TampaMan Posted Wednesday at 07:42 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:42 PM Just now, mikeeng92 said: We can still hit 3-4"! Ain’t happening man, sadly. As soon as these bands from the west come through it’s all over. I have zero confidence in that ULL tomorrow as well. Can’t win them all, or any for that matter in Richmond. I’ll be in Tampa this time next year, was hoping for something decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Wednesday at 07:42 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:42 PM 1 hour ago, RVAman said: He’s so full of shit. He had to wave the white flag. Here's the issue and have been following and tracking storms since really the year 2000. We talk about how mesos....NAM (both), SREF, GRAF, HRRR and the like...are better inside 48 hours than the globals. They're not though. I said to @RVAmanlast night I think, that for the HRRR, I've never ever seen it be right. Consistently has too much qpf. So with DT? He REALLY hugged the NAM and SREF and then it became a frenzy with WRIC and the other maps with upwards of 9-12". Sadly I fell into it too to a point and hence changed my 2-4" to 4-8". You know why??? Because I didn't think so many professionals and "experts" and even Wakefield with 5-6" that they had yesterday could be that wrong. I should've stayed with what the globals were showing. Especially the EURO (as of 2 days ago). Low qpf can't produce high snow totals. Can't see the grass here now. Have about 2.5". I should've stayed 2-4" SMH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Wednesday at 07:42 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 07:42 PM 1 minute ago, overcautionisbad said: Zach Daniel updated his map, but Im not sure we'll even get that Hard to against the King. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted Wednesday at 07:44 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:44 PM 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: Hard to against the King. Well, the king was about as wrong as it gets Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted Wednesday at 07:46 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:46 PM 1 minute ago, overcautionisbad said: Well, the king was about as wrong as it gets Saturday The King always does well with snow, always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted Wednesday at 07:46 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:46 PM 4 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Hard to against the King. Most models eventually adjusted to that late Sunday night Euro run that had everyone gasping. It was discounted as being an outlier. Then everything over the next 36 hours moved in that direction. Even the GFS finally late last night and this morning. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted Wednesday at 07:47 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:47 PM Just now, RVAman said: The King always does well with snow, always. Within 72 hours, but not outside of that apparently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted Wednesday at 07:47 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:47 PM 3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: He had to wave the white flag. Here's the issue and have been following and tracking storms since really the year 2000. We talk about how mesos....NAM (both), SREF, GRAF, HRRR and the like...are better inside 48 hours than the globals. They're not though. I said to @RVAmanlast night I think, that for the HRRR, I've never ever seen it be right. Consistently has too much qpf. So with DT? He REALLY hugged the NAM and SREF and then it became a frenzy with WRIC and the other maps with upwards of 9-12". Sadly I fell into it too to a point and hence changed my 2-4" to 4-8". You know why??? Because I didn't think so many professionals and "experts" and even Wakefield with 5-6" that they had yesterday. I should've stayed with what the globals were showing. Especially the EURO (as of 2 days ago). Low qpf can't produce high snow totals. Can't see the grass here now. Have about 2.5". I should've stayed 2-4" SMH. DT may have rolled with the NAM and SREF but by the time he put out his 6pm (7:30 pm) last call the short-range NAM and SREFs had already determined our fate. I cannot stick up for that man, he purposely put out maps for monetary value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted Wednesday at 07:49 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:49 PM 1 minute ago, overcautionisbad said: Within 72 hours, but not outside of that apparently Euro AI for the win IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted Wednesday at 07:49 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:49 PM Anyway, I'm logging off to enjoy the last hour of snowfall before it goes away. It was fun (ish) everyone. Go make a snow angel, at least we can do that. Til' next time, if there is one. If this was the last snow event this winter, I appreciate each and every one of you and hope you guys score big time next winter. I'll be in Florida permanently. I'll miss this hobby. See ya! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted Wednesday at 07:49 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:49 PM 5 or 6 still possible here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted Wednesday at 07:50 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:50 PM 1 minute ago, RVASnowLover said: Euro AI for the win IMO Anyone got a few pics of its forecasts leading up to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted Wednesday at 07:51 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:51 PM 1 minute ago, RVAman said: Anyway, I'm logging off to enjoy the last hour of snowfall before it goes away. It was fun (ish) everyone. Go make a snow angel, at least we can do that. Til' next time, if there is one. If this was the last snow event this went, I appreciate each and every one of you and hope you guys score big time next winter. I'll be in Florida permanently. I'll miss this hobby. See ya! You'll probably get one down there before here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted Wednesday at 