jlewis1111 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 so euro for ric is what like 3pm start time on wed and 3pm end on thursday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I really hope the Euro is correct. Last storm the NAM and Euro did well on accumulations. GFS was stubborn but proved to be wrong at least for RIC We got nowhere near 6-8 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Great now I’m awake again after that fabulous HECS run and can’t sleep, go figure. Will be curious to see EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: so euro for ric is what like 3pm start time on wed and 3pm end on thursday? Pretty close-MAYBE noon Wed to noon Thurs on this run? Splitting hairs tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: so euro for ric is what like 3pm start time on wed and 3pm end on thursday? Looking roughly like 8-10am Wednesday to 8-10am Thursday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Looking roughly like 8-10am Wednesday to 8-10am Thursday. Full 24 hours of basically heavy cold snow, unlike these last few storms 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 10 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Great now I’m awake again after that fabulous HECS run and can’t sleep, go figure. Will be curious to see EPS EPS already an uptick since 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: EPS already an uptick since 18z. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: I've never seen a double digit Ens before. Let's all throw in 50$ to keep it right here! Hahahahaha! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I had to laugh at this in the main NOVA thread. They are happy for the Euro as well but jaded from tonight’s runs. hahaha —— A goose is going to fart midflight over Kansas later tonight and it will cause the gfs to show a radically different outcome in its next run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: I've never seen a double digit Ens before. Let's all throw in 50$ to keep it right here! Hahahahaha! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 One item to note reading through main thread. Euro nailed this current rain storm at 120 hours pretty much. Looks so so close with current conditions form here to New England with what it forecasted 5 days ago. To me that's a very good sign. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Well, I've begun preparing for the worst. This right after the high winds today is going to be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6z ICON better and a tick W, GFS slightly better, W tick. NAM looked great 6z Euro still looked good but ticked E along with EPS (more members offshore this run Im sure everything will waiver. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Euro is deadly at mid-range. Let's watch and see if all the other globals and shorter range mesos start falling in line. At least I hope so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 WInter storm watches prob go up for ric what maybe tomorrow lunch or evening release? Watch critera is 24-72 hours before event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, AlexD1990 said: I'm hopeful now after glancing at 6z runs that my earlier pessimism was overstated. Reeling this one in would really be the cap off to what turned out to be a really good winter, at least IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: I never pay real hard attention to the 18z and 6z model suites. They dont use fresh data. 0 and 12Z models use fresh data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Starting to pay attention to the Nam today. It was the first one lately to sniff out any trends. So far so good on the 12z run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 hows the mood today boys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 17 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: I never pay real hard attention to the 18z and 6z model suites. They dont use fresh data. 0 and 12Z models use fresh data. They may use fresh data from weather stations and planes, and perhaps any special balloon’s launched. The 18z GFS seems to do better than 12z from what I’ve seen playing in WxChallenge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Looks like NAM wants to PDIII us, expected big accumulations called for days in advance only to have a sleet fest. Again, I can just read colors and have no met skills whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Nam has mixing issues for us, the familiar theme…lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EverythingisEverything Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Nam has mixing issues for us, the familiar theme…lol And rain for Hampton Roads our familiar theme lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I don’t like the NAM but it also is super early and it will change. 84 hours is max run time and snow/sleet is just getting . 48 hours is when I’ll start to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Gonna call 4-6 inches. That’s my call. If it’s more I’ll be pleasantly surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 ICON is a Hampton Roads beat down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 27 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: I don’t like the NAM but it also is super early and it will change. 84 hours is max run time and snow/sleet is just getting . 48 hours is when I’ll start to worry. The NAM can often be the first to introduce mix lines where there were previously none. In this specific case it's probably over done. There's an unusual amount of wiggle room in the column but this far south there can never really be enough. However, the nam wreck the column because it drives an 850 low to nearly Pittsburgh lol. Mid levels are a warm air vacuum. Can it break this way? Yes, within the envelope imo. But the nam is a mesoscale model and the storm hasn't even organized yet. So the 84 hour panel is a complete digital evolution. NAM loves to go a little haywire beyond d2 in these situations. If the shortwave was over the MS river and getting organized, I'd be pretty concerned rn but we're not there yet and imho, it's pretty unlikely the NAM is "on to something" yet 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The NAM can often be the first to introduce mix lines where there were previously none. In this specific case it's probably over done. There's an unusual amount of wiggle room in the column but this far south there can never really be enough. However, the nam wreck the column because it drives an 850 low to nearly Pittsburgh lol. Mid levels are a warm air vacuum. Can it break this way? Yes, within the envelope imo. But the nam is a mesoscale model and the storm hasn't even organized yet. So the 84 hour panel is a complete digital evolution. NAM loves to go a little haywire beyond d2 in these situations. If the shortwave was over the MS river and getting organized, I'd be pretty concerned rn but we're not there yet and imho, it's pretty unlikely the NAM is "on to something" yet Thanks for the insight Bob! Let’s hope we all get another 0z Euro Run soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Yes, thanks Bob Chill! So glad you pop in from time to time now that you are a Virginian! Hope things by the lake are well! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now