18z Euro AI is to be believed, Hampton Roads is the real winner. I would not apologize for my reaction haha 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 If this thing fails I quit this hobby lol. NBC12 is now confident in at least 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 53 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: I always remain cautious until about 36 hours out as so much can still go wrong. Will be interesting to see what the 00z suite does, hopefully we won't see it weaker, farther east. Hard to get much better than today's 18z Euro run, at least for our region. However, if the 18z Euro AI is to be believed, Hampton Roads is the real winner. Wow. This entire site would melt down if that happens. Hell, I'd be a little ticked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 ICON is going to be nice!!! Snow maps haven’t loaded yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Conway7305 said: ICON is going to be nice!!! Snow maps haven’t loaded yet I think I saw a map on the main thread 14" SP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: ICON is going to be nice!!! Snow maps haven’t loaded yet 2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: I think I saw a map on the main thread 14" SP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Btw, Kuchera isn’t available on Wxbell for the ICON. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Btw, Kuchera isn’t available on Wxbell for the ICON. Ratios would be higher given how cold the temps are with 1"+ QPF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Mon Dieu!.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 If I am not mistaken, every single model has the biggest snow in 6-7 years for Central VA. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: If I am not mistaken, every single model has the biggest snow in 6-7 years for Central VA. Outside of a few clown maps at 300+ hours, yes, this is the most legit since 2018 for most areas east of the blue ridge and south of Fredericksburg. There were a few large totals on some runs in January 2022, but that was short lived. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Hate being in the bullseye this far out though. I dont know how many times we have been here before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I will get serious about this monday at 12z til then its all hopium with how burnt we have been the last few years 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: If I am not mistaken, every single model has the biggest snow in 6-7 years for Central VA. Since that Dec 9 overachiever in 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 If this happens I’ll be posting a video of me eating a crow while belly flopping into 6+ inches of snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Not seeing huge changes on the GFS out to 84 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 11 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: Hate being in the bullseye this far out though. I dont know how many times we have been here before. 10 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: I will get serious about this monday at 12z til then its all hopium with how burnt we have been the last few years 4 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: Not seeing huge changes on the GFS out to 81 If I were forecasting for RIC, I think 6-10" is probably a good call now. I'd be cautious forecasting more than that because over the last 30 or so years, somewhere between 6-12" has always seemed to be the cutoff in storms with this set up, while just to the north and west of metro Richmond, we more often saw 12-18"+ totals. The models had massive totals leading up to the events below, but they still fell short of expectations because of either mixing or dry slotting. Richmond Airport totals in () January 2016 (11.4") February 2014 (5.8" February 2010 (6.6") December 2009 (7.4") February 2003 (1.9")--IP/ZR storm January 1996 (12.0") Since it's been so long, I would love to see a top 10 storm (12.7"+) at the airport. Hopefully, this event will finally deliver the big one for the airport to get something updated in the record books. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 GFS is still pretty progressive, dry, and fast. The jackpot of 6-10" is from Richmond to the southern Delmarva. Looks like it's slightly better than the last run for Hampton Roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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