Rsheely88 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 [mention=2094]jlewis1111[/mention]Somehow the snow maps are finished through hour 360, but for everything else, the Euro on wxbell seems to be stuck around hour 51, so I can't see all the panels. Might have to go on other sites to see whether there is any mixing in Hampton Roads or how close it gets.Yea i can’t get the maps on WB to load either.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Rsheely88 said: Yea i can’t get the maps on WB to load either. I'm specifically referring to the 6hr precip panels. Snow maps already posted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 No more SE Trend. Need it to come back just a little. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Looks like they just came in, making a gif. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Also for everyone, yes the more east this is it'll cut qpf for some, BUT ialso a colder storm means higher ratios than 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: No more SE Trend. Need it to come back just a little. Just 20 more miles SE is all I ask! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Conway7305 said: No more SE Trend. Need it to come back just a little. Just now, RIC Airport said: Looks like they just came in, making a gif. 4 minutes ago, Rsheely88 said: Yea i can’t get the maps on WB to load either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Still very cold inland with widespread 1.00"+ QPF from RVA to Hampton Roads. Euro does indicate some mixing for the southside for a time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Ensemble. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 10 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Still very cold inland with widespread 1.00"+ QPF from RVA to Hampton Roads. Euro does indicate some mixing for the southside for a time. Some cement to lock in the first few inches after the initial waa thump. That's fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Stormpc said: Some cement to lock in the first few inches after the initial waa thump. That's fine. Euro AI model seems to have led the way with this, it was always south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Still very cold inland with widespread 1.00"+ QPF from RVA to Hampton Roads. Euro does indicate some mixing for the southside for a time. I'm fine with fringe mixing especially once most the snow has fallen haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Euro AI model seems to have led the way with this, it was always south and east. Yes. Even when everything else was suggesting a historic KU event. Still lots of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted Sunday at 06:39 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:39 PM 33 minutes ago, Rsheely88 said: Ensemble . Def trending down for ric hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Sunday at 06:40 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 06:40 PM 36 minutes ago, chris624wx said: I'm fine with fringe mixing especially once most the snow has fallen haha If trends continue, you may not mix at all, maybe even be the jackpot. The snowfall distribution suggests this event wants to set up like the 1/7/2017 storm. Here is Wakefield's summary. https://www.weather.gov/akq/snow_Jan082017 They even issued a blizzard warning for southside Hampton Roads. Totals on the southside were lower than expected because of mixing. It was a cold storm, RIC was 20°F during the height of the event and recorded 7.1". Totals on the southside were down with 5.3" at ORF, but the peninsula had 10"+ in spots. The snow stuck around for a few days, and there was a record low set at RIC a couple of days later. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Sunday at 07:34 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 07:34 PM FWIW, here is the 18z NBM, obviously still in flux as data is ingested. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted Sunday at 07:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:36 PM 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: FWIW, here is the 18z NBM, obviously still in flux as data is ingested. I though new balance just made shoes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Sunday at 07:38 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:38 PM SERF OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Sunday at 07:39 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:39 PM This could easily trend back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted Sunday at 07:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:43 PM My biggest fear at this moment being that it’s only Sunday is that these models start an eastern trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Sunday at 08:02 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 08:02 PM 24 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: SERF OK 23 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: This could easily trend back 19 minutes ago, RVAman said: My biggest fear at this moment being that it’s only Sunday is that these models start an eastern trend. 26 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said: I though new balance just made shoes Wakefield has added +SN to the grids for RIC. Also not seeing any mention of mixing at ORF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Sunday at 08:09 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 08:09 PM 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted Sunday at 08:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:43 PM Thoughts on the nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Sunday at 08:46 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 08:46 PM 1 minute ago, jlewis1111 said: Thoughts on the nam? Island on its own for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted Sunday at 08:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:46 PM Out to lunch or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted Sunday at 08:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:46 PM nam as been pretty good lately with picking up on things though smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted Sunday at 08:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:50 PM 2 hours ago, Conway7305 said: No more SE Trend. Need it to come back just a little. You sure cursed things, lol. Did the NAM come back enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted Sunday at 08:51 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:51 PM That’s a heck of a jump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Sunday at 08:52 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:52 PM I love it!! We're worrying about too far north at the same time we're worrying about too far south!! Split personalities!! Lol NAM won't be in range until tomorrow night at the earliest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Sunday at 08:53 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 08:53 PM 5 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: nam as been pretty good lately with picking up on things though smh 1 minute ago, ldub23 said: You sure cursed things, lol. Did the NAM come back enough? 1 minute ago, mikeeng92 said: That’s a heck of a jump Latest discussion below from AKQ is worth a read. Also, they say near blizzard conditions can't be ruled out near the coast. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Potential continues to increase for a significant winter storm to impact the region Wednesday into Thursday. Cold weather remains persistent through the middle of the week as another Arctic high moves out of Canada and into the north-central Plains. The high pressure will build south and east. As this occurs a low will develop across the Gulf Coast and lifts northeast off the Atlantic coast. The latest 12z/16 operational models and their respective model ensembles (GFS/ECMWF/Canadian) continue to show the potential for an significant winter storm across the majority of the CWA Wednesday into early Thursday. A southern stream shortwave is expected to move across the southern United States, with a low pressure system starting to develop along the southeastern coast and then lifting north-northeast. The 12z operational models show a better agreement on the placement of the low. However, they still continue to vary on totals as well as the their ensembles. The EURO and Canadian look to have slightly better agreement with potential totals than the GEFS. The GEFS continues to show low values as it continues to hint on a warm nose at 850mb creeping its way slightly further north than the Canadian and Euro ensembles. The probailities of snowfall has risen slightly across all ensembles. The 12z Euro and Canadian ensemble shows swaths of 90 to 100% probs of >=3" of snow with 60 to 80% probs for >=6" of snow. There has even been an increase in the chances for >=12" probs with much of the area now in the 20 to 30% contour with the Canadian and Euro. The GEFS continues to show somewhat lower probabilities but the 50th percentile still shows a wide footprint of 4-6" across the region. The overall 12z guidance continues to slightly trend cooler with this potential system. This colder weather will have implications for the placement of mixed precip corridors with this system. Have slightly increased freezing rain potential across the far SE as the ensemble guidance does show the potential warm nose creeping its way into the area. Will also note, the low is expected to deepen as it approaches the coast late Wednesday into early Thursday. As this low deepens the pressure gradient is expected to tighten especially along the far SE coast bringing gusty winds. Confidence is low at the time however, the possibility of nearing blizzard like conditions especially along the SE coastal areas cannot be ruled out. This event has a high ceiling for snow totals with QPF well over an inch across the region. However, any mixed precip will reduce totals significantly. Specifics should become more clear over the next 24- 48 hours so continue to follow the forecast over the coming days. Cold and dry conditions move in behind the system as high pressure builds into the region. Temperatures Thursday into the weekend will depend heavily on how much snow accumulates and where. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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