RIC Airport Posted Tuesday at 08:17 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 08:17 PM 18z 3K and 12K still gives over 6" as far west as RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted Tuesday at 08:18 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:18 PM Just now, RIC Airport said: Well, 15z SREFS gave a heads up as I indicated earlier Exactly. Could see it coming. Now matches other short term models. Still a big hit for HR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Tuesday at 08:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:19 PM DT keeps hyping this up every fluke run…lol 3-4 inches is my call. Back to reality. Euro is King and will always be king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted Tuesday at 08:20 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:20 PM Please people!! stop with the over dramatics of the main thread it’s been 3 to 6 inches for most of this area for awhile now and that hasn’t changed… Key will be what we get from the upper low & if it pushes us over the 4+ or not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted Tuesday at 08:21 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:21 PM 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 18z 3K and 12K still gives over 6" as far west as RIC. Still a decent event for RIC but don't think we're getting those 8-12" totals here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Tuesday at 08:21 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:21 PM Problem is the low shifted south east by at least 40 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted Tuesday at 08:21 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:21 PM I think we all knew we were tossing that 12z 12K NAM run. It was preposterous. Back to Reality however still a lot of uncertainty I'll be interested in looking at the snow Maps when it's finished. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Tuesday at 08:22 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 08:22 PM Just now, eaglesin2011 said: Please people stop with the over dramatics of the main thread it’s been 3 to 6 inches for most of this area for awhile now and that hasn’t changed… Key will be what we get from the upper low & if it pushes us over the 4+ or not Both 12z 3K and 12K had over a foot for RIC so that drew a lot of emotion and hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CavalierHoo Posted Tuesday at 08:23 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:23 PM 4 minutes ago, RVAman said: Blows my mind how much they hate RIC getting snow. At least those that root against us get nothing now. Makes me feel better. Sorry for the good ones sprinkled in there with 'em. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted Tuesday at 08:25 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:25 PM 5 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Both 12z 3K and 12K had over a foot for RIC so that drew a lot of emotion and hope. lol You should know by now how hard it is to even get 6 inch storms around here… I’ll call it a win with anything more then 3 inches… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted Tuesday at 08:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:27 PM 1 minute ago, eaglesin2011 said: lol You should know by now how hard it is to even get 6 inch storms around here… I'd be happy to get 5-6" here considering how awful we've been last 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted Tuesday at 08:30 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:30 PM I still like the 3K output rather than the 12k. A very nice and sizable snow from Richmond through Hampton Roads and Northeast North carolina. That's a great run. No one should be upset about that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Tuesday at 08:32 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 08:32 PM 11 minutes ago, Stormpc said: I think we all knew we were tossing that 12z 12K NAM run. It was preposterous. Back to Reality however still a lot of uncertainty I'll be interested in looking at the snow Maps when it's finished. 11 minutes ago, Stormpc said: I think we all knew we were tossing that 12z 12K NAM run. It was preposterous. Back to Reality however still a lot of uncertainty I'll be interested in looking at the snow Maps when it's finished. 9 minutes ago, CavalierHoo said: At least those that root against us get nothing now. Makes me feel better. Sorry for the good ones sprinkled in there with 'em. 7 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: lol You should know by now how hard it is to even get 6 inch storms around here… 5 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: I'd be happy to get 5-6" here considering how awful we've been last 5 years. Here is the final 18z 3K map, still a solid hit for most if verified. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted Tuesday at 08:34 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:34 PM Rooting for you all! Bring it home. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted Tuesday at 08:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:35 PM Waiting for a new AFD from AKQ. They pushed one out half an hour ago but it wasn't updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted Tuesday at 08:36 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:36 PM 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Here is the final 18z 3K map, still a solid hit for most if verified. Looks like the ULL dries up a bit as it approaches RIC. That will affect totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted Tuesday at 08:36 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:36 PM Just now, chris624wx said: Waiting for a new AFD from AKQ. They pushed one out half an hour ago but it wasn't updated. There it is! 475 FXUS61 KAKQ 182032 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 332 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A significant winter storm will impact the area from Wednesday through Thursday. Dry but very cold weather is expected Thursday night. Temperatures will moderate through the weekend, while dry conditions prevail. