Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[RIC Airport]

2 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

 

Here are the charts from the 18Z GEFS for RIC and ORF. Although there are signals around the 14th, the 1/6 to 1/7 event is the best snow opportunity. At hour 384, this troughing tendency is still out west, so the bulk of the cold only occasionally glances eastward. There are ways to work with this and we can still get chances, just makes things harder. But, can certainly change though. 

The EPS, on the other hand, was a much better look at the end of the run.

 

 

 

[RIC Airport]

The 18z Euro Ensembles only goes out to hour 144 (Sunday at 1pm). Some encouraging signs, but still way too many misses, @Conway7305, @wasnow215

[Stormpc]

Just had a quick burst of light snow and grapple mixed in with the last shower that came through. First of the year (season too) on the coast. 

[RIC Airport]

17 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Just had a quick burst of light snow and grapple mixed in with the last shower that came through. First of the year (season too) on the coast. 

Nice, definitely an accomplishment!!! 

[RIC Airport]

Meanwhile, the 00z GFS was awful. Like I said in an earlier post today, we'll have these fluctuations with the rain/snow line and track of the low.  

 

 

 

[RIC Airport]

00Z GEFS

[wasnow215]

Models trending warmer and warmer. 

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, wasnow215 said:

Models trending warmer and warmer. 

Yea, just  no cold air anywhere.

[Rhino16]

This is over for us. I just don’t see that big of a change in modeling this close to it. Was thinking this yesterday.

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, Rhino16 said:

This is over for us. I just don’t see that big of a change in modeling this close to it. Was thinking this yesterday.

The  problem with this storm was  no cold air. Seasonal isnt good enough here. Here  is  1 day after the storm and  there  is zero cold air  behind it. I  know the  models show  cold air  coming but  it  never seems to get here.

 

[RIC Airport]

6 hours ago, ldub23 said:

The  problem with this storm was  no cold air. Seasonal isnt good enough here. Here  is  1 day after the storm and  there  is zero cold air  behind it. I  know the  models show  cold air  coming but  it  never seems to get here.

Below are two maps from the GEFS and EPS.

I like the -NAO consistency. The last time we saw that was years ago. The -NAO is probably preventing us from torching like we did much of last winter. When you flip through the run, you can tell that pesky SE Ridge is just lurking down below Cuba. We also have an active southern stream, another component absent in recent winters.

We need to get rid of the troughing tendency in the West and a better mechanism to deliver cold in the east. Storms tend to cut to the Midwest and Ohio Valley with that orientation. Or indeed, farther north and west than is ideal for I-95. The end of the EPS was better than the GEFS, but certainly no amplified western ridge. We can still get a sneaky event with the right timing and placement of other features, but it complicates things.

There is still plenty of time left, and remember, March IS a snow month, too. 

GEFS 

 

EPS

 

It also doesn't help that the CONUS has not had much snow this winter, which doesn't help build and sustain cold like we've seen in Russia. 

 

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

Below are two maps from the GEFS and EPS.

I like the -NAO consistency. The last time we saw that was years ago. The -NAO is probably preventing us from torching like we did much of last winter. When you flip through the run, you can tell that pesky SE Ridge is just lurking down below Cuba. We also have an active southern stream, another component absent in recent winters.

We need to get rid of the troughing tendency in the West and a better mechanism to deliver cold in the east. Storms tend to cut to the Midwest and Ohio Valley with that orientation. Or indeed, farther north and west than is ideal for I-95. The end of the EPS was better than the GEFS, but certainly no amplified western ridge. We can still get a sneaky event with the right timing and placement of other features, but it complicates things.

There is still plenty of time left, and remember, March IS a snow month, too. 

GEFS 

 

EPS

 

It also doesn't help that the CONUS has not had much snow this winter, which doesn't help build and sustain cold like we've seen in Russia. 

