RIC Airport Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 On 1/22/2025 at 1:16 PM, chris624wx said: Another bay streamer moving through VB right now. Such a cool phenomenon! Not sure if you've seen, but AKQ wrote about bay effect snow somewhat extensively in their recent event summer. https://www.weather.gov/akq/jan21_22_2025_winterstorm 19 hours ago, Conway7305 said: I hear ya, Nothing to track I've been getting caught up on so much. It looks like it's going to be that way at least through 2/10 or 2/15. Also, quite a few days in the mid and upper 60s, and even a few 70s are popping up from time to time on the OP runs for the end of next week. The warm temps these last few days of January will be enough to prevent RIC from finishing in the top 10 coldest January on record. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2025013006&fh=246 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaGirl Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 If we can't get snow at least give us some decent rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 14 hours ago, CentralVaGirl said: If we can't get snow at least give us some decent rain! Pretty good rain so far!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 0Z Operational Euro shows several snow events getting into February. Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Gotta love the 18z AIFS….lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 9 hours ago, Conway7305 said: Gotta love the 18z AIFS….lol Regular Euro was a great hit for 2/12-2/13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 2 hours ago, wasnow215 said: Regular Euro was a great hit for 2/12-2/13 I saw that! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Not bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 2 Author Share Posted February 2 On 2/1/2025 at 9:52 AM, Conway7305 said: 0Z Operational Euro shows several snow events getting into February. Not bad 5 hours ago, wasnow215 said: Regular Euro was a great hit for 2/12-2/13 2 hours ago, Conway7305 said: Not bad 12Z GFS throwing a bone today. The setup remind me of PD II (February 14-18, 2003). That storm ended up being a letdown because what was supposed to be a 12-18" storm for metro Richmond and a sleet fest for Hampton Roads was mainly sleet for Richmond and rain for Hampton Roads. But this looks similar to forecasts leading up to that event. Obviously, we hope a carbon copy of that scenario doesn't pan out this time, and we get a snowier event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 48 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 12Z GFS throwing a bone today. The setup remind me of PD II (February 14-18, 2003). That storm ended up being a letdown because what was supposed to be a 12-18" storm for metro Richmond and a sleet fest for Hampton Roads was mainly sleet for Richmond and rain for Hampton Roads. But this looks similar to forecasts leading up to that event. Obviously, we hope a carbon copy of that scenario doesn't pan out this time, and we get a snowier event. I love that comparison! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 2 Author Share Posted February 2 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: I love that comparison! 12Z Euro also has the storm for the middle of next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 2 Author Share Posted February 2 13 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: I love that comparison! As with the 2003 storm, we would rely on cold air arriving and how deep it gets. And like we saw two Sundays ago, sometimes it can be slow and not arrive in time. Something to watch in future run. I'll be in NYC from the 10th to 13th so I might miss this storm unless it hits up there. I'm also headed to Chicago tomorrow and won't return until Thursday night so I won't be able to post every model run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: As with the 2003 storm, we would rely on cold air arriving and how deep it gets. And like we saw two Sundays ago, sometimes it can be slow and not arrive in time. Something to watch in future run. I'll be in NYC from the 10th to 13th so I might miss this storm unless it hits up there. I'm also headed to Chicago tomorrow and won't return until Thursday night so I won't be able to post every model run. I was living in western Cape May Co and leading up to the storm could only rely on the weather channel throughout the week because I didn't have the tools that we have now lol. Had a inch and a half of snow on Friday and by that same time it was clear where I live was gonna get at least 18 inches of snow and it was pouring snow that Sunday morning the day before Presidents' Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 It’s a little bit far out, but it’s impressive to see both the GFS and the Euro show the storm next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 3 hours ago, RIC Airport said: 12Z GFS throwing a bone today. The setup remind me of PD II (February 14-18, 2003). That storm ended up being a letdown because what was supposed to be a 12-18" storm for metro Richmond and a sleet fest for Hampton Roads was mainly sleet for Richmond and rain for Hampton Roads. But this looks similar to forecasts leading up to that event. Obviously, we hope a carbon copy of that scenario doesn't pan out this time, and we get a snowier event. If those totals verified, would break the all-time snow record in Richmond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 I’m surprised nobody else is on this thread talking it up after todays runs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 6 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: I’m surprised nobody else is on this thread talking it up after todays runs Great signals too apparently with MJO, etc right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 4 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Great signals too apparently with MJO, etc right? Yep, forecast now for MJO to go into 8/1. -NAO, -AO, -EPO all forecast to be in favorable spots by 2nd week of Feb or Mid Feb, the wild card is the PNA index. Ideally, we need a +PNA but sometimes not if other indexes are in good spots. PNA can be slightly negative or neutral it still could work out for us. Right now now PNA is negative and may go to neutral. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 It's still too far out for me to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 NOVA is in best spot right now for ensemble runs but there is plenty of time for things to trend better for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 I was in NY for 2/03. Heaviest snow I’ve ever seen, ended with 28”. Pattern looks exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 2 Author Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, JFLETCHER said: It's still too far out for me to get excited. Agreed. And This is a very topsy turvy pattern coming, with cold and moisture coming in between warm air masses. Euro has RIC in the 70s 2 days before the storm and it warms up considerably right afterwards especially in SE VA before getting very cold again. So much can go wrong. Also, remember two Sundays ago when the cold air never arrived in time, even busted for DC. Subtle changes can make huge differences in who gets what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 2 Author Share Posted February 2 3 hours ago, wasnow215 said: I was living in western Cape May Co and leading up to the storm could only rely on the weather channel throughout the week because I didn't have the tools that we have now lol. Had a inch and a half of snow on Friday and by that same time it was clear where I live was gonna get at least 18 inches of snow and it was pouring snow that Sunday morning the day before Presidents' Day 31 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said: I was in NY for 2/03. Heaviest snow I’ve ever seen, ended with 28”. Pattern looks exciting Although it was an impactful event for us, it was very disappointing that the huge totals didnt verify. RIC was 20°F during the height of the event. Meanwhile, PHF, just 60 miles SE, was close to 60°F. No wonder we mixed with such a gradient. Sleet even made it as far north as DCA and cut into their totals; although they still do exceptionally well, I think, something around 16". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: Although it was an impactful event for us, it was very disappointing that the huge totals didnt verify. RIC was 20°F during the height of the event. Meanwhile, PHF, just 60 miles SE, was close to 60°F. No wonder we mixed with such a gradient. Sleet even made it as far north as DCA and cut into their totals; although they still do exceptionally well, I think, something around 16". It ended as sleet for us even as far north as New Jersey because the storm was so strong it was pulling warm air in from the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 0z EPS snowfall mean for next week, not bad 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 It seems like everything is just cutting just a little bit too far north and west of us for anything significant next week. I'm sure there's plenty of time to change but we rarely see it change to colder right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 hour ago, wasnow215 said: It seems like everything is just cutting just a little bit too far north and west of us for anything significant next week. I'm sure there's plenty of time to change but we rarely see it change to colder right? If NAO is more negative that will help suppress things 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 44 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: If NAO is more negative that will help suppress things Do you have any ideas how you think it'll play outwith the NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 54 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Do you have any ideas how you think it'll play outwith the NAO? Not quite sure but here is the index forecast. Want the index to go negative. Looking like it will be closer to neutral slightly positive based off todays data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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