Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[ldub23]

2 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

I found these, too for your area. When I have time at some point, I'll look for more. 

I was a kid and remember  it well. Friday afternoon they were  predicting  snow flurries for  sat, then sat morning they were saying  1-2 inches. At the height  of the storm it was  16 degrees with 40+wind gusts and  heavy snow. It snowed all day sunday and the temp warmed to 27. They said  13 inches  but  it  had to be at  least  20. Right after we had a  big warm up and  it was  gone  in a few days except  there were still small snow  piles  on apr 02 in parking  lots.

 

Im using Norfolk obs. Here  is the  wildest 10 days of weather ever  here. On the  15th of  feb it  got to 80 degrees. On the  18th we  had  13.6 of  snow. On the  21st  it  got to 76 degrees. On the  24th we  had 8.6 inches  of snow. Nothing  like  it since.

 

Sum	1462	981	-	-	601	9	5.80	24.4	-
Average	52.2	35.0	43.6	-0.6	-	-	-	-	1.2
Normal	53.4	35.1	44.2	-	582	1	2.90	1.5	-
1989-02-01	72	46	59.0	16.7	6	0	0.00	0.0	0
1989-02-02	80	52	66.0	23.6	0	1	0.00	0.0	0
1989-02-03	81	41	61.0	18.5	4	0	0.11	0.0	0
1989-02-04	41	33	37.0	-5.6	28	0	0.02	0.0	0
1989-02-05	38	34	36.0	-6.7	29	0	0.64	0.0	0
1989-02-06	45	37	41.0	-1.8	24	0	0.18	0.0	0
1989-02-07	45	35	40.0	-3.0	25	0	0.12	0.0	0
1989-02-08	43	36	39.5	-3.6	25	0	0.00	0.0	0
1989-02-09	37	20	28.5	-14.7	36	0	0.00	0.0	0
1989-02-10	40	19	29.5	-13.9	35	0	0.00	0.0	0
1989-02-11	53	26	39.5	-4.0	25	0	0.00	0.0	0
1989-02-12	55	30	42.5	-1.2	22	0	0.00	0.0	0
1989-02-13	57	34	45.5	1.6	19	0	0.02	0.0	0
1989-02-14	77	56	66.5	22.5	0	2	0.00	0.0	0
1989-02-15	80	62	71.0	26.8	0	6	0.00	0.0	0
1989-02-16	67	41	54.0	9.6	11	0	T	0.0	0
1989-02-17	43	30	36.5	-8.1	28	0	0.15	1.2	0
1989-02-18	35	29	32.0	-12.7	33	0	1.33	13.6	7
1989-02-19	38	26	32.0	-12.9	33	0	0.18	0.6	9
1989-02-20	50	24	37.0	-8.1	28	0	0.04	0.0	4
1989-02-21	76	44	60.0	14.7	5	0	0.49	0.0	0
1989-02-22	60	43	51.5	6.0	13	0	0.21	0.0	0
1989-02-23	43	36	39.5	-6.2	25	0	0.16	0.4	0
1989-02-24	36	26	31.0	-14.9	34	0	1.03	8.6	3
1989-02-25	36	21	28.5	-17.6	36	0	0.00	0.0	7
1989-02-26	50	29	39.5	-6.8	25	0	0.00	0.0	3
1989-02-27	44	36	40.0	-6.5	25	0	0.41	T	0
1989-02-28	40	35	37.5	-9.2	27	0	0.71	0.0	0

 

 

 

[SnowBeach]

I hate to say it, but I do think that snow a decreasing possibility in VA. As an avid snow chaser, finding an event that feels like it will produce within the state lines has become much more challenging in the past 5 years. I’m still on the fence about Saturday’s storm, looking at the Luray and Front Royal area. It’s a haul from Tidewater, and with the temps being so marginal it’s a a complete roll of the dice. 5-10 years back, you could always count on climo. Not so much these days. Sad.

