RIC Airport Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 00Z GFS also had a snowstorm, but it was a few days earlier and was primarily a hit north and west of Richmond. The reason why that wave went north was because the PV lobe was weaker. You can see the energy enter the PAC NW and then get quashed SE on the heels of the PV, but since the PV lobe weakens and lifts farther north into Canada, it allows the energy to take a farther north track. Don't need to post the maps since we know it'll change. But at least it's consistently showing something again. I personally prefer they stay south of us at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Not a bad look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 13 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Not a bad look I edited my post see above and explained why it went north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: I edited my post see above and explained why it went north. If you look at 18z @RIC Airport it doesn’t look like the same system as this one. This one is a couple days earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 12 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: If you look at 18z @RIC Airport it doesn’t look like the same system as this one. This one is a couple days earlier. You're right, I mentioned that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: You're right, I mentioned that. Haha sorry-when you mentioned it staying south I was thinking of the 18z run. I think we’re gonna hit on one of these. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 23 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: If you look at 18z @RIC Airport it doesn’t look like the same system as this one. This one is a couple days earlier. 17 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Haha sorry-when you mentioned it staying south I was thinking of the 18z run. I think we’re gonna hit on one of these. It looks like a couple of different pieces of energy, and any of them could be the one that becomes the storm. I suspect GFS will probably hone in on different ones, so the timing will be different, especially this far out. That's ok as long as we maintain the active southern stream. We just need the correct one timed with cold. Also, if the PV relax just enough so they don't go too far south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Encouraging Model Runs at 0zand 6z Our window may be Jan 15th 16th then again 22nd-23rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, Conway7305 said: Encouraging Model Runs at 0zand 6z Our window may be Jan 15th 16th then again 22nd-23rd 12Z GFS was awful. So, hopefully it's just a fluke run. Last night's EPS was way more encouraging, and you can tell the 15th to 25th period has potential. So we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The se ridge wont go away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 35 minutes ago, ldub23 said: The se ridge wont go away 12z EPS still has a signal in the LR after next weekend's cutter and once the PV lobe drops south and moves eastward. This would provide the cold and push the storm track farther south. Also, the EPS mean has ticked back up and some with quite a few hits on the ensembles, which is different from many previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 9 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 12z EPS still has a signal in the LR after next weekend's cutter. Only a few big Hits for our area but signal is there in long range. Hopefully that will change for the better. Plenty of time. I expect some wild OP runs in the coming days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 We are way better at being patient snow lovers/weather hobbyists than the LR is delivering snow haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 47 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 12z EPS still has a signal in the LR after next weekend's cutter and once the PV lobe drops south and moves eastward. This would provide the cold and push the storm track farther south. Also, the EPS mean has ticked back up and some with quite a few hits on the ensembles, which is different from many previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 16 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Yeah, the Euro op only goes out to 240. I mentioned after the cutter next weekend, which is around hour 168. It's beyond that when the PV drops and begins to move eastward and things get interesting. The EPS goes out to hour 360, which is what i posted. Nothing was a slam dunk, but still shows potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 40 minutes ago, ldub23 said: @ldub23, The first image starts at hour 168. You can see next Saturday's storm is lifting away from us and moving into the NE US, and yes we warm up ahead of it, possibly well into the 60s. The 2nd is an animation that goes from hour 168 to hour 360. Watch the 850C lines and the waves of moisture that pass over us through the end of the run. Also, see my earlier EPS post and 500 MB gifs. Granted, it's an ensemble mean, but it shows an overrunning setup since we have the placement of the PV lobe over southern Canada, which ushers cold into the east with moisture coming in. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 Happy hour GFS returns our storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Let’s get it done!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 And another storm brewing at end of run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 00Z GFS, fwiw, had two separate storms. The first one is not as ideal as we'd like, but the storm was still there. There was another piece of energy a few days later, which I showed in the bottom map. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 Here is the 12Z GFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: Here is the 12Z GFS There is still some ensemble support for the 16th to 18th period, but certainly no slam dunks, @Conway7305. