wasnow215 Posted Sunday at 10:12 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:12 PM 5 minutes ago, JB Fins said: Wow, trying to remember a battle between the models this far apart so close to the onset of an event. But they're really not. The only one that hasn't trended south today has been the nam. Icon, European model, RGEM, Canadian all have trended with more snow down here than it was showing yesterday and last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Sunday at 10:13 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:13 PM Did you guys see that the GFS trended colder at the surface? Check it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Sunday at 10:23 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 10:23 PM 25 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Surface temps are colder throughout! Little help with the pics @RIC Airport 10 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Did you guys see that the GFS trended colder at the surface? Check it out 18z GFS had a slightly earlier arrival. And yes, the surface temps are a few degrees colder because of that, which I alluded to earlier that an earlier arrival would be ideal to keep temps from rising too much Tuesday morning. 18Z GFS has RIC at 33°F when precip arrives around 7-8 am. The 12Z run had temps 36-38°F when the precip arrived around 9-10 am. Nonetheless, looking at the hourly temps, the 18z GFS doesn't have RIC hitting 32°F until around 5 pm. But that doesn't mean it may not hit 32 intrahour under heavy rates. The best rates are from about 10am to 7pm with 1pm to 4pm being the peak. So ratios won't be 10:1 if this is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Sunday at 10:31 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 10:31 PM I should also point out that once RIC hits freezing at 5pm, it stays at 32°F until about 1pm Wednesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Sunday at 10:32 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 10:32 PM 18 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Did you guys see that the GFS trended colder at the surface? Check it out What is your call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Sunday at 10:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:41 PM 16 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 18z GFS had a slightly earlier arrival. And yes, the surface temps are a few degrees colder because of that, which I alluded to earlier that an earlier arrival would be ideal to keep temps from rising too much Tuesday morning. 18Z GFS has RIC at 33°F when precip arrives around 7-8 am. The 12Z run had temps 36-38°F when the precip arrived around 9-10 am. Nonetheless, looking at the hourly temps, the 18z GFS doesn't have RIC hitting 32°F until around 5 pm. But that doesn't mean it may not hit 32 intrahour under heavy rates. The best rates are from about 10am to 7pm with 1pm to 4pm being the peak. So ratios won't be 10:1 if this is correct. I live near short pump so temps are slightly better NW of city Imagine if that slug of moisture after our initial wave was also snow. We would be talking feet of snow..lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Sunday at 10:49 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:49 PM 16 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: What is your call? 3-5" -been the same since Friday. And it lines up with the Watch lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Sunday at 10:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:50 PM Just now, wasnow215 said: 3-5" -been the same since Friday. And it lines up with the Watch lol And the reason for being conservative is bc of temps I think track is fine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Sunday at 11:01 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:01 PM I’m thinking between 4-7” I could totally bust if warm air comes in from weaker HP to the N. This storm is more of an overrunning event and not a costal storm. Coastal tend to pull in warm air from the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted Sunday at 11:04 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:04 PM I'm going with 1-2" locally in Richmond with spots up to 3". That's my final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Sunday at 11:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:21 PM I’m not able to view the 18z Euro. I know it’s running. Hopefully it’s a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Sunday at 11:29 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 11:29 PM 7 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: I’m not able to view the 18z Euro. I know it’s running. Hopefully it’s a step in the right direction. It's basically the same as 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted Sunday at 11:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:56 PM 8 hours ago, RVAman said: I’m gonna throw the towel in until it happens. No more watching models or reading forecasts for me. Hope for the best. You are the rva version of ji 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted yesterday at 12:48 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:48 AM Im waiting on my 307.91 sleet pellets tomorrow am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted yesterday at 12:49 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:49 AM 52 minutes ago, Rvarookie said: You are the rva version of ji Ji who? Ji you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted yesterday at 01:09 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 01:09 AM 19 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Im waiting on my 307.91 sleet pellets tomorrow am Yes, there is a little feature arriving early tomorrow morning that's been on and off the models for a 2-3 days now. GFS has been the most bullish with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted yesterday at 02:14 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:14 AM 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: Yes, there is a little feature arriving early tomorrow morning that's been on and off the models for a 2-3 days now. GFS has been the most bullish with it. 00z NAM showing it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted yesterday at 02:30 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:30 AM hard to tell, but looks like the NAM didn’t change much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted yesterday at 02:35 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:35 AM Not worried about the NAM thermals given gfs and euro (always runs warm). Precip is still there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted yesterday at 03:19 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:19 AM Icon looked good but we are very close to the mix line I guess the good thing about that is the heaviest precep is where the rain snow line sets up. we don’t have much wiggle room w/ that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted yesterday at 03:54 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:54 AM GFS bump north. Razor thin cutoff line. I’m sticking with my 1-3. I would not be surprised within 24 hours if the precip shifts even further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted yesterday at 03:54 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 03:54 AM 00z GFS is about 20-25 miles north with axis of the heaviest hand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted yesterday at 04:13 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:13 AM 15 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 00z GFS is about 20-25 miles north with axis of the heaviest hand. Slight N adjustment. Could be just wavering back and fourth a bit but could also be beginning of an adjustment to Euro/Nam. My guess is 4” for RVA with a lot of sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted yesterday at 04:16 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:16 AM 19 minutes ago, RVAman said: GFS bump north. Razor thin cutoff line. I’m sticking with my 1-3. I would not be surprised within 24 hours if the precip shifts even further north. I tend to agree as much as I don’t want too. IMO Fredericksburg to NOVA gets best accumulations. We get serval inches from front end then goes to sleet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted yesterday at 04:58 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:58 AM E A G L E S ...EAGLES!! Total total domination GFS is fine -850's never cave on 0z run and surface is good too. Both of those things are very important 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted yesterday at 05:10 AM Share Posted yesterday at 05:10 AM Sleet here already but temp is way above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted yesterday at 05:36 AM Share Posted yesterday at 05:36 AM Euro OP is slightly N. 3 “ for RVA 5” near Short Pump Evem a slight adjustment S will add major accumulations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted yesterday at 05:42 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 05:42 AM 8 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Euro OP is slightly N. 3 “ for RVA 5” near Short Pump Evem a slight adjustment S will add major accumulations. I'm headed up to NYC tomorrow and will enjoy the 1-2" I see from this. I may browse, but may not post much tomorrow. I think the Euro is more right for RIC, I would be concerned about mixing so those totals could be cut in half. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago As we all expected the GFS has slowly caved. and heaviest banding is now in Fredericksburg.. 3-4 inches here for now unless we get more Shifts N Im guessing any hope of a last min S trend is over… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago HRRR (short range) model still shows heavy banding over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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