RVAman Posted yesterday at 07:50 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:50 PM 1 minute ago, Ephesians2 said: From the main thread. Of course, they were not happy about it, but looks like an improvement for Central VA. Hopefully the NAM improves as well. What model is this from? I cannot tell for the life of me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted yesterday at 07:52 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:52 PM 2 minutes ago, RVAman said: What model is this from? I cannot tell for the life of me. HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted yesterday at 07:53 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:53 PM The HRRR - high resolution rapid refresh. Short range model that I think gets used around here inside 48 hours, just basing that on memory and a quick google. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted yesterday at 07:55 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:55 PM Shoot, there used to be a whole timeline on what model to use when but I think even recent changes have messed that up over the years as it was always the biggies first and then when it got to 48-72 hours it was the NAM, as that was its sweet spot, then SREF and HRRR inside 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted yesterday at 07:56 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:56 PM No doubt NN will see an enhanced version of what happened last night and this AM. More sleet and snow but nothing that sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted yesterday at 08:01 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:01 PM NAM is going to be a warmer. A bit warmer I’m afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted yesterday at 08:09 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:09 PM 10 minutes ago, RVAman said: NAM is going to be a warmer. A bit warmer I’m afraid. A lot further south. At least the 12k. Not as warm as I was afraid. Not a bad run for Richmond lots of sleet Edit: Looks fishy. Back to the consecutive double impulse hit from a day or so ago but still looks way too far south for frozen. Doesn't look right to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted yesterday at 08:18 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:18 PM The HRRR has been more dependable in my opinion. I’ll be leaning on that for this go around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted yesterday at 08:29 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:29 PM NBC12 lowered to 3-5. Looks like it’s a battle between my .5-2 inches to your 3-5 inch’s @wasnow215 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted yesterday at 08:34 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 08:34 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted yesterday at 08:45 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:45 PM They are being conservative. Understandably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago GFS holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: GFS holds Need the NAM to get on board. Likely too late. GFS / HRRR vs Euro/NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 3 minutes ago, RVAman said: Need the NAM to get on board. Likely too late. GFS / HRRR vs Euro/NAM The HRRR is better the the NAM at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Never seen the GFS so rock solid with a storm. That death band looks like a lot fun. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 24 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: According to the GFS I’ll get between 7-8”. That model is on crack for this storm for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted 22 hours ago Author Share Posted 22 hours ago 16 minutes ago, RVAman said: According to the GFS I’ll get between 7-8”. That model is on crack for this storm for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago Final calls everybody. Let’s hear em. Richmond Metro. I’m going with 1-2 inches of wet sloppy snow with a quick turnover to sleet/freezing rain by noon to all rain by 2-3 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago AKQ is calling for 4-6” for my area in Henrico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted 22 hours ago Author Share Posted 22 hours ago 13 minutes ago, RVAman said: Final calls everybody. Let’s hear em. Richmond Metro. KRIC: 2.3" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago KRIC 1.7 Ashland 5 Ruther Glen 7 Fredericksburg 8.5 Woodbridge 7.5 DCA 5.1 BWI 3.8 Norfolk 0 Newport News .5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted 21 hours ago Author Share Posted 21 hours ago GRAF model https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1889088318907805707?t=fHfVuSIJemjg5ptqxA-eUg&s=19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: GRAF model https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1889088318907805707?t=fHfVuSIJemjg5ptqxA-eUg&s=19 This actually looks really good for Richmond. Has it snowing heavy until around 5 pm or so. Those 6” areas can definitely be achieved if accurate. If this model verified I’d be sitting at 6-8” here about 3 miles east of Shortpump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 6 minutes ago, RVAman said: This actually looks really good for Richmond. Has it snowing heavy until around 5 pm or so. Those 6” areas can definitely be achieved if accurate. If this model verified I’d be sitting at 6-8” here about 3 miles east of Shortpump. same, I’m basically in Short Pump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago Got to see how that first finger of precipitation develops. Very possible it sets up just north of Richmond. I don't like the looks of that Graf at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted 21 hours ago Author Share Posted 21 hours ago Just now, Stormpc said: Got to see how that first finger of precipitation develops. Very possible it sets up just north of Richmond. I don't like the looks of that Graf at all. Agreed. Very worried about mixing. Your 1.7" at RIC may be more realistic. Obviously north and west will get colder but that may not translate as much at 850mb unless you're north of I-295 toward Ashland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwxfan Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 1 hour ago, Conway7305 said: GFS holds Euro does too, big time at 18z. I see 10 inches for short pump on pivotal. No way we get 10 in short pump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted 21 hours ago Author Share Posted 21 hours ago 2 minutes ago, winterwxfan said: Euro does too, big time at 18z. I see 10 inches for short pump on pivotal. No way we get 10 in short pump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwxfan Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago Apologies, was GFS, sorry! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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