Stormpc Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 5:18 AM, wasnow215 said: Ensembles even better!! GFS 0z. Wake up! Lol Expand Im not optimistic for much frozen anywhere south of a Fredericksburg/Charlottesville/Lexington line...for the remainder of the month...IMO. Hopefully wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Thunderstorm in Richmond, currently 34 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Some really nice thunder!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 12:34 PM, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said: Thunderstorm in Richmond, currently 34 degrees. Expand Nobody thought it was going to be icy today for there to be a winter weather advisory is nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 12:13 PM, Stormpc said: Im not optimistic for much frozen anywhere south of a Fredericksburg/Charlottesville/Lexington line...for the remainder of the month...IMO. Hopefully wrong. Expand The whole month? Even when the NAO goes negative possibly after 2/19 or whenever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 1:05 PM, wasnow215 said: The whole month? Even when the NAO goes negative possibly after 2/19 or whenever? Expand Yes I think early March there's a chance but with only a week left after the predicted-NAO, February is probably toast. There's a chance one of these systems goes far enough South to give areas a front end thump, but when's the last time we really had one of those? Not trying to be a downer but I don't think it's looking that great the next 3 weeks at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Yeah, I am down. I just feel like when I posted a few days ago, we have seen this movie over and over. Jackpot zone only to have the models get a better handle on things and we end up fringed, mixing or just plain rain. 34 degrees and a thunderstorm in RVA just sums it up. Or last week's rain on Jan. 31st, just a waste of precipitation. I hope I am wrong but this way I am pleasantly surprised if anything good happens, otherwise I am dubious. I am also one of those jerks that when it's March, I just rather have spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 We need a -NAO to have a better opportunity. Some show it dipping but a majority are neutral/positive. This index does tend to change so will see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 12z ICON a nice hit next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 3:49 PM, Conway7305 said: 12z ICON a nice hit next week Expand 12z GFS much snowier and icier than 6z also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 I dunno, looks like the GFS threw us some scraps, 2", while DC gets 1996 totals. Seems about on track for our playbook. Damn, I gotta stop being so Eeyore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 4:23 PM, JB Fins said: I dunno, looks like the GFS threw us some scraps, 2", while DC gets 1996 totals. Seems about on track for our playbook. Damn, I gotta stop being so Eeyore. Expand The issue is comparing Richmond climo to DC lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 4:25 PM, wasnow215 said: The issue is comparing Richmond climo to DC lol Expand Yep. 110 miles SOUTH is huge. Grab all the scraps you can get. Something to watch tho. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 It looks like frozen/mix/snow line is further S on this run. Here is a snow depth forecast trend from 6 to 12z on GFS. This also includes sleet. Hopefully S trend will continue. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 5:16 PM, Conway7305 said: It looks like frozen/mix/snow line is further S on this run. Here is a snow depth forecast trend from 6 to 12z on GFS. This also includes sleet. Hopefully S trend will continue. Expand Yes that's what I was saying about snowier and icier! Let's see how this trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Ensembles excellent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 5:38 PM, wasnow215 said: Ensembles excellent Expand Do ensembles account for sleet and freezing rain? Notice they list as 10:1 vs kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Euro still has rain/sn line in NOVA but it did make small shifts south from 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 As much as I hate to say it, sadly we will likely only getting cold rain. Maybe a brief wintery mix to start. Meh. Not to be a Debi downer but I just don’t see it this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 9:04 PM, RVAman said: As much as I hate to say it, sadly we will likely only getting cold rain. Maybe a brief wintery mix to start. Meh. Not to be a Debi downer but I just don’t see it this time. Expand Do you hate to say it???? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 I keep saying this and it frustrates us all the same: Models show about 10 days out an epic solution, we grab hold to it and watch it disappear right before our eyes. I do think next week northern parts of the AKQ area-Louisa, Caroline, Fluvanna areas may sneak in a couple inches of snow and ice but even there rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 9:25 PM, JFLETCHER said: I keep saying this and it frustrates us all the same: Models show about 10 days out an epic solution, we grab hold to it and watch it disappear right before our eyes. I do think next week northern parts of the AKQ area-Louisa, Caroline, Fluvanna areas may sneak in a couple inches of snow and ice but even there rain. Expand This is what I’m getting at. Getting excited and posting weenie maps in our region 7-10 days before the event is asking to deflate hopes. Yes, I do hate saying it. I want snow, everyone does. The realistic truth is that we are not in the best position anymore and it quite literally takes a miracle to get a decent 6+ inch event here. We haven’t had 8+ inches in over 7 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 9:56 PM, RVAman said: This is what I’m getting at. Getting excited and posting weenie maps in our region 7-10 days before the event is asking to deflate hopes. Yes, I do hate saying it. I want snow, everyone does. The realistic truth is that we are not in the best position anymore and it quite literally takes a miracle to get a decent 6+ inch event here. We haven’t had 8+ inches in over 7 years. Expand I agree with your sentiments. I do think though that the far northern areas of AKQ-Wakefield-like the areas I mentioned above (Caroline/Western Hanover/Fluvanna) do cash in many times while just to our south, Richmond and vicinity get nothing. Seems to me that south of Ashland, it gets really HARD to get a good snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 I agree, next weeks storm looks like a fail and will probably trend warm for us. Im hoping 2/15- 2/16 is our storm if the block is real and gets going by then. The EURO AI was a nice hit and the ensembles have a decent look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 We're just not going to do well all the down here on the coast with transient highs and no blocking . That's why I've been checked out the past few weeks haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 9:56 PM, RVAman said: This is what I’m getting at. Getting excited and posting weenie maps in our region 7-10 days before the event is asking to deflate hopes. Yes, I do hate saying it. I want snow, everyone does. The realistic truth is that we are not in the best position anymore and it quite literally takes a miracle to get a decent 6+ inch event here. We haven’t had 8+ inches in over 7 years. Expand I was messing with you -I have had 7 1/2 inches of snow here in Southwestern Chesterfield Co. Lasted for WEEKS bc of the cold and the fact I live on the shady side of the street lol. it was the best January I've seen in this area in at least several years. How many double digit snowstorms has there been ever in the history of Richmond? 10? 12? Since records have been kept? I think we can score 2-4" of pure snow before sleet etc Tuesday. I'm looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 10:45 PM, wasnow215 said: I was messing with you -I have had 7 1/2 inches of snow here in Southwestern Chesterfield Co. Lasted for WEEKS bc of the cold and the fact I live on the shady side of the street lol. it was the best January I've seen in this area in at least several years. How many double digit snowstorms has there been ever in the history of Richmond? 10? 12? Since records have been kept? I think we can score 2-4" of pure snow before sleet etc Tuesday. I'm looking forward to it. Expand I’d like to agree with you but I am highly doubtful we see anything more than a dusting. Like I said, not trying to be a downer. I’m just relying on the last few months / years of the same occurrences happening over and over again. Don’t be shocked to see it ALL shift even well above DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 11:04 PM, RVAman said: I’d like to agree with you but I am highly doubtful we see anything more than a dusting. Like I said, not trying to be a downer. I’m just relying on the last few months / years of the same occurrences happening over and over again. Don’t be shocked to see it ALL shift even well above DC. Expand What about my snow I got here? Haha-the one Sunday night into Monday and then the late Friday into Saturday within 6 days. It was terrific! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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