Sernest14 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Gfs also shows anywhere from .6-1” of ice on top of the 14” of snow (Ashland) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 10 minutes ago, JFLETCHER said: I really don't want to be a debbie-downer but I just have that gut feeling that this will all trend north. 18z GFS is a beauty for Central VA though. 100% what’s gonna happen lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, RVAman said: 100% what’s gonna happen lol i agree unfortunately but let’s hope it doesn’t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, Sernest14 said: Gfs also shows anywhere from .6-1” of ice on top of the 14” of snow (Ashland) If you look close it's really two parts according to this run of the GFS. Central Virginia does really well with the first part and then more mixing with the second part but it's still massive altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 If the NAO Forecast can go negative quicker, it can help with suppression. Doesn’t look to go negative until around 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 12z AIFS still solid 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 I know, why do I always feel like we need Raleigh in the bullseye this far out? Maybe Lucy let's us kick the ball this time. Feeling lucky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Eagles win Sunday and snow wins Monday through Wednesday!! Let's gooooooooo!! Go Birds!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Way too quiet in here. I understand not totally buying in but cmon FOLKS there's a shot here at something big! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Ensembles were a step back tonight. R/S line further N. Lots of time though to adjust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 18 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Ensembles were a step back tonight. R/S line further N. Lots of time though to adjust. Small step Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 0z GFS was Better run for us in Richmond 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Yall get curb stomped. 2 separate storms 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, stormtracker said: Yall get curb stomped. 2 separate storms Appreciate you lookin out for us. Looks good for all of us! RVA and DC area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Appreciate you lookin out for us. Looks good for all of us! RVA and DC area! 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yall get curb stomped. 2 separate storms Thanks for looking out bud! i hope it pans out for everyone including the NOVA folks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 ugh, brutal n shift. Even DC gets shafted except for ice. Trough digging more out W is bringing back the SER. :/ I need to stop posting snow maps 7+ days out…lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Yep just like that it all shifted north. Pattern not there for what models were showing. Probably be mainly rain at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 The NAO was forecasted to dip negative quicker a few days ago but is delaying transition so no true block to keep storm south. I don’t understand why even medium range models can’t pick up on this until now. Unless the pattern changes, looks like it will be a a couple weeks before we see NAO dip negative 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: The NAO was forecasted to dip negative quicker a few days ago but is delaying transition so no true block to keep storm south. I don’t understand why even medium range models can’t pick up on this until now. Unless the pattern changes, looks like it will be a a couple weeks before we see NAO dip negative Good point-the guy is annoying sometimes but DT has said it won't go negative until after 2/20. Models were trying to prove him wrong but looking like they are now coming in line for more rain than anything else. Even northern areas aren't assured anything at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 hours ago, Conway7305 said: ugh, brutal n shift. Even DC gets shafted except for ice. Trough digging more out W is bringing back the SER. :/ I need to stop posting snow maps 7+ days out…lol We do? Because it's mostly snow up here on the 6z. And again, it's too early for doom and gloom. I honestly think we are all still in the game. It's just too early to bail or be down about models. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: We do? Because it's mostly snow up here on the 6z. And again, it's too early for doom and gloom. I honestly think we are all still in the game. It's just too early to bail or be down about models. Yeah, 6z GFS was good for NOVA. I was primarily looking at the 0z Euro pushing snow up into MD/PA. I agree, I shouldn’t doom and gloom but it’s just frustrating when ensembles down this way start trending in wrong direction and we go from 30 inches to .5 in 2 runs on operational basically. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 12z gfs was close with thermals but really good altogether with frozen! And still that 2 part storm! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 It's really all up to Dr. No, if memory serves, and given my age it has been spotty lately, the GFS has been jackpotting us only to cave, not totally, but enough, to the Euro. Would love for GFS to score a coup but history, and this season, suggests we need some Euro love to score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 37 minutes ago, JB Fins said: It's really all up to Dr. No, if memory serves, and given my age it has been spotty lately, the GFS has been jackpotting us only to cave, not totally, but enough, to the Euro. Would love for GFS to score a coup but history, and this season, suggests we need some Euro love to score. Well? Lol-nobody posted any maps anywhere lol. They are saying on the main thread that it's pushed south but how far? Sorry I literally voice texted this at a red light lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 12z euro OP still well north…waiting on EPS. GFS nice hit with Storm #1 who knows. …lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, Conway7305 said: 12z euro OP still well north…waiting on EPS. GFS nice hit with Storm #1 who knows. …lol It's actually better for RVA than 0z. 0z had no snow at all here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Gfs wasn't terrible at 18z-cmon now folks lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 0z GFS was solid for next week midweek! I'm trying to figure out if folks on this thread are disinterested or 'Deb'in out lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Ensembles even better!! GFS 0z. Wake up! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6 hours ago, wasnow215 said: Ensembles even better!! GFS 0z. Wake up! Lol I saw overnight and 6z gives a front end thump before changeover, euro still is way north, I’ll get more excited when both are on same page. After next week looks like LR is a bunch of rainmakers for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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