TampaMan Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 On 2/19/2025 at 7:40 PM, mikeeng92 said: We can still hit 3-4"! Expand Ain’t happening man, sadly. As soon as these bands from the west come through it’s all over. I have zero confidence in that ULL tomorrow as well. Can’t win them all, or any for that matter in Richmond. I’ll be in Tampa this time next year, was hoping for something decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 On 2/19/2025 at 6:45 PM, RVAman said: He’s so full of shit. Expand He had to wave the white flag. Here's the issue and have been following and tracking storms since really the year 2000. We talk about how mesos....NAM (both), SREF, GRAF, HRRR and the like...are better inside 48 hours than the globals. They're not though. I said to @RVAmanlast night I think, that for the HRRR, I've never ever seen it be right. Consistently has too much qpf. So with DT? He REALLY hugged the NAM and SREF and then it became a frenzy with WRIC and the other maps with upwards of 9-12". Sadly I fell into it too to a point and hence changed my 2-4" to 4-8". You know why??? Because I didn't think so many professionals and "experts" and even Wakefield with 5-6" that they had yesterday could be that wrong. I should've stayed with what the globals were showing. Especially the EURO (as of 2 days ago). Low qpf can't produce high snow totals. Can't see the grass here now. Have about 2.5". I should've stayed 2-4" SMH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 19 Author Share Posted February 19 On 2/19/2025 at 7:40 PM, overcautionisbad said: Zach Daniel updated his map, but Im not sure we'll even get that Expand Hard to against the King. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 On 2/19/2025 at 7:42 PM, RIC Airport said: Hard to against the King. Expand Well, the king was about as wrong as it gets Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 On 2/19/2025 at 7:44 PM, overcautionisbad said: Well, the king was about as wrong as it gets Saturday Expand The King always does well with snow, always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 On 2/19/2025 at 7:42 PM, RIC Airport said: Hard to against the King. Expand Most models eventually adjusted to that late Sunday night Euro run that had everyone gasping. It was discounted as being an outlier. Then everything over the next 36 hours moved in that direction. Even the GFS finally late last night and this morning. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 On 2/19/2025 at 7:46 PM, RVAman said: The King always does well with snow, always. Expand Within 72 hours, but not outside of that apparently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 On 2/19/2025 at 7:42 PM, wasnow215 said: He had to wave the white flag. Here's the issue and have been following and tracking storms since really the year 2000. We talk about how mesos....NAM (both), SREF, GRAF, HRRR and the like...are better inside 48 hours than the globals. They're not though. I said to @RVAmanlast night I think, that for the HRRR, I've never ever seen it be right. Consistently has too much qpf. So with DT? He REALLY hugged the NAM and SREF and then it became a frenzy with WRIC and the other maps with upwards of 9-12". Sadly I fell into it too to a point and hence changed my 2-4" to 4-8". You know why??? Because I didn't think so many professionals and "experts" and even Wakefield with 5-6" that they had yesterday. I should've stayed with what the globals were showing. Especially the EURO (as of 2 days ago). Low qpf can't produce high snow totals. Can't see the grass here now. Have about 2.5". I should've stayed 2-4" SMH. Expand DT may have rolled with the NAM and SREF but by the time he put out his 6pm (7:30 pm) last call the short-range NAM and SREFs had already determined our fate. I cannot stick up for that man, he purposely put out maps for monetary value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 On 2/19/2025 at 7:47 PM, overcautionisbad said: Within 72 hours, but not outside of that apparently Expand Euro AI for the win IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Anyway, I'm logging off to enjoy the last hour of snowfall before it goes away. It was fun (ish) everyone. Go make a snow angel, at least we can do that. Til' next time, if there is one. If this was the last snow event this winter, I appreciate each and every one of you and hope you guys score big time next winter. I'll be in Florida permanently. I'll miss this hobby. See ya! