RIC Airport Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 13 minutes ago, ldub23 said: This is a good look. Its dry but cold. Cant have winter storms without this. Yup, I was just looking at that. I'll take a look at the ensembles as they come in. But, the end of the GFS had highs in the low-mid 20s two days in a row. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 27 minutes ago, ldub23 said: This is a good look. Its dry but cold. Cant have winter storms without this. The PV drops out of Canada and into the plains and the cold eventually moves east. Hopefully there after there is moisture headed our way. Not giving up on the winter, @Conway7305 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 2 hours ago, ldub23 said: This is a good look. Its dry but cold. Cant have winter storms without this. The ensemble mean was in the low-mid 40s for that day. But, you can see a handful of members are torching us, which is probably skewing the mean too warm. Also, you can see on the last map that we are still warm in the east for that period, but it's clear that the warm departures are being erased by then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Received .32 of rain overnight. Had some sleet mixed in during heaviest. Got loud around the windows around 2am. Looks like a parade of rain events for the next 10 days for our area. Then maybe some winter cold after. All good. Can use a break from the rain though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I’m starting to get concerned that even in a Nino, we can’t seem to score winter weather systems. I’ve been wondering for awhile, if central Virginia and especially the Tidewater have passed some kind of threshold with regards to changing climate where it just doesn’t really snow anymore. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I would be lying if I said that had not crossed my mind every winter for that past 7. It really feels that way, and not just Central VA and Tidewater, but along the whole I-95 corridor. It only makes sense tracking ocean temps, it takes a lot off the table for us. I am just a weather geek, not my profession but it's really hard to ignore the reality that has been presented. I hope we can still get the occasional lucky thread the needle type scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 To cheer everyone up, today marks the sixth anniversary of the blizzard that struck E NC and VA, which was the second blizzard to hit Hampton Roads in less than a year. The storm, which was verified as a blizzard at ORF recorded 10.3” of snow. However, due to the storm's track, Richmond only recorded 3.0”. This event was the eleventh biggest snowstorm on record at ORF since snowfall records began in 1891. This period featured one of the coldest stretches we have experienced since the winter of 1995-96. On January 7, 2018, the temperature in RIC dropped to -3°F, the first time it had dropped below 0°F since the year 2000. Richmond remained below freezing for four consecutive days, but it would have been eight days in a row had it not been for hitting 34°F one day in the middle. It is worth noting that the most consecutive days below freezing at RIC was twelve days back in the winter of 1935-36. Here are some images I saved. Additionally, yesterday marked the anniversary of the January 3, 2002, snowstorm that affected our area. Richmond and Norfolk both experienced a decent snowstorm with 7.7 inches and 7.2 inches of snowfall, respectively. It is noteworthy that this storm occurred during an otherwise mild winter season throughout the east. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Right now its just not cold enough to have anything last for more then a few hours around here... We may get lucky over the weekend & get a quick dusting( only to have it washed away)but most likely it wont even turn over long enough to do even that ..... The 15th-20th looks to be at least cold enough air for something to happen... So we will see.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 29 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: To cheer everyone up, today marks the sixth anniversary of the blizzard that struck E NC and VA, which was the second blizzard to hit Hampton Roads in less than a year. The storm, which was verified as a blizzard at ORF recorded 10.3” of snow. However, due to the storm's track, Richmond only recorded 3.0”. This event was the eleventh biggest snowstorm on record at ORF since snowfall records began in 1891. This period featured one of the coldest stretches we have experienced since the winter of 1995-96. On January 7, 2018, the temperature in RIC dropped to -3°F, the first time it had dropped below 0°F since the year 2000. Richmond remained below freezing for four consecutive days, but it would have been eight days in a row had it not been for hitting 34°F one day in the middle. It is worth noting that the most consecutive days below freezing at RIC was twelve days back in the winter of 1935-36. Here are some images I saved. Additionally, yesterday marked the anniversary of the January 3, 2002, snowstorm that affected our area. Richmond and Norfolk both experienced a decent snowstorm with 7.7 inches and 7.2 inches of snowfall, respectively. It is noteworthy that this storm occurred during an otherwise mild winter season throughout the east. Thanks, if only that would happen again better than nothing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, SoCoWx said: I’m starting to get concerned that even in a Nino, we can’t seem to score winter weather systems. I’ve been wondering for awhile, if central Virginia and especially the Tidewater have passed some kind of threshold with regards to changing climate where it just doesn’t really snow anymore. 1 hour ago, JB Fins said: I would be lying if I said that had not crossed my mind every winter for that past 7. It really feels that way, and not just Central VA and Tidewater, but along the whole I-95 corridor. It only makes sense tracking ocean temps, it takes a lot off the table for us. I am just a weather geek, not my profession but it's really hard to ignore the reality that has been presented. I hope we can still get the occasional lucky thread the needle type scenario. 