Ephesians2 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 On 1/23/2025 at 10:55 AM, RIC Airport said: RIC hit 9°F this morning, the first time reaching the single digits since 12/24/2022. Also of note, through yesterday, January 2025 ranked as the 6th coldest on record. Although there was no extreme cold from a historical standpoint, it was just a persistent cold since the beginning of the month. There are about 8 days left, and with warmer temperatures, the current ranking will rise. Even if this month doesn't finish in the top 10 coldest, it will still be the coldest January since 2004 or possibly even 1988. Norfolk also has been experiencing its coldest January since 1985 so far and will likely end as the coldest January since 2011 or 2003. Where is that chart on the NWS website? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, Ephesians2 said: Where is that chart on the NWS website? Thanks! https://scacis.rcc-acis.org/ Also, the below site is good for historical hourly observations. https://weatherspark.com/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 *crickets* ;( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 hours ago, RVAman said: *crickets* ;( I hear ya, Nothing to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Oddly enough, we will probably be hearing them for real... soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Here is the extended snow outlook on EPS weeklies…Just for a little hope…..lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 On 1/22/2025 at 1:16 PM, chris624wx said: Another bay streamer moving through VB right now. Such a cool phenomenon! Not sure if you've seen, but AKQ wrote about bay effect snow somewhat extensively in their recent event summer. https://www.weather.gov/akq/jan21_22_2025_winterstorm 19 hours ago, Conway7305 said: I hear ya, Nothing to track I've been getting caught up on so much. It looks like it's going to be that way at least through 2/10 or 2/15. Also, quite a few days in the mid and upper 60s, and even a few 70s are popping up from time to time on the OP runs for the end of next week. The warm temps these last few days of January will be enough to prevent RIC from finishing in the top 10 coldest January on record. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted Thursday at 12:33 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:33 PM https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2025013006&fh=246 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaGirl Posted Thursday at 11:44 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:44 PM If we can't get snow at least give us some decent rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted Friday at 01:49 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:49 PM 14 hours ago, CentralVaGirl said: If we can't get snow at least give us some decent rain! Pretty good rain so far!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Saturday at 02:52 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:52 PM 0Z Operational Euro shows several snow events getting into February. Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Sunday at 02:23 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:23 AM Gotta love the 18z AIFS….lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Sunday at 11:27 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:27 AM 9 hours ago, Conway7305 said: Gotta love the 18z AIFS….lol Regular Euro was a great hit for 2/12-2/13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Sunday at 02:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:02 PM 2 hours ago, wasnow215 said: Regular Euro was a great hit for 2/12-2/13 I saw that! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Sunday at 02:06 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:06 PM Not bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Sunday at 05:00 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 05:00 PM On 2/1/2025 at 9:52 AM, Conway7305 said: 0Z Operational Euro shows several snow events getting into February. Not bad 5 hours ago, wasnow215 said: Regular Euro was a great hit for 2/12-2/13 2 hours ago, Conway7305 said: Not bad 12Z GFS throwing a bone today. The setup remind me of PD II (February 14-18, 2003). That storm ended up being a letdown because what was supposed to be a 12-18" storm for metro Richmond and a sleet fest for Hampton Roads was mainly sleet for Richmond and rain for Hampton Roads. But this looks similar to forecasts leading up to that event. Obviously, we hope a carbon copy of that scenario doesn't pan out this time, and we get a snowier event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Sunday at 05:49 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:49 PM 48 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 12Z GFS throwing a bone today. The setup remind me of PD II (February 14-18, 2003). That storm ended up being a letdown because what was supposed to be a 12-18" storm for metro Richmond and a sleet fest for Hampton Roads was mainly sleet for Richmond and rain for Hampton Roads. But this looks similar to forecasts leading up to that event. Obviously, we hope a carbon copy of that scenario doesn't pan out this time, and we get a snowier event. I love that comparison! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Sunday at 05:51 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 05:51 PM 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: I love that comparison! 