PortsmouthWeather Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 minutes ago, RVAman said: I approve this message! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CavalierHoo Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 This storm will be nothing but a dry fart by noon tomorrow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Ok, that argument about Wakefield's own probabilities vs their forecast does make you think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 10 minutes ago, RVAman said: He cut back but still has way too much west of Richmond in the Farmville dryslot. That area has bust written all over it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, Amped said: He cut back but still has way too much west of Richmond in the Farmville dryslot. That area has bust written all over it. His entire map has bust all over it to be honest with you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said: Ok, that argument about Wakefield's own probabilities vs their forecast does make you think Can you elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 SREF looks dryer. Going downhill quickly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CavalierHoo Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: SREF looks dryer. Going downhill quickly That's what I based my official "dry fart" analysis on. Another model that cut totals in half in one run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 minutes ago, RVAman said: Can you elaborate? They gave Richmond a 64% chance of 6 inches or more and gave it 48% chance of 8 inches or more, but forecasted less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, RVAman said: His entire map has bust all over it to be honest with you. Yeah but 4 or 5" in Richmond is okay. That dryslot may struggles to make 1" in some spots. Same in Delaware and Charlottesville. Brutal on a 6" forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 I shall believe the 00z NAM as stated before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 8 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: SREF looks dryer. Going downhill quickly Calm down lol. It’s still showing .2 - .4 for much of central VA which translates to 4-6 inches at 13:1 ratios. Actually it’s showing up pretty much all 0.4 across central VA. That is still 4 inches or more. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 minutes ago, RVAman said: Calm down lol. It’s still showing .2 - .4 for much of central VA which translates to 4-6 inches at 13:1 ratios. Actually it’s showing up pretty much all 0.4 across central VA. That is still 4 inches or more. If it is underestimating at all then those totals go up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 If I’m not mistaken aren’t the 12z and 0z models the most reliable? 06z and 18z have always been steps in between the 12 o’clock hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CavalierHoo Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 8 minutes ago, RVAman said: Calm down lol. It’s still showing .2 - .4 for much of central VA which translates to 4-6 inches at 13:1 ratios. Actually it’s showing up pretty much all 0.4 across central VA. That is still 4 inches or more. true. I got caught up in the optics of it. But I went back and checked all of the relevant guidance and they all show .4+. Thanks for reining me in!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: 21z SREFs vs 15z SREFs I want to point out that this is a 10:1 ratio map. While yes, the totals did decrease a bit we will still be looking at a 13:1, 14:1 or 15:1 ratio. Therefor that 3.3 inches over Richmond could be 4.5-5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 5 minutes ago, RVAman said: If I’m not mistaken aren’t the 12z and 0z models the most reliable? 06z and 18z have always been steps in between the 12 o’clock hours. DT cited some study about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: 21z SREFs vs 15z SREFs Like I said. Seen this movie before plenty of times unfortunately 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, RVASnowLover said: Like I said. Seen this movie before plenty of times unfortunately See my comment. Ratios will not be 10:1. Likely will be 13:1 or up to 15:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 5 minutes ago, RVAman said: See my comment. Ratios will not be 10:1. Likely will be 13:1 or up to 15:1. I get that but there is dryer trend happening as of now. Hope I’m wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Based off the trends. Richmond sees 2-2.5 inches. Mainly from the weak northern stream driven storm that’s basically dying out every run. DT is in trouble unless the NAM saves him and us….lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 There is another window being talked about in early March for next warm cycle to exit and we get another/possibly last window of opportunity before spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, Conway7305 said: 2 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Based off the trends. Richmond sees 2-2.5 inches. Mainly from the weak northern stream driven storm that’s basically dying out every run. DT is in trouble unless the NAM saves him and us….lol We will be okay in Richmond. We will see measurable snow. Not 6 inches but I have to still go with my final call of 3-5 because that is my final call but my gut really tells me 1-3 inches. I think @RIC Airport agrees. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Whatever falls will be snow and stick immediately, so we have that going for us. Just need it to fall for at least 6 hours and we will produce. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick_LeBoof Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Found a nifty visual showing the recent runs off the GFS/NAM/HRRR. 3 runs going back to the 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 You need to place your faith and trust in the NAM. Do you accept the NAM as the your one true short range model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 FWIW the HRRR is much juicier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Courtesy of @RIC Airport Average is 4.6 between all models. These are based off of the 18z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 I saw that plus there is a 2nd wave (ULL) that comes later around hour 36 at least on 18z so I expect it to also add on an inch or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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