07:52 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:52 PM 1 minute ago, overcautionisbad said: Anyone got a few pics of its forecasts leading up to this? I don’t but for days it had the SEVA hit. It may have been a bit too far east but it had the idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Wednesday at 07:55 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:55 PM 7 minutes ago, TampaMan said: DT may have rolled with the NAM and SREF but by the time he put out his 6pm (7:30 pm) last call the short-range NAM and SREFs had already determined our fate. I cannot stick up for that man, he purposely put out maps for monetary value. Oh I'm definitely not sticking up for him I'm just saying why he busted so bad. But those had way more QPF even later those models than the European model did and later on GFS CMC etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Wednesday at 07:57 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:57 PM EURO was great too once it hitched on that the storm would not phase. It's been 2 days I believe or 2 1/2 with minimal totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted Wednesday at 07:57 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:57 PM Yeah, I saw the 6Z NAM and it was still like 5-6 inches back around 4 am. My lesson from this is I will ignore everything until 72 hours then look at the Euro going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Wednesday at 07:58 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:58 PM 10 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said: Within 72 hours, but not outside of that apparently But models nail storms more than 3 days out. NAM had 12" YESTERDAY at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Wednesday at 07:58 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:58 PM 1 minute ago, overcautionisbad said: Yeah, I saw the 6Z NAM and it was still like 5-6 inches back around 4 am 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted Wednesday at 07:59 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:59 PM @RIC Airport thank you for everything you have done. My time is done here. All of you take care. Adios! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Wednesday at 08:02 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:02 PM Now we can all hunt for our next opportunity. Prob between March 2- March 8. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted Wednesday at 08:02 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:02 PM 1.5" Here near the Airport now. Could squeak out another 0.5" for it wraps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Wednesday at 08:07 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 08:07 PM 23 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said: Well, the king was about as wrong as it gets Saturday That's right, along with the others. But when it shifted SE, it was consistent with this idea. Way too many placed too much faith in the western outliers and have been adjusting east ever since. Remember when Matt Dinardo went 9-12" for Richmond 24 hours ago? It was also bad enough that within hours of him doing a live stream about his changes, with hundreds of views, the NWS upgraded the RIC area to warning for only 3-6". AKQ did much better than the Richmond TV stations. Oh, and he was the main one a few days ago telling people to listen to him and not the "social mediaologists" . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted Wednesday at 08:10 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:10 PM Prob about a 1 1/2 here in my part of Glen Allen.. See what the Upper Low produces tomorrow.. A shame they couldn’t come together (another just miss for this area) owell still better than nothing … 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Wednesday at 08:20 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:20 PM 11 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: That's right, along with the others. But when it shifted SE, it was consistent with this idea. Way too many placed too much faith in the western outliers and have been adjusting east ever since. Remember when Matt Dinardo went 9-12" for Richmond 24 hours ago? It was also bad enough that within hours of him doing a live stream about his changes, with hundreds of views, the NWS upgraded the RIC area to warning for only 3-6". AKQ did much better than the Richmond TV stations. Oh, and he was the main one a few days ago telling people to listen to him and not the "social mediaologists" . Exactly @RIC Airport many TV Mets around here were honking yesterday. That's why we all got so interested again. But again they got caught up in the NAM, GRAF, SREF's. ALL failed and they generally do. Like the HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted Wednesday at 08:23 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:23 PM Yeah, credit to AKQ as I think they were hesitant to hoist the Warning as far north as they did to include RIC Metro. Probably a bit going back and forth whether a WWA would suffice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted Wednesday at 08:28 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:28 PM Anyone down in Chester? It’s coming down really good here and I seem to be on outer edge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted Wednesday at 08:28 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:28 PM We got to remember tv mets work for stations selling ads and clicks as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Wednesday at 08:29 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:29 PM Just now, Rvarookie said: Anyone down in Chester? It’s coming down really good here and I seem to be on outer edge Still good in 23120 Midlo. But looks like back edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted Wednesday at 08:42 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:42 PM 13 minutes ago, Rvarookie said: Anyone down in Chester? It’s coming down really good here and I seem to be on outer edge It’s really coming down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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