 

 

 

Thats all nice  but  here we are jan 18 and  its seasonally cool with no sign of arctic air taking  over for  weeks at a time. At some  point its going to have to turn cold and stay cold. The euro 360 map doesnt  match up with this. And  between now and then we will have  2  storms cutting well west  of the  mountains and we will be talking about severe weather  instead  of  cold

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cutter  num 2

 

[RIC Airport]

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Thats all nice  but  here we are jan 18 and  its seasonally cool with no sign of arctic air taking  over for  weeks at a time. At some  point its going to have to turn cold and stay cold. The euro 360 map doesnt  match up with this. And  between now and then we will have  2  storms cutting well west  of the  mountains and we will be talking about severe weather  instead  of  cold

Cutter  num 2

I understand that, and I just tried to explain why we are seeing the cutters, why it’s been tough getting cold in our part of the country, and what needs to change as we monitor the models.

Plus, so much can change beyond about 200 hours. For instance, the below 00Z GFS run from Christmas Day was torching us with highs around 70°F this Saturday when, recently, we have been tracking the potential for a snowstorm. We now know we won’t be anywhere near 70°F this Saturday.

In the future, you should use the ensembles, not the operational ones at that range, and then try to identify trends.  Ensembles are still subject to fluctuations, but using them for analysis is better. As you can see below, unlike the 12Z GEFS, the 18Z GEFS looks closer to the end of the 12Z EPS. I like the higher heights showing up in the southwest, and temperatures, while not extremely cold, are still slightly below average in the East. Hour 384 below could indicate things transitioning to a better pattern later on.  Again, if we change the overall flow and increase ridging in the west, it'll be better for snow opportunities here and less likely to see cutter after cutter.

However, I agree that the low to mid-40s aren’t cold in January, but once we get into the heart of winter, things could work out if it's just "cold enough."

 

[RIC Airport]

FWIW, the 18z EPS had one really good hit for RIC, so maybe there is still a chance. 

 

[Conway7305]

Will take P5 please!  

[Conway7305]

Good news is, the 18z GFS lost the KY low so that may help us in time if storm is purely a coastal.  Will help draw down some colder air 

[RIC Airport]

46 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Good news is, the 18z GFS lost the KY low so that may help us in time if storm is purely a coastal.  Will help draw down some colder air 

84 hour NAM suggests there could be some mid level warmth issues for many. 

 

[RIC Airport]

The 00Z GFS was a little colder this run, more favorable for CHO up to DCA. 

[snowchill]

Hopefully the trend continues tomorrow!!❄️❄️

[RIC Airport]

7 hours ago, snowchill said:

Hopefully the trend continues tomorrow!!❄️❄️

6Z was a step back, even for CHO and DCA. Those mid-level thermals remain an issue. Look at how warm it gets at 850mb as the low approaches from the south. 

GFS also has the fastest arrival of the precip with surface temperatures just above freezing (35°F) as the precip arrives, but the dewpoint will be 26°F at the time. GFS has the dewpoint below freezing at RIC for 3 hours (7am-10am) so that 35°F surface temp will drop below freezing when the precip starts. 

So even in Richmond the precip will probably be frozen (snow or mix) for 2-3 hours before we flip over to rain. 

[wasnow215]

23 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Here is Wakefield's morning discussion.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 AM EST Wednesday...