12Z Euro also has the storm for the middle of next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Sunday at 06:00 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 06:00 PM 13 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: I love that comparison! As with the 2003 storm, we would rely on cold air arriving and how deep it gets. And like we saw two Sundays ago, sometimes it can be slow and not arrive in time. Something to watch in future run. I'll be in NYC from the 10th to 13th so I might miss this storm unless it hits up there. I'm also headed to Chicago tomorrow and won't return until Thursday night so I won't be able to post every model run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Sunday at 07:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:41 PM 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: As with the 2003 storm, we would rely on cold air arriving and how deep it gets. And like we saw two Sundays ago, sometimes it can be slow and not arrive in time. Something to watch in future run. I'll be in NYC from the 10th to 13th so I might miss this storm unless it hits up there. I'm also headed to Chicago tomorrow and won't return until Thursday night so I won't be able to post every model run. I was living in western Cape May Co and leading up to the storm could only rely on the weather channel throughout the week because I didn't have the tools that we have now lol. Had a inch and a half of snow on Friday and by that same time it was clear where I live was gonna get at least 18 inches of snow and it was pouring snow that Sunday morning the day before Presidents' Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Sunday at 08:10 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:10 PM It’s a little bit far out, but it’s impressive to see both the GFS and the Euro show the storm next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Sunday at 08:11 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:11 PM 3 hours ago, RIC Airport said: 12Z GFS throwing a bone today. The setup remind me of PD II (February 14-18, 2003). That storm ended up being a letdown because what was supposed to be a 12-18" storm for metro Richmond and a sleet fest for Hampton Roads was mainly sleet for Richmond and rain for Hampton Roads. But this looks similar to forecasts leading up to that event. Obviously, we hope a carbon copy of that scenario doesn't pan out this time, and we get a snowier event. If those totals verified, would break the all-time snow record in Richmond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Sunday at 08:12 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:12 PM I’m surprised nobody else is on this thread talking it up after todays runs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Sunday at 08:19 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:19 PM 6 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: I’m surprised nobody else is on this thread talking it up after todays runs Great signals too apparently with MJO, etc right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Sunday at 08:39 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:39 PM 4 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Great signals too apparently with MJO, etc right? Yep, forecast now for MJO to go into 8/1. -NAO, -AO, -EPO all forecast to be in favorable spots by 2nd week of Feb or Mid Feb, the wild card is the PNA index. Ideally, we need a +PNA but sometimes not if other indexes are in good spots. PNA can be slightly negative or neutral it still could work out for us. Right now now PNA is negative and may go to neutral. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted Sunday at 09:05 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:05 PM It's still too far out for me to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Sunday at 09:38 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:38 PM NOVA is in best spot right now for ensemble runs but there is plenty of time for things to trend better for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted Sunday at 10:12 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:12 PM I was in NY for 2/03. Heaviest snow I’ve ever seen, ended with 28”. Pattern looks exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Sunday at 10:41 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 10:41 PM 1 hour ago, JFLETCHER said: It's still too far out for me to get excited. Agreed. And This is a very topsy turvy pattern coming, with cold and moisture coming in between warm air masses. Euro has RIC in the 70s 2 days before the storm and it warms up considerably right afterwards especially in SE VA before getting very cold again. So much can go wrong. Also, remember two Sundays ago when the cold air never arrived in time, even busted for DC. Subtle changes can make huge differences in who gets what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Sunday at 10:46 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 10:46 PM 3 hours ago, wasnow215 said: I was living in western Cape May Co and leading up to the storm could only rely on the weather channel throughout the week because I didn't have the tools that we have now lol. Had a inch and a half of snow on Friday and by that same time it was clear where I live was gonna get at least 18 inches of snow and it was pouring snow that Sunday morning the day before Presidents' Day 31 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said: I was in NY for 2/03. Heaviest snow I’ve ever seen, ended with 28”. Pattern looks exciting Although it was an impactful event for us, it was very disappointing that the huge totals didnt verify. RIC was 20°F during the height of the event. Meanwhile, PHF, just 60 miles SE, was close to 60°F. No wonder we mixed with such a gradient. Sleet even made it as far north as DCA and cut into their totals; although they still do exceptionally well, I think, something around 16". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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