yoda Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 251 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2025 VAZ048-060>062-068-069-509>516-100400- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0004.250211T1300Z-250212T1500Z/ Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Amelia-Powhatan- Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover- Western Chesterfield-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- 251 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 5 inches and ice accumulations around two tenths of an inch possible around the eastern Piedmont. * WHERE...A portion of central Virginia. * WHEN...From Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning commutes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 251 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2025 MDZ021>025-VAZ099-100400- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0004.250211T1800Z-250212T1500Z/ Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches- Accomack- 251 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Maryland and southeast Virginia. * WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning commutes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 251 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2025 VAZ064-075>078-082-083-085-517>522-100400- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0004.250211T1500Z-250212T1500Z/ Caroline-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Charles City-New Kent-Middlesex-Western King William-Eastern King William- Western King and Queen-Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex- Eastern Essex- 251 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches and ice accumulations around a light glaze possible. * WHERE...Portions of east central, eastern, and north central Virginia. * WHEN...From Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning commutes. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Thanks @yoda! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Once again the NAM looks to go N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 4 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Once again the NAM looks to go N. Tomorrow it'll be in range then I'll be concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: Tomorrow it'll be in range then I'll be concerned 6 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Once again the NAM looks to go N. It actually ticked south from 12 Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 4 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: It actually ticked south from 12 Z Yeah it’s a hair south from 12z but still North, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 19 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Once again the NAM looks to go N. 12 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: It actually ticked south from 12 Z 6 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Yeah it’s a hair south from 12z but still North, NAM is colder, but is basically a IP/ZR fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: NAM is colder, but is basically a IP/ZR fest. It looks like the NAM slides the initial batch of moisture more NW instead of W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: It looks like the NAM slides the initial batch of moisture more NW instead of W. Yeah, and that was the 3K NAM only through hour 60. Look at the ZR amounts on the 12K NAM through hour 84, although probably overdone. Once RIC hits freezing, it's at freezing all night with ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 The DAMN NAM…lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Unbelievable, the GFS throws us a HECS and the Nam gives us zilch. We are within 2 days of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Is the NAM even accurate this far outt or is it usually a better model 24 hours to the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 @Conway7305 @RIC Airport icon and RGEM solid!-irs all the models pretty much vs the NAM? I feel pretty good about that lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 10 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: @Conway7305 @RIC Airport icon and RGEM solid!-irs all the models pretty much vs the NAM? I feel pretty good about that lol GFS is starting soon, so we'll see if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Nam tends to run warm too so keep that in mind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 GFS not backing down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: GFS not backing down 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 5 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Surface temps are colder throughout! Little help with the pics @RIC Airport 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Looks like it moved the axis of the heaviest snow about 25 mi North. Less down in the Tidewater area as well but that's expected. I don't think there's going to be any accumulation south of Williamsburg. Looking great for areas from Ashland to Alexandria RIC... who knows. That's too fine a line. That could be a major bust in either direction. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Wow, trying to remember a battle between the models this far apart so close to the onset of an event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, JB Fins said: Wow, trying to remember a battle between the models this far apart so close to the onset of an event. It’s crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 GFS has been the most steady with this storm. Not much waivering from run to run. I’ll have new respect if she wins. Euro has been back a fourth. Will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 5 minutes ago, JB Fins said: Wow, trying to remember a battle between the models this far apart so close to the onset of an event. But they're really not. The only one that hasn't trended south today has been the nam. Icon, European model, RGEM, Canadian all have trended with more snow down here than it was showing yesterday and last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Did you guys see that the GFS trended colder at the surface? Check it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 25 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Surface temps are colder throughout! Little help with the pics @RIC Airport 10 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Did you guys see that the GFS trended colder at the surface? Check it out 18z GFS had a slightly earlier arrival. And yes, the surface temps are a few degrees colder because of that, which I alluded to earlier that an earlier arrival would be ideal to keep temps from rising too much Tuesday morning. 18Z GFS has RIC at 33°F when precip arrives around 7-8 am. The 12Z run had temps 36-38°F when the precip arrived around 9-10 am. Nonetheless, looking at the hourly temps, the 18z GFS doesn't have RIC hitting 32°F until around 5 pm. But that doesn't mean it may not hit 32 intrahour under heavy rates. The best rates are from about 10am to 7pm with 1pm to 4pm being the peak. So ratios won't be 10:1 if this is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 I should also point out that once RIC hits freezing at 5pm, it stays at 32°F until about 1pm Wednesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 18 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Did you guys see that the GFS trended colder at the surface? Check it out What is your call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 16 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 18z GFS had a slightly earlier arrival. And yes, the surface temps are a few degrees colder because of that, which I alluded to earlier that an earlier arrival would be ideal to keep temps from rising too much Tuesday morning. 18Z GFS has RIC at 33°F when precip arrives around 7-8 am. The 12Z run had temps 36-38°F when the precip arrived around 9-10 am. Nonetheless, looking at the hourly temps, the 18z GFS doesn't have RIC hitting 32°F until around 5 pm. But that doesn't mean it may not hit 32 intrahour under heavy rates. The best rates are from about 10am to 7pm with 1pm to 4pm being the peak. So ratios won't be 10:1 if this is correct. I live near short pump so temps are slightly better NW of city Imagine if that slug of moisture after our initial wave was also snow. We would be talking feet of snow..lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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