11 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: Right now its just not cold enough to have anything last for more then a few hours around here... We may get lucky over the weekend & get a quick dusting only to have it washed away but most likely it wont even turn over long enough to do even that ..... The 15th-20th looks to be at least cold enough air for something to happen... So we will see.... There no question, we used to be a legit snow town. Can you imagine some of these headlines today? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 3 hours ago, eaglesin2011 said: Right now its just not cold enough to have anything last for more then a few hours around here... We may get lucky over the weekend & get a quick dusting( only to have it washed away)but most likely it wont even turn over long enough to do even that ..... The 15th-20th looks to be at least cold enough air for something to happen... So we will see.... Definitely a signal on the EPS for that time. EPS says we can expect a temporary rise in temperatures ahead of the cutters next week, followed by a subsequent downward trend. While there may be some snow opportunities, they remain more limited for Hampton Roads. The snowfall mean was one of the more depressing maps I've seen this winter. And that's even skewed by the few members that still give us accumulations this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 5 hours ago, ldub23 said: Thanks, if only that would happen again I found these, too for your area. When I have time at some point, I'll look for more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 The 18Z 3K NAM has precip arriving into the Richmond metro between 6am and 8am on Saturday. That is the window where freezing rain could fall before changing to rain and tapering off Saturday evening after sunset. However, the western portions of Powhatan and Goochland and areas north of about Fredericksburg could take until noon before changing over. Precip totals look to exceed an inch in most places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 I was looking at the 18z GFS, and of course, this is an OP run way out there, but hopefully, it's indicative of opportunities later in the month. At 294, you can see the energy moving into CONUS in the SW, but then it gets squashed after it gets to about AR/LA. You can watch the PV lobe squash it. If that PV is weaker and that -NAO block relaxes more and is a bit farther north than is depicted here, perhaps that wave can develop and swing south of us, and moisture override with temps in the 20s here, and we get like a 1/30/2010, which came about in a similar way. Wishful thinking and using an 18z OP past 300 hours for analysis...so. But, wanted to be positive for the likes of others like @ldub23, @eaglesin2011, @Conway7305, @SoCoWx, @Stormpc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 20 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: You can watch the PV lobe squash it. If that PV is weaker and that -NAO block relaxes more and is a bit farther north than is depicted here, perhaps that wave can develop and swing south of us, and moisture override with temps in the 20s here, and we get like a 1/30/2010, which came about in a similar way. The January 30, 2010, storm was a southern slider that occurred with a very cold airmass in place. Richmond recorded 10.0" of snow with 1-2 inches per hour rates and was only around 20°F during the height of the event, one of the coldest storms we had seen in a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, RIC Airport said: I found these, too for your area. When I have time at some point, I'll look for more. I was a kid and remember it well. Friday afternoon they were predicting snow flurries for sat, then sat morning they were saying 1-2 inches. At the height of the storm it was 16 degrees with 40+wind gusts and heavy snow. It snowed all day sunday and the temp warmed to 27. They said 13 inches but it had to be at least 20. Right after we had a big warm up and it was gone in a few days except there were still small snow piles on apr 02 in parking lots. Im using Norfolk obs. Here is the wildest 10 days of weather ever here. On the 15th of feb it got to 80 degrees. On the 18th we had 13.6 of snow. On the 21st it got to 76 degrees. On the 24th we had 8.6 inches of snow. Nothing like it since. Sum 1462 981 - - 601 9 5.80 24.4 - Average 52.2 35.0 43.6 -0.6 - - - - 1.2 Normal 53.4 35.1 44.2 - 582 1 2.90 1.5 - 1989-02-01 72 46 59.0 16.7 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-02 80 52 66.0 23.6 0 1 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-03 81 41 61.0 18.5 4 0 0.11 0.0 0 1989-02-04 41 33 37.0 -5.6 28 0 0.02 0.0 0 1989-02-05 38 34 36.0 -6.7 29 0 0.64 0.0 0 1989-02-06 45 37 41.0 -1.8 24 0 0.18 0.0 0 1989-02-07 45 35 40.0 -3.0 25 0 0.12 0.0 0 1989-02-08 43 36 39.5 -3.6 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-09 37 20 28.5 -14.7 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-10 40 19 29.5 -13.9 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-11 53 26 39.5 -4.0 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-12 55 30 42.5 -1.2 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-13 57 34 45.5 1.6 19 0 0.02 0.0 0 1989-02-14 77 56 66.5 22.5 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-15 80 62 71.0 26.8 0 6 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-16 67 41 54.0 9.6 11 0 T 0.0 0 1989-02-17 43 30 36.5 -8.1 28 0 0.15 1.2 0 1989-02-18 35 29 32.0 -12.7 33 0 1.33 13.6 7 1989-02-19 38 26 32.0 -12.9 33 0 0.18 0.6 9 1989-02-20 50 24 37.0 -8.1 28 0 0.04 0.0 4 1989-02-21 76 44 60.0 14.7 5 0 0.49 0.0 0 1989-02-22 60 43 51.5 6.0 13 0 0.21 0.0 0 1989-02-23 43 36 39.5 -6.2 25 0 0.16 0.4 0 1989-02-24 36 26 31.0 -14.9 34 0 1.03 8.6 3 1989-02-25 36 21 28.5 -17.6 36 0 0.00 0.0 7 1989-02-26 50 29 39.5 -6.8 25 0 0.00 0.0 3 1989-02-27 44 36 40.0 -6.5 25 0 0.41 T 0 1989-02-28 40 35 37.5 -9.2 27 0 0.71 0.0 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBeach Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I hate to say it, but I do think that snow a decreasing possibility in VA. As an avid snow chaser, finding an event that feels like it will produce within the state lines has become much more challenging in the past 5 years. I’m still on the fence about Saturday’s storm, looking at the Luray and Front Royal area. It’s a haul from Tidewater, and with the temps being so marginal it’s a a complete roll of the dice. 5-10 years back, you could always count on climo. Not so much these days. Sad. