Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[RVAman]

The GRAF isn’t great for anyone south of the river but it bodes well for short pump, tuckahoe areas. Obviously RIC is east so I do expect the airports total to be lower. 

[wasnow215]

3-5"-northern areas including ashland, short pump etc. can see up to 5 inches Richmond proper just to the south sees three

[Conway7305]

Bother GFS and Euro really honking today on Feb 20th period. Miller A 

[RVAman]

27 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

3-5"-northern areas including ashland, short pump etc. can see up to 5 inches Richmond proper just to the south sees three

I disagree here. I think Ashland will see a good amount of 7-9 inch measurements. Short Pump to about 64/Glenside will see likely 5. 

[wasnow215]

6 minutes ago, RVAman said:

I disagree here. I think Ashland will see a good amount of 7-9 inch measurements. Short Pump to about 64/Glenside will see likely 5. 

Look at you getting all aggressive lol

[wasnow215]

9 minutes ago, RVAman said:

I disagree here. I think Ashland will see a good amount of 7-9 inch measurements. Short Pump to about 64/Glenside will see likely 5. 

I'm talking about snow depth by the way. What can be measured with a ruler-not precipitation that falls as snow.

[wasnow215]

It's 33° here in Southwest Chesterfield 23120

Forecasted temperature is supposed to be 38° right now.

This is what I was talking about @RIC Airportthe other day about temperatures consistently being colder this winter season then forecasted.

Will it mean anything for tomorrow? We shall see.

[RVAman]

33 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Look at you getting all aggressive lol

Oh, I still think I'll get 1-2 inches. Ashland will definitely see upwards of 6-9 inches. IF temps hold, Short Pump will see 5-6". I live 3 miles from there. I'm still thinking we start later and switch over earlier than anticipated. 

[mikeeng92]

HRRR has a  much earlier start tomorrow , which I think is a huge plus for the snowier model runs. Radar returns look healthy and south to me with most of the action in Tennessee vs Kentucky, even some returns in N. Alabama. I’ve been pessimistic about this threat all week but I like where we’re at now especially with the banding potential. And cold seems to be winning as @wasnow215mentioned. 
 

RIC 3.7”

The Fan 4.3”

Midlothian 5.4”

Tuckahoe 6.4”

Short Pump 7.8”

Ashland 9”

Bumpass 12.8”
 

 

 

[RVAman]

If this verifies, (your predictions @mikeeng92). I'll personally venmo you for every inch I get here 3 miles east of Short Pump. 

 

Edit: Excuse me, I'm 5.2 miles East of Short Pump.

[mikeeng92]

1 minute ago, RVAman said:

If this verifies, (your predictions @mikeeng92). I'll personally venmo you for every inch I get here 3 miles east of Short Pump. 

Haha! This storm just feels different. GFS only shows a death band like that for some big storms. 

[RVAman]

1 minute ago, mikeeng92 said:

Haha! This storm just feels different. GFS only shows a death band like that for some big storms. 

That Tuckahoe call is quite hefty. I hope you're right. I'll give you a dollar for every inch of you get over 5". 

[Ephesians2]

9 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said:

HRRR has a  much earlier start tomorrow , which I think is a huge plus for the snowier model runs. Radar returns look healthy and south to me with most of the action in Tennessee vs Kentucky, even some returns in N. Alabama. I’ve been pessimistic about this threat all week but I like where we’re at now especially with the banding potential. And cold seems to be winning as @wasnow215mentioned. 
 

RIC 3.7”

The Fan 4.3”

Midlothian 5.4”

Tuckahoe 6.4”

Short Pump 7.8”

Ashland 9”

Bumpass 12.8”
 

 

 

How much for Lynchburg? 

[RVAman]

I'll play too.

 

KRIC 1.2

Ashland 5.8

Ruther Glen 6.3

Fredericksburg 6.7

Woodbridge 5.4

DCA 3.1

BWI 1.2

Norfolk 0

Newport News 0

[RVAman]

1 minute ago, Ephesians2 said:

How much for Lynchburg? 

1.7 

[Ephesians2]

1 minute ago, RVAman said:

1.7 

Honestly close to what I'm expecting.

This feels like a clone of the early Jan event. 

[RVAman]

Now that I watch the GRAF again, dry slotting could become a major issue as it usually does for us. Will it stay south of Chester is the real question. 

[RVAman]

While the HRRR is a tad north, it still provides higher rates for metro. 

[wasnow215]

1 minute ago, RIC Airport said:

0z 3K NAM

It's 28° here in Western Chesterfield County. Forecasted temperature right now supposed to be 35°. What can we make of that for tomorrow? Anything?

[RIC Airport]

00z 3K NAM

[RVAman]

Just now, wasnow215 said:

It's 28° here in Western Chesterfield County. Forecasted temperature right now supposed to be 35°. What can we make of that for tomorrow? Anything?

Can you verify that it is 28 out? It’s 35 in Henrico and my outdoor thermometer is saying 34.7

[RIC Airport]

4 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

It's 28° here in Western Chesterfield County. Forecasted temperature right now supposed to be 35°. What can we make of that for tomorrow? Anything?

RIC is at 34°F at 9pm. Most models had 29-30 for the low. The colder the better I'd say. But as clouds roll in, temps should stabilize or even rise a bit. 3K NAM was better for the front end, but still shows a transition to a mix. How soon that happens is key to accumulations. 

[RVAman]

22 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

It's 28° here in Western Chesterfield County. Forecasted temperature right now supposed to be 35°. What can we make of that for tomorrow? Anything?

I’m not saying you’re lying that’s just very low for what’s projected. 

[Conway7305]

I am just looking at the HRRR model from now on. 

[Conway7305]

16 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

RIC is at 34°F at 9pm. Most models had 29-30 for the low. The colder the better I'd say. But as clouds roll in, temps should stabilize or even rise a bit. 3K NAM was better for the front end, but still shows a transition to a mix. How soon that happens is key to accumulations. 

33 here near short pump

[wasnow215]

10 minutes ago, RVAman said:

I’m not saying you’re lying that’s just very low for what’s projected. 

And I'm not saying you should be in therapy if you're not. But you need to decide that lol. Take a look at Hampton Park, Virginia and look at the temperature on WeatherBug.

[RVAman]

3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

And I'm not saying you should be in therapy if you're not. But you need to decide that lol. Take a look at Hampton Park, Virginia and look at the temperature on WeatherBug.

What? All I was asking for was if you were seeing that on an app or on a physical thermometer. Not sure how therapy came into the conversation. 

[RVAman]

13 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

I am just looking at the HRRR model from now on. 

I’d say look at the GRAF too. It’s been nearly 100% spot on even with rain. NBC12 has the GRAF on their interactive radar. Just click “future” and it’ll show the next 8 hours of precip. 

[wasnow215]

I don't know you brought up lying about temperatures. Why would I make that up? Did you look at Hampton Park Virginia? And by the way I think most human beings should be in therapy.

[RVAman]

23 minutes ago, RVAman said:

I’m not saying you’re lying that’s just very low for what’s projected. 

I said I didn’t think you’re lying. I was just curious to see if it was actual temps or an app my guy. Holy.