Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[JFLETCHER]

Yep it's all rain outside of some mix for northern areas of AKQ Tuesday then over to rain for days.

[Conway7305]

GFS starting to cave to the Euro. we are basically on the mix line for  a bit but still decent hit.  We don’t need this to trend anymore N. 

[Stormpc]

2 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

GFS starting to cave to the Euro, ugh 

I'm not sure. I don't think so. Looks a little flatter implying snow to mix then back to snow for Richmond and North. I think we all buy this solution. Not much change from the past two or three runs except for the northern Edge keeps getting squeezed

[wasnow215]

41 minutes ago, RVAman said:

Not buying the GFS. It will cave to the Euro soon enough. Probably the 12z or 18z if I had to guess. I get we hope for snow but we also have to be realistic. I’d say a front end snow start following by heavy cold rain is the likely scenario. Likely no accumulation. 

Lol

[wasnow215]

This is how you know you could be "debbing"

 

About three or four weeks ago...."the euro is way to amped there's no way we're gonna get that much snow-GFS makes way more sense"

 

Today-...."No way that GFS can be right it's gonna end up going towards the euro!"

 

 

 

 

[wasnow215]

6 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

I'm not sure. I don't think so. Looks a little flatter implying snow to mix then back to snow for Richmond and North. I think we all buy this solution. Not much change from the past two or three runs except for the northern Edge keeps getting squeezed

Yes for sure -and lots of time to see how that HP actually plays out and how suppressed we end up 

[Conway7305]

4 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Yes for sure -and lots of time to see how that HP actually plays out and how suppressed we end up 

I hope that is right fellas, I’m really not trying to be a downer.   The euro is just not budging S at all the past few runs from what I can see. I’d feel a lot better if  both GFS and Euro were on the same page.  

[RVAman]

13 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

This is how you know you could be "debbing"

 

About three or four weeks ago...."the euro is way to amped there's no way we're gonna get that much snow-GFS makes way more sense"

 

Today-...."No way that GFS can be right it's gonna end up going towards the euro!"

 

 

 

 

I get the vibe that you’re using “hope” instead of logic right now. No other viable model is showing accumulating snow. On top of that the GFS is slowly caving to the Euro. We all “hope” for snow but that doesn’t make it a forecast because one model notorious for being over amped and south is showing something while the rest slam NOVA. 

[Conway7305]

12z ICON was ok for the 1st wave.  5-6” 

[JFLETCHER]

So easy to see the 12z GFS is caving towards the EURO. Big shift north, it will continue.

[wasnow215]

14 minutes ago, RVAman said:

I get the vibe that you’re using “hope” instead of logic right now. No other viable model is showing accumulating snow. On top of that the GFS is slowly caving to the Euro. We all “hope” for snow but that doesn’t make it a forecast because one model notorious for being over amped and south is showing something while the rest slam NOVA. 

Tell me what was incorrect about what I wrote?

 

And the first time the GFS showed any kind of accumulation like it did was 0Z last night. So how can anyone say it's caving if literally it just started showing this amount of snow 12 hours ago? Every event we had so far, and somebody else called you out not me, you said it wasn't going to snow, or we would have next to nothing. And you ended up being incorrect.

 

So really it's not about me hoping it's more about people being negative against the science which is just funny to me.

 

Will we get 3-5" like I see us getting before thermals cave? Who knows? But it's not something that is a wish based on the models at this point. It's at least 30-40% chance CURRENTLY.
 

[RVAman]

12 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Tell me what was incorrect about what I wrote?

 

And the first time the GFS showed any kind of accumulation like it did was 0Z last night. So how can anyone say it's caving if literally it just started showing this amount of snow 12 hours ago? Every event we had so far, and somebody else called you out not me, you said it wasn't going to snow, or we would have next to nothing. And you ended up being incorrect.

 

So really it's not about me hoping it's more about people being negative against the science which is just funny to me.

