wasnow215 Posted yesterday at 12:47 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:47 PM 7 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: As we all expected the GFS has slowly caved. and heaviest banding is now in Fredericksburg.. 3-4 inches here for now unless we get more Shifts N Im guessing any hope of a last min S trend is over… I still like 3-5" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted yesterday at 12:54 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:54 PM I may be reaching but It did look like the 6z NAM came a hair S this run on R/S 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted yesterday at 01:49 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:49 PM 49 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: I may be reaching but It did look like the 6z NAM came a hair S this run on R/S There's no way any model is going to get the extent of the initial warm nose correct. Total boom or bust for Richmond. I would hedge low on the 1-2 range south of 295 in Ric. Marginal events with no antecedent cold isn't the formula. This is a Fredericksburg to DC event. Maybe it comes in hot with a major thump. Never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted yesterday at 01:55 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:55 PM Snowflakes in NN. I counted 17.3 flakes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted yesterday at 02:27 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:27 PM 31 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Snowflakes in NN. I counted 17.3 flakes Today?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted yesterday at 02:31 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:31 PM Yep 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick_LeBoof Posted yesterday at 02:37 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:37 PM Here are the GEFS plumes for Richmond. This is 10:1 Snowfall. Pretty big spread in solutions for the 06 GEFS Run. 4in seems to be a comfortable place to land with this system. As is tradition, we pray for a good banding setup in addition to this rain/snow line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted yesterday at 02:40 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:40 PM 4" is optimistic at the airport. Think sleet will really tamper totals here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted yesterday at 02:52 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:52 PM 24 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Today?? Yes. Lasted about 5 minutes. I am in the process of digging out now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted yesterday at 02:54 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:54 PM another bust for ric.. They can go ahead and cancel the winter storm watches 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted yesterday at 03:17 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:17 PM 12z HRRR looks solid 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted yesterday at 03:21 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:21 PM 3 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: 12z HRRR looks solid This is what model needs to be watched. That and the GRAF. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted yesterday at 03:23 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:23 PM Just now, RVAman said: This is what model needs to be watched. That and the GRAF. right now it currently shows heaviest bands over Richmond 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted yesterday at 03:44 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:44 PM GFS is not done running but looks like the snow bands ticks south. Good news. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted yesterday at 03:54 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:54 PM A little colder with the heavy snow band shifting a little south on the GFS but a lot more sleet on the southern end of that. It's going to be a battle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted yesterday at 04:01 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:01 PM 3 hours ago, Conway7305 said: I may be reaching but It did look like the 6z NAM came a hair S this run on R/S Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted yesterday at 04:02 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:02 PM 6 minutes ago, Stormpc said: A little colder with the heavy snow band shifting a little south on the GFS but a lot more sleet on the southern end of that. It's going to be a battle. True! I'm rolling with the Canadian lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted yesterday at 04:39 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:39 PM 36 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: True! I'm rolling with the Canadian lol You forced me to look. Looks like the goal posts are narrowing with the edges trimmed on the Southern and Northern sides. Someone's going to get 10 inches of cement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted yesterday at 04:57 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:57 PM The line will likely be right through the city from SW to NE. Unfortunate but hopefully we see a quick bump before switching over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted yesterday at 05:02 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:02 PM 3 minutes ago, RVAman said: The line will likely be right through the city from SW to NE. Unfortunate but hopefully we see a quick bump before switching over. It's my 3-5 vs your 1-3 lol. It'll probably be 3! Haha!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted yesterday at 05:19 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:19 PM let’s see what the king has to say. However, short range models are probably better at this point like the HRRR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted yesterday at 05:24 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:24 PM 20 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: It's my 3-5 vs your 1-3 lol. It'll probably be 3! Haha!! As much as I hate to say it, I’m leaning more towards .5 - 1 inch. I’m not meteorologist by any means. I just know what happens here and continues to happen… warm air. I hope I’m wrong and I’ll be so excited if I am. I just have a gut twisting feelings about this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted yesterday at 05:30 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 05:30 PM 10 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: let’s see what the king has to say. However, short range models are probably better at this point like the HRRR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted yesterday at 05:31 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:31 PM Euro ticked S on the r/s line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted yesterday at 05:49 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:49 PM NBC 12 - 3 to 6 inches WRIC - 4 to 7 inches WTVR - 3 to 6 inches 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted yesterday at 05:53 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:53 PM 22 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: definitely south of 0Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RicwxSaint Posted yesterday at 06:00 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:00 PM Have to remember the local stations are forecasting for a pretty big area including Ashland and slightly north. They could see numbers within their range up there for sure. We will probably go from 1 - 7 inches over a pretty short distance as the crow flies with this setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted yesterday at 06:06 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:06 PM 5 minutes ago, RicwxSaint said: Have to remember the local stations are forecasting for a pretty big area including Ashland and slightly north. They could see numbers within their range up there for sure. We will probably go from 1 - 7 inches over a pretty short distance as the crow flies with this setup. They take account for that in their snow maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted yesterday at 07:16 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:16 PM The HRRR seems to hold the cold air steady over us for the duration of the heavier bands of snow. The NAM hates that idea and puts essentially ALL sleet / freezing rain on us. It’ll be a mix a both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted yesterday at 07:48 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:48 PM From the main thread. Of course, they were not happy about it, but looks like an improvement for Central VA. Hopefully the NAM improves as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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