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... As of 332 PM EST Tuesday... Key Message: - Dry tonight with lows mainly in the 20s, as Arctic high pressure extends to the SE. A quiet night is on tap for the local area ahead of tomorrow's winter storm. A strong high is centered over the Northern Plans and Southern Canada, with ridging extending through our area. The pressure gradient is relatively weak except for across the Eastern Shore. Winds are generally out of the northeast, with some locations seeing variable wind directions, and speeds are at or below 10 mph inland. Winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph are being measured on the Eastern Shore. GOES Visible highlights a layer of thin upper-clouds over portions of our forecast area. Temperatures are in the 40s in most communities, with communities in the Eastern Shore still sitting in the 30s. Tonight, a northern stream shortwave will track eastward towards our area and cloud cover will increase and thicken in response. Precipitation associated with this shortwave will remain west of our area before ramping up tomorrow. Temperatures will drop into the 20s, so another chilly night is in the forecast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 332 PM EST Tuesday... Key Messages: - Forecast confidence continues to increase for a significant winter storm to impact southeast portions of the area Wednesday into Thursday. - Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for a majority of the forecast area, with Winter Weather Advisories in effect for the northernmost counties including Dorchester A northern stream shortwave will approach the area on Wednesday morning. An overrunning band associated with this feature will reach the northern half of the forecast area tomorrow morning between 8-11 am. A southern stream shortwave will be tracking just to our south by mid-afternoon tomorrow, which is when snowfall rates will really begin to ramp up. There will be a period where there is only moderate snowfall across the northern and central portions of our area before the northern stream shortwave transfers its energy to the southern one. As this occurs, conditions especially across SE VA and NE NC will deteriorate rapidly. A strong f-gen band looks to set up by tomorrow afternoon/tomorrow evening over this area as a developing low off of the SE coast begins to move northeastwards, leading to intense snowfall rates (1-2" per hour) and rapid accumulations. Confidence in snowfall totals in the SE forecast area is high, but snow totals farther north still remain somewhat in question even this close to the event. The 12Z NAM is suggesting much higher snow totals farther north and inland, which would require the low to track much closer to the coast. This is a far outlier and has not been incorporated into our forecast. Travel will be very difficult for the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes across all of the forecast area, so stay off the road if possible. Thursday morning will provide another burst of snow on the back end of the system as a strong mid/upper low dives southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic. While the mid and upper-levels will have started to dry out, moisture will remain in place within the snow growth zone through around midday. Temperatures will be in the 20s across all of the forecast area, so snow ratios will be quite high, leading to a light and fluffy snow. A quick half-inch to an inch is possible during this time in some locations. Snow Totals... The forecast has remained roughly the same since this morning's update. SE VA and NE NC along with the VA portion of the Eastern Shore still remain the target of the highest snow totals, where 5- 10" are expected, with locally higher amounts possible. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for these areas. While there is still some uncertainty in areas around the RIC Metro and north, there is enough confidence in totals reaching Winter Storm Warning Criteria (4+") that a Warning has been issued for the Farmville-Richmond- Tappahannock-Salisbury area where 4-6" are forecast. Louisa to Cambridge has been placed in a Winter Weather Advisory, with snow totals between 2-4" possible in these areas. Light ice accumulations are forecast for a small portion of NE NC near the Albemarle Sound. Thursday Afternoon through Saturday Morning... After the end of the snow late morning into early afternoon Thursday, winds will pick up in earnest especially along the coast and on the Eastern Shore. This is due to the the tightening gradient between the low in the western North Atlantic and a strong high over the Plains. This could lead to some issues with blowing snow, especially since the last round of snow will be light and easily moved around. Have maintained mention of blowing snow in the coastal areas and Eastern Shore through Thursday evening. Very cold temperatures are expected Thursday night, with lows plummeting into the teens to lower 20s. These frigid lows, combined with the elevated winds, will likely lead to single digit wind chills. Cold Weather Advisories may be required for a significant portion of the local area. As the low moves further offshore Thursday night into Friday, the gradient will begin to relax. The aforementioned high will gradually shift eastward and finally settle across our area on Friday night into early Saturday. With high pressure and dry air dominating the region Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning, no precipitation is expected during this time. Temperatures will slowly start to moderate somewhat beginning Friday and highs will peak in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Low temperatures Friday night will drop back into the teens to lower 20s, with radiational cooling expected as winds slacken further and cloud coverage remains minimal. && 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted Tuesday at 08:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:39 PM Like I said the other day the science behind all of this must be severely flawed. Need a genius to start back on the drawing board. There must be something that has been missed that we will be mocked for 100 years from now. Because in any other field these kind of errors would be completely