RIC Airport Posted Saturday at 05:57 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 05:57 AM 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: it would be even better is surface temps were colder, RIC is 33-34F for the whole event. Would need to rely on heavy rates before temps at 850mb rise above 0C toward Tuesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Saturday at 06:07 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 06:07 AM It's too bad when I get back from NYC Thursday evening, it'll be melted by rain and temperatures in the 50s. But, hopefully the wet snow piles up beforehand. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Saturday at 01:40 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:40 PM 6z GFS is solid. Nam is way N but it’s the NAM and too far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted Saturday at 03:08 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:08 PM GFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Saturday at 04:39 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:39 PM 12z GFS Solid!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Saturday at 05:03 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 05:03 PM 25 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: 12z GFS Solid!!!! It is indeed for the Richmond area. Although there are still many signs that the heaviest accumulations will be north of Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted Saturday at 05:13 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:13 PM 9 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: It is indeed for the Richmond area. Although there are still many signs that the heaviest accumulations will be north of Richmond. What are the signs that the heaviest will be north of Ric? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Saturday at 05:18 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 05:18 PM 3 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: What are the signs that the heaviest will be north of Ric? Here is the 12Z GEFS and the 6z EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Saturday at 05:24 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 05:24 PM Also, @jlewis1111, although this is out in range for that model, the NAM, at least as of now, is favoring a north. But, all of this doesnt mean RIC won't see any snow. NBM lags behind a bit, but still has recent data is also favoring the heaviest being north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Saturday at 05:29 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 05:29 PM @jlewis1111, all of that being said, the 12z Euro is farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted Saturday at 05:29 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:29 PM Very not solid here. I knew it was too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Saturday at 05:33 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 05:33 PM 3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: @jlewis1111, all of that being said, the 12z Euro is farther south. 10:1 fwiw 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Saturday at 05:36 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:36 PM My call , we see some here between 3-7 inches. I feel like the GFS OP is overdone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Saturday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:41 PM Just now, Conway7305 said: My call , we see some here between 3-7 inches. I feel like the GFS OP is overdone After the dropsonde 0z Friday which was Thursday night into the GFS was when things started changing and we started seeing more snow would be to the south. Yesterday I made a call of 3 to 5 inches and I might be a little low with that now. But thermals are still iffy as far as good accumulation on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Saturday at 05:53 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 05:53 PM 10 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: My call , we see some here between 3-7 inches. I feel like the GFS OP is overdone 5 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: After the dropsonde 0z Friday which was Thursday night into the GFS was when things started changing and we started seeing more snow would be to the south. Yesterday I made a call of 3 to 5 inches and I might be a little low with that now. But thermals are still iffy as far as good accumulation on the ground. Euro has surface temperatures around 33-34°F during the event, so there won't be an exact 10:1 ratio. Note the difference between 10:1 and the Kuchera map I posted earlier. Hopefully, the heaviest bands will set right up over Richmond Metro, which could help temperatures reach freezing long enough for the snow to pile up in spots. Lighter rates will probably mean 33°Fvs 32°F. The best thing about this is that the precip is starting early in the morning, which should help. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Saturday at 06:01 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 06:01 PM 42 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Here is the 12Z GEFS and the 6z EPS There was a nice uptick on the EPS from the 6z and 00z runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Saturday at 06:07 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:07 PM 8 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Euro has surface temperatures around 33-34°F during the event, so there won't be an exact 10:1 ratio. Note the difference between 10:1 and the Kuchera map I posted earlier. Hopefully, the heaviest bands will set right up over Richmond Metro, which could help temperatures reach freezing long enough for the snow to pile up in spots. Lighter rates will probably mean 33°Fvs 32°F. The best thing about this is that the precip is starting early in the morning, which should help. Two things I will say about thermals: 1-Looks like the GFS is a little colder as forecasted 2-It seems for this winter season so far the models have had a hard time dealing with CAD. It's consistently poorly forecasted and we have been much colder than what the temperatures we're supposed to be. during that cold spell as we came out of it we would see predicted temperatures of 40° by 9 a.m. for example and it would still be 32° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Saturday at 06:17 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 06:17 PM 5 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Two things I will say about thermals: 1-Looks like the GFS is a little colder as forecasted 2-It seems for this winter season so far the models have had a hard time dealing with CAD. It's consistently poorly forecasted and we have been much colder than what the temperatures we're supposed to be. during that cold spell as we came out of it we would see predicted temperatures of 40° by 9 a.m. for example and it would still be 32° Yup, we also saw that during the 1/6 storm, the forecasted temps were off by about 5 degrees, including after the 2nd snowstorm later that week. 12z GFS has higher snowfall totals, because it has RIC at 32°F during the heaviest rates. Hopefully it's correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted Saturday at 06:51 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:51 PM We're looking at a very early start time being Tuesday morning right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Saturday at 06:56 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:56 PM 5 minutes ago, RVAman said: We're looking at a very early start time being Tuesday morning right? Daybreak about 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted Saturday at 09:02 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:02 PM NAM looks way drier than the other models thus far. Also has a second batch arriving Tuesday night into Wednesday that looks to be all rain. Feeling very meh about this system right now. I imagine it won't be very strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Saturday at 09:05 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 09:05 PM 3 hours ago, RIC Airport said: Also, @jlewis1111, although this is out in range for that model, the NAM, at least as of now, is favoring a north. But, all of this doesnt mean RIC won't see any snow. 18Z NAM is getting within range and, so far, still favors the heaviest accumulations north of Richmond. Yes, it's the NAM, but I'm just showing another model for expectation management; we need the short term models to get more in line with the globals. Verbatim Richmond starts off as snow, but quickly changes over to rain. Precip arrival is also several hours later on the NAM compared to the 12z GFS, so that could be why it's warmer and less snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted Saturday at 09:09 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:09 PM 3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 18Z NAM is getting within range and, so far, still favors the heaviest accumulations north of Richmond. Yes, it's the NAM, but I'm just showing another model for expectation management; we need the short term models to get more in line with the globals. Verbatim Richmond starts off as snow, but quickly changes over to rain. Precip arrival is also several hours later on the NAM compared to the 12z GFS, so that could be why it's warmer and less snow. This is pretty much what I've expected to happen the entire time. Sadly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Saturday at 09:54 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:54 PM 52 minutes ago, RVAman said: NAM looks way drier than the other models thus far. Also has a second batch arriving Tuesday night into Wednesday that looks to be all rain. Feeling very meh about this system right now. I imagine it won't be very strong. Shocker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Saturday at 09:56 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:56 PM 46 minutes ago, RVAman said: This is pretty much what I've expected to happen the entire time. Sadly. EVERYTIME! Every event!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Saturday at 09:58 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:58 PM NAM did come south some from 12z FWIW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Saturday at 09:59 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:59 PM 52 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 18Z NAM is getting within range and, so far, still favors the heaviest accumulations north of Richmond. Yes, it's the NAM, but I'm just showing another model for expectation management; we need the short term models to get more in line with the globals. Verbatim Richmond starts off as snow, but quickly changes over to rain. Precip arrival is also several hours later on the NAM compared to the 12z GFS, so that could be why it's warmer and less snow. It's not "it's the NAM". It's the NAM outside of 36 hours. It's ok inside 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Saturday at 10:02 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:02 PM 18z GFS still looks good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Saturday at 10:04 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 10:04 PM 2 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: 18z GFS still looks good Holding its course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Saturday at 10:05 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:05 PM Just now, RIC Airport said: Holding its course. according to GFS, it’s a long duration overrunning snow event. 24 hours. Still skeptical but happy it’s holding course 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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