Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[Conway7305]

Will take P5 please!  

[Conway7305]

Good news is, the 18z GFS lost the KY low so that may help us in time if storm is purely a coastal.  Will help draw down some colder air 

[RIC Airport]

The 00Z GFS was a little colder this run, more favorable for CHO up to DCA. 

[snowchill]

Hopefully the trend continues tomorrow!!❄️❄️

[RIC Airport]

7 hours ago, snowchill said:

Hopefully the trend continues tomorrow!!❄️❄️

6Z was a step back, even for CHO and DCA. Those mid-level thermals remain an issue. Look at how warm it gets at 850mb as the low approaches from the south. 

GFS also has the fastest arrival of the precip with surface temperatures just above freezing (35°F) as the precip arrives, but the dewpoint will be 26°F at the time. GFS has the dewpoint below freezing at RIC for 3 hours (7am-10am) so that 35°F surface temp will drop below freezing when the precip starts. 

So even in Richmond the precip will probably be frozen (snow or mix) for 2-3 hours before we flip over to rain. 

[wasnow215]

23 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Here is Wakefield's morning discussion.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 AM EST Wednesday...

The latest 03/00Z guidance (both ensemble and deterministic)
continues to show decent agreement with respect the the low
pressure system riding NE from the Gulf coast across the deep
south early Sat, with secondary low development starting along
the SE coast by daybreak Sat morning. The pattern looks mainly
like a "Miller B" setup with the initial sfc low tracking along
the Appalachians and weakening while this 2nd low deepens across
the Carolina coastal plain during the day on Sat, becoming the
dominant low and strengthening more rapidly late Sat/Sat night
as it moves to the Delmarva coast, and offshore Sat night.
This setup tends to favor mixed precip or ice rather than snow
over W/NW portions of the local area as the warm nose aloft
surges north through most of the CWA by later morning/early
aftn. The primary sfc high will be across Quebec Sat/Sat night
(as the local sfc high off the mid Atlc coast weakens). The
cold air supply will likely be too weak for the AKQ CWA, though
far NW sections of the FA typically do not warm up as fast as
the models suggest (and will be interesting to see as we get
higher res models closer to the event that tend to handle the BL
cold air better). Overall, the forecast remains fairly similar
with as the CAD will initially be strong enough for temps to be
below freezing when the precip begins along and W of I-95 (and
probably a little to the east of I-95 as well). As such, have
likely to categorical PoPs for freezing rain/sleet along and W
of the I-95 corridor and to the S of I-64 early Sat morning. To
the N of I-64, thermal profiles support more of a sleet/snow mix
initially. By later morning, mainly sleet and freezing rain will
spread N while low levels warm from the E/SE. By aftn, all areas
should be rain with the exception of the far NW where a wintry
mix may linger. There is some potential for a brief transition
back to snow in the NW Piedmont Sat night as cooler air wraps
around the low, but confidence is low and the trends are for a
faster dry slot Sat evening so this looks to be rather unlikely.
Details will continue to be refined as we get closer to the
event. Total QPF from the system of 0.50-1.00" is expected. As
for the ensembles, the GEFS is the highest regarding snowfall
amounts across the far NW while the ECMWF (EPS) has trended
down to only 1-2" snow over our far NW. These ensembles use a
10:1 SLR which is likely too high in this event, but certainly
possible that Louisa/Fluvanna Co. could see an inch of snow
before mixing with sleet and/or changing to rain. A light ice
accumulation looks most likely from South Hill to Farmville
before the changeover to plain rain. For the I-95 corridor/
metro RIC, expect the initial period of wintry mix to change
rather quickly. such that the impact will be brief. Have
undercut the NBM for highs Sat for the W 1/2 of the area, highs
in the mid- upper 30s NW, 40s for the I-95 corridor, with upper
50s SE.

How long do you think the rain will hang on Sunday morning on the west side @RIC Airport? And will it be windy Sunday morning?

[RIC Airport]

49 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

How long do you think the rain will hang on Sunday morning on the west side @RIC Airport? And will it be windy Sunday morning?

The NAM is starting to come within range, and eventually the HRRR, so timing could change. But based on the 6z GFS, this is only looking like a Saturday event. Precip arrives around 7am and ends around 7pm. 

GFS dropped 1 to 1.5" of rain.

[RIC Airport]

I am seeing wind gusts 20-30mph for C VA on Sunday, @wasnow215

[Conway7305]

The recipe for snow this year is a +PNA and -1-2 sigma NAO.  Until both of those line up it’s gonna be hard.  PNA may go positive around Jan 20th, let’s just hope -NAO can hold on. 

[RIC Airport]

The mid week storm is trending colder. There could be another round of frozen precip, especially on the west side of RIC, before flipping over to rain. Will need to monitor the trends. 

