Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[wasnow215]

7 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

As we all expected the GFS has slowly caved.  and heaviest banding is now in Fredericksburg..  3-4 inches here for now unless we get more Shifts N 

Im guessing any hope of a last min S trend is over…

I still like 3-5"

[Conway7305]

I may be reaching but It did look like the 6z NAM came a hair S this run on R/S 

[Stormpc]

49 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

I may be reaching but It did look like the 6z NAM came a hair S this run on R/S 

There's no way any model is going to get the extent of the initial warm nose correct. Total boom or bust for Richmond. I would hedge low on the 1-2 range south of 295 in Ric. Marginal events with no antecedent cold isn't the formula.  This is a Fredericksburg to DC event.  Maybe it comes in hot with a major thump. Never know.

[ldub23]

Snowflakes  in NN. I counted  17.3 flakes

[Stormpc]

31 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Snowflakes  in NN. I counted  17.3 flakes

Today??

[JB Fins]

Yep

 

[Dick_LeBoof]

 

Here are the GEFS plumes for Richmond.   This is 10:1 Snowfall.    Pretty big spread in solutions for the 06 GEFS Run.  4in seems to be a comfortable place to land with this system.  As is tradition, we pray for a good banding setup in addition to this rain/snow line. 

[Inudaw]

4" is optimistic at the airport.      Think sleet will really tamper totals here. 

[ldub23]

24 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Today??

Yes. Lasted about  5 minutes. I am in the process  of digging  out  now.

[jlewis1111]

another bust for ric.. They can go ahead and cancel the winter storm watches

[Conway7305]

12z HRRR looks solid 

 

[RVAman]

3 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

12z HRRR looks solid 

 

This is what model needs to be watched. That and the GRAF. 

[Conway7305]

Just now, RVAman said:

This is what model needs to be watched. That and the GRAF. 

right now it currently shows heaviest bands over Richmond

[Conway7305]

GFS is not done running but looks like the snow bands ticks south. Good news.

[Stormpc]

A little colder with the heavy snow band shifting a little south on the GFS but a lot more sleet on the southern end of that. It's going to be a battle.

[wasnow215]

3 hours ago, Conway7305 said:

I may be reaching but It did look like the 6z NAM came a hair S this run on R/S 

Agreed

[wasnow215]

6 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

A little colder with the heavy snow band shifting a little south on the GFS but a lot more sleet on the southern end of that. It's going to be a battle.

True! I'm rolling with the Canadian lol

[Stormpc]

36 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

True! I'm rolling with the Canadian lol

You forced me to look. Looks like the goal posts are narrowing with the edges trimmed on the Southern and Northern sides. Someone's going to get 10 inches of cement.

[RVAman]

The line will likely be right through the city from SW to NE. Unfortunate but hopefully we see a quick bump before switching over. 

[wasnow215]

3 minutes ago, RVAman said:

The line will likely be right through the city from SW to NE. Unfortunate but hopefully we see a quick bump before switching over. 

It's my 3-5 vs your 1-3 lol. It'll probably be 3! Haha!!

[Conway7305]

let’s see what the king has to say. However, short range models are probably better at this point like the HRRR. 

[RVAman]

20 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

It's my 3-5 vs your 1-3 lol. It'll probably be 3! Haha!!

As much as I hate to say it, I’m leaning more towards .5 - 1 inch. I’m not meteorologist by any means. I just know what happens here and continues to happen… warm air. I hope I’m wrong and I’ll be so excited if I am. I just have a gut twisting feelings about this one. 

[RIC Airport]

10 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

let’s see what the king has to say. However, short range models are probably better at this point like the HRRR. 

[Conway7305]

Euro ticked S  on the r/s line 

[RVAman]

NBC 12 - 3 to 6 inches

WRIC - 4 to 7 inches

WTVR - 3 to 6 inches 

[Conway7305]

22 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

definitely south of 0Z

[RicwxSaint]

Have to remember the local stations are forecasting for a pretty big area including Ashland and slightly north.  They could see numbers within their range up there for sure.  We will probably go from 1 - 7 inches over a pretty short distance as the crow flies with this setup.  

[RVAman]

5 minutes ago, RicwxSaint said:

Have to remember the local stations are forecasting for a pretty big area including Ashland and slightly north.  They could see numbers within their range up there for sure.  We will probably go from 1 - 7 inches over a pretty short distance as the crow flies with this setup.  

They take account for that in their snow maps. 

[RVAman]

The HRRR seems to hold the cold air steady over us for the duration of the heavier bands of snow. The NAM hates that idea and puts essentially ALL sleet / freezing rain on us. It’ll be a mix a both. 

[Ephesians2]

From the main thread. Of course, they were not happy about it, but looks like an improvement for Central VA. Hopefully the NAM improves as well.