Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[RIC Airport]

23 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

If you look at 18z @RIC Airport it doesn’t look like the same system as this one. This one is a couple days earlier. 

 

17 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Haha sorry-when you mentioned it staying south I was thinking of the 18z run. I think we’re gonna hit on one of these. 

It looks like a couple of different pieces of energy, and any of them could be the one that becomes the storm. I suspect GFS will probably hone in on different ones, so the timing will be different, especially this far out. That's ok as long as we maintain the active southern stream. We just need the correct one timed with cold.  Also, if the PV relax just enough so they don't go too far south. 

[Conway7305]

Encouraging Model Runs at 0zand 6z 

Our window may be Jan 15th 16th then again  22nd-23rd 

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, Conway7305 said:

Encouraging Model Runs at 0zand 6z 

Our window may be Jan 15th 16th then again  22nd-23rd 

12Z GFS was awful. So, hopefully it's just a fluke run.  

 

Last night's EPS was way more encouraging, and you can tell the 15th to 25th period has potential. So we'll see. 

 

[ldub23]

The se ridge wont go away

[RIC Airport]

35 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

The se ridge wont go away

12z EPS still has a signal in the LR after next weekend's cutter and once the PV lobe drops south and moves eastward. This would provide the cold and push the storm track farther south. Also, the EPS mean has ticked back up and some with quite a few hits on the ensembles, which is different from many previous runs. 

 

 

[Conway7305]

9 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

12z EPS still has a signal in the LR after next weekend's cutter.

 

 

Only a few big Hits for our area but signal is there in long range.  Hopefully that will change for the better.  Plenty of time. I expect some wild OP runs in the coming days.  

[wasnow215]

We are way better at being patient snow lovers/weather hobbyists than the LR is delivering snow haha.

[ldub23]

47 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

12z EPS still has a signal in the LR after next weekend's cutter and once the PV lobe drops south and moves eastward. This would provide the cold and push the storm track farther south. Also, the EPS mean has ticked back up and some with quite a few hits on the ensembles, which is different from many previous runs. 

 

 

[RIC Airport]

16 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

 

Yeah, the Euro op only goes out to 240. I mentioned after the cutter next weekend, which is around hour 168. It's beyond that when the PV drops and begins to move eastward and things get interesting. The EPS goes out to hour 360, which is what i posted. Nothing was a slam dunk, but still shows potential. 

[RIC Airport]

40 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

 

@ldub23, The first image starts at hour 168. You can see next Saturday's storm is lifting away from us and moving into the NE US, and yes we warm up ahead of it, possibly well into the 60s.

The 2nd is an animation that goes from hour 168 to hour 360. Watch the 850C lines and the waves of moisture that pass over us through the end of the run. Also, see my earlier EPS post and 500 MB gifs. Granted, it's an ensemble mean, but it shows an overrunning setup since we have the placement of the PV lobe over southern Canada, which ushers cold into the east with moisture coming in.

 

[RIC Airport]

Happy hour GFS returns our storm.

 

[wasnow215]

Let’s get it done!!

[Conway7305]

And another storm brewing at end of run

 

[RIC Airport]

00Z GFS, fwiw, had two separate storms. The first one is not as ideal as we'd like, but the storm was still there. There was another piece of energy a few days later, which I showed in the bottom map. 

 

 

 

 

 

[RIC Airport]

Here is the 12Z GFS

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

Here is the 12Z GFS

There is still some ensemble support for the 16th to 18th period, but certainly no slam dunks, @Conway7305.

 

 

 

 

[Rhino16]

30 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

12Z Euro has the storm, but it basically cuts to our west. But, we may be cold enough initially for some frozen especially north and west of RIC.

 

I think western storm track could be this winter’s top story.

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, Rhino16 said:

I think western storm track could be this winter’s top story.

Yeah, we've been wasting so much time tracking with no results, just cutter after cutter, which seems to always verify even when they show up on the models 10 days out. 

Meanwhile, the EPS did seem to favor a more of a southern solution for the 16th-17th wave that follows next weekend's cutter, but the snow mean wasn't that great. There was one member that did gave RIC 5" of snow from it. I don't think we are gonna really know how this pattern is going to shape until we get a little closer, there are still a lot of inconsistencies on the PV and where it drops into the CONUS. 

 

[RIC Airport]

Concerning Tuesday's storm, temperatures started in the mid-upper 30s that morning, and there could be some snow or ice for the far western and northern parts of the state. But, temperatures will rise into the 60s, possibly upper 60s in spots as the main storm tracks west of the state. It will be very windy for everyone ahead of it.  Wakefield has issued a High Wind Watch for the immediate coastal areas. 