[RIC Airport]

This morning was one of the colder mornings we've seen this winter, particularly for inland areas. Wakefield issued a Winter Weather Advisory for areas just west of Richmond until 10am tomorrow. 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
409 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2024

VAZ061-062-069-510-051715-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.WW.Y.0001.240106T0600Z-240106T1700Z/
Cumberland-Goochland-Powhatan-Eastern Louisa-
Including the cities of Angola, Guinea Mills, Hawk,
Raines Tavern, Reeds, Stoddert, Goochland, Fine Creek Mills,
Flat Rock, Goodwins Store, Subletts, Worshams, Clayville, Genito,
and Mineral
409 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total sleet accumulations
  of less than one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze.

* WHERE...Cumberland, Goochland, Powhatan and Eastern Louisa
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to noon EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

[ldub23]

Latest gfs ends with an SER and once again the cold can never get here. low after low cutting to the west.

 

[RIC Airport]

53 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Latest gfs ends with an SER and once again the cold can never get here. low after low cutting to the west.

The end of the 00z run delivered a snow/ice storm for Richmond and West. It will continue to flip/flop. Remember when the Christmas Day GFS had us around 70°F for tomorrow?   

The models have periodically tried to torch us, and although we've been skewed warm, thankfully, the warmest outcomes have not yet materialized. But I see what you're saying. You're tired of seeing the same troughiness in the west and cutter after cutter. I am, too!  Thankfully, the ensemble mean wasn't too torchy and a few members were frigid. But similar challenges remain until we get a bonafide ridge out west. The end of last night's EPS had a different look in the east, which I've also posted below. 

06Z GEFS

00Z EPS

[ldub23]

Amazing  cold dump in the west with no way for  it  to come east. We will end  with a ridge and warm rain.  12Z is far worse than even the 6z  which was  bad enough. This  is  1977 in reverse. hot  in the east brutal cold  in the west.

 

[RIC Airport]

24 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Amazing  cold dump in the west with no way for  it  to come east. We will end  with a ridge and warm rain.  12Z is far worse than even the 6z  which was  bad enough. This  is  1977 in reverse. hot  in the east brutal cold  in the west.

Just let the pattern evolve. It's been doing this for several days now. We know the cold will initially dump west. It's the period beyond that with the best potential for us. 

[RIC Airport]

37 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Just let the pattern evolve. It's been doing this for several days now. We know the cold will initially dump west. It's the period beyond that with the best potential for us. 

@ldub23, case in point. And there is plenty of time to improve this. But, the opportunity is there once we get the cold.

 

[RIC Airport]

Although there is still potential based on the evolving pattern, the 12Z EPS snowfall mean was not that encouraging east of the mountains. One member did give RIC 11" of snow so hopefully it has a clue.

[Conway7305]

1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

Although there is still potential based on the evolving pattern, the 12Z EPS snowfall mean was not that encouraging east of the mountains. One member did give RIC 11" of snow so hopefully it has a clue.

Yeah not much there with big hits.  Hopefully that will change 

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

Although there is still potential based on the evolving pattern, the 12Z EPS snowfall mean was not that encouraging east of the mountains. One member did give RIC 11" of snow so hopefully it has a clue.

Member #29 gave RIC 11" on Day 10. I just looked at it, and that storm jumped from STL to RDU and then turned up the coast. We never get snow in that evolution. So, you have an improbable scenario skewing the mean. 

Meanwhile, member #34 had a 68°F 7am temp at RIC that day, which is equally unlikely.

EPS Members 26-50 (see #34)

 

[RIC Airport]

18Z GFS was encouraging, @Conway7305, @wasnow215, @ldub23, @Stormpc, @mikeeng92, @Rhino16. The PV lobe drops into the CONUS and delivers cold and forces the storm track south, just hopefully it's not too far south. But, we have some wiggle room. 

 

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

18Z GFS was encouraging, @Conway7305, @wasnow215, @ldub23, @Stormpc, @mikeeng92, @Rhino16. The PV lobe drops into the CONUS and delivers cold and forces the storm track south, just hopefully it's not too far south. But, we have some wiggle room. 