The latest 03/00Z guidance (both ensemble and deterministic)
continues to show decent agreement with respect the the low
pressure system riding NE from the Gulf coast across the deep
south early Sat, with secondary low development starting along
the SE coast by daybreak Sat morning. The pattern looks mainly
like a "Miller B" setup with the initial sfc low tracking along
the Appalachians and weakening while this 2nd low deepens across
the Carolina coastal plain during the day on Sat, becoming the
dominant low and strengthening more rapidly late Sat/Sat night
as it moves to the Delmarva coast, and offshore Sat night.
This setup tends to favor mixed precip or ice rather than snow
over W/NW portions of the local area as the warm nose aloft
surges north through most of the CWA by later morning/early
aftn. The primary sfc high will be across Quebec Sat/Sat night
(as the local sfc high off the mid Atlc coast weakens). The
cold air supply will likely be too weak for the AKQ CWA, though
far NW sections of the FA typically do not warm up as fast as
the models suggest (and will be interesting to see as we get
higher res models closer to the event that tend to handle the BL
cold air better). Overall, the forecast remains fairly similar
with as the CAD will initially be strong enough for temps to be
below freezing when the precip begins along and W of I-95 (and
probably a little to the east of I-95 as well). As such, have
likely to categorical PoPs for freezing rain/sleet along and W
of the I-95 corridor and to the S of I-64 early Sat morning. To
the N of I-64, thermal profiles support more of a sleet/snow mix
initially. By later morning, mainly sleet and freezing rain will
spread N while low levels warm from the E/SE. By aftn, all areas
should be rain with the exception of the far NW where a wintry
mix may linger. There is some potential for a brief transition
back to snow in the NW Piedmont Sat night as cooler air wraps
around the low, but confidence is low and the trends are for a
faster dry slot Sat evening so this looks to be rather unlikely.
Details will continue to be refined as we get closer to the
event. Total QPF from the system of 0.50-1.00" is expected. As
for the ensembles, the GEFS is the highest regarding snowfall
amounts across the far NW while the ECMWF (EPS) has trended
down to only 1-2" snow over our far NW. These ensembles use a
10:1 SLR which is likely too high in this event, but certainly
possible that Louisa/Fluvanna Co. could see an inch of snow
before mixing with sleet and/or changing to rain. A light ice
accumulation looks most likely from South Hill to Farmville
before the changeover to plain rain. For the I-95 corridor/
metro RIC, expect the initial period of wintry mix to change
rather quickly. such that the impact will be brief. Have
undercut the NBM for highs Sat for the W 1/2 of the area, highs
in the mid- upper 30s NW, 40s for the I-95 corridor, with upper
50s SE.

How long do you think the rain will hang on Sunday morning on the west side @RIC Airport? And will it be windy Sunday morning?

[RIC Airport]

49 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

How long do you think the rain will hang on Sunday morning on the west side @RIC Airport? And will it be windy Sunday morning?

The NAM is starting to come within range, and eventually the HRRR, so timing could change. But based on the 6z GFS, this is only looking like a Saturday event. Precip arrives around 7am and ends around 7pm. 

GFS dropped 1 to 1.5" of rain.

[RIC Airport]

I am seeing wind gusts 20-30mph for C VA on Sunday, @wasnow215

[Conway7305]

The recipe for snow this year is a +PNA and -1-2 sigma NAO.  Until both of those line up it’s gonna be hard.  PNA may go positive around Jan 20th, let’s just hope -NAO can hold on. 

[RIC Airport]

The mid week storm is trending colder. There could be another round of frozen precip, especially on the west side of RIC, before flipping over to rain. Will need to monitor the trends. 

 

[RIC Airport]

8 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

The recipe for snow this year is a +PNA and -1-2 sigma NAO.  Until both of those line up it’s gonna be hard.  PNA may go positive around Jan 20th, let’s just hope -NAO can hold on. 

I agree, tried to explain that yesterday in an earlier post, in case you missed it. That western trough (-PNA) has been a big issue. 

[Conway7305]

1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

I agree, tried to explain that yesterday in an earlier post, in case you missed it. That western trough (-PNA) has been a big issue. 

Hopefully by Jan 20ish we start seeing a positive cycle.  Here is the PNA forecast graph 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ldub23]

35 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Hopefully by Jan 20ish we start seeing a positive cycle.  Here is the PNA forecast graph 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hopefully it  changes  on the  20th but  on the GFS the  cold  just  can never get  here. At  least  we  cant  have a  january thaw this  year. To have a thaw you  have to be frozen first.

[RIC Airport]

2 hours ago, Conway7305 said:

Hopefully by Jan 20ish we start seeing a positive cycle.  Here is the PNA forecast graph 

 

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Hopefully it  changes  on the  20th but  on the GFS the  cold  just  can never get  here. At  least  we  cant  have a  january thaw this  year. To have a thaw you  have to be frozen 

I looked at the 12Z EPS, and while it's moving in the right direction, it's still not close to where we need it to be. However, anything is better than nothing. If we can get a ridge with the correct orientation, timed with a shortwave, it could potentially push the storm track further south and east, while also bringing in colder air. This would make us less prone to experiencing mid-level torching with the incoming storms from the south.

[ldub23]

This  is a good  look. Its dry  but  cold. Cant have winter storms without this.