 

Will we get 3-5" like I see us getting before thermals cave? Who knows? But it's not something that is a wish based on the models at this point. It's at least 30-40% chance CURRENTLY.
 

How are you determining there’s up to a 40% chance of 3-5” based on one model? Also, I tend to lean towards RIC Airports opinions. He leads with logic and past events, so anything I’ve posted is pretty much an echo of his words. We speak outside of this board. 

[wasnow215]

1 minute ago, RVAman said:

How are you determining there’s up to a 40% chance of 3-5” based on one model? 

2-and one has been as consistent as any other. Also since January 1st forecasted high temperatures consistently have been busting by a few degrees too warm during events. And it ends up being colder than forecasted. That's been the pattern of the climo so far this winter season. 

How did you determine that we weren't gonna much of anything a few weeks ago when the models were saying we were going to?

Don't you see that this is my whole point. I could see from what was going on that 3 to 5 a few weeks ago for many parts was very possible and that's what ended up happening. There are other times that it doesn't work out. 

 

[Sernest14]

the precip is still there on the gfs and euro as it has been.  gfs is running colder than euro which is why there’s snow vs rain.  the system itself isn't really moving north, it’s just the the cold air seeps more south with the gfs.

so instead of a couple inches of snow and a ton of ice/sleet, we’re seeing more snow.  Euro shows light snow to start then light mixed followed by straight rain.  

[Sernest14]

5 straight runs of the euro digging the upper level cold further south 

[wasnow215]

30 minutes ago, Sernest14 said:

5 straight runs of the euro digging the upper level cold further south 

North and West of 95 in RVA now showing a few inches per Euro

[Conway7305]

9 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

North and West of 95 in RVA now showing a few inches per Euro

 Correct me if I’m wrong but this is the first shift S of colder air on the Euro I have seen on several runs.  HP stronger. Good Trend!  Ensembles should be better. 

[JFLETCHER]

8 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

North and West of 95 in RVA now showing a few inches per Euro

Yep, weaker initial wave will keep it more snowy in northern parts of AKQ. I was surprised by the 12z Euro.

[wasnow215]

Just now, Conway7305 said:

 Correct me if I’m wrong but this is the first shift S of colder air on the Euro I have seen.  HP stronger. Good Trend!  Ensembles should be better. 

Last 3-4 runs of EURO, VERY slight movement with colder air south before this one. This move was the best 

[Conway7305]

Stole  this from the NOVA thread.  I didn’t realize this, but it is definitely a south shift over the past three  runs.  Ignore my last jibber….lol

[wasnow215]

Just now, Conway7305 said:

Stole  this from the NOVA thread.  I didn’t realize this, but it is definitely a south shift over the past three  runs.  

Man I'll tell you one thing we "ain't" short on QPF the next few weeks it seems lol.

[wasnow215]

Just now, wasnow215 said:

Man I'll tell you one thing we "ain't" short on QPF the next few weeks it seems lol.

 

2 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Stole  this from the NOVA thread.  I didn’t realize this, but it is definitely a south shift over the past three  runs.  

Could be a decent amount of sleet and ZR also.

[Conway7305]

Euro 12z Snowfall 

[JB Fins]

Sign me up.  Wish it was only 48 hours out.

[Conway7305]

DT WxRisk says the GFS is BS.  Will see if he is right 

[wasnow215]

6 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

DT WxRisk says the GFS is BS.  Will see if he is right 

But he does say the euro makes sense and that still gives us some snow

[Conway7305]

5 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

But he does say the euro makes sense and that still gives us some snow

he did mention the Euro  does give us some snow, but he doesn’t buy the GFS

[wasnow215]

10 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

he did mention the Euro  does give us some snow, but he doesn’t buy the GFS

Yes I was looking 

[Stormpc]

If you're in New York City you don't like the trends as this one looks like it's slipping away to the south. Keep that train rolling South. Next in line is Philadelphia then Baltimore. Then we can bask in the glory. Screw them.

[Conway7305]

18z GFS holding steady looks like