 

[RIC Airport]

8 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

The recipe for snow this year is a +PNA and -1-2 sigma NAO.  Until both of those line up it’s gonna be hard.  PNA may go positive around Jan 20th, let’s just hope -NAO can hold on. 

I agree, tried to explain that yesterday in an earlier post, in case you missed it. That western trough (-PNA) has been a big issue. 

[Conway7305]

1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

I agree, tried to explain that yesterday in an earlier post, in case you missed it. That western trough (-PNA) has been a big issue. 

Hopefully by Jan 20ish we start seeing a positive cycle.  Here is the PNA forecast graph 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ldub23]

35 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Hopefully by Jan 20ish we start seeing a positive cycle.  Here is the PNA forecast graph 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hopefully it  changes  on the  20th but  on the GFS the  cold  just  can never get  here. At  least  we  cant  have a  january thaw this  year. To have a thaw you  have to be frozen first.

[RIC Airport]

2 hours ago, Conway7305 said:

Hopefully by Jan 20ish we start seeing a positive cycle.  Here is the PNA forecast graph 

 

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Hopefully it  changes  on the  20th but  on the GFS the  cold  just  can never get  here. At  least  we  cant  have a  january thaw this  year. To have a thaw you  have to be frozen 

I looked at the 12Z EPS, and while it's moving in the right direction, it's still not close to where we need it to be. However, anything is better than nothing. If we can get a ridge with the correct orientation, timed with a shortwave, it could potentially push the storm track further south and east, while also bringing in colder air. This would make us less prone to experiencing mid-level torching with the incoming storms from the south.

[ldub23]

This  is a good  look. Its dry  but  cold. Cant have winter storms without this.

 

[RIC Airport]

13 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

This  is a good  look. Its dry  but  cold. Cant have winter storms without this.

Yup, I was just looking at that. I'll take a look at the ensembles as they come in. But, the end of the GFS had highs in the low-mid 20s two days in a row. 

 

 

[RIC Airport]

27 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

This  is a good  look. Its dry  but  cold. Cant have winter storms without this.

The PV drops out of Canada and into the plains and the cold eventually moves east. Hopefully there after there is moisture headed our way. Not giving up on the winter, @Conway7305

 

[RIC Airport]

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

This  is a good  look. Its dry  but  cold. Cant have winter storms without this.

The ensemble mean was in the low-mid 40s for that day. But, you can see a handful of members are torching us, which is probably skewing the mean too warm. 

Also, you can see on the last map that we are still warm in the east for that period, but it's clear that the warm departures are being erased by then.

 

 

[Stormpc]

Received .32 of rain overnight.  Had some sleet mixed in during heaviest.  Got loud around the windows around 2am. Looks like a parade of rain events for the next 10 days for our area. Then maybe some winter cold after. All good. Can use a break from the rain though.

[SoCoWx]

I’m starting to get concerned that even in a Nino, we can’t seem to score winter weather systems.

I’ve been wondering for awhile, if central Virginia and especially the Tidewater have passed some kind of threshold with regards to changing climate where it just doesn’t really snow anymore.

[JB Fins]

I would be lying if I said that had not crossed my mind every winter for that past 7.  It really feels that way, and not just Central VA and Tidewater, but along the whole I-95 corridor.

It only makes sense tracking ocean temps, it takes a lot off the table for us.  I am just a weather geek, not my profession but it's really hard to ignore the reality that has been presented. 

I hope we can still get the occasional lucky thread the needle type scenario.

[RIC Airport]

To cheer everyone up, today marks the sixth anniversary of the blizzard that struck E NC and VA, which was the second blizzard to hit Hampton Roads in less than a year. The storm, which was verified as a blizzard at ORF recorded 10.3” of snow. However, due to the storm's track, Richmond only recorded 3.0”. This event was the eleventh biggest snowstorm on record at ORF since snowfall records began in 1891.

This period featured one of the coldest stretches we have experienced since the winter of 1995-96. On January 7, 2018, the temperature in RIC dropped to -3°F, the first time it had dropped below 0°F since the year 2000. Richmond remained below freezing for four consecutive days, but it would have been eight days in a row had it not been for hitting 34°F one day in the middle. It is worth noting that the most consecutive days below freezing at RIC was twelve days back in the winter of 1935-36.

Here are some images I saved.

 

 

 

 

 

Additionally, yesterday marked the anniversary of the January 3, 2002, snowstorm that affected our area. Richmond and Norfolk both experienced a decent snowstorm with 7.7 inches and 7.2 inches of snowfall, respectively. It is noteworthy that this storm occurred during an otherwise mild winter season throughout the east. 

[eaglesin2011]

Right now its just not cold enough to have anything last for more then a few hours around here...

We may get lucky over the weekend & get a quick dusting( only to have it washed away)but most likely it wont even turn over long enough to do even that ..... 