 

30 mile  NW trend  please

[wasnow215]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

30 mile  NW trend  please

How bout we hope for it being SIXTY miles MORE SE lol then maybe it won’t miss 60 miles NW!! Lol!

[Conway7305]

Hopefully by Jan 20th we get a +PNA with a negative NAO/AO with strong Nino 

2016 prime example.  PNA Positive, NAO negative . Jan 15-16 we had a light event then   epic week following on Jan 23rd we got absolutely dumped on .  16 inches fell Henrico.  Hoping PNA can climb as forecasted to positive by mid month and we may start seeing some good action.  

[RIC Airport]

00Z GFS also had a snowstorm, but it was a few days earlier and was primarily a hit north and west of Richmond. The reason why that wave went north was because the PV lobe was weaker.

You can see the energy enter the PAC NW and then get quashed SE on the heels of the PV, but since the PV lobe weakens and lifts farther north into Canada, it allows the energy to take a farther north track. 

Don't need to post the maps since we know it'll change.  But at least it's consistently showing something again. I personally prefer they stay south of us at this range.

 

[wasnow215]

Not a bad look

[RIC Airport]

13 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Not a bad look

 I edited my post see above and explained why it went north. 

[wasnow215]

2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

 I edited my post see above and explained why it went north. 

If you look at 18z @RIC Airport it doesn’t look like the same system as this one. This one is a couple days earlier. 

[RIC Airport]

12 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

If you look at 18z @RIC Airport it doesn’t look like the same system as this one. This one is a couple days earlier. 

You're right, I mentioned that.

[wasnow215]

2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

You're right, I mentioned that.

Haha sorry-when you mentioned it staying south I was thinking of the 18z run. I think we’re gonna hit on one of these. 

[RIC Airport]

23 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

If you look at 18z @RIC Airport it doesn’t look like the same system as this one. This one is a couple days earlier. 

 

17 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Haha sorry-when you mentioned it staying south I was thinking of the 18z run. I think we’re gonna hit on one of these. 

It looks like a couple of different pieces of energy, and any of them could be the one that becomes the storm. I suspect GFS will probably hone in on different ones, so the timing will be different, especially this far out. That's ok as long as we maintain the active southern stream. We just need the correct one timed with cold.  Also, if the PV relax just enough so they don't go too far south. 

[Conway7305]

Encouraging Model Runs at 0zand 6z 

Our window may be Jan 15th 16th then again  22nd-23rd 

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, Conway7305 said:

Encouraging Model Runs at 0zand 6z 

Our window may be Jan 15th 16th then again  22nd-23rd 

12Z GFS was awful. So, hopefully it's just a fluke run.  

 

Last night's EPS was way more encouraging, and you can tell the 15th to 25th period has potential. So we'll see. 

 

[ldub23]

The se ridge wont go away

[RIC Airport]

35 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

The se ridge wont go away

12z EPS still has a signal in the LR after next weekend's cutter and once the PV lobe drops south and moves eastward. This would provide the cold and push the storm track farther south. Also, the EPS mean has ticked back up and some with quite a few hits on the ensembles, which is different from many previous runs. 

 

 

[Conway7305]

9 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

12z EPS still has a signal in the LR after next weekend's cutter.

 

 

Only a few big Hits for our area but signal is there in long range.  Hopefully that will change for the better.  Plenty of time. I expect some wild OP runs in the coming days.  

[wasnow215]

We are way better at being patient snow lovers/weather hobbyists than the LR is delivering snow haha.

[ldub23]

47 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

12z EPS still has a signal in the LR after next weekend's cutter and once the PV lobe drops south and moves eastward. This would provide the cold and push the storm track farther south. Also, the EPS mean has ticked back up and some with quite a few hits on the ensembles, which is different from many previous runs. 

 

 

[RIC Airport]

16 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

 

Yeah, the Euro op only goes out to 240. I mentioned after the cutter next weekend, which is around hour 168. It's beyond that when the PV drops and begins to move eastward and things get interesting. The EPS goes out to hour 360, which is what i posted. Nothing was a slam dunk, but still shows potential.