unacceptable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Tuesday at 08:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:41 PM This run was much more realistic. I’ll take the 4 inches in Short Pump and call it a winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Tuesday at 08:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:42 PM My thoughts on the NAM-Has anyone considered that the lag for NAM is in line with the Euro that had the big numbers a few/couple days ago BUT NAM just now its real wheelhouse just like Euro got its real wheelhouse a few/couple days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted Tuesday at 08:43 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:43 PM 1 minute ago, Conway7305 said: This run was much more realistic. I’ll take the 4 inches in Short Pump and call it a winter. I’m with you. Anything over 3 inches from this system in Richmond Metro is a win. I’ll go with 3-5 as my final and last call. I wouldn’t be shocked if we end up with half an inch to an inch in all honesty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted Tuesday at 08:45 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:45 PM 2 minutes ago, RVAman said: I’m with you. Anything over 3 inches from this system in Richmond Metro is a win. I’ll go with 3-5 as my final and last call. I wouldn’t be shocked if we end up with half an inch to an inch in all honesty. Definitely not. We've already had 3 inches multiple times. The drought is 6. Anything less is just a minor nuisance to me. At this point I would just prefer it not snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted Tuesday at 08:47 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:47 PM Just now, overcautionisbad said: Definitely not. We've already had 3 inches multiple times. The drought is 6. Anything less is just a minor nuisance to me. At this point I would just prefer it not snow. That’s a bit extreme. I don’t think RIC has recorded over a 3 inch system this winter. On top of that, this will be ALL snow, much different than the other systems which all had mixed precip involved. If you don’t want it to snow because it won’t be 6 inches you need to move North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted Tuesday at 08:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:48 PM 1 minute ago, overcautionisbad said: Definitely not. We've already had 3 inches multiple times. The drought is 6. Anything less is just a minor nuisance to me. After the last storm where it was almost 2" of slushy mess followed by ice, I'll take 3-4" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted Tuesday at 08:53 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:53 PM 4 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said: Definitely not. We've already had 3 inches multiple times. The drought is 6. Anything less is just a minor nuisance to me. At this point I would just prefer it not snow. Here you about the drought (is why I brought it up on how hard it is to get a 6+ all snow event here…Sorry but I don’t believe you for a second that you prefer it not to snow if it’s anything less then 6 …. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted Tuesday at 08:53 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:53 PM 5 minutes ago, RVAman said: That’s a bit extreme. I don’t think RIC has recorded over a 3 inch system this winter. On top of that, this will be ALL snow, much different than the other systems which all had mixed precip involved. If you don’t want it to snow because it won’t be 6 inches you need to move North. Measured it my own yard in North Chesterfield back in January. Had it in Glen Allen last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Tuesday at 08:53 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 08:53 PM 7 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said: Definitely not. We've already had 3 inches multiple times. The drought is 6. Anything less is just a minor nuisance to me. At this point I would just prefer it not snow. I'm actually thinking this way. Hopeful that Richmond officially gets 6", been way too long. But, I have a feeling that once again, things will fall short and 3-4" is probably achieved. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted Tuesday at 08:54 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:54 PM Just now, eaglesin2011 said: Here you about the drought (is why I brought it up on how hard it is to get a 6+ all snow event here…Sorry but I don’t believe you for a second that you prefer it not to snow if it’s anything less then 6 …. lol Anyone here should be ecstatic if we manage to get 3 inches. That may even be tough to do. The NAM is still the outlier even with those totals. I could lower my final call to 1-2 and that may be much more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted Tuesday at 08:56 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:56 PM 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: I'm actually thinking this way. Hopeful that Richmond officially gets 6", been way too long. But, I have a feeling that once again, things will fall short and 3-4" is probably achieved. This is likely spot on. Western parts of Henrico towards short pump may only even see 1-3. It sucks, but it is what it is. What can we do? Nothing. Enjoy it falling even if it’s not the amount you want. You can always drive to HR If you want to see totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted Tuesday at 08:56 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:56 PM 5 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: Here you about the drought (is why I brought it up on how hard it is to get a 6+ all snow event here…Sorry but I don’t believe you for a second that you prefer it not to snow if it’s anything less then 6 …. lol I promise you I dont want small snow. I honestly would rather it do nothing. Just enought to inconvenience me is really annoying. If I'm going to be inconvenienced, it better be exciting. Just how I am Also, we already know if it 4 inches the airport will measure 1.5 and nobody will ever investigate to find out why they are so inaccurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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