RIC Airport Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 14 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: Hey, I tried to go to bat for y'all, and I'm up on the Delmarva! Lol. I've started checking out this thread for analysis that is more relevant to me. The maps they post cut me off to the east the maps you guys post cut me off to the north! LOL. But at least we share the same issues with mixing and temp issues in most storms. We also tend to all cash in at the same time. Usually if I'm getting it, you guys are too. Thank you. I saw your post. It's crazy sometimes in there. But it's been like that for years, even returning to the Eastern days. We are always in a tough spot. Some people think it just can't possibly snow here like the guy pointing out Richmond's average high for the date, which is like 2 degrees warmer than DCA's, as to say our climate is too warm. Also, many stations have daily snowfall records for 2/12 from 1899 because of that massive east coast blizzard that year. RIC's record for that date is higher than that of DCAs. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The 00z GEFS has a 6-7" mean around RIC. Wasn’t that an improvement from 18z GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, Conway7305 said: Wasn’t that an improvement from 18z GEFS? YES! Here are 18z and 12z GEFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 16 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: Hey, I tried to go to bat for y'all, and I'm up on the Delmarva! Lol. I've started checking out this thread for analysis that is more relevant to me. The maps they post cut me off to the east the maps you guys post cut me off to the north! LOL. But at least we share the same issues with mixing and temp issues in most storms. We also tend to all cash in at the same time. Usually if I'm getting it, you guys are too. Thanks for going to bat for us, I know not everyone in that NOVA thread are like that. Several have posted down here wishing us well. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: YES! Here are 18z and 12z GEFS Storm looks stronger and a healthier precip shield. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Thanks for going to bat for us, I know not everyone in that NOVA thread are like that. Several have posted down here wishing us well. Oh absolutely. Just a few people letting snow control their emotions lol. Weathers gonna weather. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 5 hours ago, RVAman said: Here is CBS 6's map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 Euro still favoring north of RIC for heaviest snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Euro still favoring north of RIC for heaviest snows. Damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Damn I have a feeling the GFS will continue to trend farther north, but how much is the question. Accumulations for Richmond are still likely, but 1-3" or 2-4" is probably a good conservative call for now. It all depends on timing and where the heaviest bands set up. An earlier precip arrival Tuesday morning would also help a good deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 5 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: I have a feeling the GFS will continue to trend farther north, but how much is the question. Accumulations for Richmond are still likely, but 1-3" or 2-4" is probably a good conservative call for now. It all depends on timing and where the heaviest bands set up. An earlier precip arrival Tuesday morning would also help a good deal. It’s wild how different the solutions (GFS/Euro) are this close to the event. My guess is between 4-5 inches in Richmond. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Can’t believe I’m up this late…lol 0z EPS shifted S from 18z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6z GFS and NAM held strong 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 GFS has not budged at all, it even came S from overnight runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Is it bad I’m still not convinced? The cutoff line is insanely sharp on both the GFS and Euro. NO room for error during this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Is it safe to say that this storm tue really wont affect the roads regardless what we get? Feb sun angle and 35 degrees doesnt sit will with me with roads caving. Precip doesnt look to be that heavy either. Thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: Is it safe to say that this storm tue really wont affect the roads regardless what we get? Feb sun angle and 35 degrees doesnt sit will with me with roads caving. Precip doesnt look to be that heavy either. Thoughts I doubt they’ll be a big problem as it’ll be a wet snow with no cool down for icing over. Should have moderate snow band early that’ll allow them to cave quicker though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, Sernest14 said: I doubt they’ll be a big problem as it’ll be a wet snow with no cool down for icing over. Should have moderate snow band early that’ll allow them to cave quicker though Hmm I dont see more of the moderate stuff til later on when temps have warmed up. What are you seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, jlewis1111 said: Hmm I dont see more of the moderate stuff til later on when temps have warmed up. What are you seeing? Earlier as in during the first few hours of storm. Gfs and euro both show a good first thump which is where I see the roads being able to cave quicker. If that thump doesn’t happen though then roads shouldn’t be much of an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 NAM coming in with the snow pretty much 10-15 miles North of Richmond while RIC gets rain. Getting fringed is becoming worrisome, again... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Yup nam north. Looks like the North trend has started once again lol smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Precip is definitely there. Just need to temps to drop a hair. Hopefully modeled warmer than they will be and more in line with gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 we are going into the nams target zone and going out of gfs target zone. Thats the problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 That’ll take the air outta the balloon real quick. Here we are again. This hobby really sucks lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 NAM will fluctuate, it’s been all over the place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 I’m gonna throw the towel in until it happens. No more watching models or reading forecasts for me. Hope for the best. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 So even tho 80% of the model runs since Thursday night have been snowy, the individual model runs that fluctuate to less snow are the ones that are right for SOME on here? Got it! Self inflicting mental anguish lol The blend is what matters 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: So even tho 80% of the model runs since Thursday night have been snowy, the individual model runs that fluctuate to less snow are the ones that are right for SOME on here? Got it! Self inflicting mental anguish lol The blend is what matters Clearly what I’m saying is I’m not going to be concerned about it any longer and wait to see what happens. Never did I say it won’t snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 By Tue it will be all rain. North shift always happens due to the SE Ridge. Is what it is. Sucks around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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