wasnow215 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, Conway7305 said: These so called NAM resolution issues earlier. I wonder if it had any bearing on us. Probably not. Will see at 0z. I know the low pressure offshore SC/NC during the storm has been jumping around a LOT. Also intense thunderstorms in the GOM may have robbed some moisture on 18z run. I just really think it picked up the big numbers later than the other models and hence the smaller numbers later also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 13 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said: Guess we'll see tomorrow. One thing is for sure. The airport will measure 2 inches no matter what I would say the airport has been much better as of late and you have none other than our short timer, RIC Airport, to thank as he helped get this corrected. Since the 1996 debacle, I believe he was integral in getting them to move location of their measuring station. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 3 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: These so called NAM resolution issues earlier. I wonder if it had any bearing on us. Probably not. Will see at 0z. I know the low pressure offshore SC/NC during the storm has been jumping around a LOT. Also intense thunderstorms in the GOM may have robbed some moisture on 18z run. GOM? What's that? ..........I kid 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 NWS seems to think western Henrico only needs a WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shadowzone Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, RVAman said: NWS seems to think western Henrico only needs a WWA. So my Sunday tee time at Dominion Club might verify.....fore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 My instinct based on no logic is we won't get anything hardly. Maybe an inch or 2. It just has the feel of previous busts for the area. There are many. If so I'll probably just ignore any talk of snowstorms any further than a day out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just now, overcautionisbad said: My instinct based on no logic is we won't get anything hardly. Maybe an inch or 2. If so I'll probably just ignore any talk of snowstorms any further than a day out. You may be right but data as it shows for now is 3-5 for Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, overcautionisbad said: My instinct based on no logic is we won't get anything hardly. Maybe an inch or 2. If so I'll probably just ignore any talk of snowstorms any further than a day out. Kind of goes against everything your screen name says. Are you trying the old opposite trick? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just now, Stormpc said: Kind of goes against everything your screen name says. Are you trying the old opposite trick? Mentally prepping myself. Lol I have the supplies to deal with a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick_LeBoof Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Does anybody know the last time we had such disagreement in models this close to the event? It's been a wild ride the past 24 hours to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, Dick_LeBoof said: Does anybody know the last time we had such disagreement in models this close to the event? It's been a wild ride the past 24 hours to say the least. What ones are still big? Nothing left more than 5 for RVA is there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick_LeBoof Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: What ones are still big? Nothing left more than 5 for RVA is there? That's fair. The models have consolidated now, but it's within 12 hr of the first flakes falling. I guess I'm surprised with how much the globals swayed leading up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: What ones are still big? Nothing left more than 5 for RVA is there? Think 18z GFS and NAM was 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: What ones are still big? Nothing left more than 5 for RVA is there? NAM and GFS. I think the 12z HRRR also had significant 5-6 numbers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 WAVY 10 forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just now, RVAman said: NAM and GFS. I think the 12z HRRR also had significant 5-6 numbers. They're 6+ sorry but nothing else showing double digits at all. Mesos just olayin catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 DT is doubling down. He says the 18z NAM is bullshit and that the 0z will show that. This dude is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just saw that, here is what he wrote: “For you Weather Geeks out there and sick twisted weather freaks yes I saw the 18z 3KM NAM -- I will be ignoring it completely. Indeed if you take a look at the last four runs of 3km NAM model precipitation amounts at say Richmond for example you get this kind of variation 0z -0.91” 6z-0.51 “ 12z= 0.77” 18z = 0.45. This kind of up and down back and forth with the precipitation amounts in the short Range models are common and it also exists in the GFS Euro and 12km NAM models just to name a few. It is one of those things you have to deal with as a meteorologist. I have absolutely no doubt that when the 0z NAM comes out at 9:00 p.m. it will have increased the moisture in all areas of Central and Eastern Virginia once again.” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Definitely curious to see what NAM does at 00z, 6/18 have been drier than 00/12 over - also feel like I’ve heard there’s not as much data to work with during 6/18 so not as accurate? No idea how true that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 When will his followers realize he says this crap for clicks and engagement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just now, Conway7305 said: Just saw that, here is what he wrote: “For you Weather Geeks out there and sick twisted weather freaks yes I saw the 18z 3KM NAM -- I will be ignoring it completely. Indeed if you take a look at the last four runs of 3km NAM model precipitation amounts at say Richmond for example you get this kind of variation 0z -0.91” 6z-0.51 “ 12z= 0.77” 18z = 0.45. This kind of up and down back and forth with the precipitation amounts in the short Range models are common and it also exists in the GFS Euro and 12km NAM models just to name a few. It is one of those things you have to deal with as a meteorologist. I have absolutely no doubt that when the 0z NAM comes out at 9:00 p.m. it will have increased the moisture in all areas of Central and Eastern Virginia once again.” Wow he's at "mad scientist" stage now. Like shakin his fist towards the sky stage lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 3 minutes ago, RVAman said: When will his followers realize he says this crap for clicks and engagement? Oh God, his ego will be through the roof if he's right. A part of me roots for him. Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 4 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Just saw that, here is what he wrote: “For you Weather Geeks out there and sick twisted weather freaks yes I saw the 18z 3KM NAM -- I will be ignoring it completely. Indeed if you take a look at the last four runs of 3km NAM model precipitation amounts at say Richmond for example you get this kind of variation 0z -0.91” 6z-0.51 “ 12z= 0.77” 18z = 0.45. This kind of up and down back and forth with the precipitation amounts in the short Range models are common and it also exists in the GFS Euro and 12km NAM models just to name a few. It is one of those things you have to deal with as a meteorologist. I have absolutely no doubt that when the 0z NAM comes out at 9:00 p.m. it will have increased the moisture in all areas of Central and Eastern Virginia once again.” Where is this info at? Just looked at FB don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just now, wasnow215 said: Where is this info at? Just looked at FB don't see it. Probably twitter. Or a comment on his other post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Wow he's at "mad scientist" stage now. Like shakin his fist towards the sky stage lol Yet he conveniently ignores the euro this time after preaching about how awesome it is and basically mimicking its output for the last 20 years. Makes no sense this time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said: Oh God, his ego will be through the roof if he's right. A part of me roots for him. Lol I don’t root for him ever. I root for us to get snow, yes. He’s a real asshole and treats his followers horribly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 It is in the thread of his last call map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: Where is this info at? Just looked at FB don't see it. Actually it’s under his last call announcement at 6 pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 I dont need no European computer telling me about my Murica weather!!!! 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, RVAman said: Actually it’s under his last call announcement at 6 pm Thanks just looked but cmon man he's talking about ONE of models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now