 

The 15th-20th looks to be at least cold enough air for something to happen... So we will see....

[ldub23]

29 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

To cheer everyone up, today marks the sixth anniversary of the blizzard that struck E NC and VA, which was the second blizzard to hit Hampton Roads in less than a year. The storm, which was verified as a blizzard at ORF recorded 10.3” of snow. However, due to the storm's track, Richmond only recorded 3.0”. This event was the eleventh biggest snowstorm on record at ORF since snowfall records began in 1891.

This period featured one of the coldest stretches we have experienced since the winter of 1995-96. On January 7, 2018, the temperature in RIC dropped to -3°F, the first time it had dropped below 0°F since the year 2000. Richmond remained below freezing for four consecutive days, but it would have been eight days in a row had it not been for hitting 34°F one day in the middle. It is worth noting that the most consecutive days below freezing at RIC was twelve days back in the winter of 1935-36.

 

Here are some images I saved. 

 

 

 

Additionally, yesterday marked the anniversary of the January 3, 2002, snowstorm that affected our area. Richmond and Norfolk both experienced a decent snowstorm with 7.7 inches and 7.2 inches of snowfall, respectively. It is noteworthy that this storm occurred during an otherwise mild winter season throughout the east. 

 

Thanks, if  only that  would  happen again

 

better than nothing

 

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, SoCoWx said:

I’m starting to get concerned that even in a Nino, we can’t seem to score winter weather systems.

I’ve been wondering for awhile, if central Virginia and especially the Tidewater have passed some kind of threshold with regards to changing climate where it just doesn’t really snow anymore.

1 hour ago, JB Fins said:

I would be lying if I said that had not crossed my mind every winter for that past 7.  It really feels that way, and not just Central VA and Tidewater, but along the whole I-95 corridor.

It only makes sense tracking ocean temps, it takes a lot off the table for us.  I am just a weather geek, not my profession but it's really hard to ignore the reality that has been presented. 

I hope we can still get the occasional lucky thread the needle type scenario.

11 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Right now its just not cold enough to have anything last for more then a few hours around here...

We may get lucky over the weekend & get a quick dusting only to have it washed away but most likely it wont even turn over long enough to do even that ..... 

 

The 15th-20th looks to be at least cold enough air for something to happen... So we will see....

There no question, we used to be a legit snow town. Can you imagine some of these headlines today? 

[RIC Airport]

3 hours ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Right now its just not cold enough to have anything last for more then a few hours around here...

We may get lucky over the weekend & get a quick dusting( only to have it washed away)but most likely it wont even turn over long enough to do even that ..... 

 

The 15th-20th looks to be at least cold enough air for something to happen... So we will see....

Definitely a signal on the EPS for that time. EPS says we can expect a temporary rise in temperatures ahead of the cutters next week, followed by a subsequent downward trend. While there may be some snow opportunities, they remain more limited for Hampton Roads. The snowfall mean was one of the more depressing maps I've seen this winter. And that's even skewed by the few members that still give us accumulations this weekend. 

 

 

[RIC Airport]

5 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Thanks, if  only that  would  happen again

I found these, too for your area. When I have time at some point, I'll look for more. 

[RIC Airport]

The 18Z 3K NAM has precip arriving into the Richmond metro between 6am and 8am on Saturday. That is the window where freezing rain could fall before changing to rain and tapering off Saturday evening after sunset. However, the western portions of Powhatan and Goochland and areas north of about Fredericksburg could take until noon before changing over. Precip totals look to exceed an inch in most places.

 

 

[RIC Airport]

I was looking at the 18z GFS, and of course, this is an OP run way out there, but hopefully, it's indicative of opportunities later in the month. 

At 294, you can see the energy moving into CONUS in the SW, but then it gets squashed after it gets to about AR/LA.

You can watch the PV lobe squash it. If that PV is weaker and that -NAO block relaxes more and is a bit farther north than is depicted here, perhaps that wave can develop and swing south of us, and moisture override with temps in the 20s here, and we get like a 1/30/2010, which came about in a similar way. 

Wishful thinking and using an 18z OP past 300 hours for analysis...so.  But, wanted to be positive for the likes of others like @ldub23, @eaglesin2011, @Conway7305, @SoCoWx, @Stormpc.

 

[RIC Airport]

20 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

You can watch the PV lobe squash it. If that PV is weaker and that -NAO block relaxes more and is a bit farther north than is depicted here, perhaps that wave can develop and swing south of us, and moisture override with temps in the 20s here, and we get like a 1/30/2010, which came about in a similar way. 

The January 30, 2010, storm was a southern slider that occurred with a very cold airmass in place. Richmond recorded 10.0" of snow with 1-2 inches per hour rates and was only around 20°F during the height of the event, one of the coldest storms we had seen in a while.