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 5 or 6 still possible here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 On 2/19/2025 at 7:49 PM, RVASnowLover said: Euro AI for the win IMO Expand Anyone got a few pics of its forecasts leading up to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 On 2/19/2025 at 7:49 PM, RVAman said: Anyway, I'm logging off to enjoy the last hour of snowfall before it goes away. It was fun (ish) everyone. Go make a snow angel, at least we can do that. Til' next time, if there is one. If this was the last snow event this went, I appreciate each and every one of you and hope you guys score big time next winter. I'll be in Florida permanently. I'll miss this hobby. See ya! Expand You'll probably get one down there before here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 On 2/19/2025 at 7:50 PM, overcautionisbad said: Anyone got a few pics of its forecasts leading up to this? Expand I don’t but for days it had the SEVA hit. It may have been a bit too far east but it had the idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 On 2/19/2025 at 7:47 PM, TampaMan said: DT may have rolled with the NAM and SREF but by the time he put out his 6pm (7:30 pm) last call the short-range NAM and SREFs had already determined our fate. I cannot stick up for that man, he purposely put out maps for monetary value. Expand Oh I'm definitely not sticking up for him I'm just saying why he busted so bad. But those had way more QPF even later those models than the European model did and later on GFS CMC etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 EURO was great too once it hitched on that the storm would not phase. It's been 2 days I believe or 2 1/2 with minimal totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Yeah, I saw the 6Z NAM and it was still like 5-6 inches back around 4 am. My lesson from this is I will ignore everything until 72 hours then look at the Euro going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 On 2/19/2025 at 7:47 PM, overcautionisbad said: Within 72 hours, but not outside of that apparently Expand But models nail storms more than 3 days out. NAM had 12" YESTERDAY at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 On 2/19/2025 at 7:57 PM, overcautionisbad said: Yeah, I saw the 6Z NAM and it was still like 5-6 inches back around 4 am Expand 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 @RIC Airport thank you for everything you have done. My time is done here. All of you take care. Adios! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Now we can all hunt for our next opportunity. Prob between March 2- March 8. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1.5" Here near the Airport now. Could squeak out another 0.5" for it wraps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 19 Author Share Posted February 19 On 2/19/2025 at 7:44 PM, overcautionisbad said: Well, the king was about as wrong as it gets Saturday Expand That's right, along with the others. But when it shifted SE, it was consistent with this idea. Way too many placed too much faith in the western outliers and have been adjusting east ever since. Remember when Matt Dinardo went 9-12" for Richmond 24 hours ago? It was also bad enough that within hours of him doing a live stream about his changes, with hundreds of views, the NWS upgraded the RIC area to warning for only 3-6". AKQ did much better than the Richmond TV stations. Oh, and he was the main one a few days ago telling people to listen to him and not the "social mediaologists" . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Prob about a 1 1/2 here in my part of Glen Allen.. See what the Upper Low produces tomorrow.. A shame they couldn’t come together (another just miss for this area) owell still better than nothing … 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 On 2/19/2025 at 8:07 PM, RIC Airport said: That's right, along with the others. But when it shifted SE, it was consistent with this idea. Way too many placed too much faith in the western outliers and have been adjusting east ever since. Remember when Matt Dinardo went 9-12" for Richmond 24 hours ago? It was also bad enough that within hours of him doing a live stream about his changes, with hundreds of views, the NWS upgraded the RIC area to warning for only 3-6". AKQ did much better than the Richmond TV stations. Oh, and he was the main one a few days ago telling people to listen to him and not the "social mediaologists" . Expand Exactly @RIC Airport many TV Mets around here were honking yesterday. That's why we all got so interested again. But again they got caught up in the NAM, GRAF, SREF's. ALL failed and they generally do. Like the HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Yeah, credit to AKQ as I think they were hesitant to hoist the Warning as far north as they did to include RIC Metro. Probably a bit going back and forth whether a WWA would suffice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Anyone down in Chester? It’s coming down really good here and I seem to be on outer edge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 We got to remember tv mets work for stations selling ads and clicks as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 On 2/19/2025 at 8:28 PM, Rvarookie said: Anyone down in Chester? It’s coming down really good here and I seem to be on outer edge Expand Still good in 23120 Midlo. But looks like back edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 On 2/19/2025 at 8:28 PM, Rvarookie said: Anyone down in Chester? It’s coming down really good here and I seem to be on outer edge Expand It’s really coming down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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