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 This morning was one of the colder mornings we've seen this winter, particularly for inland areas. Wakefield issued a Winter Weather Advisory for areas just west of Richmond until 10am tomorrow. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 409 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2024 VAZ061-062-069-510-051715- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WW.Y.0001.240106T0600Z-240106T1700Z/ Cumberland-Goochland-Powhatan-Eastern Louisa- Including the cities of Angola, Guinea Mills, Hawk, Raines Tavern, Reeds, Stoddert, Goochland, Fine Creek Mills, Flat Rock, Goodwins Store, Subletts, Worshams, Clayville, Genito, and Mineral 409 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total sleet accumulations of less than one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...Cumberland, Goochland, Powhatan and Eastern Louisa Counties. * WHEN...From 1 AM to noon EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Latest gfs ends with an SER and once again the cold can never get here. low after low cutting to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 53 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Latest gfs ends with an SER and once again the cold can never get here. low after low cutting to the west. The end of the 00z run delivered a snow/ice storm for Richmond and West. It will continue to flip/flop. Remember when the Christmas Day GFS had us around 70°F for tomorrow? The models have periodically tried to torch us, and although we've been skewed warm, thankfully, the warmest outcomes have not yet materialized. But I see what you're saying. You're tired of seeing the same troughiness in the west and cutter after cutter. I am, too! Thankfully, the ensemble mean wasn't too torchy and a few members were frigid. But similar challenges remain until we get a bonafide ridge out west. The end of last night's EPS had a different look in the east, which I've also posted below. 06Z GEFS 00Z EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Amazing cold dump in the west with no way for it to come east. We will end with a ridge and warm rain. 12Z is far worse than even the 6z which was bad enough. This is 1977 in reverse. hot in the east brutal cold in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 24 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Amazing cold dump in the west with no way for it to come east. We will end with a ridge and warm rain. 12Z is far worse than even the 6z which was bad enough. This is 1977 in reverse. hot in the east brutal cold in the west. Just let the pattern evolve. It's been doing this for several days now. We know the cold will initially dump west. It's the period beyond that with the best potential for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 37 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Just let the pattern evolve. It's been doing this for several days now. We know the cold will initially dump west. It's the period beyond that with the best potential for us. @ldub23, case in point. And there is plenty of time to improve this. But, the opportunity is there once we get the cold. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 Although there is still potential based on the evolving pattern, the 12Z EPS snowfall mean was not that encouraging east of the mountains. One member did give RIC 11" of snow so hopefully it has a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: Although there is still potential based on the evolving pattern, the 12Z EPS snowfall mean was not that encouraging east of the mountains. One member did give RIC 11" of snow so hopefully it has a clue. Yeah not much there with big hits. Hopefully that will change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: Although there is still potential based on the evolving pattern, the 12Z EPS snowfall mean was not that encouraging east of the mountains. One member did give RIC 11" of snow so hopefully it has a clue. Member #29 gave RIC 11" on Day 10. I just looked at it, and that storm jumped from STL to RDU and then turned up the coast. We never get snow in that evolution. So, you have an improbable scenario skewing the mean. Meanwhile, member #34 had a 68°F 7am temp at RIC that day, which is equally unlikely. EPS Members 26-50 (see #34) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 18Z GFS was encouraging, @Conway7305, @wasnow215, @ldub23, @Stormpc, @mikeeng92, @Rhino16. The PV lobe drops into the CONUS and delivers cold and forces the storm track south, just hopefully it's not too far south. But, we have some wiggle room. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: 18Z GFS was encouraging, @Conway7305, @wasnow215, @ldub23, @Stormpc, @mikeeng92, @Rhino16. The PV lobe drops into the CONUS and delivers cold and forces the storm track south, just hopefully it's not too far south. But, we have some wiggle room. 30 mile NW trend please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: 30 mile NW trend please How bout we hope for it being SIXTY miles MORE SE lol then maybe it won’t miss 60 miles NW!! Lol! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Hopefully by Jan 20th we get a +PNA with a negative NAO/AO with strong Nino 2016 prime example. PNA Positive, NAO negative . Jan 15-16 we had a light event then epic week following on Jan 23rd we got absolutely dumped on . 16 inches fell Henrico. Hoping PNA can climb as forecasted to positive by mid month and we may start seeing some good action. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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