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 30 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 12Z Euro has the storm, but it basically cuts to our west. But, we may be cold enough initially for some frozen especially north and west of RIC. I think western storm track could be this winter’s top story. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, Rhino16 said: I think western storm track could be this winter’s top story. Yeah, we've been wasting so much time tracking with no results, just cutter after cutter, which seems to always verify even when they show up on the models 10 days out. Meanwhile, the EPS did seem to favor a more of a southern solution for the 16th-17th wave that follows next weekend's cutter, but the snow mean wasn't that great. There was one member that did gave RIC 5" of snow from it. I don't think we are gonna really know how this pattern is going to shape until we get a little closer, there are still a lot of inconsistencies on the PV and where it drops into the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 Concerning Tuesday's storm, temperatures started in the mid-upper 30s that morning, and there could be some snow or ice for the far western and northern parts of the state. But, temperatures will rise into the 60s, possibly upper 60s in spots as the main storm tracks west of the state. It will be very windy for everyone ahead of it. Wakefield has issued a High Wind Watch for the immediate coastal areas. The 3K NAM also brings a squall line through the area between about 7pm and 1am and another widespread 1-2" of rain. Yay! URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 249 PM EST Sun Jan 7 2024 NCZ017-102-VAZ095-098-525-080400- /O.NEW.KAKQ.HW.A.0001.240109T1800Z-240110T0600Z/ Western Currituck-Eastern Currituck-Norfolk/Portsmouth- Virginia Beach-Hampton/Poquoson- Including the cities of Knotts Island, Corolla, Downtown Norfolk, Ghent, Norfolk International Arpt, Norfolk NAS, Norview, Ocean View, Wards Corner, Back Bay, Bayside, Cape Henry, Dam Neck, Gallups Corner, Kempsville, London Bridge, Buckroe Beach, Fort Monroe, Fox Hill, Grand View, Hallwood, Hampton, and Langley AFB 249 PM EST Sun Jan 7 2024 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...South to southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph possible. * WHERE...In North Carolina, Western Currituck and Eastern Currituck Counties. In Virginia, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Hampton, Poquoson, and Virginia Beach. * WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe location prior to the onset of winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 @Rhino16, @Conway7305the 18Z GEFS was encouraging as it had several events, with the largest still appearing from the 16th to the 17th, while another shows up toward the 21st. The snowfall mean for the entire run was the highest I've seen in days, and the probability of getting 1 inch of snow, particularly for areas east of the mountains, is the highest I've seen all winter. Regarding the 16-17th storm, the 18z GFS operational run was rainy for our area, with RIC reaching the low 50s (60s ORF), but many of its ensembles painted a colder scenario. In fact, there were several members that gave RIC at least 6" of snow. You can watch the hits below and see the charts for Richmond and Norfolk showing the member totals for the entire run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 4 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: @Rhino16The 18Z GEFS was encouraging as it had several events, with the largest still appearing from the 16th to the 17th, while another shows up toward the 21st. The snowfall mean for the entire run was the highest I've seen in days, and the probability of getting 1 inch of snow, particularly for areas east of the mountains, is the highest I've seen all winter. Regarding the 16-17th storm, the 18z GFS operational run was rainy for our area, with RIC reaching the low 50s (60s ORF), but many of its ensembles painted a colder scenario. In fact, there were several members that gave RIC at least 6" of snow. You can watch the hits below and see the charts for Richmond and Norfolk showing the member totals for the entire run. I’ll allow a little sliver of hope for myself. I don’t know if I trust the GEFS ensembles being colder, but hopefully it’s right! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 25 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: @Rhino16, @Conway7305the 18Z GEFS was encouraging as it had several events, with the largest still appearing from the 16th to the 17th, while another shows up toward the 21st. The snowfall mean for the entire run was the highest I've seen in days, and the probability of getting 1 inch of snow, particularly for areas east of the mountains, is the highest I've seen all winter. Regarding the 16-17th storm, the 18z GFS operational run was rainy for our area, with RIC reaching the low 50s (60s ORF), but many of its ensembles painted a colder scenario. In fact, there were several members that gave RIC at least 6" of snow. You can watch the hits below and see the charts for Richmond and Norfolk showing the member totals for the entire run. Some Big Hitters in there! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 18z ECMWF Ensembles are a big improvement with trough placement further east on 13th leading up to event on 17th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 49 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: 18z ECMWF Ensembles are a big improvement with trough placement further east on 13th leading up to event on 17th. Hopefully, they are on to something and other runs follow suit. Still not losing hope on the ladder part of the month. Meanwhile, the 00z 3K NAM still shows a good-looking squall line swinging through our region Tuesday between about 6pm and 1am. It'll be a windy day and probably can't rule out some thunder in spots as that line approaches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now