Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[wasnow215]

1 hour ago, Stormpc said:

Before the 1996 blizzard, Richmond was the jackpot zone for days while the rest of us toward DC (Arlington at that time) were supposed to be on the Northern fringe. Not until about 24 hours before the event did everything change and move north of Richmond into the DC area and west. Big short range busts no matter what year / decade or how many upgrades are done. It's a such an inexact science. 

In the Blizzard of 1996 I was living in Brooklyn New York -nearly 30 inches of snow fell between Sunday and Monday it was nuts

[RIC Airport]

5 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

Wow...that's so far NW than most of the modeling! 

2 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Nam is in its wheelhouse now I hope

Still snowing at the end of the 3K.

[chris624wx]

1 minute ago, RIC Airport said:

Still snowing at the end of the 3K.

That makes me feel better 

[eaglesin2011]

 

[Ephesians2]

It's way out of range, but the HRRR seems dry and south. 

 

[Conway7305]

Is this NAM a bottom of the 9th play with 2 outs.  

[Inudaw]

Nam going to break yalls hearts I fear. 

[RIC Airport]

Just now, Ephesians2 said:

It's way out of range, but the HRRR seems dry and south. 

Yup, I posted it on the previous page. Hard to tell what it's going to do.

[RIC Airport]

 

 

[chris624wx]

From AKQ's new AFD: 

12z/17 operational models and their respective ensembles 
(GFS/ECMWF/Canadian) continued a solution showing lesser 
phasing between the southern stream system and the trailing 
potent northern stream mid-level trough. This drives a general 
S-SE trend with southern stream system and subsequent developing
low pressure, with lower snow accumulations over far northern 
portions of the area (essentially RIC northward). Overall, 
forecast confidence is steadily increasing for a significant 
winter storm across our region Wednesday into Thursday. 

Ensemble probabilities have similarly settled over central and
SE VA with 4+" probs (60-80+% from RIC southeast), with 6+"
probs 50-70% from RIC Metro and 70-90% over Hampton Roads and
southside into NE NC N of US-158. Notably 4 and 6" probs have
lowered substantially (20-50% and 20-30%, respectively) above 
a FVX to RIC to SBY line. 

Precipitation Timing and Impacts...

Precip spreads in from west to east through Wednesday morning,
as strong WAA aloft slides across the region. Given the very
cold air in place, this will set the stage for a broad swath of
accumulating snows across the region. While the overall QPF has
lowered across the northwestern half of the area, the initial 
slug of overrunning moisture (290-300 k SFCs) across the 
northern half of the area could well provide a strong, quick 
burst of snow over the NW-third of the area Wed morning into Wed
afternoon, which could quick make for treacherous traveling 
conditions Wed morning into the afternoon across the RIC metro. 
Given expected higher SLRs on the preferred EPS/GEPS blend, the 
higher SLR will help "compensate" for the lower QPF to a degree 
for the actual snowfall forecast.

Farther south, most of the QPF/winter wx is expected to come 
from 18z Wednesday through Thursday morning. The maxima for snow
at this time is expected to occur along a developing deformation
axis and colocated with f-gen forcing driving moisture into the
DGZ, impacting (primarily) much of the Hampton Roads area and 
the eastern shore. 

Snow Totals...
Given subsidence and rapid drying aloft expected from SW to NE 
late Wed into Thursday, expect a rather sharp gradient to snow 
totals, along with a rather abrupt end to snow Wed night and 
early Thursday afternoon. A Winter Storm Watch has been raised
for Wednesday into Thursday for our entire area. Snowfall
accumulations are on the order of 3-6" across MD and the VA
northern neck, with 4-8" across the RIC metro into south central
VA. Higher totals at this time appear to occur along that
pivoting deformation band on the back side of the departing low,
with 5-10" of snow forecast. Given the colder, general SE 
trend, ice accumulations across our area figure to be quite low.
That said, the 12z/17 NAM still has a decent corridor of mixed 
precip across the far southern portions of our area across 
interior NE NC. We have maintained some ice accumulation in 
these areas but kept totals aob 0.10".

Thursday/Thursday night...
Shear axis associated with the northern stream shortwave crosses
the region on Thursday, and will quite possible set off another
round of light snow showers as it crosses, with additional minor
snow accumulations possible. Cold high pressure builds across 
the region as precip exits offshore on Thursday evening. Lows 
Thursday night will be cold but specific values will depend 
heavily on where the axis of heaviest snow falls, with highs in
the upper 20s to low 30s and lows likely to be in the lower to 
middle teens.

[RIC Airport]

12z Euro AI mode came west a bit, too. We need all the help we can get!

 

First two maps 12z vs 6z below.

 

6z

 

[Conway7305]

Could this be the NW correction DT was talking about? Who knows 

[nj2va]

11 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

 

 

There’s going to be some really pretty pictures at Chincoteague with the snow on the beaches there. Enjoy! 

[Conway7305]

ICON still SE

[RIC Airport]

ICON was a step back from 12z. 

 

12z run

 

[Conway7305]

Looks like healthier precip shield on GFS at hour 42.  FWIW

[RIC Airport]

8 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Looks like healthier precip shield on GFS at hour 42.  FWIW

 

[chris624wx]

7 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

GFS showing some deformation banding in Southside HR as the low pulls away too!

[Stormpc]

Fronto banding on the northwest side through Richmond and west.

The American models hate Northeast North Carolina. Maybe right

[ldub23]

7 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Fronto banding on the northwest side through Richmond and west.

The American models hate Northeast North Carolina. Maybe right

Local future radar has all snow for  NE NC

[CavalierHoo]

North edge and jack of the GEFS coming north a tic.

[TampaMan]

I think this map is very solid. Even for SEVA. 

[TampaMan]

John Bernier knows this area better than anyone. I trust him at this point. Now if the 18z EURO jumps off the coast all of these numbers will decrease dramatically by tomorrow. 

[ldub23]

23 minutes ago, RVAman said:

John Bernier knows this area better than anyone. I trust him at this point. Now if the 18z EURO jumps off the coast all of these numbers will decrease dramatically by tomorrow. 

Future cast  here  isnt showing a  mix. Wavy has  6-10 for  NE NC. Also has some lt snow redeveloping late thurs am/aft as the  upper  low  goes  by

Same as  7am

[TampaMan]

1 minute ago, ldub23 said:

Future cast  here  isnt showing a  mix. Wavy has  6-10 for  NE NC. Also has some lt snow redeveloping late thurs am/aft as the  upper  low  gore  by

Really depends on the track of the low. I believe they are anticipating a northern shift if I had to guess which results in a bit of mixing. 

[TampaMan]

Just now, RVAman said:

Really depends on the track of the low. I believe they are anticipating a northern shift if I had to guess which results in a bit of mixing. 

If Richmond can’t win I hope you guys down there do. I’m hoping for at least 4-6 up this way as it’ll be my last winter here in RVA much like RIC. 

[RIC Airport]

[overcautionisbad]

Dang, the models are so different now. I don't kniw what to believe

[TampaMan]

Don’t worry, the 0z will save us. 

[TampaMan]

Just now, overcautionisbad said:

Dang, the models are so different now. I don't kniw what to believe

NAM, GRAF and HRRR