Staged Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Fv3 went crazy for va beach lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Definitely looks like that will be right around the bullseye. In my area of Glen Allen…I’m starting to think this area may get more accumulating snow from the wrap around upper low, especially if nothing expands back from the coast from the main system …At least it’s still close enough to keep watching up until game-time & should be all snow (whatever ends up here.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EverythingisEverything Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 20 minutes ago, Staged said: Fv3 went crazy for va beach lol Do tell lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 I don’t mean to be a downer but The NAM is also shifting the low SE past two or 3 runs. 3k is starting to look like the GFS. Regular NAM still good for us in RVA but is beginning to drop accumulations. I saw a small SE movement last night but odidn’t say anything because thought it was noise. Will see what 12z says. …:/ My guess is we see 2-4 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 28 minutes ago, EverythingisEverything said: Do tell lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Anyone have the 6Z EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 10 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: I don’t mean to be a downer but The NAM is also shifting the low SE past two or 3 runs. 3k is starting to look like the GFS. Regular NAM still good for us in RVA but is beginning to drop accumulations. I saw a small SE movement last night movement but odidn’t say anything because thought it was noise. Will see what 12z says. …:/ My guess is we see 2-4 inches People can try to explain it away all they want, and it had a ton of snow as of Saturday too, but once Euro gets inside of 96 hours it's pretty deadly. And now inside 30 hours the mesos trend to Euro. Thats why my call was 2-4 yesterday for RVA with higher amounts eastern parts of RVA counties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 23 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: People can try to explain it away all they want, and it had a ton of snow as of Saturday too, but once Euro gets inside of 96 hours it's pretty deadly. And now inside 30 hours the mesos trend to Euro. Thats why my call was 2-4 yesterday for RVA with higher amounts eastern parts of RVA counties. I will say though the 6z euro did increase amounts very slightly NW from 0z so I think the east trend is done on euro. My guess is euro adjusts slightly NW and NAM continues to adjust SE to meet in the middle. RVA gets 2-4 with a max of 5”. It will be a cold snow so should pile up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 FWIW the NWS is still calling for 3-5 in the Richmond/Glen Allen area.. If we end up with that it’s still better then 90% of the storms around here.. Also, will be an all snow event that rarely happens here.. I’m just hoping it’s enough to make my work office close early tomorrow lol… 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 19 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: I will say though the 6z euro did increase amounts very slightly NW from 0z so I think the east trend is done on euro. My guess is euro adjusts slightly NW and NAM continues to adjust SE to meet in the middle. RVA gets 2-4 with a max of 5”. It will be a cold snow so should pile up. Hi @conway7305, do you have a pic of the 6z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 18 Author Share Posted February 18 25 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: I will say though the 6z euro did increase amounts very slightly NW from 0z so I think the east trend is done on euro. My guess is euro adjusts slightly NW and NAM continues to adjust SE to meet in the middle. RVA gets 2-4 with a max of 5”. It will be a cold snow so should pile up. 5 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Hi @conway7305, do you have a pic of the 6z Euro? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 THANK YOU @ Ric Airport. 6Z Euro definitely nudged Northwest but only slightly. Trimmed the snow on the southeastern edge and expanded a bit Northwest up the peninsula and towards NOVA but it's probably negligible at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 18 Author Share Posted February 18 8 hours ago, CavalierHoo said: Lets keep the increases going Latest maps from the Richmond stations, some downward adjustments from 8 and 12. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 18 Author Share Posted February 18 6z Euro AI model was west. Also the 12Z HRRR that's rolling in now, has a considerable increase in totals along the I-95 corridor in VA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 14 minutes ago, Stormpc said: THANK YOU @ Ric Airport. 6Z Euro definitely nudged Northwest but only slightly. Trimmed the snow on the southeastern edge and expanded a bit Northwest up the peninsula and towards NOVA but it's probably negligible at this point. Thanks RIC would have posted but had to step away for work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 I like the storm tracker 8 forecast the best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 NAM rolling now, let’s see if she is done with SE nudge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 18 Author Share Posted February 18 12Z HRRR thru hour 48. It's still snowing so the map isn't final, you can see that the ULL is rolling through C VA right as this is ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 18 Author Share Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 12Z HRRR thru hour 48. It's still snowing so the map isn't final, you can see that the ULL is rolling through C VA right as this is ending. Broader view at hour 48 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 7 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 12Z HRRR thru hour 48. It's still snowing so the map isn't final, you can see that the ULL is rolling through C VA right as this is ending. That ULL will have great ratios usually and will blow around a ton with those winds on the back side. That's going to create one heck of a mess Thursday morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 12k NAM looks more robust and better than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, Sernest14 said: 12k NAM looks more robust and better than 6z Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Looks more N and robust at hour 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 18 Author Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, Conway7305 said: Looks more N and robust at hour 30. certainly juicier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: certainly juicier Better confluence this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 18 Author Share Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Better confluence this run should be a weenie run 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Will it be enough to push AKQ to go to Warning for Metro RIC, Henrico and Hanover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Costal is helping increase precip field even into DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 18 Author Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, JB Fins said: Will it be enough to push AKQ to go to Warning for Metro RIC, Henrico and Hanover? Can't imagine they won't after looking at the NAM. 12K is easily 10-12" around RIC 3k 7-9" so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CavalierHoo Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just now, RIC Airport said: Can't imagine they won't after looking at the NAM. 12K is easily 10-12" around RIC 3k 7-9" so far Pure cold SMOKE. What a run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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