wasnow215 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 16 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: What is your call? 3-5" -been the same since Friday. And it lines up with the Watch lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, wasnow215 said: 3-5" -been the same since Friday. And it lines up with the Watch lol And the reason for being conservative is bc of temps I think track is fine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 I’m thinking between 4-7” I could totally bust if warm air comes in from weaker HP to the N. This storm is more of an overrunning event and not a costal storm. Coastal tend to pull in warm air from the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 I'm going with 1-2" locally in Richmond with spots up to 3". That's my final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 I’m not able to view the 18z Euro. I know it’s running. Hopefully it’s a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 7 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: I’m not able to view the 18z Euro. I know it’s running. Hopefully it’s a step in the right direction. It's basically the same as 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 8 hours ago, RVAman said: I’m gonna throw the towel in until it happens. No more watching models or reading forecasts for me. Hope for the best. You are the rva version of ji 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Im waiting on my 307.91 sleet pellets tomorrow am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 52 minutes ago, Rvarookie said: You are the rva version of ji Ji who? Ji you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 19 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Im waiting on my 307.91 sleet pellets tomorrow am Yes, there is a little feature arriving early tomorrow morning that's been on and off the models for a 2-3 days now. GFS has been the most bullish with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: Yes, there is a little feature arriving early tomorrow morning that's been on and off the models for a 2-3 days now. GFS has been the most bullish with it. 00z NAM showing it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 hard to tell, but looks like the NAM didn’t change much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Not worried about the NAM thermals given gfs and euro (always runs warm). Precip is still there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Icon looked good but we are very close to the mix line I guess the good thing about that is the heaviest precep is where the rain snow line sets up. we don’t have much wiggle room w/ that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 GFS bump north. Razor thin cutoff line. I’m sticking with my 1-3. I would not be surprised within 24 hours if the precip shifts even further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 00z GFS is about 20-25 miles north with axis of the heaviest hand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 15 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 00z GFS is about 20-25 miles north with axis of the heaviest hand. Slight N adjustment. Could be just wavering back and fourth a bit but could also be beginning of an adjustment to Euro/Nam. My guess is 4” for RVA with a lot of sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 19 minutes ago, RVAman said: GFS bump north. Razor thin cutoff line. I’m sticking with my 1-3. I would not be surprised within 24 hours if the precip shifts even further north. I tend to agree as much as I don’t want too. IMO Fredericksburg to NOVA gets best accumulations. We get serval inches from front end then goes to sleet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 E A G L E S ...EAGLES!! Total total domination GFS is fine -850's never cave on 0z run and surface is good too. Both of those things are very important 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Sleet here already but temp is way above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Euro OP is slightly N. 3 “ for RVA 5” near Short Pump Evem a slight adjustment S will add major accumulations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 8 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Euro OP is slightly N. 3 “ for RVA 5” near Short Pump Evem a slight adjustment S will add major accumulations. I'm headed up to NYC tomorrow and will enjoy the 1-2" I see from this. I may browse, but may not post much tomorrow. I think the Euro is more right for RIC, I would be concerned about mixing so those totals could be cut in half. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 As we all expected the GFS has slowly caved. and heaviest banding is now in Fredericksburg.. 3-4 inches here for now unless we get more Shifts N Im guessing any hope of a last min S trend is over… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 HRRR (short range) model still shows heavy banding over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 7 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: As we all expected the GFS has slowly caved. and heaviest banding is now in Fredericksburg.. 3-4 inches here for now unless we get more Shifts N Im guessing any hope of a last min S trend is over… I still like 3-5" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I may be reaching but It did look like the 6z NAM came a hair S this run on R/S 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 49 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: I may be reaching but It did look like the 6z NAM came a hair S this run on R/S There's no way any model is going to get the extent of the initial warm nose correct. Total boom or bust for Richmond. I would hedge low on the 1-2 range south of 295 in Ric. Marginal events with no antecedent cold isn't the formula. This is a Fredericksburg to DC event. Maybe it comes in hot with a major thump. Never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Snowflakes in NN. I counted 17.3 flakes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 31 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Snowflakes in NN. I counted 17.3 flakes Today?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Yep 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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