The 3K NAM also brings a squall line through the area between about 7pm and 1am and another widespread 1-2" of rain. Yay! 

 

 

 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
249 PM EST Sun Jan 7 2024

NCZ017-102-VAZ095-098-525-080400-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.HW.A.0001.240109T1800Z-240110T0600Z/
Western Currituck-Eastern Currituck-Norfolk/Portsmouth-
Virginia Beach-Hampton/Poquoson-
Including the cities of Knotts Island, Corolla, Downtown Norfolk,
Ghent, Norfolk International Arpt, Norfolk NAS, Norview,
Ocean View, Wards Corner, Back Bay, Bayside, Cape Henry,
Dam Neck, Gallups Corner, Kempsville, London Bridge,
Buckroe Beach, Fort Monroe, Fox Hill, Grand View, Hallwood,
Hampton, and Langley AFB
249 PM EST Sun Jan 7 2024

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...South to southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to
  60 mph possible.

* WHERE...In North Carolina, Western Currituck and Eastern
  Currituck Counties. In Virginia, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Hampton,
  Poquoson, and Virginia Beach.

* WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

[RIC Airport]

@Rhino16, @Conway7305the 18Z GEFS was encouraging as it had several events, with the largest still appearing from the 16th to the 17th, while another shows up toward the 21st. The snowfall mean for the entire run was the highest I've seen in days, and the probability of getting 1 inch of snow, particularly for areas east of the mountains, is the highest I've seen all winter. 

 

Regarding the 16-17th storm, the 18z GFS operational run was rainy for our area, with RIC reaching the low 50s (60s ORF), but many of its ensembles painted a colder scenario. In fact, there were several members that gave RIC at least 6" of snow. You can watch the hits below and see the charts for Richmond and Norfolk showing the member totals for the entire run.

[Rhino16]

4 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

@Rhino16The 18Z GEFS was encouraging as it had several events, with the largest still appearing from the 16th to the 17th, while another shows up toward the 21st. The snowfall mean for the entire run was the highest I've seen in days, and the probability of getting 1 inch of snow, particularly for areas east of the mountains, is the highest I've seen all winter. 

 

Regarding the 16-17th storm, the 18z GFS operational run was rainy for our area, with RIC reaching the low 50s (60s ORF), but many of its ensembles painted a colder scenario. In fact, there were several members that gave RIC at least 6" of snow. You can watch the hits below and see the charts for Richmond and Norfolk showing the member totals for the entire run.

I’ll allow a little sliver of hope for myself. I don’t know if I trust the GEFS ensembles being colder, but hopefully it’s right!

[Conway7305]

25 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

@Rhino16, @Conway7305the 18Z GEFS was encouraging as it had several events, with the largest still appearing from the 16th to the 17th, while another shows up toward the 21st. The snowfall mean for the entire run was the highest I've seen in days, and the probability of getting 1 inch of snow, particularly for areas east of the mountains, is the highest I've seen all winter. 

 

Regarding the 16-17th storm, the 18z GFS operational run was rainy for our area, with RIC reaching the low 50s (60s ORF), but many of its ensembles painted a colder scenario. In fact, there were several members that gave RIC at least 6" of snow. You can watch the hits below and see the charts for Richmond and Norfolk showing the member totals for the entire run.

Some Big Hitters in there! 

[Conway7305]

18z ECMWF Ensembles are a big improvement with trough placement further east on 13th leading up to event on 17th. 

[RIC Airport]

49 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

18z ECMWF Ensembles are a big improvement with trough placement further east on 13th leading up to event on 17th. 

Hopefully, they are on to something and other runs follow suit. Still not losing hope on the ladder part of the month.

Meanwhile, the 00z 3K NAM still shows a good-looking squall line swinging through our region Tuesday between about 6pm and 1am. It'll be a windy day and probably can't rule out some thunder in spots as that line approaches.

 

[RIC Airport]

9 hours ago, Conway7305 said:

18z ECMWF Ensembles are a big improvement with trough placement further east on 13th leading up to event on 17th. 

00z Euro was a nice hit. It's too bad it was at the end of the run, and we know there will be fluctuations in the days ahead. Heck, 12Z could have it back west again. 

Verbatim, surface temperatures remain below freezing at Richmond for the entire event. Starts as +SN, but as you can see by hour 216, the model shows a mix as the 850mb temps begin to rise and probably get above 0C for a time from about Farmville to about Tappahannock, which are the typical areas that tend to mix in the height of the bigger storms. Afterwards, there is a return to snow on the back side of the storm including coastal areas. 

