wasnow215 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 It's 33° here in Southwest Chesterfield 23120 Forecasted temperature is supposed to be 38° right now. This is what I was talking about @RIC Airportthe other day about temperatures consistently being colder this winter season then forecasted. Will it mean anything for tomorrow? We shall see. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 33 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Look at you getting all aggressive lol Oh, I still think I'll get 1-2 inches. Ashland will definitely see upwards of 6-9 inches. IF temps hold, Short Pump will see 5-6". I live 3 miles from there. I'm still thinking we start later and switch over earlier than anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 HRRR has a much earlier start tomorrow , which I think is a huge plus for the snowier model runs. Radar returns look healthy and south to me with most of the action in Tennessee vs Kentucky, even some returns in N. Alabama. I’ve been pessimistic about this threat all week but I like where we’re at now especially with the banding potential. And cold seems to be winning as @wasnow215mentioned. RIC 3.7” The Fan 4.3” Midlothian 5.4” Tuckahoe 6.4” Short Pump 7.8” Ashland 9” Bumpass 12.8” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 If this verifies, (your predictions @mikeeng92). I'll personally venmo you for every inch I get here 3 miles east of Short Pump. Edit: Excuse me, I'm 5.2 miles East of Short Pump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, RVAman said: If this verifies, (your predictions @mikeeng92). I'll personally venmo you for every inch I get here 3 miles east of Short Pump. Haha! This storm just feels different. GFS only shows a death band like that for some big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, mikeeng92 said: Haha! This storm just feels different. GFS only shows a death band like that for some big storms. That Tuckahoe call is quite hefty. I hope you're right. I'll give you a dollar for every inch of you get over 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 9 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said: HRRR has a much earlier start tomorrow , which I think is a huge plus for the snowier model runs. Radar returns look healthy and south to me with most of the action in Tennessee vs Kentucky, even some returns in N. Alabama. I’ve been pessimistic about this threat all week but I like where we’re at now especially with the banding potential. And cold seems to be winning as @wasnow215mentioned. RIC 3.7” The Fan 4.3” Midlothian 5.4” Tuckahoe 6.4” Short Pump 7.8” Ashland 9” Bumpass 12.8” How much for Lynchburg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I'll play too. KRIC 1.2 Ashland 5.8 Ruther Glen 6.3 Fredericksburg 6.7 Woodbridge 5.4 DCA 3.1 BWI 1.2 Norfolk 0 Newport News 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, Ephesians2 said: How much for Lynchburg? 1.7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, RVAman said: 1.7 Honestly close to what I'm expecting. This feels like a clone of the early Jan event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Now that I watch the GRAF again, dry slotting could become a major issue as it usually does for us. Will it stay south of Chester is the real question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 While the HRRR is a tad north, it still provides higher rates for metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: 0z 3K NAM It's 28° here in Western Chesterfield County. Forecasted temperature right now supposed to be 35°. What can we make of that for tomorrow? Anything? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 00z 3K NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, wasnow215 said: It's 28° here in Western Chesterfield County. Forecasted temperature right now supposed to be 35°. What can we make of that for tomorrow? Anything? Can you verify that it is 28 out? It’s 35 in Henrico and my outdoor thermometer is saying 34.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: It's 28° here in Western Chesterfield County. Forecasted temperature right now supposed to be 35°. What can we make of that for tomorrow? Anything? RIC is at 34°F at 9pm. Most models had 29-30 for the low. The colder the better I'd say. But as clouds roll in, temps should stabilize or even rise a bit. 3K NAM was better for the front end, but still shows a transition to a mix. How soon that happens is key to accumulations. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 22 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: It's 28° here in Western Chesterfield County. Forecasted temperature right now supposed to be 35°. What can we make of that for tomorrow? Anything? I’m not saying you’re lying that’s just very low for what’s projected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I am just looking at the HRRR model from now on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 16 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: RIC is at 34°F at 9pm. Most models had 29-30 for the low. The colder the better I'd say. But as clouds roll in, temps should stabilize or even rise a bit. 3K NAM was better for the front end, but still shows a transition to a mix. How soon that happens is key to accumulations. 33 here near short pump 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 10 minutes ago, RVAman said: I’m not saying you’re lying that’s just very low for what’s projected. And I'm not saying you should be in therapy if you're not. But you need to decide that lol. Take a look at Hampton Park, Virginia and look at the temperature on WeatherBug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: And I'm not saying you should be in therapy if you're not. But you need to decide that lol. Take a look at Hampton Park, Virginia and look at the temperature on WeatherBug. What? All I was asking for was if you were seeing that on an app or on a physical thermometer. Not sure how therapy came into the conversation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 13 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: I am just looking at the HRRR model from now on. I’d say look at the GRAF too. It’s been nearly 100% spot on even with rain. NBC12 has the GRAF on their interactive radar. Just click “future” and it’ll show the next 8 hours of precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I don't know you brought up lying about temperatures. Why would I make that up? Did you look at Hampton Park Virginia? And by the way I think most human beings should be in therapy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 23 minutes ago, RVAman said: I’m not saying you’re lying that’s just very low for what’s projected. I said I didn’t think you’re lying. I was just curious to see if it was actual temps or an app my guy. Holy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, RVAman said: I said I didn’t think you’re lying. I was just curious to see if it was actual temps or an app my guy. Holy. You actually said that's very low for what was projected and that's what I said. So you just repeated the same thing I said in my original reply. It's from the WeatherBug app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, wasnow215 said: You actually said that's very low for what was projected and that's what I said. So you just repeated the same thing I said in my original reply. It's from the WeatherBug app My question was would that have any effect for tomorrow or is it just radiational cooling because it's clear right now. I also mentioned it's been this way all winter that the projected temperatures have been higher than the actual temperatures especially in the morning before noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 7 minutes ago, RVAman said: I said I didn’t think you’re lying. I was just curious to see if it was actual temps or an app my guy. Holy. NWS for Petersburg at the airport is 28° right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: You actually said that's very low for what was projected and that's what I said. So you just repeated the same thing I said in my original reply. It's from the WeatherBug app I guess you’re just naturally argumentative. I’m not here to debate about anything. If you think I’m saying you’re lying by my comments that’s fine, but I wasn’t. There’s a difference between apps and actual temperatures. For example, the weather app on iPhones tends to exaggerate everything and is completely wrong on start times, even for rain. If you use weather bug for that, great- nothing wrong with that. I just know sometimes apps are wrong and was curious if you had an outdoor thermometer to verify it. I hope I cleared that up enough for you. Back to the system we’re tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Every model besides the HRRR have gone North. Including the GFS. Uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 The latest HRRR, which runs every hour, has some intense rates around RIC between 1-3pm tomorrow, but it only has surface temps of about 33-34 degrees. This is only thru 3pm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now