TampaMan Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Still highly doubtful the GFS is even close to being realistic. I’ll hold off until I see the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 17 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: A LOT of members show 9+ Euro has been trending S too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 6 hours ago, JB Fins said: Yep, we have lived this since the days on Eastern. Shoot, started there on early 2000's and it was the same then, EURO>GFS>NAM>UKMET>CMC YOU ALWAYS WANT THE EURO IN YOUR CORNER. Yup, I joined Easternuswx back in 2004. It's hard to believe it's been that long. Those were the best days. Since we migrated to AMEX, I feel it hasn't been the same. Also, I agree with this, we really do need to see the Euro come around before I become more confident. I also share @RVAman concerns as with this being 5 days out so much can change. The GFS can quickly shift 40-50 miles farther north, as much as we don't like to hear that. And it's not being a debbie downer, we know around here it's best to be cautious given what tends to happen. On 2/6/2025 at 11:25 AM, wasnow215 said: The issue is comparing Richmond climo to DC lol On 2/6/2025 at 11:35 AM, Stormpc said: Yep. 110 miles SOUTH is huge. Grab all the scraps you can get. Something to watch tho. Historically, DCA has not been that much snowier than RIC, with RIC's annual average trailing behind by 3" for much of the 20th century. However, since about 1990, the gap has widened to about 5" due to a warmer temperature regime. The storms that used to hit NC and VA just don't happen with the regularity that they did from the 1980s and prior. About 60% of RIC's snowstorms correlate with DCA, while the other 40% have a SE connection (RDU/ORF). It's the southern snowstorms that used to only affect NC and VA while sparing the major NE cities that we are falling short on, thus making it more difficult for RIC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 18z Euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 Local map 18z vs 12z, Euro definitely was south this run. Maybe a trend? 12Z EURO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: Local map 18z vs 12z, Euro definitely was south this run. Maybe a trend? 12Z EURO We’ve been fooled by this before. I like the southern trend on the euro. Just have to be cautious because it likes to creep right back up. Especially at the 0z and 18z hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 27 minutes ago, RVAman said: We’ve been fooled by this before. I like the southern trend on the euro. Just have to be cautious because it likes to creep right back up. Especially at the 0z and 18z hours. There was a nice uptick farther south on the 18z EPS compared to the 12z. Time will tell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Well I’ll be damned. The 0z is an absolute beauty for us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 GFS even weaker/MORE south again. Like a southern slider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 3 minutes ago, Stormpc said: GFS even weaker/MORE south again. Like a southern slider. Also looks like 2 separate waves, the first one is warmer with temps around 32-33. However, the 2nd arriving Tuesday night and Wednesday morning is where things really get good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Also looks like 2 separate waves, the first one is warmer with temps around 32-33. However, the 2nd arriving Tuesday night and Wednesday morning is where things really get good. Yeah it looks like it just keeps riding along that boundary as it sinks. That's an interesting looking run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 I should be excited but i just dont see how it will be cold enough for snow unless its the old fashioned 33 and heavy wet snow sticking to everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, ldub23 said: I should be excited but i just dont see how it will be cold enough for snow unless its the old fashioned 33 and heavy wet snow sticking to everything Hard to get excited with a front end thump and know that rain is going to wash it away too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, ldub23 said: I should be excited but i just dont see how it will be cold enough for snow unless its the old fashioned 33 and heavy wet snow sticking to everything Enjoy it and go to bed because that's a Newport News dream run. Turn off your phone and computer and check back tomorrow. You can't get better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, chris624wx said: Hard to get excited with a front end thump and know that rain is going to wash it away too. Any thump is better than no thump, lol 2 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Enjoy it and go to bed because that's a Newport News dream run. Turn off your phone and computer and check back tomorrow. You can't get better than that. Take some valium and wake up Tues am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 5 minutes ago, chris624wx said: Hard to get excited with a front end thump and know that rain is going to wash it away too. If those totals verify that rain is not washing away all of that. Now if it’s nearly 50 degrees yeah it’s gone. At least we can likely prepare for a day off Tuesday / Wednesday possibly Thursday for now. (Well remote work for me) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Never thought Id say this but S trend needs to stop…I’m live near short pump .lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Never thought Id say this but S trend needs to stop…I’m live near short pump .lol Keep trucking south. Another 50 miles! You'll still be on the northern side of the best banding and forcing so you'll be good. I need to wet my beak a little bit. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 AIFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: AIFS Canadian also caved -very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Let’s see what the king says shortly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 52 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: AIFS 47 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Canadian also caved -very nice 39 minutes ago, RVAman said: Let’s see what the king says shortly. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: Looks like Euro caving to GFS each run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Looks like Euro caving to GFS each run it would be even better is surface temps were colder, RIC is 33-34F for the whole event. Would need to rely on heavy rates before temps at 850mb rise above 0C toward Tuesday evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: it would be even better is surface temps were colder, RIC is 33-34F for the whole event. Would need to rely on heavy rates before temps at 850mb rise above 0C toward Tuesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 It's too bad when I get back from NYC Thursday evening, it'll be melted by rain and temperatures in the 50s. But, hopefully the wet snow piles up beforehand. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 6z GFS is solid. Nam is way N but it’s the NAM and too far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 GFS Model – MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 12z GFS Solid!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 25 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: 12z GFS Solid!!!! It is indeed for the Richmond area. Although there are still many signs that the heaviest accumulations will be north of Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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