 

 

 

EPS overall wasn't that impressive, but there are a couple members with more southern solutions that crushed Norfolk. There were only 4 members that gave Richmond over 6" of snow. 

[wasnow215]

2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

00z Euro was a nice hit. It's too bad it was at the end of the run, and we know there will be fluctuations in the days ahead. Heck, 12Z could have it back west again. 

Verbatim, surface temperatures remain below freezing at Richmond for the entire event. Starts as +SN, but as you can see by hour 216, the model shows a mix as the 850mb temps begin to rise and probably get above 0C for a time from about Farmville to about Tappahannock, which are the typical areas that tend to mix in the height of the bigger storms. Afterwards, there is a return to snow on the back side of the storm including coastal areas. 

 

 

EPS overall wasn't that impressive, but there are a couple members with more southern solutions that crushed Norfolk. There were only 4 members that gave Richmond over 6" of snow. 

 

 

 

GFS now showing a lack of cold air now for that system. Do you think we still have a chance to get the needed cold air? What has to happen? Or maybe the better question is what should I be looking for? @RIC Airport

[RIC Airport]

24 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

GFS now showing a lack of cold air now for that system. Do you think we still have a chance to get the needed cold air? What has to happen? Or maybe the better question is what should I be looking for? @RIC Airport

I'm no pro, but I like the ridge out west and the -NAO block.

But, the cold delivery will depend on the placement of the polar vortex lobe that trails next weekend's cutter. We need that in the area where the Euro shows, even more south and east for an even colder outcome, as it could be a 50/50 feature to keep cold entrenched east of the mountains as the storm approaches. We don't want it too far south because it'll end up surpressing the storm south of us. There has been a lot of flexibility in the models on where each feature ends up, which is frustrating. 

 

More southern solutions are a possibility. Looking at the EPS charts I posted earlier, these two members gave Norfolk 15" and 10", respectively. You can see how far south these are and how NC even gets a lot of snow.

 

 

[Stormpc]

In the immediate we need to look out for possible spin-ups along that Squall line tomorrow evening. Not so sure about the winds even at the vulnerable Coastal locations but some widespread severe may be possible. Interested to see what happens down south later today. The once modeled widespread Heavy Rain event looks more like some showers during the day then a concentrated Squall line to finish it off. I don't think our locales will have any issues with Urban Street flooding. Severe is something to watch for sure. Great job @Ric Airport chasing down possible winter scenarios for the region. Always a nice read. Thank you for that.

[RIC Airport]

4 hours ago, Stormpc said:

In the immediate we need to look out for possible spin-ups along that Squall line tomorrow evening. Not so sure about the winds even at the vulnerable Coastal locations but some widespread severe may be possible. Interested to see what happens down south later today. The once modeled widespread Heavy Rain event looks more like some showers during the day then a concentrated Squall line to finish it off. I don't think our locales will have any issues with Urban Street flooding. Severe is something to watch for sure. Great job @Ric Airport chasing down possible winter scenarios for the region. Always a nice read. Thank you for that.

From what I can glean, the 12Z HRRR and 3K NAM had tomorrow’s rain arriving between 6 am and 8 am, with it being off and on and steady in spots from its onset. Wind gusts also increase to 20-30mph after sunrise but will start exceeding 40mph and approach 60mph, especially along the coast. As the squall line approaches, higher gusts could be embedded in storm cells. The squall line looks to enter our region between 5 pm and 1 am. 12Z HRRR had an earlier arrival, and NAM a bit later. The 3K NAM was aggressive with the winds showing widespread 60-75mph even for places west of Richmond. I'm unsure if winds that high will couple down to the surface though. HRRR wasn't as high as it had generally 40-50mph inland and 50-60mph along the immediate coastal areas. Nonetheless, it looks like tomorrow afternoon and evening will be windy.

With respect to severe, SPC has a marginal risk up to about RIC. Although the risk of tornadoes isn't 0% for east-central and SE VA, the highest risk for tornadoes looks to be interior Eastern NC along and east of I-95. That is where I am seeing the highest surface CAPE (> 500 J/kg) and SCI values on the NAM. Unfortunately, I am not versed on tracking severe so I will defer to others to bail me out.  I am more of a winter guy. 

 

[RIC Airport]

The 12Z GEFS still showed a signal for a decent event around the 16th to 17th. Curious to see what the Euro and EPS does.